Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity ana...Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on （1） a screening method （Morris） for qualitative ranking of parameters, and （2） a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model （RSMSobol）. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters＇ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model （RSM） were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.展开更多
A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, ...A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model＇s applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin＇anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model＇s applicability.展开更多
Along with the rapid development of computer and GIS technology, hydrological models have progressed from lumped to distributed models. TOPMODEL, a bridge between lumped and distributed models, is a semi-distributed m...Along with the rapid development of computer and GIS technology, hydrological models have progressed from lumped to distributed models. TOPMODEL, a bridge between lumped and distributed models, is a semi-distributed model in which the predominant factors determining the formation of runoff are derived from the topography of the basin. A test application of TOPMODEL in the Buliu River Basin is presented. For the sake of comprehensively evaluating the TOPMODEL, the Xin’anjiang model, a classic lumped hydrological model, was also applied in the basin. The structural differences and the simulation results of the two models are compared and analyzed.展开更多
The ecological protection of the inter-provincial river basin of Xin’anjiang River takes the ecological compensation mechanism as the starting point and achieves good results.The success of the mechanism is best refl...The ecological protection of the inter-provincial river basin of Xin’anjiang River takes the ecological compensation mechanism as the starting point and achieves good results.The success of the mechanism is best reflected in its innovation of public policy supply,which is not only a vivid practice of Xi Jinping’s ecological civilization thought in the new era,but also establishes a model for absorption,transformation and export of policy supply.The effective supply of public policies on ecological environment is the realistic choice for the construction of ecological civilization in the new era.展开更多
中小河流洪水大多位于资料短缺的山丘区,具有突发性强,汇流时间短的特点,已成为当前防洪工作的重点和难点。新安江模型和SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型都是应用广泛的水文模型,但其在中小河流洪水模拟中的对比分析及效果评...中小河流洪水大多位于资料短缺的山丘区,具有突发性强,汇流时间短的特点,已成为当前防洪工作的重点和难点。新安江模型和SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型都是应用广泛的水文模型,但其在中小河流洪水模拟中的对比分析及效果评估方面还鲜有研究。以北潦南河为例,建立了日尺度和小时尺度的新安江模型和SWAT模型,评估2种模型在径流深、洪峰流量和峰现时间等关键要素方面的计算效果,分析各自优缺点。结果表明,在率定期间,新安江模型相对径流误差(RRE)、洪峰流量相对误差(RPE)和峰现时间误差(PTE)平均值分别为-2.6%、-4.3%、-0.3 h, SWAT模型RRE、RPE和PTE平均值分别为-4.3%、-3.3%、-0.1 h,新安江模型在RRE方面优于SWAT模型,但SWAT模型在RPE、PTE和多峰洪水模拟方面则优于新安江模型;在验证期得出了与率定期相同的结论。展开更多
In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out ...In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan(WRF)and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with the three water sources Xin an River model.The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF;the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF,but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14%smaller than WRF.Overall,the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin.Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value,and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41271003)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grants No. 2010CB428403 and 2010CB951103)
文摘Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on （1） a screening method （Morris） for qualitative ranking of parameters, and （2） a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model （RSMSobol）. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters＇ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model （RSM） were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
基金supported by the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology) (Grants No.GYHY200706037, GYHY (QX) 2007-6-1,GYHY200906007,and GYHY201006038)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.50479017 and 40971016)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University (Grant No.IRT0717)
文摘A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model＇s applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin＇anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model＇s applicability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 50479017)
文摘Along with the rapid development of computer and GIS technology, hydrological models have progressed from lumped to distributed models. TOPMODEL, a bridge between lumped and distributed models, is a semi-distributed model in which the predominant factors determining the formation of runoff are derived from the topography of the basin. A test application of TOPMODEL in the Buliu River Basin is presented. For the sake of comprehensively evaluating the TOPMODEL, the Xin’anjiang model, a classic lumped hydrological model, was also applied in the basin. The structural differences and the simulation results of the two models are compared and analyzed.
文摘The ecological protection of the inter-provincial river basin of Xin’anjiang River takes the ecological compensation mechanism as the starting point and achieves good results.The success of the mechanism is best reflected in its innovation of public policy supply,which is not only a vivid practice of Xi Jinping’s ecological civilization thought in the new era,but also establishes a model for absorption,transformation and export of policy supply.The effective supply of public policies on ecological environment is the realistic choice for the construction of ecological civilization in the new era.
文摘中小河流洪水大多位于资料短缺的山丘区,具有突发性强,汇流时间短的特点,已成为当前防洪工作的重点和难点。新安江模型和SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型都是应用广泛的水文模型,但其在中小河流洪水模拟中的对比分析及效果评估方面还鲜有研究。以北潦南河为例,建立了日尺度和小时尺度的新安江模型和SWAT模型,评估2种模型在径流深、洪峰流量和峰现时间等关键要素方面的计算效果,分析各自优缺点。结果表明,在率定期间,新安江模型相对径流误差(RRE)、洪峰流量相对误差(RPE)和峰现时间误差(PTE)平均值分别为-2.6%、-4.3%、-0.3 h, SWAT模型RRE、RPE和PTE平均值分别为-4.3%、-3.3%、-0.1 h,新安江模型在RRE方面优于SWAT模型,但SWAT模型在RPE、PTE和多峰洪水模拟方面则优于新安江模型;在验证期得出了与率定期相同的结论。
基金Supported by Open Project Fund of China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(2023BHR-Y26)Innovation Project Fund of Wuhan Metropolitan Area Meteorological Joint Science and Technology(WHCSQY202305)+1 种基金Innovation and Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J019)Project of Huanggang Meteorological Bureau's Scientific Research(2022Y02).
文摘In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting,this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan(WRF)and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with the three water sources Xin an River model.The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF;the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF,but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14%smaller than WRF.Overall,the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin.Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value,and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models.
