ONGOING PREDICAMENTS OF CAPITALISM AND FUTURE TREND OF WORLD ORDER

According to the viewpoint of historical materialism,the economic base determines the superstructure.In the long process of its development,capitalism has not only shaped political and economic institutions within countries but also profoundly impacted the development and transition of the world order.However,since the international financial crisis

A Changing World Order

2013 is an important year for South Africa. The country will host the Fifth BRICS Summit in March and also celebrates the 15th anniversary of the establish- ment of diplomatic relations with China. On January 31, Bheki Langa, South African Ambassador to China, sat down with ChinAffica Assistant Executive Editor Tang Qinghua and shared his thoughts on the upcoming BRICS Summit and relations between China and South Africa, An edited version of his opinions follows：

The UN and a New World Order

CURRENTLY, the world is undergoing significant change as emerging powers become more important and active participants in the international system. Significant changes in the relative economic and political power of states pose new challenges and opportunities for international peace and development,

State Governance, Global Governance and the Construction of World Order

State governance and global governance are two intertwining aspects in the construction of world order. A peaceful, prosperous and equitable world order encompasses internal order of sovereign states and interaational order of the international systems. Effective state governance nurtures internal order of sovereign states, eschews internal disorder, and prevents the spillover of negative externality into the international systems. In this sense, state governance is the cornerstone for constructing world order. In the meantime, effective global governance constructs world order and assists sovereign states in constructing internal order. In the construction of world order, different actors in the international systems represented by sovereign states inter alia must cooperate with a view to dissolving conflicts of interests and policies among states, managing global public domain, responding to common challenges and sharing responsibilities in assisting internally disordered states to govern effectively. Since the reform and opening up, China has contributed its distinctive part to the construction of world order by means of responsible state governance and global partnership governance.

The"Chinese World Order"Encounters the"East Asian World Order"—Post-War Japanese Historians'Debates on the Tribute System

In this paper,I trace the post-war Japanese genealogy of studies on China's tribute system(imperial China's relatively tolerant approach to its foreign relations)in relation to the English-language work of historian John King Fairbank(1907-91).I emphasize that,together with the sporadic Chinese studies into China's tribute system prior to the 1950s,it was the post-war research of Japanese historians that inspired Fairbank,who,in turn,further stimulated critical debates on the topic in Japan.I first concentrate on post-war Japanese debates concerning an"East Asian world order"based on a"system of investiture/tribute."This notion,developed by the Japanese historian Nishijima Sadao in 1962,precisely corresponds to Fairbank's 1941 understanding of the"tribute system"or"Confucian world-order,"but contrasts with Fairbank's later,controversial understanding of a"Chinese world order"as proposed in 1968.In the second part of this paper,I introduce Japanese historian Hamashita Takeshi's 1980s and 1990s arguments on the"tribute trade system"as representative of the younger generation within this genealogy,contrasting it with the work of Immanuel Wallerstein and Andre Gunder Frank.In the third part,Ⅰlocate this Japanese genealogy within the wider historical context of post-war Japanese intellectual cultural politics.This means that I examine Japanese historians'arguments both from the angle of historiography and from the perspective of post-war Japanese intellectual history.

Conceptualizing the Nexus of ＂Interdependent Hegemony＂ between the Existing and the Emerging World Orders

The paper intends to contribute a framework of conceptualizing the emerging world order through interpreting the transformation of international political economy in an era of the rise of the BRICS and the ＂second world.＂ It theorizes the dialectical nexus between the rise of the BRICs and the existing world order as an interdependent dynamic process of mutual challenge, mutual constraint, and mutual accommodation. One of the conceptual tools the paper applies is the notion of interdependent hegemony. The notion is seen as an important tool for conceptualizing and analyzing international relations and international political economy in the current era. The application of ＂interdependent hegemony＂ helps to explain that to what extent the BRICS can be identified as a unified alliance, a historical bloc, and to what extent they are generating functional or structural challenges to the existing international order. Likewise, it also helps to determine to what extent the hegemony of the existing order is still able to keep its resilient capacities and its structural powers and able to neutralize challenges from the emerging powers. The conclusion of the paper posits that the world is experiencing ＂interdependent hegemony＂ in the transition from the existing order to the emerging order.

West Asia in the Post-Pandemic World Order:Shaping the RIC(Russia-India-China)as an Instrument for Regional Peace

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised questions about the shape of the world order that will emerge from this crisis.The general view is that it will accelerate trends that were already apparent in world affairs.The pandemic has hit West Asia with a‘double whammy’-the health crisis coupled with the collapse in oil prices on which most regional economies depend to maintain their political,economic and social order.With the region already enmeshed in serious conflicts-in Syria,Yemen and Libya-and experiencing widespread destruction and instability,there are legitimate concerns that the pandemic could aggravate regional divisions and,by design or inadvertence,plunge West Asia into a region-wide conflagration.Given diminished US capacity,credibility and interest in global leadership and responsibility,this paper argues that the pandemic has opened up opportunities for the exploration of new engagements and alignments and shaping of new leadership roles.The paper proposes that the three RIC nations-Russia,India and China-work jointly in a‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’framework to address their internal,regional and global interests.This will strengthen mutual ties within the trilateral format,particularly through resetting Sino-Indian relations,so that the RIC could become an effective instrument to promote regional security and stability.This revitalised RIC would then be well-equipped to pursue initiatives to deal with West Asia’s immediate pandemic-related challenges and shape and lead a peace process in West Asia.

Individual Rights in the New World Order

Editorial note： This was a speech delivered as a twentieth lecture of World Social Sciences Lectures at Fudan Institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences （IAS-Fudan） on September 17, 2009. In this lecture, Joseph Raz discussed the role played by individual fights in the emerging new world order, as well as the associated intellectual diflficulties. Using the fight to education and the fight to health as illustrations, Raz reflected upon both the importance and necessity of individual rights in shaping the emerging new world order, where the traditional power actors at the international level should be duly held in check by individual fight-holders. To practice such claims, nonetheless, can lead to reckless activism and do much harm unless with certain institutions in place to impartially administer justice. 1kaz forcefully argued that such factors as of time, space and culture should be duly considered in laying the intellectual foundations for defining and implementing individual fights in the emerging new world order.

Russia and China Place Eurasia at the Heart of the Post-Pandemic World Order

As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on global health and economy,it has also accelerated trends in international politics.These include the decline of the US’status as the global hegemon and the emergence of a multipolar world,with new players seeking a role in shaping world affairs.China’s economic successes have placed it in the vanguard of the newly emerging players on the world stage,in tandem with Russia.US hostility to both has promoted closer relations between them,having been earlier brought together by ties in the areas of energy,trade and defence.They have now become partners in placing Eurasia at the centre of their strategic interests by linking Putin’s‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.Through a series of carefully crafted diplomatic initiatives,Russia and China are bringing other nations-Iran,Turkey,the Arab Gulf states,Afghanistan and Pakistan-into the Eurasian embrace on the basis of logistical,energy and digital connectivity,thus shaping the nascent stage of a new world order.

The Influence of U. S-Iraq War on World System and International Order

The ongoing U. S. -Iraq war is the focus of various governments, peoples and media of the world. Analyses can be made from different angles. I want to discuss the influence of the U. S. -Iraq war on current and future world system and international system. The U. S. -Iraq war is not a war in a traditional sense, but the first comprehensive war in the new century, involving military, political,

Order parameters and synchronization of FitzHugh-Nagumo small-world networks

This paper numerically investigates the order parameter and synchronisation in the small world connected FitzHugh-Nagumo excitable systems. The simulations show that the order parameter continuously decreases with increasing D, the quality of the synchronisation worsens for large noise intensity. As the coupling intensity goes up, the quality of the synchronisation worsens, and it finds that the larger rewiring probability becomes the larger order parameter. It obtains the complete phase diagram for a wide range of values of noise intensity D and control parameter g.

The Energy New World Order,Mideast Oil and US Energy Security

For over five decades,the world’s oil map has centered on the Middle East.However,with the advent of the 21st century,a new map is emerging,shifting from the Middle East to the Western Hemisphere.Some analysts assert that the world energy’s new map will change the existing world political order because the world’s new map will make the Mideast oil producers less powerful and less relevant.Furthermore,as the United States is getting less dependent on Mideast oil,it is most likely to readjust its Mideast policy accordingly.Yet,the argument in this article is that as the world has only one oil market,improved energy security of the United States alone will not necessarily lead to improved energy security on a global scale,nor will the United States automatically become immune to new disruptions of Mideast oil supply and to a new world oil price crisis.Rather,the fact that the Mideast geopolitical contradictions are structurally uncompromising and historically enduring will continue to affect the oil supply from the Middle East and therefore affect the US economy.Given the important role that the Mideast oil plays in boosting the global economy and conditioning world geopolitics,as well as in shaping America’s energy policy and economic policy,the author concludes that the power status of the Mideast oil will persist for quite some time to come.

“养民”:构建天下秩序的路径指向——以丘濬《大学衍义补》为中心的考察

明代丘濬以“治国平天下”为中心,探讨如何构建天下秩序,写成了《大学衍义补》。在该书中,丘濬以“三代圣王”为典范,坚守以“养民”为本的仁政思想,极力要求后世君主效法尧舜,以“诚”待民,尽职“养民”,力行“仁义之政”,再现“尧舜之治”。丘濬一再强调,“养民”是君主施行“仁政”的真正体现,只有将“仁政”聚焦到“养民”上,才能真正构建天下秩序,成为像尧舜一样的“圣君”。在丘濬看来,“养民”是构建天下秩序的具体路径,也是唯一路径,君主只有施行“养民”之政且“兼爱华夷之民”,才能真正实现“华夷一家”的大同理想。

从东盟到“东盟世界”:东南亚地区秩序构建的全球意义

当今世界,东盟面临的内外部环境发生新的变化,大国竞争势能持续增加,东盟致力于打造的包容性地区秩序同样处于正增长态势。回顾东南亚地区秩序的构建历程,东盟从被动参与者逐渐演变成为地区秩序塑造者,形成了“东盟世界”的空间形态与理论雏形。“东盟世界”的兴起不是凭空产生,亦非东盟纯粹自发性的结果,而是东盟国家之间、东盟与大国、东盟与全球三大维度的复杂系统合成。“东盟世界”在认知层面来源于东盟对内外部世界的体悟与反思,在实践层面来源于东盟国家之间以及东盟与外部世界互动的经验逻辑。“东盟世界”不是单一静态概念,而是动态的概念集合,可以从宏观层面展现东盟建立的跨区域全球网络的搭建过程,为世界政治呈现动态的东南亚区域概念系谱图变迁,也为“全球南方”参与国际秩序构建提供范例。

冷战结束以来俄罗斯对国际秩序的认知历程及其演变逻辑

冷战结束以来俄罗斯对国际秩序的认知经历了一个曲折的发展历程:20世纪90年代中前期,俄罗斯全盘接受并极力融入美西方主导的自由国际秩序;20世纪90年代中后期开始到2007年,俄罗斯开始质疑和反思美西方自由国际秩序的制度标准和地缘安排,但依然希望被接纳;2008年至今,俄罗斯逐渐放弃对美西方自由国际秩序的幻想,并开始反击其地缘安排。2022年乌克兰危机爆发意味着俄罗斯对美西方秩序的彻底反击,并提出和推进其多极世界秩序构想。俄罗斯对国际秩序的认知历程是其自我认知与对外部世界的认知不断调适的产物,其形成过程受到多种因素的共同作用,主要包括俄罗斯的大国梦想和历史文化传统、美西方对俄罗斯的态度,以及世界政治的客观形势。

国际秩序转型:当前争论与未来走向

新千年之初,全球性危机的爆发凸显了准单极秩序的不足和全球化的负面影响,引发国际关系学者对国际秩序转型及其未来的广泛讨论。新冠疫情和乌克兰危机加速了国际秩序转型的进程,促使不同国际关系学派的代表人物提出关于国际秩序未来的各种设想。然而,由于权力中心整合的差异,以及规则共识的缺乏,这些设想短期内恐难以实现。如果没有普遍且具体的威胁出现或人类政治文化发生根本性变革,既有秩序的规则和结构将继续以被弱化的方式存在,转型期将延长,不稳定性将加剧。因此,以和平方式管理转型期至关重要,这要求国家在扩展区域联盟的同时,尊重各行为体的文化和文明差异。只有在大国之间进行对话并就管理国际体系的规则达成一致,新的国际秩序才能得以形成。在此之前,国际社会必须专注于维持稳定和管理转型期风险,以确保向未来国际秩序和平过渡。

构建正统:东晋成、康、穆三帝谥号的西周拟态论

东晋成、康、穆三帝谥号与西周成、康、穆三王谥号相同,这在魏晋南北朝时期的帝王谥号中比较罕见。成、康、穆三王是西周毋庸置疑的天下共主,东晋皇帝谥号的西周拟态现象很可能是效仿西周的“故事”进行政权正统性和合法性的构建。这种构建分为两个方面:对外而言,东晋通过册封、赐谥、接受朝贡等方式,在华夷体系下构建以东晋为华夏正统的天下格局;对内而言,司马皇室、门阀士族之间多方力量共同作用,利用西周诸侯拱卫周王室与士族官僚辅佐东晋皇室的相似之处,塑造皇权与士族“共天下”的政治格局。因此,东晋成、康、穆三帝谥号的选定是多方合力作用的结果。

“后历史”:理论内涵、影响因素与秩序展望——福山“历史终结”思想批判

福山认为历史“终结”后进入“后历史”,“后历史”是自由民主制在世界各地推广的历史,是人类历史的新时代。福山先后确认并分析了影响自由民主制运行的多种因素,但他相信自由民主制是历史的方向,因为它能满足欲求“承认”的人性需要。“后历史”的世界包括民主的和平地带与非民主的战争地带,福山主张“民主国家”应采取措施推动“非民主国家”民主化。

《俄罗斯联邦对外政策构想》与俄对外政策未来走向

2023年3月俄罗斯发布了普京自2012年入主克里姆林宫10多年来第三版《俄罗斯联邦对外政策构想》。三个版本的《构想》都强调发展与近邻关系,强调国家领土安全与主权安全。前两版《构想》将欧盟、美国视为优先发展的伙伴,2023年版《构想》将欧盟、美国视为侵害俄罗斯国家利益的主要国际力量,但俄罗斯仍然对美欧保持开放务实的合作态度。最新版《构想》中最重要的变化是俄罗斯希望借助亚太地区的多边行为体抗衡美西方,加速整合亚太主要力量,以确保欧亚地区的稳定。以往俄罗斯对外政策布局呈现的是稳中有进、通中有度的特点,以维护国家利益为基础,进攻和防御兼顾,在主要力量之间寻求平衡,实现国家利益最大化。预测未来,由乌克兰危机引发的美西方对俄罗斯持续加码的全方位、多领域制裁使俄罗斯目前无法就应对美西方的政策举措做出更多自我调节,只能暂时通过拉开距离的方式,等待找到修复关系的办法,同时保证国家利益不受侵害。

现代化进程中的乡村人心秩序

人心秩序是人在解决生存和发展所面临的问题时,通过内在自律和外部和谐所形成的内部心境稳定、一致协调的精神状态。人心秩序是生存环境、制度规范和内心准则互动调适的结果,是美好生活的根基。变动不居的现代化进程,瓦解了传统的“结构—文化”规范,而新的维系体系尚未确立,新旧交替之间导致部分乡村民众精神信仰的没落、个体价值的泛化和生命意义的缺失,乡村人心秩序出现失衡失调。新时代,只有从重建乡村共同体、完善创新乡村治理、重塑人生信仰和树立核心价值观念入手,才能重构健康良好的人心秩序,为乡村振兴打下坚实的软件基础。