Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Impacts of Weather Conditions Modified by Urban Expansion on Surface Ozone: Comparison between the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta Regions

In this paper, the online weather research and forecasting and chemistry （WRF-Chem） model is used to explore the impacts of urban expansion on regional weather conditions and its implication on surface ozone concentrations over the Pearl River Delta（PRD） and Yangtze River Delta（YRD） regions. Two scenarios of urban maps are used in the WRF-Chem to represent the early 1990s （pre-urbanization） and the current urban distribution in the PRD and the YRD. Month-long simulation results using the above land-use scenarios for March 2001 show that urbanization increases both the day- and night-time 2-m temperatures by about 0.6℃and 1.4℃, respectively. Daytime reduction in the wind speed by about 3.0 m s-1 is larger than that for the nighttime （0.5 to 2 m s-1）. The daytime increase in the PBL height （〉 200 m） is also larger than the nighttime （50-100 m）. The meteorological conditions modified by urbanization lead to detectable ozone-concentration changes in the PRD and the YRD. Urbanization increases the nighttime surface-ozone concentrations by about 4.7%-8.5% and by about 2.9%-4.2% for the daytime. In addition to modifying individual meteorological variables, urbanization also enhances the convergence zones, especially in the PRD. More importantly, urbanization has different effects on the surface ozone for the PRD and the YRD, presumably due to their urbanization characteristics and geographical locations. Even though the PRD has a smaller increase in the surface temperature than the YRD, it has （a） weaker surface wind speed, （b） smaller increase in PBL heights, and （c） stronger convergence zones. The latter three factors outweighed the temperature increase and resulted in a larger ozone enhancement in the PRD than the YRD.

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Daily Air Quality Index in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China During 2014 and 2016

Urban air pollution is a prominent problem related to the urban development in China, especially in the densely populated urban agglomerations. Therefore, scientific examination of regional variation of air quality and its dominant factors is of great importance to regional environmental management. In contrast to traditional air pollution researches which only concentrate on a single year or a single pollutant, this paper analyses spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of air quality in disparate regions based on the air quality index(AQI) of the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD) of China from 2014 to 2016. Results show that the annual average value of the AQI in the YRD region decreases from 2014 to 2016 and exhibit a basic characteristic of ‘higher in winter, lower in summer and slightly high in spring and autumn'. The attainment rate of the AQI shows an apparently spatial stratified heterogeneity, Hefei metropolitan area and Nanjing metropolitan area keeping the worst air quality. The frequency of air pollution occurring in large regions was gradually decreasing during the study period. Drawing from entropy method analysis, industrialization and urbanization represented by per capita GDP and total energy consumption were the most important factors. Furthermore, population agglomeration is a factor that cannot be ignored especially in some mega-cities. Limited to data collection, more research is needed to gain insight into the spatiotemporal pattern and influence mechanism in the future.

Tupu methods of spatial-temporal pattern on land use change:a case study in the Yellow River Delta

Comprehensive study on land-use change of spatial pattern and temporal process is the key component in LUCC study nowadays. Based on the theories and methods of Geo-information Tupu (Carto-methodology in Geo-information, CMGI), integration of spatial pattern and temporal processes of land-use change in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) are studied in the paper, which is supported by ERDAS and ARC/INFO software. The main contents include: (1) concept models of Tupu by spatial-temporal integration on land-use change, whose Tupu unit is synthesized by "Spatial·Attribute·Process" features and composed of relatively homogeneous geographical unit and temporal unit; (2) data sources and handling process, where four stages of spatial features in 1956, 1984, 1991, and 1996 are acquired; (3) integration of series of temporal-spatial Tupu, reconstruction series of "Arising" Tupu, spatial-temporal Process Tupu and the spatial temporal Pattern Tupu on land-use change by remap tables; (4) Pattern Tupu analysis on land-use change in YRD during 1956-1996; and (5) spatial difference of the Pattern Tupu analysis by dynamic Tupu units. The various landform units and seven sub-deltas generated by the Yellow River since 1855 are different. The Tupu analysis on land-use in the paper is a promising try on the comprehensive research of "spatial pattern of dynamic process" and "temporal process of spatial pattern" in LUCC research. The Tupu methodology would be a powerful and efficient tool on integrated studies of spatial pattern and temporal process in Geo-science.

Articulating China's Science and Technology:Knowledge Collaboration Networks Within and Beyond the Yangtze River Delta Megalopolis in China

In this paper, we reconsider the defining but often overlooked ‘hinge' function of megalopolises by analyzing how megalopolises have articulated national and international urban systems in the context of a globalizing knowledge economy. Taking the case of China's Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region, we particularly focus on knowledge circulation within and beyond the YRD region by analyzing the pattern and process of knowledge collaboration at different geographical scales during the 2004–2014 period. Results show that the structure of scientific knowledge collaboration as reflected by co-publications has been strongest at the national scale whereas that of technological knowledge collaboration as measured by co-patents has been strongest at the global scale. Despite this difference, the structure of both scientific and technological knowledge collaboration has been functionally polycentric at the megalopolitan scale but become less so at the national and global scales. The ‘globally connected but locally disconnected' pattern of Shanghai's external knowledge collaboration suggests that the gateway role of the YRD megalopolis in promoting knowledge collaboration at different geographical scales will take time before it is fully realized.

Spatial Pattern and Benefit Allocation in Regional Collaborative Innovation of the Yangtze River Delta, China

As an important step enhancing regional innovation, researches on collaborative innovation have attracted much more attention recently. One significant reason is that cities can get excessive benefits while they take collaborative innovation activities. Based on the theories of innovation geography, this paper takes the collaborative innovation of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) Urban Agglomeration as a case study and measures the collaborative innovation capacity from innovation actors and innovation cities by adopting the catastrophe progression model. Then on this basis, the study depicts the spatial pattern and the benefit allocation of collaborative innovation by using the coupling collaborative degree model and benefit allocation model of collaborative innovation. The results show that:1) The collaborative innovation capacity of cities in the Yangtze River Delta has strengthened largely, while the capacity still is not high enough. Cities with high collaborative innovation capacity are concentrated in Shanghai, the southern part of Jiangsu, and Hangzhou Bay, yet the cooperation of the universities-industries-research institutes need to improve. 2) The spatial pattern of collaborative innovation of the Yangtze River Delta presents several innovation circles, which are in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Circle, Nanjing Metropolitan Circle, Hangzhou Metropolitan Circle, Ningbo Metropolitan Circle, and Hefei Metropolitan Circle. Shanghai plays the role of the central city of collaborative innovation, while Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Hefei act as sub-central cities. 3) The benefit each city allocated from collaborative innovation activities has increased. However, the allocations of the benefit show that cities with higher innovation capacity have significant advantages in most cases, which lead to serious disparities in space.

Exploring Regional Innovation Growth Through A Network Approach:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region,China

As the leading urban agglomeration in China,the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is experiencing a factor-driven to innovationdriven transition.However,the dynamics of regional innovation growth are not yet fully understood.This paper combines the complex network methodology with spatial econometrics to disentangle the contributions of innovation endowments,innovation network flows,and innovation network positions to regional innovation growth,as well as their spatial spillover effects.The primary findings suggest that regional innovation growth results from the networked agglomeration economies,which is shaped by the interactions between agglomeration factors and network factors.Specifically,agglomeration factors play a fundamental role in regional innovation growth.In contrast,network factors,such as the network flows and network positions,may contribute to new path creation by promoting access to external innovation resources.Additionally,the institutional factors show multiplexity in fostering regional innovation patterns.Such findings indicate that the YRD region should shift the innovation growth pattern from competitive involution to mutually beneficial cooperation to reduce regional disparities.In this regard,the institutional capacity of organizing network flows and fostering reciprocal inter-city partnerships has become increasingly critical for promoting sustainable innovation and regional development.

The Impact of the Upgrading of Industrial Structure in the Yangtze River Delta on the Urban-Rural Income Gap

Firstly,this paper conducts theoretical analysis and current situation analysis,and then proposes research hypotheses.Secondly,using spatial Dubin model and partial differential method,it empirically studies the impact of industrial structure advancement and rationalization on the urban-rural income gap.The results show that:(1)Both industrial structure and urban-rural income gap have significant spatial dependence;(2)The increase in the industrial structure rationalization will narrow the urban-rural income gap in local region,while its spillover effect on neighboring areas is not obvious.(3)The impact of the industrial structure advancement on the urban-rural income gap is not linear.It is first expanded and then narrowed.The industrial structure advancement in the Yangtze River Delta will generally narrow the urban-rural income gap at this stage.Finally,this paper put forward relevant suggestions.

长三角城市群A级旅游景区时空异质性研究

城市群A级旅游景区演化研究对促进区域旅游业平衡充分发展具有重要价值.基于目的地多尺度、景区多等级及空间非稳定现实,运用多种空间分析方法,对长三角城市群A级旅游景区及影响因素的时空异质性进行研究.结果表明:(1)2001-2021年,3A、4A是长三角城市群A级旅游景区结构主体;上海、杭州、湖州、南京、安庆、金华、温州和台州的各级景区发展均较好.(2)长三角城市群A级旅游景区空间分布集聚性显著,逐渐形成“几”字形高密度景区带结构;各等级景区辐射范围不断扩大,形成东南-西北方向分布格局;城市尺度上,各等级景区都趋于均匀分布.(3)至2019年,影响A级旅游景区空间分布的因素包括旅游资源、旅游需求、旅游地交通及社会经济条件.各个因素的影响程度及其在空间上的异质性均随时间变化而变化.

长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的测度研究

现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的经济基础,也是长三角地区在中国式现代化中更好发挥引领示范作用的核心要求。然而,目前鲜见关于长三角现代化产业体系建设的研究。为此,基于现代化产业体系的结构、特征和支撑三大维度,构建了长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的评价指标体系,并采用熵值法测度了长三角27个城市2013—2022年的现代化产业体系建设水平。基于测算结果,首先分析了长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的时空特征,然后使用Dagum基尼系数揭示了长三角现代化产业体系建设水平的区域差异及其来源,并使用QAP分析方法识别了差异的成因。研究发现:第一,在样本考察期内,长三角现代化产业体系的总体建设水平虽不高,但呈稳步上升态势,其中,产业支撑体系增长幅度最大,然后依次为产业特征体系和产业结构体系。第二,样本考察期内,长三角各区域的现代化产业体系建设水平均在不断提高,但存在明显的空间非均衡性,形成了“上海>江苏/浙江>安徽”的格局。第三,总体差异不断增大,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,安徽和江苏对区域内差异的贡献率较大。第四,产业集群优势差异是长三角现代化产业体系建设水平差异的主要影响因素,其他影响因素按影响强度从高到底依次为产业高端化差异、科技创新差异、人力资源差异、现代金融差异、企业竞争力差异和产业链现代化差异。基于研究结论,提出以下建议:充分激活各类要素,加快推进产业体系现代化进程;明确建设短板和区位特征,制定差异化发展战略;加强区域协同发展,缩小地区发展差异。

长三角地区农作物温室气体排放特征研究

为有效指导农业温室气体减排政策的制定,本研究分别采用CH4MOD模型和排放因子法估算了2018年长三角地区农作物甲烷(CH_(4))和氧化亚氮(N_(2)O)排放,并分析其时空分布规律,最终建立了2018年长三角地区农作物1 km×1 km网格化温室气体排放清单.研究结果表明:长三角稻田CH_(4)排放因子为348.54 kg/hm~2,农作物N_(2)O排放因子为0.95 kg/hm~2,与前人研究结果具有一致性.长三角地区稻田CH_(4)排放为176.9万t(折合约3 714.9万t CO_(2)当量),最主要排放源为单季稻稻田;农作物N_(2)O排放为15 114.9 t(折合约450.4万t CO_(2)当量),小麦是主要贡献源.CH_(4)和N_(2)O排放均主要来源于江苏省和安徽省,且集中在4—8月.建议加强对农业温室气体排放的管控,从源头上减少农田碳氮源的输入.

基于生态水文学的黄河口湿地生态需水评价

根据生态系统保护的要求,以提高生态系统承载力、保护河口生态系统完整性和稳定性为原则,以促进区域生态系统的良性维持为目标,从生物多样性保护的角度,研究确定了23600hm2的黄河三角洲应补水的湿地恢复和保护规模。在此基础上,采用景观生态学的原理和方法,在湿地植物生理学、生态学、水文学研究基础上及遥感和GIS技术的支持下,研究水分—生态耦合作用机理,建立基于生态水文学的黄河口湿地生态需水及评价模型,并运用预案研究方法和景观生态决策支持系统的规划评价思想,预测和评价了黄河口湿地不同补水方案产生的生态效果,重点研究了丹顶鹤、东方白鹳、黑嘴鸥等指示性物种适宜生境条件与湿地补水后的生态格局变化。评价结果表明,黄河三角洲湿地具备东方白鹳及丹顶鹤等保护性鸟类的繁殖和越冬的潜在生境条件,但其生境质量并不十分理想,通过湿地补水,作为珍稀鸟类重要栖息地芦苇湿地面积从现状的10000hm2增加至22000hm2,生态承载力大幅提高;研究在统筹黄河水资源条件、水资源配置工程措施和湿地生态系统综合保护需求后,推荐提出了黄河三角洲湿地恢复和保护的3.5亿m3黄河补水量及补水时期。

应用遥感方法研究黄河三角洲地表蒸发及其与下垫面关系

文中主要应用遥感方法计算了黄河三角洲地表蒸发量及其地表特征参数。地表特征参数及其合理组合揭示出黄河三角洲下垫面的基本特征：农田植被指数和天然植被的植被指数有不同的变化规律，下垫面覆盖度低，裸地较多，地表较湿润，蒸发量较大。蒸发量时空分布主要受下垫面条件控制，滨海裸地和受人类活动影响较大的农田等地蒸发量较大，年际平均蒸发量在570～860mm之间。

黄河三角洲土壤动物多样性初步调查研究

1995～ 1996年对黄河三角洲 9个代表性样区 ,进行了土壤动物定性、定量调查 ,并对古代、近代、现代黄河三角洲 3个代表性样区开展了土壤动物周年调查 ,研究了土壤动物的种类组成、分布和季节变化 ,以及土壤动物多样性。调查研究结果 :黄河三角洲共鉴定出土壤动物 38种 ,土壤动物种类组成和数量分布因三个三角洲成土年龄不同而存在差异 ,土壤动物多样性以夏季为丰富。黄河三角洲土壤动物多样性与均匀度表现为正相关关系 。

长江三角洲地区近30年非雾天能见度特征分析

利用地面能见度观测数据和中分辨率成像光谱仪(简称M(ODIS)所提供的气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)资料,分析了中国长江三角洲地区近30年的能见度变化特征。结果表明,该地区1980—2009年能见度年均值为19.5±1.8km,其中最高值为21.9km,在1984年,最低值为16.1km在2007年。近30年能见度呈下降趋势,平均年递减率为-0.20±0.013km/a,近几年能见度趋于稳定。该地区能见度:夏季能见度最好,秋、春季次之,冬季最差;沿海地区能见度好于内陆地区,沿江(河)两岸能见度较差;沿江(河、海)地区能见度的下降速度大于其他地区,在浙江东南部沿海地区尤为明显。利用EOF方法分析长三角地区能见度,结果表明第一模态的特征向量均为正值,说明全区能见度均呈下降趋势。利用MO-DIS AOD数据分析区域性及长期能见度变化趋势与利用地面观测数据方法分析结论相一致。

长三角“人口—土地—经济—社会”城镇化的耦合协调性研究

"人口—土地—经济—社会"四维城镇化的协调,是新型城镇化进程推进与质量提高的重要条件。本文构建了"人口—土地—经济—社会"城镇化耦合协调度模型,并对长三角地区多维城镇化的耦合协调度进行了测度与对比分析。研究发现:2005~2013年长三角各个维度下城镇化发展水平在波动中呈现不断提高的趋势,在此之后各个维度下城镇化发展水平均出现逐年降低的趋势;2005~2008年长三角地区各个城市均为中低协调耦合状态,2008年之后大多数城市为中度耦合协调,小部分城市达到中高协调耦合;2015年上海、苏州、镇江、宁波处于低度协调耦合,扬州、杭州、台州处于高度协调耦合,其他城市均处于中度协调耦合。整体来说长三角地区各个城市的协调耦合程度仍有待提高。因此,长三角地区在城镇化的进程中,应从正外部性角度出发,充分发挥协调度较高城市的集聚效应;从正内部性角度扩大协调度较低城市的土地供给和调整产业结构。

无锡市大气PM(2.5)中黑碳的粒径分布与混合态特征

针对长江三角洲地区PM2.5中的重要组分黑碳（BC）气溶胶,2010～2011年利用单颗粒黑碳光度计（SP2）,对江苏省无锡市夏冬两季BC气溶胶的质量浓度、粒径分布及单颗粒混合态进行了连续在线观测.结果表明,无锡市冬季BC质量浓度（6.1μg/m3）是夏季（2.5μg/m3）的2.4倍,内混态BC比例（NIB）冬季（64.8%）也显著高于夏季（44.6%）,说明冬季BC污染与来外来污染传输有关.反向轨迹分析表明,来自华北平原的污染气团输入是冬季高浓度BC污染的首要原因.NIB的日变化趋势与BC质量浓度的完全相反.午后BC质量浓度最低时NIB最高,反映了二次光化学产物包覆在BC颗粒外层的老化过程.此外,夏冬两季BC粒径分布保持稳定,其质量浓度峰值对应粒径在225nm左右,数浓度峰值对应粒径在120nm左右。

基于Landsat TM/ETM影像的黄河三角洲盐渍土动态变化分析

通过Landsat系列卫星的TM和ETM数据的光谱特性研究和盐碱地信息模型的构建,研究了在黄河三角洲地区通过遥感手段实现对盐渍化土地退化信息提取的可行性。研究结果表明,黄河三角洲近10a来盐碱地呈现重度盐渍化加重的趋势,2007年较2003年加重趋势要比2011年较2007年加重趋势大,而2011年加重趋势趋缓,但比2003年要重,土地退化明显,即土壤盐渍化有持续加重趋势,这与人类活动紧密相关,主要表现在孤东油田的不断建设忽略了对土地的保护和合理利用,滨海区域卤水晒盐和养殖池塘的建设上;轻度盐渍化区域面积也不断增加,与人工灌区的开挖,引入黄河径流及水利工程措施有关。人类活动对土壤盐渍化影响既有积极一面,也有消极作用。

黄河三角洲地表特征参数的遥感研究

地表特征参数与下垫面特征密切相关,它是研究地表物质平衡和能量平衡的基础,因而应用遥感方法反演区域地表特征参数日益受到重视。本文主要应用现有的地表特征参数遥感反演模型,利用AVHRR和TM数据反演了黄河三角洲的地表特征参数:地表反照率、地面温度和植被指数等,并根据反演结果研究了地表特征参数及其合理组合所反映的地表特征。农田植被和天然植被的植被指数变化规律不同;在植被全覆盖区域,植被指数与反照率成幂函数关系,在极干或极湿情况下,地表温度与反照率成线性关系;地表特征参数的合理组合反映出黄河三角洲下垫面覆盖度低,裸地较多,地表较湿润,蒸发量较大。

黄河三角洲滨海滩涂多环芳烃分布及风险评估

采集黄河三角洲滨海滩涂湿地7个样地共120个表层沉积物样品,分析沉积物中16种优先控制的多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量和来源,并评价其生态风险。结果表明,沉积物中16种PAHs的平均含量为415 ng/g,其中PAHs以2~3环为主,属于中等污染水平。空间分布上,黄河口附近样地低于黄河三角洲北部和南部滨海滩涂湿地表层沉积物中PAHs含量,但不同样地间及距低潮区不同距离间PAHs含量均差异不显著。特征比值法分析表明,不同样地中PAHs来源不同,位于黄河三角洲南部的样地6表层沉积物中PAHs主要来源于草木和煤燃烧,而位于黄河三角洲北部的样地2表层沉积物中PAHs主要来源于石油燃烧、生物质燃烧和原油污染,其它样地的PAHs来源以原油污染为主。采用毒性当量因子评价法(TEQ)和平均效应区间中值商法(m-ERM-Q)分析,发现不同样地表层沉积物中∑PAHs的TEQ值均小于40 ng/g,且15种PAHs的m-ERM-Q值均低于0.1,表明PAHs的生态风险较低。