汶川震区山洪灾害场次洪水最大携沙量预测模型

汶川地震后,震区产生了大量松散堆积体,受强降水影响产生了破坏性更强的山洪灾害,加剧了灾害的危险性,增加了灾害防治的困难度,研究震区山洪灾害可为评估灾害的风险性及后续的管理提供依据。本研究以66处历史山洪灾害作为样本数据,进行可量算影响因子的相关性分析,揭示山洪灾害的携沙量影响机制,确定流域面积、主沟长度、相对高差、物源量四个影响因子作为主控因子,基于SPSS进行非线性回归分析,建立了基于场次洪水最大携沙量及最大携沙距离的估算模型,并选取了汶川县和都江堰市的共23处山洪水沙灾害数据进行了模型的验证且与其他模型对比。结果表明,本研究建立的模型可靠性好,精度更高。研究成果有助于预测汶川震区潜在的山洪水沙灾害区域,为山洪水沙灾害的风险评估提供依据。

课程思政视角下地球物理学专业认识实习教学实践

在地球物理学专业认识实习课程中提炼和挖掘课程思政元素,把专业教育和思想品德教育有机地结合起来,特别是在汶川地震遗址现场讲解专业知识的同时,挖掘抗震救灾过程中涌现的可歌可泣的故事,使学生树立“万众一心、众志成城,不畏艰险、百折不挠,以人为本、尊重科学”的抗震救灾精神,使学生认识到学好地球物理学不仅是专业人才培养目标的需求,更是社会使命的需要,从而激发学生热爱专业、学好专业。实现专业课程思政与思政教育同向同行的立德树人协同目标。

预滑活动可能是地震前兆异常远程关联的物理机理

关注地震前兆异常的远程关联现象,有助于准确预测未来震中位置。2008年汶川M_(W)7.9地震发生前,大约在2008年3月20日前后,华北地块区及次级地块准同步发生了预滑活动。临震前1天,在冀鲁和鲁东黄海地块上,有10个地震台的水位仪、形变仪、地面和井下气压计记录到低频震颤震相Tp,且在地域和时间上与华北地块的预滑活动及此次汶川M_(W)7.9地震的发生相关性较好。推测认为,可能是华北地块区及次级地块在地幔热物质对流力的驱动下发生的震前预滑活动,地下气体逸出激发低频震颤,形成此次汶川M_(W)7.9地震前兆异常的远程关联现象。在数千千米尺度上的预滑活动,可能是地震前兆远程关联的物理机理,厘清异常位置(震中附近或远程关联),对作好未来震中预测具有重要作用。

青川刨地里地震滑坡发育特征及其成因机制探讨

以“5·12”汶川地震诱发的青川县刨地里滑坡为例,现场调查了滑坡的地质特征,并基于离散元软件(UDEC)分析了1号滑坡动力响应及变形破坏过程,探讨了滑坡的成因机制。现场调查表明,刨地里1号滑坡具有近水平“上硬下软”的地层结构,其中石坎断层穿过了滑坡后缘;滑坡堆积体的岩性分带特征表明,刨地里1号滑坡下部千枚岩先于上部硅质岩被破坏,且破坏时间早于2号和3号滑坡;数值模拟研究揭示,峰值加速度放大效应在断层带附近的千枚岩内最强,其放大系数达6.79,导致下层千枚岩首先沿陡倾面产生拉裂破坏,随后上层硅质岩体产生拉裂破坏,结果与现场调查堆积物特征较吻合;断层和上硬下软的地层结构对刨地里滑坡动力响应、变形及破坏起到了控制作用。该研究可为上硬下软且含断层的地震滑坡的评价提供参考。

Analysis of debris flow control effect and hazard assessment in Xinqiao Gully,Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake area based on numerical simulation

Xinqiao Gully is located in the area of the 2008 Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province,China.Based on the investigation of the 2023"6-26"Xinqiao Gully debris flow event,this study assessed the effectiveness of the debris flow control project and evaluated the debris flow hazards.Through field investigation and numerical simulation methods,the indicators of flow intensity reduction rate and storage capacity fullness were proposed to quantify the effectiveness of the engineering measures in the debris flow event.The simulation results show that the debris flow control project reduced the flow intensity by41.05%to 64.61%.The storage capacity of the dam decreases gradually from upstream to the mouth of the gully,thus effectively intercepting and controlling the debris flow.By evaluating the debris flow of different recurrence intervals,further measures are recommended for managing debris flow events.

岷江上游汶川地震前后泥石流易发性评价

科学准确地绘制泥石流易发性区划图以及确定主控因子及其贡献率,是区域泥石流预警预报和风险管理的重要基础。文章以岷江上游为研究区,以小流域为评价单元,分别采用了5种机器学习模型构建了泥石流易发性评价模型,对汶川大地震前、后岷江上游泥石流易发性和评价因子贡献率进行了定量分析。结果表明:(1)集成机器学习模型的预测精度及受试者工作特征曲线下面积值均高于浅层机器学习模型,其中随机森林模型在地震前、后泥石流易发性评价中表现最优;(2)震前、震后泥石流发生率均随易发性等级的提高逐渐增大,且等级越高增量越大,各等级震后泥石流发生率均高于震前;(3)地震前、后侵蚀传递系数的贡献率均显著高于其他因子,与汶川大地震地震烈度空间分布特征叠加,加大了震后干流和支流泥石流由下游向上游发育程度逐渐降低的空间分布规律。

2008年M_(W)7.9汶川地震早期余震频度衰减速率空间分布特征分析

深入认识余震频度衰减及其影响因素对理解余震触发机理和震后应急救援具有重要意义.然而,由于强震后余震数量庞大,波形相互叠加导致了目录中余震缺失,进而影响了余震频度衰减速率的估计.本研究采用模板匹配技术对2008年M_(W)7.9汶川地震后约50天内连续数据进行扫描,检测余震数量约为模板地震数量的5倍,完备震级由M3.0降低到M2.3.根据余震沿映秀—北川断裂走向优势深度分布的变化,以映秀、汶川、茂县、北川、南坝为界,余震活动大致可分为6个区域.本研究利用最大似然法分别计算了各个区域的余震频度衰减速率,结果显示:以茂县、青川为界,余震频度衰减速率表现出映秀—北川断裂西南段较快、中间段居中、东北段较慢的特征.将余震频度衰减速率和余震空间分布、断裂类型、震后形变、同震形变等进行对比分析,本研究得到以下结论:1、余震频度衰减速率分区与断裂类型分区吻合.其中,映秀—北川断裂西南段余震频度较快衰减速率区域断裂以逆冲为主,中间段为经过各种震源机制类型交替出现的过渡带,映秀—北川断裂东北段余震频度较慢衰减速率区域断裂以右旋走滑为主;2、余震频度衰减速率西南段较快、东北段较慢的空间分布特征与震后形变特征相一致;3、余震频度衰减速率与同震形变相关性不强.结合本研究观测到的同震滑移量较大区域余震分布较少、部分区域余震数目和震后形变空间分布一致性等特征,我们推测汶川地震早期余震可能主要与震后余滑相关,余震频度衰减速率的空间分布差异主要与不同类型断裂震间滑移速率不同相关,震间滑移速率较快的区域余震频度衰减速率较快及震后形变较大.

基于遥感解译的典型强震区泥石流物源发育及演化--以四川都汶高速沿线为例

四川都汶高速位于2008年汶川地震强震区内,震后泥石流灾害异常活跃,对人类财产造成严重损失、人居安全构成重大威胁。为了查清山体斜坡物源空间分布规律,探讨汶川震区泥石流物源成因,选择区内震前DEM、震后Landsat TM多波段融合数据及典型泥石流沟2期全色波段遥感数据,进行泥石流物源发育特征及演化分析。结果表明:①汶川地震强震区物源发育受地形坡向、坡度、高程及水系的共同控制。在坡向上具有背坡面放大效应和逆冲(错动)方向放大效应,高程和坡度选择与山体斜坡发育的动力过程相关;②地震能量释放是物源发育基础,建立了强震区物源发育密度与地震烈度的指数关系模型,并认为研究区断层的存在可能促进了泥石流物源的进一步发育;③物源演化具有面积缩小、大型物源解体为多个小型物源、小型物源汇聚而致规模增大、物源迁移、出现新物源等特征。

汶川强震区震裂山体分布特征与成灾模式研究

为研究2008年汶川8.0级地震强震区震裂山体灾害的分布特征及其成灾模式,首先基于植被退化趋势法和全球地表类型覆盖图等多源数据融合方法对研究区震裂山体进行识别,建立了124处典型震裂山体灾害点数据集。分析表明:震裂山体分布特征与地震的峰值加速度(PGA)等值线和断层距呈现高度正相关性,受高程放大效应和地形影响,85.48%的灾害点发育于泥石流沟域内,同时94.35%的震裂山体来源于同震滑坡后缘的持续变形;震裂山体主要成灾模式包括高位震裂山体高速崩滑碎屑流、高位震裂山体崩滑铲刮侵蚀型泥石流和高位震裂山体多点崩滑堵溃型泥石流三种灾害链。研究结果对强震区震裂山体灾害的全面识别和综合防治及强震区工程规划具有一定参考价值。

基于非线性回归的暴雨泥石流堵河预测

堵河型泥石流灾害在汶川震区较为常见,其链式灾害效应严重威胁到了区域内人民的生命财产安全。故准确预测泥石流堵河程度,并采取相应的防治措施是至关重要的。以四川省绵竹市清平镇于2010年8月13日暴发的群发性泥石流为研究对象,通过分析因子权重,利用非线性回归建立了泥石流堵河程度的预测模型,并与已有模型进行了对比,论证了所建立模型的可用性,其后对不同降雨频率下的泥石流堵河程度进行预测。结果表明:流量比和流域面积是最佳的建模因子,所建立的模型绝对平均误差为0.049;与不同模型对比发现本文模型对于清平镇泥石流堵河预测具有很好的适用性;在极端降雨下,部分沟道堵河预测程度为1,会造成绵远河堵断。研究成果可为该地区泥石流灾害的防治和治理提供参考。

Seismic-induced surficial failure of cohesive slopes using three-dimensional limit analysis:A case study of the Wangjiayan landslide in Beichuan, China

A seismic-induced landslide is a common geological catastrophe that occurs in nature.The Wangjiayan landslide,which was triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,is a typical case in point.The Wanjiayan landslide caused many casualties and resulted in enormous property loss.This study constructs a simple surficial failure model based on the upper bound approach of three-dimensional(3D)limit analysis to evaluate the slope stability of the Wangjiayan case,while a traditional two-dimensional(2D)analysis is also conducted as a reference for comparison with the results of the 3D analysis.A quasi-static calculation is used to study the effect of the earthquake in terms of horizontal ground acceleration,while a parametric study is conducted to evaluate the critical cohesion of slopes.Rather than employing a 3D analysis,using the 2D analysis yields an underestimation regarding the safety factor.In the Wangjiayan landslide,the difference in the factors of safety between the 3D and 2D analyses can reach 20%.The sliding surface morphology as determined by the 3D method is similar to actual morphology,and the parameters of both are also compared to analyze the reliability of the proposed 3D method.

Identifying drivers of urban landuse changes in the Wenchuan earthquake- affected area by using night-time light data

To learn the process of urban land evolution before and after an earthquake is vital to formulate the urban reconstruction control policies and recovery measures in the earthquake-stricken areas.However,spatiotemporal evolution and its driving factors of urban land in earthquake-prone areas remains limited due to the scarcity of ground observation data.This research,leveraging night-time light remote sensing imagery and land cover data,conducted a comprehensive analysis of the long-term evolution characteristics of urban land in earthquake-prone areas.It introduced methodologies for assessing the socio-economic impact and the primary natural environmental factors driving urban land evolution in these regions.To validate the proposed methods,the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in China was selected as a representative study area.The results indicated that the average Digital Number(DN)values in socio-economically impacted areas showed a trend of rising,falling,and then rising again after the earthquake.DN values in three types of damaged areas including Type Ⅱ,Type Ⅲ,and Type Ⅳ exceeded pre-earthquake levels.The analysis of determinative factors influencing urban land evolution revealed that slope and elevation were key elements in controlling urban land expansion before the earthquake,whereas factors such as slope,elevation,lithology,and faults had a stronger influence on urban land expansion after the earthquake.It can be seen that,in view of the differences in the natural conditions of regions for post-disaster reconstruction,the local government need to actively adjust and adapt to urban spatial planning,so as to leverage the scale effect of large-scale inputs of funds,facilities,human resources and other factors after the disaster,thus enhancing resilience and recovery efficiency in response to disaster impacts.

Astronomic background of global huge earthquakes at beginning of 21st century

Since the beginning of the 21st century,major earthquakes have frequently occurred worldwide.To explore the impact of astronomical factors on earthquakes,in this study,the statistical analysis method of correlation is used to systematically analyze the effects of astronomical factors,such as solar activity,Earth’s rotation,lunar declination angle,celestial tidal force,and other phenomena on M≥8 global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.With regard to solar activity,this study focuses on the analysis of the 11-year and century cycles of solar activity.The causal relationship of the Earth’s rotation is not obvious in this work and previous works;in contrast,the valley period of the solar activity century cycle may be an important astronomical factor leading to the frequent occurrence of global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.This topic warrants further study.

A modified stochastic finite-fault method for estimating strong ground motion:Validation and application

We developed a modified stochastic finite-fault method for estimating strong ground motions.An adjustment to the dynamic corner frequency was introduced,which accounted for the effect of the location of the subfault relative to the hypocenter and rupture propagation direction,to account for the influence of the rupture propagation direction on the subfault dynamic corner frequency.By comparing the peak ground acceleration(PGA),pseudo-absolute response spectra acceleration(PSA,damping ratio of 5%),and duration,the results of the modified and existing methods were compared,demonstrating that our proposed adjustment to the dynamic corner frequency can accurately reflect the rupture directivity effect.We applied our modified method to simulate near-field strong motions within 150 km of the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake rupture.Our modified method performed well over a broad period range,particularly at 0.04-4 s.The total deviations of the stochastic finite-fault method(EXSIM)and the modified EXSIM were 0.1676 and 0.1494,respectively.The modified method can effectively account for the influence of the rupture propagation direction and provide more realistic ground motion estimations for earthquake disaster mitigation.

Airblast evolution initiated by Wangjiayan landslides in the M_(s)8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and its destructive capacity analysis

Airblasts,as one common phenomenon accompanied by rapid movements of landslides or rock/snow avalanches,commonly result in catastrophic damages and are attracting more and more scientific attention.To quantitatively analyze the intensity of airblast initiated by landslides,the Wangjiayan landslide,occurred in the Wenchuan earthquake,is selected here with the landslide propagation and airblast evolution being studied using FLUENT by introducing the Voellmy rheological law.The results reveal that:(1)For the Wangjiayan landslide,its whole travelling duration is only 12 s with its maximum velocity reaching 36 m/s at t=10 s;(2)corresponding to the landslide propagation,the maximum velocity,28 m/s,of the airblast initiated by the landslide also appears at t=10 s with its maximum pressure reaching594.8 Pa,which is equivalent to violent storm;(3)under the attack of airblast,the load suffered by buildings in the airblast zone increases to 1300 Pa at t=9.4 s and sharply decreased to-7000 Pa as the rapid decrease of the velocity of the sliding mass at t=10 s,which is seriously unfavorable for buildings and might be the key reason for the destructive collapse of buildings in the airblast zone of the Wangjiayan landslide.

考虑优先级和需求可拆分的灾后应急血液多车舱调度

为保障非常规突发事件发生后安全救援顺利进行,提高应急血液调度效率,针对受灾点的灾情严重程度不同以及多类型血液制品的生理特性与应急保障特性,考虑受灾点优先级,构建多血库、多受灾点的二级路网,并采用多车舱的运输方式进行多类型血液制品调度。建立以应急血液调度的时效性和受灾点公平性为目标的多车舱应急血液调度模型,运用改进的自适应大邻域搜索算法进行求解,设计不同规模算例进行数据仿真实验,证明算法的有效性。最后,基于汶川地震构建实际案例,通过对比分析和敏感性分析验证所提出模型和算法的有效性,并提炼出相关管理启示。

2008年汶川M_(S)8.0地震地表破裂带沙坝村吴家院一带几何结构变化特征研究

以往学者通常侧重于大尺度(数公里级别)的地表形态对大地震同震地表破裂的影响研究,而鲜有涉及短距离尺度(10~100 m级)的相关报道。本文基于2008年汶川M_(S)8.0地震地表破裂带沙坝村吴家院一带的几何展布样式与微地貌测绘,为回答短距离尺度是否存在显著的几何结构变化和探究其影响因素提供一个典型案例。具体通过无人机摄影测量技术及激光雷达技术精确的获取了该段落断层展布特征及近断层地形地貌数据,发现吴家院一带地表破裂带在西南侧地形相对稳定无起伏时,破裂带集中为一支断层,而往北东向延伸遇到地形起伏如负地形时,断层分叉为三支分支断层。上述研究结果表明局部范围内地形起伏可能会导致同震地表破裂发生分叉现象,单一断层可能弥散为多支断层。

不同特征选择方法于区域地震滑坡危险性预测结果的差异性分析——以汶川地震区为例

区域性地震滑坡危险性评估模型是一个用于评定特定地区在地震发生时滑坡概率及其危害程度的关键工具。目前,以机器学习为代表的数学建模方法成为了构建该评估模型的主要手段。但是,由于影响因子自身的复杂性与多样性所产生的评估模型预测结果的差异性这一问题却少有研究。此次研究结合汶川地震区内11个影响因子,分别运用相关性系数、主成分分析及Gini指数三种特征选择方法形成三类数据集。结合人工神经网络模型构建了该区域地震滑坡危险性评估模型,并详细地分析了上述三类方法形成的数据集构建的评估模型于预测结果的差异性。结果表明:基于主成分分析法形成的数据集构建的评估模型,对于非常高危险性等级区域的划分精度最高,并且,频率比精度达到了92%,ROC曲线的预测精度达到了93.3%,预测精度均为三组评估模型中的最高值。此次研究旨在为相关研究人员在地震滑坡危险性评估模型的构建方面提供一定的思路,并为后续综合多个地震区、多组特征组成的不同维度的数据集构建一个具有普适性的特征选择方法提供一定的理论基础。

2008年汶川和2013年芦山地震触发滑坡全景回顾与比较分析

为给地震触发滑坡的防灾减灾救灾工作提供支持,需全面掌握地震同震滑坡的发育与分布特征。基于文献调研、高分辨率卫星影像与超高分辨率无人机航空影像目视解译,结合野外调查验证,以2008年汶川和2013年芦山2次地震触发的滑坡为例,介绍典型滑坡、同震滑坡数据库、滑坡分布规律等的研究情况。结果表明:汶川地震触发的滑坡数量多、分布面积广、规模大、危害严重,芦山地震触发滑坡的数量约是汶川地震的1/9,面积约是1/60,体积约是1/150,分布面积约是1/20;这2次地震的标量地震矩比率与同震滑坡发育程度比率大体相当,表明这2次地震触发滑坡差异的原因主要来自地震释放能量的差异;这2次地震触发滑坡的空间分布均呈现椭圆形展布的形态,且长轴与地震发震构造走向一致;同时,总结了汶川地震地壳抬升与同震滑坡导致震区地形变化的研究结果。

汶川地震假玄武玻璃的特征、成因及其构造意义

富流体的断层泥是浅部地震断层带中的特征岩石。一般认为,地震过程中摩擦热会导致粒间孔隙流体热膨胀增压,形成同震断层弱化(热增压机制),从而抑制摩擦熔融的发生。然而我们研究发现,在2008年汶川大地震(M_(W) 7.9)中断层浅部发生了摩擦熔融。汶川地震发生一年后,我们在汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目一号钻孔(WFSD-1)732.6m深处的断层泥中发现了厚度约2mm的假玄武玻璃(凝固的摩擦熔融物)。该假玄武玻璃形成的位置极浅,且产生于非固结的、富流体的断层泥中。从岩心来看,断层面可见镜面构造和同震擦痕。微构造分析显示,该假玄武玻璃主要由石英碎屑和由长石与黏土矿物熔融的非晶质基质组成,基质中发育众多不规则的微裂隙,并可见流动构造。化学成分分析显示,其基质富Ba且被重晶石(BaSO 4)小细脉切割,为同震及震后流体存在的证据。由于假玄武玻璃在流体存在的条件下会快速蚀变,且龙门山地区大地震复发周期为3000~6000年,因而这些完全未被蚀变的新鲜假玄武玻璃可能是最近一次大地震,即2008年汶川大地震的产物。针对钻孔中断层泥进行的高速摩擦试验,证实了在钻孔732m深度发生地震滑动的条件下确实会产生假玄武玻璃。因此WFSD-1钻孔732.6m的假玄武玻璃被认为是汶川地震的产物,代表了汶川地震主滑动带位置。这是首次在自然界中发现浅部含水断层泥摩擦熔融形成假玄武玻璃的实例,不仅对认识汶川大地震的发震机制、断层强度、应力迁移与破裂传播具有重要意义,而且有助于我们认识断裂带内浅部脆性区域的力学属性、岩石变形环境和变形机制,促进对地震滑动机制和破裂过程的认识。