Spatial Pattern of Cotton Yield Variability and Its Response to Climate Change in Cotton Belt of Pakistan

Cotton is a revenue source for cotton-producing countries;as the second-largest crop in Pakistan,it significantly contributes to its economy.Over the past few decades,cotton productivity has become unstable in Pakistan,and climate change is one of the main factors that impact cotton yield.Due to climate change,it becomes very important to understand the change trend and its impact on cotton yield at the regional level.Here,we investigate the relationship of standardized cotton yield variability with the variability of climate factors using a 15-yr moving window.The piecewise regression was fitted to obtain the trend-shifting point of climate factors.The results show that precipitation has experienced an overall decreasing trend of–0.64 mm/yr during the study period,with opposing trends of–1.39 mm/yr and 1.52 mm/yr before and after the trend-shifting point,respectively.We found that cotton yield variability increased at a rate of 0.17%/yr,and this trend was highly correlated with the variability of climate factors.The multiple regression analysis explains that climate variability is a dominant factor and controlled 81%of the cotton production in the study area from 1990 to 2019,while it controlled 73%of the production from 1990 to 2002 and 84%from 2002 to 2019.These findings reveal that climate factors affact the distinct spatial pattern of changes in cotton yield variability at the tehsil level.

Topographic Indices and Yield Variability in a Rolling Landscape of Western Canada

Understanding the relationships between topographic indices and crop yield variability is important for soil manage- ment and crop production in rolling landscape. Two agricultural fields at Alvena and Hepburn, Saskatchewan, Canada were selected to examine how topographic indices were related to wheat yield under two topographic and weather conditions in the Canadian prairies. The landscapes of the two sites are classified as hummocky and the dominant soil type is an Aridic Ustoll. The relationships among yield, topography, soil, and weather were analyzed using wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grain yield from Alvena in 2001 (dry year) and 2004 (wet year) and from Hepburn in 1998 (dry year). Topographic/soil indices included relative elevation, wetness index, upslope length, curvature, soil organic matter, and soil moisture storage before seeding. The results indicated that, in the dry years, the correlation coefficients between upslope length and grain yield were 0.79 for the typical rolling landscape (Alvena) in 2001 and 0.73 for shallow gentle rolling landscape (Hepburn) in 1998. In the wet year (2004), the relationships between yield and topographic/soil attributes were not as strong as in dry years. Therefore, upslope length was the best yield indicator for the two landscapes in dry years, whereas no topographic indices were highly correlated to crop yield in wet years. Those topographic indices seemed useful in identifying the yield variability and delineating the proper management zone.

Climate Influence on Rice, Maize and Wheat Yields and Yield Variability in Nepal

The weather has a significant influence on yield fluctuations in Nepal, particularly for grains. This study examined the effect of seasonal precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures and extreme climatic variables on yield levels and variability of rice, maize and wheat yields. The authors applied a stochastic production function approach as suggested by Just-Pope for panel data at the district level. The estimation results indicated that climate trends in Nepal had a significant influence on crop yield levels and variances in various magnitudes and directions. The results showed an increase in precipitation negatively influenced maize yield levels and positively influenced wheat yield levels; however, a positive influence was found to reduce yield variability in rice and wheat. Similarly, an increase in maximum temperature apparently led to decreased maize and increased wheat yield levels, respectively, and also led to increased yield variability in rice and maize. Likewise, the minimum temperature was helpful to increase yield levels for all crops and to decrease the yield variability in rice and maize. Moreover, the extreme climates such as low precipitation and high maximum temperatures significantly influenced the reduction in yield levels of rice and maize, respectively that could be used to design an index insurance product for Nepal.