Spatial differences of Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)among counties(cities)on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains

The county(city)located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains is the primary area to solidify and extend the success of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China in poverty alleviation.Its Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)are intertwined with the concerted economic and social development of Xinjiang and the objective of achieving shared prosperity within the region.This study established a sustainable development evaluation framework by selecting 15 SDGs and 20 secondary indicators from the United Nations’SDGs.The aim of this study is to quantitatively assess the progress of SDGs at the county(city)level on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains.The results indicate that there are substantial variations in the scores of SDGs among the nine counties and one city located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains.Notable high scores of SDGs are observed in the central and eastern regions,whereas lower scores are prevalent in the western areas.The scores of SDGs,in descending order,are as follows:62.22 for Minfeng County,54.22 for Hotan City,50.21 for Qiemo County,42.54 for Moyu County,41.56 for Ruoqiang County,41.39 for Qira County,39.86 for Lop County,38.25 for Yutian County,38.10 for Pishan County,and 36.87 for Hotan County.The performances of SDGs reveal that Hotan City,Lop County,Minfeng County,and Ruoqiang County have significant sustainable development capacity because they have three or more SDGs ranked as green color.However,Hotan County,Moyu County,Qira County,and Yutian County show the poorest performance,as they lack SDGs with green color.It is important to establish and enhance mechanisms that can ensure sustained income growth among poverty alleviation beneficiaries,sustained improvement in the capacity of rural governance,and the gradual improvement of social security system.These measures will facilitate the effective implementation of SDGs.Finally,this study offers a valuable support for governmental authorities and relevant departments in their decision-making processes.In addition,these results hold significant reference value for assessing SDGs at the county(city)level,particularly in areas characterized by low levels of economic development.

Discovery of Enclaves from Cenozoic PuluVolcanic Rocks in West Kunlun Mountains and ItsGeological Implications

In this paper, we present the occurrence and mineral components of the enclaves firstly discovered in the Cenozoic Pulu volcanic rocks in west Kunlun Mountains, and propose that the enclave is accumulated by fractional crystallization within high-level magma chamber. In addition, the chemical compositions of its primary magma are calculated. The calculated compositions are similar to those of the Kangxiwa volcanic rocks that belong to the same volcanic belt in the Pulu volcanic region, suggesting their origin from the same source region. However, the temperatures and oxygen fugacity of magmas at high-level magma chamber decreased along with fractional crystallization.

Geochemistry of the Cenozoic Potassic Volcanic Rocks in the West Kunlun Mountains and Constraints on Their Sources

The geochemical characteristics of the Cenozoic volcanic rocks from the north Pulu, east Pulu and Dahongliutan regions in the west Kunlun Mountains are somewhat similar as a whole. However, the volcanic rocks from the Dahongliutan region in the south belt are geochemically distinguished from those in the Pulu region (including the north and east Pulu) of the north belt. The volcanic rocks of the Dahongliutan region are characterized by relatively low TiO2 abundance, but more enrichment in alkali, much more enrichment in light rare earth elements and large ion lithosphile elements than those from the Pulu region. Compared with the Pulu region, volcanic rocks from the Dahongliutan region have relatively low 87Sr/86Sr ratios, and high εNd, 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb. Their trace elements and isotopic data suggest that they were derived from lithospheric mantle, consisting of biotite- and hornblende-bearing garnet lherzolite, which had undertaken metasomatism and enrichment. On the primitive mantle-normalized patterns, they display remarkably negative Nb and Ta anomalies, indicating the presence of early-stage subducted oceanic crust. The metasomatism and enrichment resulted from the fluid released from the crustal materials enclosed in the source region in response to the uplift of asthenospheric mantle. Based on the previous experiments it can be inferred that the thickness of the lithosphere ranges from 75 to 100 km prior to the generation of the magmas. However, the south belt differs from the north one by its thicker lithosphere and lower degree of partial melting. The different thickness of the lithosphere gives rise to corresponding variation of the degree of crustal contamination. The volcanic rocks in the south belt are much more influenced by crustal contamination. In view of the tectonic setting, the generation of potassic magmas is linked with the uplift of asthenosphere resulted from large-scale thinning of the lithosphere after the collision of Indian and Eurasian plates, whereas the thinning of the lithosphere may result from delamination. The potassic magmas mainly resulted from partial melting of lithosphere mantle caused by the uplift of asthenosphere.

Thrust Propagation in the Aqqikkol Lake Area, the East Kunlun Mountains, Northwestern China

The western segment of the East Kunlun Mountains is one of the poorly studied regions in northwestern China. Through a structural analysis of the typical sections, we have the following views: (1) There is a very well developed fault system in the western segment of the East Kunlun Mountains and thrust propagation, normal slip and decoupling are the chief deformation events in this area. (2) Although the thrusting started in the Late Carboniferous and Late Triassic-Early Jurassic, strong activity took place in the Miocene-Quaternary when the Kumkol basin was strongly downwarped. (3) The tectonic pattern of coexistence of N-directed thrust propagation and S-directed normal slip in this area is consistent with the general tectonic pattern of the northern Qinghai-Tibet plateau and also very similar to that of the Himalayan region on the southern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, but their directions between the thrust propagation are opposite and all the strong thrust propagations occurred from the Miocene-Pliocene to Quaternary, a period featuring strong collision between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate and abrupt uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. This oppositely directed thrust propagation and normal slip reveal such kinematic characteristics as symmetric propagations of deep-seated materials towards the north and south beneath the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and gravitational sliding of superficial materials towards the interior of the plateau. Therefore, the establishment of the fault system in the study area may provide an approach to the study of deep processes of the northern Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the construction of a unified geodynamic model for the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau.

Surface Processes Driving Intracontinental Basin Subsidence in the Context of India–Eurasia Collision:Evidence from Flexural Subsidence Modeling of the Cenozoic Southern Tarim Basin along the West Kunlun Foreland,NW Tibetan Plateau

The India–Eurasia collision has produced a number of Cenozoic deep intracontinental basins,which bear important information for revealing the far-afield responses to the remote collision.Despite their significance,their subsiding mechanism remains the subject of debate,with end-member models attributing it to either orogenic or sedimentary load.In this study,we conduct flexural subsidence modeling with a two-dimensional finite elastic plate model on the Hotan-Mazatagh section along the southern Tarim Basin,which defines a key region in the foreland of the West Kunlun Orogen,along the NW margin of the Tibetan Plateau.The modeling results indicate that the orogenic load of West Kunlun triggers the southern Tarim Basin to subside by up to less than ~6 km,with its impact weakening towards the basin interiors until ~230 km north from the Karakax fault.The sedimentary load,consisting of Cenozoic strata,forces the basin to subside by ~2 to~7 km.In combination with the retreat of the proto-Paratethys Sea and the paleogeographic reorganization of the Tarim Basin,we propose that surface processes,in particular a shift from an exorheic to an endorheic drainage system associated with the consequent thick sedimentary load,played a decisive role in forming deep intracontinental basins in the context of the India-Eurasia collision.

Digital Extraction of Altitudinal Belt Spectra in the West Kunlun Mountains Using SPOT-VGT NDVI and SRTM DEM

In this paper,a digital identification method for the extraction of altitudinal belt spectra of montane natural belts is presented.Acquiring the sequential spectra of digital altitudinal belts in mountains at an acceptable temporal frequency and over a large area requires extensive time and work if traditional methods of field investigation are to be used.Such being the case,often the altitudinal belts of a whole mountain or the belts at a regional scale are represented by single points.However,single points obviously cannot accurately reflect the spatial variety of altitudinal belts.In this context,a digital method was developed to extract the spectra of altitudinal belts from remote sensing data and SRTM DEM in the West Kunlun Mountains.By means of the 1km resolution SPOT-4 vegetation 10-day composite NDVI,the horizontal distribution of altitudinal belts were extracted through supervised classification,with a total classification accuracy of 72.23%.Then,a way of twice-scan was used to realize the automatic transition of horizontal maps to vertical belts.The classification results of remote-sensing data could thus be transformed automatically to sequential spectra of digital altitudinal belts.The upper and lower lines of the altitudinal belts were then extracted by vertical scanning of the belts.Relationships between the altitudinal belts based on the montane natural zones concerning vegetation types and the geomorphological altitudinal belts were also discussed.As a tentative method,the digital extraction method presented here is effective at digitally identifying altitudinal belts,and could be helpful in rapid information extraction over large-scale areas.

THE EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY OF THE WEST KUNLUN MOUNTAINS: A TECTONIC RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON STUDIES OF MAGMATISM

The Kunlun Mountains is situated in the north margin of the Tibetan plateau and is one of crucial areas for unraveling the tectonic evolutionary history of the plateau and Eurasia. However, there is no widely accepted model for this area. One of the reasons is that some basic issues for the tectonic reconstruction have not been well settled, they are: (1) Is the Kunlun Mountains an ancient accretion prism, or a mini continent with old basement?(2) What is the age of the Kudi ophiolite, early Paleozoic or late Paleozoic?(3) When did the South Kunlun Block accrete to the Tarim Block?(4) Do the fifth and the forth sutures represent different oceans, or they are just the chronologically different relics of the same ocean?(5) Did the Kunlun Mountains experience continuous subduction since Neoproterozoic?(6) When did the Paleo\|Tethys closed in the West Kunlun range?

Unraveling the distribution patterns of near-surface temperature lapse rates in the Northwestern Kunlun Mountains

The near-surface temperature lapse rates for the core area of the Kunlun Mountains remain critically unresolved due to data scarcity.Here,we revealed the spatial and temporal patterns of nearsurface temperature lapse rate in the Kunlun Mountain regions based on both long-term meteorological records(1961-2017)and field surveys measured data(2012-2017).The results showed that(1)The near-surface temperature lapse rates(β;)has spatiotemporal distribution patterns on the Northwestern Kunlun Mountains(NWKM),and in complex terrain areas the complexity of the temperature-elevation relationship cannot be explained by the constant environmental temperature lapse rate(0.65℃/100 m)throughout alone.(2)Theβ;for the daily mean,minimum,and maximum temperature on the north slopes in the Kunlun mountain area are 0.41,0.47,and 0.37℃/100 m and on the Tiznafu River(TR)basin are 0.51,0.47 and 0.53℃/100 m,respectively.(3)The variations ofβ;for daily maximum and minimum temperature of the two regions exhibit similar monthly characteristics,which are lower in the winter and spring months than in other months.A greatest variability ofβ;for the daily mean,minimum,and maximum temperature appears in winter and a light variability ofβ;occurs in spring.The seasonal variability ofβ;for daily maximum temperature is greater than that for daily minimum temperature,and the seasonal variability ofβ;for daily average temperature has the smallest variability.(4)There is no significant trend of change occurred in theβ;of NWKM.(5)The spatial and temporal variations ofβ;for the NWKM are linked to the geographic differences and climate factors.The results of Grey Relational Analysis showed that theβ;distribution is mainly influenced by the wind speed and relative humidity of the NWKM.

The Early Paleozoic Tectonic Evolution of the West Kunlun Mountains: New Constraint from the North Küda Pluton

Systematic geochemical studies have been conducted on the North Küda Pluton, West Kunlun, in order to reveal its petrogenesis and tectonic implications. The North Küda Pluton is a potassium\|rich (K\-2O>5.4wt%) I\|type granitic pluton and does not contain any alkaline ferromagnesian mineral. Its relatively high REE, LILE (e.g. Rb, Cs, U and Th) and HFSE (e.g. Nb, Zr) contents make it very akin to the A\|type granites. Its heterogeneous Sr (\{\{\}\+\{87\}Sr\}/\{\{\}\+\{86\}Sr\-i\}=\{0.7049\}～\{0.7098\}) and Nd (εNd\-T=\{-1.05\}～\{-4.04\}) isotope compositions preclude the possibility of a pure sedimentary or igneous source. Instead, its geochemical compositions suggest that it may be derived from partial melting of a complex source, which consists of igneous and sedimentary rocks. Its intraplate characteristics, together with coeval mafic dykes, indicate an extensional environment at the end of Caledonian. The recognition of the extensional event does not support a continuous subduction\|accretion model for the Paleozoic tectonic evolution of the West Kunlun Mountains. On the contrary, it provides new evidence for the two\|stage island\|arc model.

Characteristics of Far-field Precursory Anomalies Before the M_S8.1 Earthquake in the West of Kunlun Mountains Pass

In this study, a number of typical precursory anomalies recorded by stations in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions before the M_S8.1 earthquake in the west of Kunlun Mountains Pass are collected and checked. According to the standards of earthquake cases in China, the criteria of the precursory anomalies are determined, and 53 distinguished. The characteristics of these anomalies before the M_S8.1 earthquake are analyzed, with results showing a very large earthquake affected area. The precursory anomalies recorded by instruments were 2900 km away from the epicenter, and according to the study in this paper, reached 2100 km away. The results also show that the anomalies present characteristics of long duration, multi-measurement items and large-amplitude variation. The authors believe that in large earthquake monitoring, attention should be paid to the variation of data over a large area, ranging up to thousands kilometers, with much denser earthquake observation networks.

The Frozen Soils and Devastating Characteristics of West Kunlun Mountains Pass M_S 8.1 Earthquake Area in 2001

The investigation on damages to frozen soil sites during the West Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake with M S 8.1 in 2001 shows that the frozen soil in the seismic area is composed mainly of moraine, alluvial deposit, diluvial deposit and lacustrine deposit with the depth varying greatly along the earthquake rupture zone. The deformation and rupture of frozen soil sites are mainly in the form of coseismic fracture zones caused by tectonic motion and fissures, liquefaction, seismic subsidence and collapse resulting from ground motion. The earthquake fracture zones on the surface are main brittle deformations, which, under the effect of sinistral strike-slip movement, are represented by shear fissures, tensional cracks and compressive bulges. The distribution and configuration patterns of deformation and rupture such as fissures, liquefaction, seismic subsidence and landslides are all related to the ambient rock and soil conditions of the earthquake area. The distribution of earthquake damage is characterized by large-scale rupture zones, rapid intensity attenuation along the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Highway, where buildings distribute and predominant effect of rock and soil conditions.

Characteristics of Collapses Caused by the M8.1 Earthquake West of the Kunlun Mountains Pass

An M 8.1 earthquake that occurred west of the Kunlun Mountains Pass has caused more than 20 collapse bodies or zones, which are mainly distributed near the surface seismic rupture zone, west of Hoh Sai Lake. The collapses are of four types, bedrock, soil mass and ice mass collapses and avalanches. The spatial distribution and the characteristics of development of the collapses are analyzed in the paper. Comparised with those caused by other earthquakes, the collapses are smaller in scale. In addition to the lithological characteristics of the crustal media, topographic, geomorphic and climatic factors, weaker seismic ground motion is an important cause for formation of the smaller-scale collapses. The long surface rupture zone and weaker ground motion are important features of the seismic rupture, which may be related to the structure of the preexisting fault.

Tectonic evolution of the West Kunlun Orogenic Belt along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau:Implications for the assembly of the Tarim terrane to Gondwana

The West Kunlun orogenic belt(WKOB) along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is important for understanding the evolution of the Proto-and Paleo-Tethys oceans. Previous investigations have focused on the igneous rocks and ophiolites distributed mostly along the Xinjiang-Tibet road and the China-Pakistan road, and have constructed a preliminary tectonic model for this orogenic belt. However, few studies have focused on the so-called Precambrian basement in this area. As a result, the tectonic affinity of the individual terranes of the WKOB and their detailed evolution process are uncertain. Here we report new field observations, zircon and monazite U-Pb ages of the "Precambrian basement" of the South Kunlun terrane(SKT) and the Tianshuihai terrane(TSHT), two major terranes in the WKOB. Based on new zircon U-Pb age data, the amphibolite-facies metamorphosed volcanosedimentary sequence within SKT was deposited during the late Neoproterozoic to Cambrian(600-500 Ma), and the flysch-affinity Tianshuihai Group, as the basement of the TSHT, was deposited during the late Neoproterozoic rather than Mesoproterozoic. The rock association of the volcano-sedimentary sequence within SKT suggests a large early Paleozoic accretionary wedge formed by the long-term lowangle southward subduction of the Proto-Tethys Ocean between Tarim and TSHT. The amphibolitefacies metamorphism in SKT occurred at ca. 440 Ma. This ca. 440 Ma metamorphism is genetically related to the closure of the Proto-Tethys Ocean between Tarim and the Tianshuihai terrane, which led to the assembly of Tarim to Eastern Gondwana and the final formation of the Gondwana. Since the late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic, the northward subduction of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean along the HongshihuQiaoertianshan belt produced the voluminous early Mesozoic arc-signature granites along the southern part of NKT-TSHT. The Paleo-Tethys ocean between TSHT and Karakorum closed at ca. 200 Ma, as demonstrated by the monazite age of the paragneiss in the Kangxiwa Group. Our study does not favor the existence of a Precambrian basement in SKT.

Ore-forming Conditions and Prospecting in the West Kunlun Area,Xinjiang, China

The West Kunlun ore-forming belt is located between the northwestern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and southwestern Tarim Basin. It situated between the Paleo-Asian Tectonic Domain and Tethyan Tectonic Domain. It is an important component of the giant tectonic belt in central China (the Kunlun-Qilian-Qinling Tectonic Belt or the Central Orogenic Belt). Many known ore-forming belts such as the Kunlun-Qilian Qinling ore-forming zone, Sanjiang (or Three river) ore-forming zone, Central Asian ore-forming zone, etc. pass through the West Kunlun area. Three ore-forming zones and seven ore-forming subzones were classified, and eighteen mineralization areas were marked. It is indicated that the West Kunlun area is one of the most favorable region for finding out large and superlarge ore deposits.

MINERALIZATION AGES OF GOLD-HYDROTHERMAL DEPOSITS IN NORTHERN ZONE OF EASTERN KUNLUN MOUNTAINS BASED ON FISSION TRACK ANALYSIS

The age of mineralization in a mining area is a primary factor in various researches related to ore\|forming process. It is that the uncertainty of mineralization ages of gold ore deposits in northern zone of eastern Kunlun Mountains, Qinghai Province, restrains to probe the relationship of the deposits to the regional tectonic evolution. This paper documents the fission track method used to determine the ages of gold ore deposits in eastern Kunlun Mountains and considers the implication for the origin of the deposits.Eastern Kunlun Mountains is the northern part of the Qinghai—Tibet Plateau and is of three deep\|seated fault belts in about EW extension. This work mainly includes three gold ore districts. All of them, in the north of Mid\|Kunlun fault belt, belong to northern part of eastern Kunlun Mountains. The Yanjingou district, with geographical coordinate 96°00’E and 36°10’N, is located 60 km north of Hongqigou district . Both of them are large, typical tectonoalteration gold deposits and were formed in similar geological setting. Hongshuihe ore district is located 50 km east of Yanjingou district and includes tectonoalteration and magmatic cryptoexplosive gold deposits. Outcroped strata are dominantly Jinshuikou Group metamorphic rocks of Lower Proterozoic erathem. The occurrence area of igneous rocks, especially granitoid, accounts for about 90% in first two districts and become less in Hongshuihe district. The gold deposits occur in NW\|striking fault belts. The Rb\|Sr isochron age and K\|Ar isotopic age of Moyite relevant to the gold mineralization are respectively 228 25Ma and 207 1Ma. Rb\|Sr dating of diorite porphyrite is 209 09Ma. Sericite selected from Yanjingou orebody has 252 9Ma K\|Ar age. The ore in Hongqigou district has 197Ma K\|Ar age and 210Ma model age of Pb isotope of galena.

Isotope Geochronologic and Geochemical Constraints on the Magmatic Associations of the Collisional Orogenic Zone in the West Kunlun Orogen, China

The Jiajiwaxi pluton in the southern portion of the West Kunlun Range can be divided into two collision-related intrusive rock series, i.e., a gabbro-quartz diorite-granodiorite series that formed at 224±2.0 Ma and a monzonitic granite-syenogranite series that formed at 222±2.0 Ma. The systematic analysis of zircon U-Pb geochronology and bulk geochemistry is used to discuss the magmatic origin （material source and thermal source）, tectonic setting, genesis and geotectonic implications of these rocks. The results of this analysis indicate that the parent magma of the first series, representing a transition from I-type to S-type granites, formed from thermally triggered partial melting of deep crustal components in an early island-arc-type igneous complex, similar to an I-type granite, during the continental collision orogenic stage. The parent magma of the second series, corresponding to an S-type granite, formed from the partial melting of forearc accretionary wedge sediments in a subduction zone in the late Palaeozoic-Triassic. During continued collision, the second series magma was emplaced into the first series pluton along a central fault zone in the original island arc region, forming an immiscible puncture-type complex. The deep tectonothermal events associated with the continent-continent collision during the orogenic cycle are constrained by the compositions and origins of the two series. The new information provided by this paper will aid in future research into the dynamic mechanisms affecting magmatic evolution in the West Kunlun orogenic belt.

Current patterns of plant diversity and phylogenetic structure on the Kunlun Mountains

Large-scale patterns of biodiversity and the underlying mechanisms that regulate these patterns are central topics in biogeography and macroecology.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau serves as a natural laboratory for studying these issues.However,most previous studies have focused on the entire Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,leaving independent physical geographic subunits in the region less well understood.We studied the current plant diversity of the Kunlun Mountains,an independent physical geographic subunit located in northwestern China on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.We integrated measures of species distribution,geological history,and phylogeography,and analyzed the taxonomic richness,phylogenetic diversity,and community phylogenetic structure of the current plant diversity in the area.The distribution patterns of 1911 seed plants showed that species were distributed mainly in the eastern regions of the Kunlun Mountains.The taxonomic richness,phylogenetic diversity,and genera richness showed that the eastern regions of the Kunlun Mountains should be the priority area of biodiversity conservation,particularly the southeastern regions.The proportion of Chinese endemic species inhabiting the Kunlun Mountains and their floristic similarity may indicate that the current patterns of species diversity were favored via species colonization.The Hengduan Mountains,a biodiversity hotspot,is likely the largest source of species colonization of the Kunlun Mountains after the Quaternary.The net relatedness index indicated that 20 of the 28 communities examined were phylo-genetically dispersed,while the remaining communities were phylogenetically clustered.The nearest taxon index indicated that 27 of the 28 communities were phylogenetically clustered.These results suggest that species colonization and habitat filtering may have contributed to the current plant diversity of the Kunlun Mountains via ecological and evolutionary processes,and habitat filtering may play an important role in this ecological process.

Glacier Changes during the Past 40 Years in the West Kunlun Shan

Recent studies on glaciers in the West Kunlun Shan, northwest Tibetan Plateau, have shown that they may be stable or retreating slightly. Here, we assess changes in the mass of the glaciers in the West Kunlun Shan(WKS) in an attempt to understand the processes that control their behavior. Glaciers over the recent 40 years(1970-2010) have shrunk 3.4±3.1%in area, based on a comparison between two Chinese glacier inventories. Variations of surface elevations, derived from ICESat-GLAS(Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) elevation products(GLA14 data) using the robust linear-fit method, indicate that the glaciers have been gaining mass at a rate of 0.23±0.24 m w.e./a since 2003. The annual mass budget for the whole WKS range from 2003 to 2009 is estimated to be 0.71±0.62 Gt/a. This gain trend is confirmed by MOD10A1 albedo for the WKS region which shows a descent of the mean snowline altitude from 2003 to 2009.

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains（TKM） based on the general circulation model（GCM） simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging（BMA） technique. Results show that（1） BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;（2） at the end of the 21^（st） century（2070–2099） under RCP8.5, compared to the control period（1976–2005）, annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;（3） precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and（4） snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.

Gold Resources Potential Assessment in Eastern Kunlun Mountains of China Combining Weights-of-evidence Model with GIS Spatial Analysis Technique

Resources potential assessment is one of the fields in geosciences,which is able to take great advantage of GIS technology as a substitution of traditional working methods.The gold resources potential in the eastern Kunlun Mountains,Qinghai Province,China was assessed by combining weights-of-evidence model with GIS spatial analysis technique.All the data sets used in this paper were derived from an established multi-source geological spatial database,which contains geological,geophysical,geochemical and remote sensing data.Three multi-class variables,i.e.,structural intersection,Indosinian k-feldspar granite and regional fault,were used in proximity analysis to examine their spatial association with known gold deposits.A prospectivity map was produced by weights-of-evidence model based on seven binary evidential maps,all of which had passed a conditional independence test.The study area was divided into three target zones of high potential,moderate potential and low potential areas,among which high potential areas and moderate potential areas accounted for 20% of the total area and contained 32 of the 43 gold deposits.The results show that the gold resources potential assessment in the eastern Kunlun Mountains has a higher precision.