By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features ...By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.展开更多
The lower Yellow River still faces the threat of flood due to the unusual precipitation caused by global environmental change, river channel sedimentation, hidden danger in the dike and unfavorable river regime of ＂h...The lower Yellow River still faces the threat of flood due to the unusual precipitation caused by global environmental change, river channel sedimentation, hidden danger in the dike and unfavorable river regime of ＂hanging river＂. According to the characteristics of the dike-break flood of the Yellow River, this paper has simulated, in six different scenarios, the dike-break flood routing by inputting the terrain data, typical historical flood data and land use data of study area to two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The results show that： firstly, the routing process of flood will occupy other rivers on the way and return to the rivers after reaching the lower reaches; secondly, in the same river reach, flood inundating area of north band is bigger than that at corresponding location of south bank under the same historical flood; thirdly, it is different in the degree of flood inundation in different regions due to different geographical locations in flood plain; fourthly, the area of mainstream where flood is deep and flow velocity is quick is relatively smaller, but the area of non-mainstream, where flood is shallow and flow velocity is slow, is relatively big; and finally, the possible influenced area of the dike-break flood is 141,948 km^2.展开更多
It is very important to study the archaeological culture and origin of civilization in ancient China.The changes of the channels in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in the prehistoric period are part of the natur...It is very important to study the archaeological culture and origin of civilization in ancient China.The changes of the channels in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in the prehistoric period are part of the natural environmental background of the development of the ancient civilization in that area to be explored.This paper presents a series of legends,indications,scientific evidence,and macroscopic geographical background information of the evolution in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during the Longshan period.At first the river flowed from Northern Henan and Hebei to southwestern Shandong Province and Northern Anhui–Jiangsu provinces,and the mainstream of the Yellow River changed from the southeast to return to the north and flowed into the Bohai Sea in the late Longshan Period.During this period,floods were frequent.Various ethnic groups in the northern China plains suffered natural disasters and made great migrations which also contributed to the ethnic exchanges and integration.The people of the Central Plains made more dynamic adjustments in the relationship between mankind and the land by primitively escaping from the water and self–defensively controlling the rivers then to maintaining the local ecological environment by large–scale flood control measures,which promoted the settlement of Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,the urban cultural development,and social evolution.Based on these events,the culture symbol of Dayu's Flood Control could be formed.展开更多
了解未来气候变化如何影响河流冰情特征对于研究冰凌洪水灾害、水电生产以及大坝管理运行等问题至关重要。基于黄河流域气象观测数据以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中8种全球气候模式(GCMs)的日均气温数据,评估了各GCMs在分位...了解未来气候变化如何影响河流冰情特征对于研究冰凌洪水灾害、水电生产以及大坝管理运行等问题至关重要。基于黄河流域气象观测数据以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中8种全球气候模式(GCMs)的日均气温数据,评估了各GCMs在分位数增量映射(QDM)偏差校正前后对于黄河流域凌汛期日平均气温的模拟能力,预估了黄河流域未来凌汛期气温变化趋势。建立了最大冰厚以及封冻历时预测模型,并预估了黄河防凌重点区域黄河宁蒙段未来最大冰厚以及封冻历时的变化趋势。研究表明,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种气候情景下预计2015—2100年期间黄河流域凌汛期平均气温升温速率分别为0.014、0.031和0.067℃a,黄河巴彦高勒断面21世纪内最大冰厚值将会分别下降8.5、19.5和39.5 cm。SSP2-4.5情景下,随着未来气温升高,2070年之后河道断面仅存一定宽度岸冰、河道中央存在较大清沟的现象将会频繁出现。未来黄河宁蒙段巴彦高勒、三湖河口以及头道拐断面的封冻历时将会呈现出不同程度的缩短趋势,其中巴彦高勒断面缩短趋势最为明显,三种气候情景下封冻历时分别以0.13、0.28和0.66 d a的速率缩短,三湖河口及头道拐断面封冻历时缩短速率较为接近,分别为0.07、0.15、0.36以及0.08、0.17、0.39 d a。展开更多
文摘By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.
基金The State Scientific Research Plan, No.96-920-09-01
文摘The lower Yellow River still faces the threat of flood due to the unusual precipitation caused by global environmental change, river channel sedimentation, hidden danger in the dike and unfavorable river regime of ＂hanging river＂. According to the characteristics of the dike-break flood of the Yellow River, this paper has simulated, in six different scenarios, the dike-break flood routing by inputting the terrain data, typical historical flood data and land use data of study area to two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The results show that： firstly, the routing process of flood will occupy other rivers on the way and return to the rivers after reaching the lower reaches; secondly, in the same river reach, flood inundating area of north band is bigger than that at corresponding location of south bank under the same historical flood; thirdly, it is different in the degree of flood inundation in different regions due to different geographical locations in flood plain; fourthly, the area of mainstream where flood is deep and flow velocity is quick is relatively smaller, but the area of non-mainstream, where flood is shallow and flow velocity is slow, is relatively big; and finally, the possible influenced area of the dike-break flood is 141,948 km^2.
文摘It is very important to study the archaeological culture and origin of civilization in ancient China.The changes of the channels in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in the prehistoric period are part of the natural environmental background of the development of the ancient civilization in that area to be explored.This paper presents a series of legends,indications,scientific evidence,and macroscopic geographical background information of the evolution in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during the Longshan period.At first the river flowed from Northern Henan and Hebei to southwestern Shandong Province and Northern Anhui–Jiangsu provinces,and the mainstream of the Yellow River changed from the southeast to return to the north and flowed into the Bohai Sea in the late Longshan Period.During this period,floods were frequent.Various ethnic groups in the northern China plains suffered natural disasters and made great migrations which also contributed to the ethnic exchanges and integration.The people of the Central Plains made more dynamic adjustments in the relationship between mankind and the land by primitively escaping from the water and self–defensively controlling the rivers then to maintaining the local ecological environment by large–scale flood control measures,which promoted the settlement of Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,the urban cultural development,and social evolution.Based on these events,the culture symbol of Dayu's Flood Control could be formed.
文摘了解未来气候变化如何影响河流冰情特征对于研究冰凌洪水灾害、水电生产以及大坝管理运行等问题至关重要。基于黄河流域气象观测数据以及第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中8种全球气候模式(GCMs)的日均气温数据,评估了各GCMs在分位数增量映射(QDM)偏差校正前后对于黄河流域凌汛期日平均气温的模拟能力,预估了黄河流域未来凌汛期气温变化趋势。建立了最大冰厚以及封冻历时预测模型,并预估了黄河防凌重点区域黄河宁蒙段未来最大冰厚以及封冻历时的变化趋势。研究表明,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种气候情景下预计2015—2100年期间黄河流域凌汛期平均气温升温速率分别为0.014、0.031和0.067℃a,黄河巴彦高勒断面21世纪内最大冰厚值将会分别下降8.5、19.5和39.5 cm。SSP2-4.5情景下,随着未来气温升高,2070年之后河道断面仅存一定宽度岸冰、河道中央存在较大清沟的现象将会频繁出现。未来黄河宁蒙段巴彦高勒、三湖河口以及头道拐断面的封冻历时将会呈现出不同程度的缩短趋势,其中巴彦高勒断面缩短趋势最为明显,三种气候情景下封冻历时分别以0.13、0.28和0.66 d a的速率缩短,三湖河口及头道拐断面封冻历时缩短速率较为接近,分别为0.07、0.15、0.36以及0.08、0.17、0.39 d a。
