Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Impacts of Weather Conditions Modified by Urban Expansion on Surface Ozone: Comparison between the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta Regions

In this paper, the online weather research and forecasting and chemistry （WRF-Chem） model is used to explore the impacts of urban expansion on regional weather conditions and its implication on surface ozone concentrations over the Pearl River Delta（PRD） and Yangtze River Delta（YRD） regions. Two scenarios of urban maps are used in the WRF-Chem to represent the early 1990s （pre-urbanization） and the current urban distribution in the PRD and the YRD. Month-long simulation results using the above land-use scenarios for March 2001 show that urbanization increases both the day- and night-time 2-m temperatures by about 0.6℃and 1.4℃, respectively. Daytime reduction in the wind speed by about 3.0 m s-1 is larger than that for the nighttime （0.5 to 2 m s-1）. The daytime increase in the PBL height （〉 200 m） is also larger than the nighttime （50-100 m）. The meteorological conditions modified by urbanization lead to detectable ozone-concentration changes in the PRD and the YRD. Urbanization increases the nighttime surface-ozone concentrations by about 4.7%-8.5% and by about 2.9%-4.2% for the daytime. In addition to modifying individual meteorological variables, urbanization also enhances the convergence zones, especially in the PRD. More importantly, urbanization has different effects on the surface ozone for the PRD and the YRD, presumably due to their urbanization characteristics and geographical locations. Even though the PRD has a smaller increase in the surface temperature than the YRD, it has （a） weaker surface wind speed, （b） smaller increase in PBL heights, and （c） stronger convergence zones. The latter three factors outweighed the temperature increase and resulted in a larger ozone enhancement in the PRD than the YRD.

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Daily Air Quality Index in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China During 2014 and 2016

Urban air pollution is a prominent problem related to the urban development in China, especially in the densely populated urban agglomerations. Therefore, scientific examination of regional variation of air quality and its dominant factors is of great importance to regional environmental management. In contrast to traditional air pollution researches which only concentrate on a single year or a single pollutant, this paper analyses spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of air quality in disparate regions based on the air quality index(AQI) of the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD) of China from 2014 to 2016. Results show that the annual average value of the AQI in the YRD region decreases from 2014 to 2016 and exhibit a basic characteristic of ‘higher in winter, lower in summer and slightly high in spring and autumn'. The attainment rate of the AQI shows an apparently spatial stratified heterogeneity, Hefei metropolitan area and Nanjing metropolitan area keeping the worst air quality. The frequency of air pollution occurring in large regions was gradually decreasing during the study period. Drawing from entropy method analysis, industrialization and urbanization represented by per capita GDP and total energy consumption were the most important factors. Furthermore, population agglomeration is a factor that cannot be ignored especially in some mega-cities. Limited to data collection, more research is needed to gain insight into the spatiotemporal pattern and influence mechanism in the future.

Surface Water Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta:Patterns and Countermeasures

On the basis of field investigations, observations andexperimental data combined with environmental monitoring information,the status and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface waterpollution over the past ten years in the Yangtze River Delta havebeen assessed. The water quality of large rivers is still very goodbut most of the medium-sized and small rivers have been veryseriously polluted. The appearance of black and odorous conditions inrivers in the urban areas has increased due to serious pollution byorganic matter with consequent high oxygen demand. Annual increasesin N and P concentrations in lakes have accelerated eutrophication.The water quality of river sin small towns is rapidly deteriorating.The main sources of surface water pollution include industrial anddomestic sewage, animal manures, chemical fertilizers in farmland,and polluted sediments in rivers and lakes.

Articulating China's Science and Technology:Knowledge Collaboration Networks Within and Beyond the Yangtze River Delta Megalopolis in China

In this paper, we reconsider the defining but often overlooked ‘hinge' function of megalopolises by analyzing how megalopolises have articulated national and international urban systems in the context of a globalizing knowledge economy. Taking the case of China's Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region, we particularly focus on knowledge circulation within and beyond the YRD region by analyzing the pattern and process of knowledge collaboration at different geographical scales during the 2004–2014 period. Results show that the structure of scientific knowledge collaboration as reflected by co-publications has been strongest at the national scale whereas that of technological knowledge collaboration as measured by co-patents has been strongest at the global scale. Despite this difference, the structure of both scientific and technological knowledge collaboration has been functionally polycentric at the megalopolitan scale but become less so at the national and global scales. The ‘globally connected but locally disconnected' pattern of Shanghai's external knowledge collaboration suggests that the gateway role of the YRD megalopolis in promoting knowledge collaboration at different geographical scales will take time before it is fully realized.

Spatial Pattern and Benefit Allocation in Regional Collaborative Innovation of the Yangtze River Delta, China

As an important step enhancing regional innovation, researches on collaborative innovation have attracted much more attention recently. One significant reason is that cities can get excessive benefits while they take collaborative innovation activities. Based on the theories of innovation geography, this paper takes the collaborative innovation of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) Urban Agglomeration as a case study and measures the collaborative innovation capacity from innovation actors and innovation cities by adopting the catastrophe progression model. Then on this basis, the study depicts the spatial pattern and the benefit allocation of collaborative innovation by using the coupling collaborative degree model and benefit allocation model of collaborative innovation. The results show that:1) The collaborative innovation capacity of cities in the Yangtze River Delta has strengthened largely, while the capacity still is not high enough. Cities with high collaborative innovation capacity are concentrated in Shanghai, the southern part of Jiangsu, and Hangzhou Bay, yet the cooperation of the universities-industries-research institutes need to improve. 2) The spatial pattern of collaborative innovation of the Yangtze River Delta presents several innovation circles, which are in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Circle, Nanjing Metropolitan Circle, Hangzhou Metropolitan Circle, Ningbo Metropolitan Circle, and Hefei Metropolitan Circle. Shanghai plays the role of the central city of collaborative innovation, while Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Hefei act as sub-central cities. 3) The benefit each city allocated from collaborative innovation activities has increased. However, the allocations of the benefit show that cities with higher innovation capacity have significant advantages in most cases, which lead to serious disparities in space.

Exploring Regional Innovation Growth Through A Network Approach:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region,China

As the leading urban agglomeration in China,the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is experiencing a factor-driven to innovationdriven transition.However,the dynamics of regional innovation growth are not yet fully understood.This paper combines the complex network methodology with spatial econometrics to disentangle the contributions of innovation endowments,innovation network flows,and innovation network positions to regional innovation growth,as well as their spatial spillover effects.The primary findings suggest that regional innovation growth results from the networked agglomeration economies,which is shaped by the interactions between agglomeration factors and network factors.Specifically,agglomeration factors play a fundamental role in regional innovation growth.In contrast,network factors,such as the network flows and network positions,may contribute to new path creation by promoting access to external innovation resources.Additionally,the institutional factors show multiplexity in fostering regional innovation patterns.Such findings indicate that the YRD region should shift the innovation growth pattern from competitive involution to mutually beneficial cooperation to reduce regional disparities.In this regard,the institutional capacity of organizing network flows and fostering reciprocal inter-city partnerships has become increasingly critical for promoting sustainable innovation and regional development.

The Impact of the Upgrading of Industrial Structure in the Yangtze River Delta on the Urban-Rural Income Gap

Firstly,this paper conducts theoretical analysis and current situation analysis,and then proposes research hypotheses.Secondly,using spatial Dubin model and partial differential method,it empirically studies the impact of industrial structure advancement and rationalization on the urban-rural income gap.The results show that:(1)Both industrial structure and urban-rural income gap have significant spatial dependence;(2)The increase in the industrial structure rationalization will narrow the urban-rural income gap in local region,while its spillover effect on neighboring areas is not obvious.(3)The impact of the industrial structure advancement on the urban-rural income gap is not linear.It is first expanded and then narrowed.The industrial structure advancement in the Yangtze River Delta will generally narrow the urban-rural income gap at this stage.Finally,this paper put forward relevant suggestions.

长三角城市群A级旅游景区时空异质性研究

城市群A级旅游景区演化研究对促进区域旅游业平衡充分发展具有重要价值.基于目的地多尺度、景区多等级及空间非稳定现实,运用多种空间分析方法,对长三角城市群A级旅游景区及影响因素的时空异质性进行研究.结果表明:(1)2001-2021年,3A、4A是长三角城市群A级旅游景区结构主体;上海、杭州、湖州、南京、安庆、金华、温州和台州的各级景区发展均较好.(2)长三角城市群A级旅游景区空间分布集聚性显著,逐渐形成“几”字形高密度景区带结构;各等级景区辐射范围不断扩大,形成东南-西北方向分布格局;城市尺度上,各等级景区都趋于均匀分布.(3)至2019年,影响A级旅游景区空间分布的因素包括旅游资源、旅游需求、旅游地交通及社会经济条件.各个因素的影响程度及其在空间上的异质性均随时间变化而变化.

长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的测度研究

现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的经济基础,也是长三角地区在中国式现代化中更好发挥引领示范作用的核心要求。然而,目前鲜见关于长三角现代化产业体系建设的研究。为此,基于现代化产业体系的结构、特征和支撑三大维度,构建了长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的评价指标体系,并采用熵值法测度了长三角27个城市2013—2022年的现代化产业体系建设水平。基于测算结果,首先分析了长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的时空特征,然后使用Dagum基尼系数揭示了长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的区域差异及其来源,并使用QAP分析方法识别了差异的成因。研究发现:第一,在样本考察期内,长三角现代化产业体系的总体建设水平虽不高,但呈稳步上升态势,其中,产业支撑体系增长幅度最大,然后依次为产业特征体系和产业结构体系。第二,样本考察期内,长三角各区域的现代化产业体系建设水平均在不断提高,但存在明显的空间非均衡性,形成了“上海>江苏/浙江>安徽”的格局。第三,总体差异不断增大,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,安徽和江苏对区域内差异的贡献率较大。第四,产业集群优势差异是长三角现代化产业体系建设水平差异的主要影响因素,其他影响因素按影响强度从高到底依次为产业高端化差异、科技创新差异、人力资源差异、现代金融差异、企业竞争力差异和产业链现代化差异。基于研究结论,提出以下建议:充分激活各类要素,加快推进产业体系现代化进程;明确建设短板和区位特征,制定差异化发展战略;加强区域协同发展,缩小地区发展差异。

长三角地区农作物温室气体排放特征研究

为有效指导农业温室气体减排政策的制定,本研究分别采用CH4MOD模型和排放因子法估算了2018年长三角地区农作物甲烷(CH_(4))和氧化亚氮(N_(2)O)排放,并分析其时空分布规律,最终建立了2018年长三角地区农作物1 km×1 km网格化温室气体排放清单.研究结果表明:长三角稻田CH_(4)排放因子为348.54 kg/hm~2,农作物N_(2)O排放因子为0.95 kg/hm~2,与前人研究结果具有一致性.长三角地区稻田CH_(4)排放为176.9万t(折合约3 714.9万t CO_(2)当量),最主要排放源为单季稻稻田;农作物N_(2)O排放为15 114.9 t(折合约450.4万t CO_(2)当量),小麦是主要贡献源.CH_(4)和N_(2)O排放均主要来源于江苏省和安徽省,且集中在4—8月.建议加强对农业温室气体排放的管控,从源头上减少农田碳氮源的输入.

区域经济一体化进程剖析:长三角、珠三角与环渤海

在全球化迅速发展的今天,区域经济一体化已是大势所趋。长三角一体化进程可分为四个阶段,珠三角可分为三个阶段,环渤海可分为四个阶段;区域一体化不可逆转并正在加速;长三角的一体化进程最快,然后是珠三角和环渤海;要推动区域一体化,适应市场要求、正确理论指导和政府宏观引导三者不可或缺;一体化进程由多种因素共同决定;基础设施一体化最易实施也进展最快,产业结构一体化最难以协调;一体化还处于探索阶段,其目标模式还没有出现。

长江三角洲城市群霾的演变特征及影响因素研究

重建了长江三角洲1961～2007年霾气候数据序列，分析了霾日数的时空变化特征及城乡差异，并探讨了大气污染以及地面和近地层气象条件对霾发生的影响．结果表明，利用湿度-能见度指数参与霾气候序列重建的方法具有一定的合理性和科学性．过去47a间，长江三角洲霾日数总体上呈逐渐增多的趋势，并且四季霾同数都增加．空间上，整个长江三角洲霾日数基本上都呈增加趋势，并以杭州和南京增加最多．近30a来长江三角洲大城市、中等城市和城镇乡村站间霾日数变化具有明显差异．地面气象要素中风速和最长连续无降水日数与霾发生具有较好的对应关系．在霾天气过程和对应的清洁过程，近地层温度、位势高度和风场也都具有明显的差异．长江三角洲霾变化趋势与我国京津冀、珠江三角洲等地的变化一致．区域大气污染物排放量的增加，尤其是细颗粒物的增加是霾出现频率增加的可能原因，全球气候变化以及区域城市化造成的气象条件改变也有利于霾日的增加．

无锡市大气PM(2.5)中黑碳的粒径分布与混合态特征

针对长江三角洲地区PM2.5中的重要组分黑碳（BC）气溶胶,2010～2011年利用单颗粒黑碳光度计（SP2）,对江苏省无锡市夏冬两季BC气溶胶的质量浓度、粒径分布及单颗粒混合态进行了连续在线观测.结果表明,无锡市冬季BC质量浓度（6.1μg/m3）是夏季（2.5μg/m3）的2.4倍,内混态BC比例（NIB）冬季（64.8%）也显著高于夏季（44.6%）,说明冬季BC污染与来外来污染传输有关.反向轨迹分析表明,来自华北平原的污染气团输入是冬季高浓度BC污染的首要原因.NIB的日变化趋势与BC质量浓度的完全相反.午后BC质量浓度最低时NIB最高,反映了二次光化学产物包覆在BC颗粒外层的老化过程.此外,夏冬两季BC粒径分布保持稳定,其质量浓度峰值对应粒径在225nm左右,数浓度峰值对应粒径在120nm左右。

农户家庭农地流转行为的变迁和形成根源——1986—2005年长三角15村调查

基于1986—2005年长三角15村固定观察点的农户资料,对长三角农户家庭农地的流转进程以及形成根源进行分析。研究发现:在长三角地区,农地流转日益加速,农地集聚正由小规模向中等规模和大规模演进,农地零碎程度随之逐步下降;而由于家庭经营类型、家庭文化类型、家庭经济收入水平等家庭因素的差异和区位因素的影响,长三角农户在农地来源结构、农地流转形式、农地流转租金等方面表现出一定的差异。

上海、南京和杭州城市休闲化协调发展比较研究

城市休闲化是后工业化时代城市发展的一种形态,其系统要素的协调发展反映了城市休闲化的总体水平。通过构建评价指标体系和协调发展度模型,对1994-2013年上海、南京和杭州的城市休闲化协调发展度进行测评,并比较分析协调发展阶段、特征及驱动要素。研究发现:①上海、南京和杭州目前均处于中度协调阶段,但上海进入时间较早;上海协调发展基础最好,而杭州提升速率最快。②城市化水平、经济增长和产业结构是城市休闲化的驱动要素。上海和杭州的城市化水平、南京和杭州的人均GDP、杭州的第三产业占比与城市休闲化协调发展关系更为紧密。③城市化水平极大影响上海城市休闲化协调发展,而第三产业占比则对南京和杭州影响更大。

长三角地区转型发展的进程评价

为全面认识长三角地区近年来转型发展的进展情况,文章依据现代化的发展诉求,构建转型发展评价指标体系,确立两个评价指标:转型发展水平和转型发展指数,分别从横向和纵向两个方面对长三角转型发展情况进行比较分析。横向结果显示,长三角地区的转型发展水平位于全国前列,尤其社会转型和生态转型方面;纵向结果表明,自2000年以来长三角地区转型发展总体呈现良好的变化趋势,但是各领域的转型尚不够协调,主要是经济增长效益与经济结构优化进展较慢,今后需要加大转型力度。

两岸区域经济合作的方式与路径研究——基于长三角的两岸产业合作现状及走势

两岸经济合作是在经济全球化的大背景下形成的。尽管长期以来由于政治因素的干扰,两岸缺乏机制化的合作基础,但基于市场、要素禀赋和优势互补的需求,两岸逐步形成多种形式的区域范围合作模式,这在长三角区域表现得更为明显。本文通过对长三角地区两岸产业合作形成动因、格局与形态的分析,指出在区域经济整合加快及两岸签署ECFA的新形势下,可通过点对点的区域合作试点有效提升两岸经济合作的层次与水平。

国际会议期间大气污染应急措施改善嘉兴市空气质量效果分析

为研究2015年世界互联网大会期间嘉兴及周边省市采取大气污染应急防治措施对嘉兴市及长三角区域空气质量的影响,利用长三角区域28个主要城市（包括嘉兴市）国控点观测数据,对比分析了近3a嘉兴市和长三角区域管控期同期空气质量情况,发现2015年管控期（12月8—18日）和2013—2014年同期嘉兴市PM（10）年均质量浓度均低于长三角平均浓度,而PM（2.5）,NO2和SO2年均质量浓度总体高于长三角平均浓度;管控期嘉兴市PM（10）和SO2较2014年同期分别下降17.7%和38.1%。为了排除气象条件对污染物的影响,从管控前（12月1—7日）选取与会期（12月16—18日）气象条件相似的时段进行空气质量分析。结果表明,会期SO2、NO2、PM（2.5）和PM（10）平均浓度较管控前（12月2—4日）分别下降了42.7%、11.5%、13.4% 和 27.0%。同时,基于HYSPLIT方法和浓度权重分析讨论了管控期间（12月8—18日）长三角区域发生的2次重污染过程中嘉兴市PM（2.5）的来源,发现管控期间西北方向长距离输送对嘉兴市PM（2.5）浓度影响较大,看来其潜在来源主要集中在江苏、安徽、山东、河北、内蒙等省和自治区,浙江本地对其细颗粒浓度贡献较小。总体来说,在没有明显长距离输送和不利天气条件下,互联网大会空气质量保障措施对嘉兴市乃至长三角区域冬季空气质量均有明显改善作用。

长三角地区中小企业技术创新能力研究:问题与对策

介绍长三角地区16个地级以上城市的中小企业技术创新能力的现有水平和分布状况。根据各城市中小企业技术创新能力的大小将16个城市划分为三类,进而识别并分析16个城市在中小企业技术创新能力建设方面存在的主要共性问题,以及三类城市在中小企业技术创新能力建设方面各自存在的主要个性问题,最后提出解决这些共性问题与个性问题的对策建议。