Influencing factors of gas content evaluation for shale gas:a case study of Lower Paleozoic Wuling fold belt in Upper Yangtze Basin

Factors of shale gas accumulation can be divided into the external and internal factors,according to accumulation mechanism and characteristics of shale gas. The internal factors mainly refer to parameters of organic geochemistry,mineral components and physical parameters. Six factors were presented in this study,i. e.organic matter,maturity,quartz,carbonate,clay mineral and pore. The external factors mainly refer to geologic environment of shale gas reservoir,including four factors: temperature,pressure,depth and thickness.Based on the experiment results of 26 samples of drilling cores from Wuling fold belt in Lower Paleozoic Silurian of the Upper Yangtze Basin,combined with the integrated analysis of geology,logging and test,the correlation of the gas content of shale gas to the above-mentioned ten factors was concluded. Six important evaluation indicators were preliminarily established in the gas-bearing core area of marine shale in the Upper Yangtze Basin.

Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

Spatio-temporal variability of terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River Basin: Response to climate changes

The Yangtze River Basin(YRB)is an important region for China's economic development.However,it has a complex terrain layout,most of which is affected by monsoon weather,and the geographical and temporal distribution of water resources is severely unbalanced.Therefore,the detailed analysis of spatio-temporal water mass changes is helpful to the development and rational utilization of water resources in the YRB.In this study,the variation of terrestrial water storage(TWS)is monitored by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)satellite gravity.We find that the University of Texas Center for Space Research(CSR)solution shows a notable difference with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL)in space,but the general trend is consistent in time series.Then the GRACE inferred water mass variation reveals that the YRB has experienced several drought and flood events over the past two decades.Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)results are similar to GRACE.Furthermore,the overall precipitation trend tends to be stable in space,but it is greatly influenced by the strong El Nino-~Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which is the response to global climate change.The upper YRB is less affected by ENSO and shows a more stable water storage signal with respect to the lower YRB.

The Relationship between Water Resources Use Efficiency and Scientific and Technological Innovation Level: Case Study of Yangtze River Basin in China

The Yangtze River Basin’s water resource utilization efficiency(WUE)and scientific and technological innovation level(STI)are closely connected,and the comprehension of these relationships will help to improve WUE and promote local economic growth and conservation of water.This study uses 19 provinces and regions along the Yangtze River’s mainstream from 2009 to 2019 as its research objects and uses a Vector Auto Regression(VAR)model to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination degree(CCD)between the two subsystems of WUE and STI.The findings show that:(1)Both the WUE and STI in the Yangtze River Basin showed an upward trend during the study period,but the STI effectively lagged behind the WUE;(2)The CCD of the two subsystems generally showed an upward trend,and the CCD of each province was improved to varying degrees,but the majority of regions did not develop a high-quality coordination stage;(3)The CCD of the two systems displayed apparent positive spatial autocorrelation in the spatial correlation pattern,and there were only two types:high-high(H-H)urbanization areas and low-low(L-L)urbanization areas;(4)The STI showed no obvious response to the impact of the WUE,while the WUE responded greatly to the STI,and both of them were highly dependent on themselves.Optimizing their interaction mechanisms should be the primary focus of high-quality development in the basin of the Yangtze River in the future.These results give the government an empirical basis to enhance the WUE and promote regional sustainable development.

Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from E1 Nifio to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong E1 Nifio in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 system.The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression.The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation.The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months.However,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts.The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured.This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

The Impact of Atmospheric Heat Sources over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Tropical Western Pacific on the Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze-River Basin

The variability of the summer rainfall over China is analyzed using the EOF procedure with a new parameter （namely, mode station variance percentage） based on 1951-2000 summer rainfall data from 160 stations in China. Compared with mode variance friction, the mode station variance percentage not only reveals more localized characteristics of the variability of the summer rainfall, but also helps to distinguish the regions with a high degree of dominant EOF modes representing the analyzed observational variable. The atmospheric circulation diagnostic studies with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data from 1966 to 2000 show that in summer, abundant （scarce） rainfall in the belt-area from the upper-middle reaches of the Yangtze River northeastward to the Huaihe River basin is linked to strong （weak） heat sources over the eastern Tibetan Plateau, while the abundant （scarce） rainfall in the area to the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River is closely linked to the weak （strong） heat sources over the tropical western Pacific.

Changing features of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin during 1961-2002

The total precipitation of the highest 1 day, 3 day, 5 day and 7 day precipitation amount （R1 D, R3D, R5D and R7D） in the Yangtze River basin was analyzed with the help of linear trend analysis and continuous wavelet transform method. The research results indicated that： 1） Spatial distribution of RID is similar in comparison with that of R3D, R5D and R7D. The Jialingjiang and Hanjiang river basins are dominated by decreasing trend, which is significant at 〉95% confidence level in Jialingjiang River basin and insignificant at 〉95% confidence level in Hanjiang River basin. The southern part of the Yangtze River basin and the western part of the upper Yangtze River basin are dominated by significant increasing trend of RID extreme precipitation at 〉95% confidence level. 2） As for the R3D, R5D and R7D, the western part of the upper Yangtze River basin is dominated by significant increasing trend at 〉95% confidence level. The eastern part of the upper Yangtze River basin is dominated by decreasing trend, but is insignificant at 〉95% confidence level. The middle and lower Yangtze River basin is dominated by increasing trend, but insignificant at 〉95% confidence level. 3） The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are intensified over time. Precipitation anomalies indicated that the southeastern part, southern part and southwestern part of the Yangtze River basin are dominated by positive extreme precipitation anomalies between 1993-2002 and 1961-1992. The research results of this text indicate that the occurrence probability of flash flood is higher in the western part of the upper Yangtze River basin and the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, esp. in the southwestern and southeastern parts of the Yangtze River basin.

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance.Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band.We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall.However,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall directly.Although interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high.The ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

Sources of Subseasonal Prediction Skill for Heatwaves over the Yangtze River Basin Revealed from Three S2S Models

Based on the reforecast data(1999–2010)of three operational models[the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the U.S.(NCEP)and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)]that participated in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction(S2S)project,we identified the major sources of subseasonal prediction skill for heatwaves over the Yangtze River basin(YRB).The three models show limited prediction skills in terms of the fraction of correct predictions for heatwave days in summer;the Heidke Skill Score drops quickly after a 5-day forecast lead and falls down close to zero beyond the lead time of 15 days.The superior skill of the ECMWF model in predicting the intensity and duration of the YRB heatwave is attributable to its fidelity in capturing the phase evolution and amplitude of high-pressure anomalies associated with the intraseasonal oscillation and the dryness of soil moisture induced by less precipitation via the land–atmosphere coupling.The effects of 10–30-day and 30–90-day circulation prediction skills on heatwave predictions are comparable at shorter forecast leads(10 days),while the biases in 30–90-day circulation amplitude prediction show close connection with the degradation of heatwave prediction skill at longer forecast leads(>15–20 days).The biases of intraseasonal circulation anomalies further affect precipitation anomalies and thus land conditions,causing difficulty in capturing extremely hot days and their persistence in the S2S models.

The Upstream ＂Strong Signals＂ of the Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau during a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Yangtze River Basin

A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin （YRB） during July 11-13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream ＂strong signals＂ of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau （TP）. The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July （temporal resolution： 6 hours）. By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream ＂strong signals＂ related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TE The ＂convergence zone＂ of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this ＂convergence zone＂ coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence]convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream ＂strong signals＂ are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.

Runoff variations in the Yangtze River Basin and sub-basins based on GRACE, hydrological models, and in-situ data

Water budget closure is a method used to study the balance of basin water storage and the dynamics of relevant hydrological components(e.g.,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and runoff).When water budget closure is connected with terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)estimated from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)data,variations in basin runoff can be understood comprehensively.In this study,total runoff variations in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)and its sub-basins are examined in detail based on the water budget closure equation.We compare and combine mainstream precipitation and evapotranspiration models to determine the best estimate of precipitation minus evapotranspiration.In addition,we consider human water consumption,which has been neglected in earlier studies,and discuss its impact.To evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the combined hydrological models in estimating subsurface runoff,we collect discharge variations derived from in situ observations in the YRB and its sub-basins and compare these data with the models’final estimated runoff variations.The estimated runoff variations suggest that runoff over the YRB has been increasing,especially in the lower sub-basins and in the post-monsoon season,and is accompanied by apparent terrestrial water loss.

Capability of TMPA products to simulate streamflow in upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins on Tibetan Plateau

Due to the high elevation, complex terrain, severe weather, and inaccessibility, direct meteorological observations do not exist over large portions of the Tibetan Plateau, especially the western part of it. Satellite rainfall estimates have been very important sources for precipitation information, particularly in rain gauge-sparse regions. In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） products 3B42, RTV5V6, and RTV7 were evaluated for their applicability to the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins on the Tibetan Plateau. Moreover, the capability of the TMPA products to simulate streamflow was also investigated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity （VIC） semi-distributed hydrological model. Results show that 3B42 performs better than RTVSV6 and RTV7, based on verification of the China Meteorological Administration （CMA） observational precipitation data. RTVSV6 can roughly capture the spatial precipitation pattern but overestimation exists throughout the entire study region. The anticipated improvements of RTV7 relative to RTVSV6 have not been realized in this study. Our results suggest that RTV7 significantly overestimates the precipitation over the two river basins, though it can capture the seasonal cycle features of precipitation. 3B42 shows the best performance in streamflow simulation of the abovementioned satellite products. Although involved in gauge adjustment at a monthly scale, 3B42 is capable of daily streamflow simulation. RTV5V6 and RTV7 have no capability to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

Intraseasonal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin

This work investigates the boreal-summer intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB)during 1979–2016,based on daily Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data.The ISV of the summer monsoon rainfall over the LYRB is mainly dominated by the lower-frequency 12–20-day variability and the higher-frequency 8–12-day variability.The lower-frequency variability is found to be related to the northwestwardpropagating quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)over the western North Pacific spanning the South China Sea(SCS)and Philippine Sea,while the higher-frequency variability is related to the southeastward propagating midlatitude wave train(MLWT).Moreover,not each active QBWO(MLWT)in the SCS(East Asia)can generate ISV components of the precipitation anomaly over the LYRB.The QBWO can change the rainfall significantly with the modulation of mean state precipitation,while the quasi-11-day mode mainly depends on the intensity of the MLWT rather than the mean precipitation change.These findings should enrich our understanding of the ISV of the East Asian summer monsoon and improve its predictability.

Impact of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics in the upper Yangtze River basin in China

It is necessary to understand vegetation dynamics and their climatic controls for sustainable ecosystem management.This study examines the vegetation dynamics and the effect of climate change on vegetation growth in the pristine conditions of 58 woodland National Nature Reserves(NNRs)located in the upper Yangtze River basin(UYRB)in China which are little influenced by human activities.Changes in the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),precipitation,and temperature in the selected NNRs were observed and analyzed for the period between 1999 and 2015.The relationship between time-lag effect of climate and changes in the NDVI were assessed using Pearson correlations.The results showed three major trends.1)The NDVI increased during the study period;this indicates an increase in the amount of green vegetation,especially due to the warmer climate during the growing season.The NDVIs in March and September were significantly affected by the temperature of the previous months.Spring temperatures increased significantly(P<0.05)and there was a delay between climatic factors and their effect on vegetation,which depended on the previous season.In particular,the spring temperature had a delayed effect on the NDVI in summer.2)The way in which vegetation responds to climatic factors varied significantly across the seasons.Temperature had a greater effect on the NDVI in spring and summer and the effect was greater at higher altitudes.A similar trend was observed for precipitation,except for altitudes of 1000–2000 m.3)Temperature had a greater effect on the NDVI in spring and autumn at higher altitudes.The same trend was observed for precipitation in summer.These findings suggest that the vegetation found in NNRs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was in good condition between 1999 and 2015 and that the growth and development of vegetation in the region has not been adversely affected by climate change.This demonstrates the effectiveness of nature reserves in protecting regional ecology and minimizing anthropogenic effects.

Water vapor transport over China and its relationship with drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin

The characteristics of water vapor transport(WVT) over China and its relationship with precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) are analyzed by using the upper-air station data in China and ECMWF reanalysis data in summer from 1981 to 2002.The results indicate that the first mode of the vertically integrated WVT is significant whose spatial distribution presents water vapor convergence or divergence in the YRB.When the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is strong and shifts southward and westward, the Indian Monsoon Low Pressure(IMLP) is weak, and the northern part of China stands behind the middle and high latitude trough, a large amount of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal(BOB), the South China Sea(SCS) and the western Pacific forms a strong and steady southwest WVT band and meets the strong cold water vapor from northern China in the YRB, thus it is likely to cause flood in the YRB.When WPSH is weak and shifts northward and eastward, IMLP is strong, and there is nearly straight west wind over the middle and high latitude, it is unfavorable for oceanic vapor extending to China and no steady and strong southwest WVT exists in the region south of the YRB.Meanwhile, the cold air from northern China is weak and can hardly be transported to the YRB.This brings on no obvious water vapor convergence, and then less precipitation in the YRB.

Carbon sequestration in biomass and soil following reforestation:a case study of the Yangtze River Basin

The effect of reforestation on carbon sequestration has been extensively studied but there is less understanding of the changes that stand age and vegetation types have on changes in biomass carbon and soil organic carbon(SOC)after reforestation.In this study,150 reforested plots were sampled across six provinces and one municipality in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)during 2017 and 2018 to estimate carbon storage in biomass and soil.The results illustrate that site-averaged SOC was greater than site-averaged biomass carbon.There was more carbon sequestered in the biomass than in the soil.Biomass carbon accumulated rapidly in the initial 20 years after planting.In contrast,SOC sequestration increased rapidly after 20 years.In addition,evergreen species had higher carbon density in both biomass and soil than deciduous species and economic species(fruit trees).Carbon sequestration in evergreen and deciduous species is greater than in economic species.Our findings provide new evidence on the divergent responses of biomass and soil to carbon sequestration after reforestation with respect to stand ages and vegetation types.This study provides relevant information for ecosystem management as well as for carbon sequestration and global climate change policies.

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

The Linkage between Two Types of El Ni?o Events and Summer Streamflow over the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins

It is generally agreed that El Nino can be classified into East Pacific(EP)and Central Pacific(CP)types.Nevertheless,little is known about the relationship between these two types of El Ni?o and land surface climate elements.This study investigates the linkage between EP/CP El Ni?o and summer streamflow over the Yellow and Yangtze River basins and their possible mechanisms.Over the Yellow River basin,the anomalous streamflow always manifests as positive(negative)in EP(CP)years,with a correlation coefficient of 0.39(-0.37);while over the Yangtze River basin,the anomalous streamflow shows as positive in both EP and CP years,with correlation coefficients of 0.72 and 0.48,respectively.Analyses of the surface hydrological cycle indicate that the streamflow is more influenced by local evapotranspiration(ET)than precipitation over the Yellow River basin,while it is dominantly affected by precipitation over the Yangtze River basin.The different features over these two river basins can be explained by the anomalous atmospheric circulation,which is cyclonic(anticyclonic)north(south)of 30°N over East Asia.EP years are dominated by two anticyclones,which bring strong water vapor convergence and induce more precipitation but less ET,and subsequently increase streamflow and flooding risks.In CP years,especially over the Yellow River basin,two cyclones dominate and lead to water vapor divergence and reduce moisture arriving.Meanwhile,the ET enhances mainly due to local high surface air temperature,which further evaporates water from the soil.As a result,the streamflow decreases,which will then increase the drought risk.