Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Sparrow Search Algorithm Combined with Random Forest:A Case Study in Henan Province,China

Precise and timely prediction of crop yields is crucial for food security and the development of agricultural policies.However,crop yield is influenced by multiple factors within complex growth environments.Previous research has paid relatively little attention to the interference of environmental factors and drought on the growth of winter wheat.Therefore,there is an urgent need for more effective methods to explore the inherent relationship between these factors and crop yield,making precise yield prediction increasingly important.This study was based on four type of indicators including meteorological,crop growth status,environmental,and drought index,from October 2003 to June 2019 in Henan Province as the basic data for predicting winter wheat yield.Using the sparrow search al-gorithm combined with random forest(SSA-RF)under different input indicators,accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation was calcu-lated.The estimation accuracy of SSA-RF was compared with partial least squares regression(PLSR),extreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost),and random forest(RF)models.Finally,the determined optimal yield estimation method was used to predict winter wheat yield in three typical years.Following are the findings:1)the SSA-RF demonstrates superior performance in estimating winter wheat yield compared to other algorithms.The best yield estimation method is achieved by four types indicators’composition with SSA-RF)(R^(2)=0.805,RRMSE=9.9%.2)Crops growth status and environmental indicators play significant roles in wheat yield estimation,accounting for 46%and 22%of the yield importance among all indicators,respectively.3)Selecting indicators from October to April of the follow-ing year yielded the highest accuracy in winter wheat yield estimation,with an R^(2)of 0.826 and an RMSE of 9.0%.Yield estimates can be completed two months before the winter wheat harvest in June.4)The predicted performance will be slightly affected by severe drought.Compared with severe drought year(2011)(R^(2)=0.680)and normal year(2017)(R^(2)=0.790),the SSA-RF model has higher prediction accuracy for wet year(2018)(R^(2)=0.820).This study could provide an innovative approach for remote sensing estimation of winter wheat yield.yield.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban-rural Construction Land in Rural Industrialized Areas in China:Case Studies in Changyuan City and Xinxiang County of Henan Province

Since China’s reform and opening up in 1978,the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in China had led to dramatic changes in the pattern of urban-rural land use.In this paper,we focused on the rural industrialized areas in central China(Xinxiang County and Changyuan City of Henan Province).We used the average nearest neighbor index,spatial statistical analysis,and a structural equation model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban-rural construction land based on multisource spatial data and survey data.The results showed that:1)from 1975 to 2019,the spatial distribution of urban-rural construction land in rural industrialized areas had evolved from homogeneous distribution to local agglomeration.In terms of comparative analysis of cases,the spatial distribution of urban-rural construction land in Changyuan City had shown a trend from diffusion to agglomeration,and Xinxiang County had overall shown a spatial change from homogenization to agglomeration and then to regional integration development.2)The hot spots with increased urban-rural construction land significantly expanded,and they had a high degree of spatial overlap with industrial development.Among them,Xinxiang County was concentrated in central and marginal areas,and Changyuan was mainly concentrated in central urban areas.3)From the evolution of spatial proximity of urban-rural construction land,rural industrialized areas generally decline,showing the characteristics of internal differentiation in the rate of change.4)Industrial development,social economy,the policy environment,and urban development played a positive role in promoting the expansion of urban-rural construction land in rural industrialized areas.To promote the optimal use of regional land and the integrated development of urban-rural areas,we should combine the advantages of regional endowment,formulate development strategies according to local conditions,and adjust the way that land is used in a timely manner.

Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analysis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Result] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agricultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping index and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mechanization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.

Variations of Frost-free Period and Its Impact on Grain Yields in Henan Province during 1961-2013

The aim of this study was to investigate the responses of frost dates to global warming and its influences on grain yields. In this study, based on the frost date series defined by daily minimum ground temperature, the spatial and temporal characteristics of first frost date （FFD）, last frost date （LFD） and frost-free period （FFP） were analyzed. The impact of extending FFP on major crop yields was also studied. The results were as follows： FFD showed a significantly delaying trend of 2.2 d/10 y, and LFD presented an advancing trend of 2.4 d/10 y. FFP extended at a rate of 4.5 d/10 y due to the later FFD and earlier LFD. The most obvious trend of FFD was in westem Henan, while the most significant trend of LFD and FFP oc- curred in south central parts of the study area. However, in eestem region, the trends of FFD, LFD and FFP were not so obvious. Major crop yield showed a sig- nificant correlation with frost-free period for Henan during 1961-2013. The yields of grain, rice, wheat, and maize increased by 79.5, 90.0, 79.5 and 70.5 kg/hm2 with FFP extending by one day.

Technological Paths for Improving Grain Comprehensive Productivity ——Taking Henan Province for Instance

[Objective] This paper aimed at exploring technological paths for improving grain productivity based on the conditions and production practice in Henan Province.[Method] The status and dynamics of grain production in Henan Province were analyzed as a whole.[Result] The total production of grain in Henan Province had generally shown a tendency of ascent.Total grain production in Henan Province was 54 370 thousand t,which was 2.5 times of the total grain production in 1978,as 20 974 thousand t.The growth of grain production was more and more relying on the improvement of grain yield per unit area.[Conclusion] This research had provided theoretical basis for the improvement of grain production in Henan Province as well as for the grain production of the whole country.

Measurement and assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Henan Province, China

As demands on limited water resources intensify, concerns are being raised about water resources carrying capacity（WRCC）, which is defined as the maximum sustainable socioeconomic scale that can be supported by available water resources and while maintaining defined environmental conditions. This paper proposes a distributed quantitative model for WRCC, based on the principles of optimization, and considering hydro-economic interaction, water supply, water quality, and socioeconomic development constraints. With the model, the WRCCs of 60 subregions in Henan Province were determined for different development periods. The results showed that the water resources carrying level of Henan Province was suitably loaded in 2010, but that the province would be mildly overloaded in 2030 with respect to the socioeconomic development planning goals. The restricting factors for WRCC included the available water resources, the increasing rate of GDP, the urbanization ratio, the irrigation water utilization coefficient, the industrial water recycling rate, and the wastewater reuse rate, of which the available water resources was the most crucial factor. Because these factors varied temporally and spatially, the trends in predicted WRCC were inconsistent across different subregions and periods.

Analysis of Security of High-yield Cultivation of Spring Peanut in the Southwest of Henan Province Based on Meteorological Factors

The changes of meteorological factors such as average temperature, pre- cipitation and sunshine duration in the whole growth period and at various growth stages of spring peanut in Dengzhou City during 2001-2016 were analyzed, and their effects on the growth and development of spring peanut were discussed. The results show that from 2001 to 2016, average temperature tended to increase in the growth period of spring peanut in Dengzhou City, but the increasing trend was slow; precipitation showed a decreasing trend on the whole （it increased at the sowing and flowering stage）; sunshine duration reduced year by year （the decreasing trend was different at various growth stages）, but the decrease of sunshine duration was more obvious than that of precipitation. Based on the analysis of meteorological conditions and the growth rules of spring peanut, it is needed to scientifically choose varieties of spring peanut, plan suitable sowing patterns, apply and manage- fertilizer and water to reasonably realize sustainable high-yield of spring peanut based on its safe stable yield.

Diagnostic Analysis on a Regional Rainstorm Weather in North-central Henan Province

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteorological Station, the diagnostic analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on a rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province on July 19, 2010 was carried out. The characteristics of physical quantity field and the evolution of weather situation in north-central Henan Province when the rainstorm happened were studied. [Result] Western Pacific subtropical high strengthened to extend westward. The dynamic uplifting of low vortex at the middle and low layers, the strong water vapor transportation of southwest low-level jet caused the regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. The diagnostic results of physical quantity showed that the deep, thick wet layer and the sustained water vapor convergence provided the abundant water vapor for rainstorm generation. The positive vorticity advection center developed and spread from northwest to southeast, which was favorable for the development of vertical movement. The structure maintenance of positive vorticity at the middle and low layers, negative vorticity at the middle and high levels provided the power condition for the regional rainstorm generation. The pumping effect of convergence at the middle and low layers, divergence at the high layer was favorable for the strengthening of vertical ascending motion at the low layer. The uplifting effect of dew point front at the middle and low layers triggered the release of unstable energy. The confrontation of warm and cold air was one of the important reasons for the regional rainstorm. TBB characteristic analysis showed that TBB was from -60 to -50 ℃ in north-central Henan Province in the whole strong precipitation time, and the moving speed was equivalent to that of southwest vortex. The low-value belt of TBB corresponded with the rainstorm occurrence zone in Henan, and the minimum-value center of TBB was basically consistent with the strongest center of precipitation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the short-term forecast of rainstorm.

Analysis of Driving Factors of Grain Output in Henan Province Based on Grey Correlation Model

Henan Province is an important grain production base, whose stable production is related to the economic development and social stability significantly. To summarize the primary factors of grain producing, we used grey correlation analysis method to analyze 10 correlative factors such as grain yield, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigated area, rural employed persons, grain planting area, consumption of chemical fertilizer in 25 years. The results showed order of synthetic degree of incidence: effective irrigated area>rural electricity consumption>consumption of chemical fertilizer>disaster crop area>grain yield per unit of area>total power of agricultural machinery>afflicted crop area>grain planting area>number of the rural employed persons. Finally, according to synthetic degree of incidence between influential factors and total grain output respectively, a series of measures and the suggestions was proposed for grain production in Henan Province, which will also provide the scientific basis and help for the government correct decision-making.

Investigation and Analysis of Continuous Cropping of Flue-cured Tobacco in Henan Province

The continuous cropping of flue-cured tobacco in the major producing areas of Henan Province by designing questionnaire, fieldwork, enquiry and phone calls, mails, and other forms, the data were obtained then classified and analyzed. The results showed that the main planting areas of flue-cured tobacco were in Nanyang, Xuchang, Luoyang, Sanmenxia, Pingdingshan, and Luohe where were the major producing areas of succession cropping of flue-cured tobacco with percentage of 20%-40% for three years and over three years, and a few places up to 50%. Morbidity was common with wide distribution, and the main diseases were black shank, viral disease, and black rot. It proved that tobacco was not suitable for continuous cropping. Both of tobacco disease and pest rate and mortality significantly increased by more than 40% under continuous cropping for three years and over three years, and the yield and quality of flue-cured tobacco also decreased after continuous cropping. For many places, the tobacco yield started to decrease in the second year of continuous cropping, and after three-year cropping, the yield decreased in the range of 9%-24%. Continuous cropping for a long time would make a serious decline in the quality of tobacco, resulting in non-economic benefits. Therefore, in order to reduce the occurrence of diseases and economic loss in tobacco production, it is recommended to avoid continuous cropping, or to adopt appropriate measures to control tobacco continuous cropping obstacles in the unavoidable case.

Pedigree and Trait Analysis of Soybean Varieties Registered in Henan Province

To elucidate the genetic relationship of the soybean varieties registered in Henan province, we analyzed the pedigrees, the major agronomic traits, and the eco- nomic traits of 74 soybean varieties registered in Henan province from 1985 to 2012, with reference to experience and technologies beneficial to breeding. The resuits indicated that these varieties originated from 113 parents, and positive correla- tion between the yield and the number of original parents was significant. In the major agronomic traits, the growth stage was about 106 days with relatively small variation, while the final height varied largely among these varieties. Among the fac- tore affecting the final yield, the pod number per plant exhibited an increasing trend, while the variation of 100-grain weight was relatively small. More than 50% of the 113 original parents came from Henan Province and its neighbor provinces, and the genetic relationship among the registered varieties was too close. The rational criteria of yield components of soybean varieties in Henan Province should be as fol- lows： the pod number per plant was about 48. 6, with 100-grain weight ranging from 17.55 g to 21.80 g.

Experimental Summary and Enlightenment of Urban and Rural Integration in Henan Province

By means of investigation and research of the 7 cities of the urban and rural integration in Henan Province, the paper summarizes five aspects of urban and rural integration in Henan Province in common from the social and economic conditions, spatial characteristics, dynamic mechanism, organization form, security measures： higher level of economic development, the selective advantage of location, the power mechanism characteristics of taking the government as the main body from top to bottom, the organization form of strengthen the construction of new rural area and industrial agglomeration area construction, the security measures of innovation mechanism system.The main sticking point to urban and rural integrition is the capital input and output, the rural collective economic power shortage problem , the problem of sustainable development of new rural community. A useful reference is playing the active role of rural cadre and masses initiative to promote the integration of urban and rural by injection power source from bottom to top; much channel solves problem of farmer employment according to local conditions; improve rural economy from hematopoietic function rely on industry development.

Remote Sensing Dynamic Monitoring System for Agricultural Disaster in Henan Province Based on Multi-source Satellite Data

Using 3S technology, relying on earth-space three-dimensional agriculture disaster monitoring network, remote sensing monitoring model for agricultural disaster in Henan Province was established, and agricultural disaster monitoring system plat- form of Henan Province based on multi-souroe satellite data was further constructed, which realizes dynamic monitoring of agricultural disasters in Henan Province （drought, flood, snow cover and straw burning）.

The Application of ARIMA Model in Forecasting of PDSI in Henan Province

[Objective] The aim was to establish drought forecasting model with high precision. [Method] With an ARIMA regression model, the research performed Palmer Drought mode（PDSI） time series modeling analysis of Henan Province based on PDSI time series and DPS（Data Processing Software） in order to build drought forecasting model. [Result] It is feasible to perform drought forecasting with appropriate parameters. [Conclusion] ARIMA model is practical and more precise in PDSI-based drought analysis and forecasting.

Study on Land Use Regionalization in Henan Province

According to the natural ecology and socio-economic conditions in Henan Province, a land use regionalization index system with 6 factors and 24 factor layers was constructed by combining with the characteristics of land use in Henan Province. Expert scoring method was used to determine the weights of the indicators. Based on the similarities and differences of these factors in the index system at county （city, district） levels, hierarchical clustering method was used to make the quantitative analysis to the land use regionalization in Henan Province. And constrastive analysis and qualitative analysis were made to the regionalization scheme by combining with the acutal conditions in the counties （cities, districts）, and finally, Henan Province was classified into 6 regions.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Force of Cultivated Land Quality in Henan Province

The purpose of this study was to find out the spatial-temporal rules and driving force of cultivated land quality in Henan Province in the last ten years. Agricultural land grading factor evaluation was used to evaluate the cultivated land quality of 2002 and 2012 in Henan Province, and to research the change laws. Method of correlation coefficient was employed to select the driving forces affecting cultivated land quality evolution. The results indicated that the cultivated land quality in Henan Province increased slightly in the last ten years in general, and in spatial there were unchanged regions, increased regions and decreased regions. The cultivated land quality in spatial presented the trend of good becoming better, bad becoming worse, which should be highly valued in cultivated land quality protection and management. Land development and consolidation projects had significant contributions to increasing the cultivated land quality. Driving forces between the sudden change regions and gradual change regions were significantly different. The paper concluded that the research on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving force of cultivated land quality based on cultivated land quality evolution had important academic significance and practical value.

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Thunderstorms in 46 Years in Henan Province

By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.The result showed that the thunderstorms in Henan Province decreased gradually from the northwest region to the southeast region and the frequency of thunderstorms in the southeast area was relatively high.The thunderstorm intensity area was in its horizontal distribution.Thunderstorms acted relative actively in 60s and tended to dwindle in the end of 80s.While in recent years,the thunderstorms tended to increase and started act frequently.Since March to August in every year,thunderstorms multiplied in each region and decreased after September.The period between 16:00 to 20:00 was the high peak hours of thunderstorms every year.Thunderstorms distribution in Henan Province had pretty good consistence,increasing and decreasing at the same time.The annual variation of thunderstorms showed an unobvious decreasing tendency.

Petrology and Geochronology of Monzonite Porphyry Intruding in Xiong'er Volcanic Rocks in Xiaoshan Area, Western Henan Province

Xiong’er volcanic rocks cover an area of more than6×104 km2 along the southern margin of North China Craton.The Xiong’er group has been divided,from bottom to top,into the Dagushi,Xushan,Jidanping and

Child Mortality Patterns in Rural Areas of Anhui and Henan Provinces in China, 1990

County-based IMR and U5MR in Anhui and Henan provinces in China were estimated and analyzed by using the 1990 Census Data. Census was conducted on July 1,1990, the number of deaths only occurred in the first half year of 1990 was collected. In order to obtain the total population and total number of deaths in the same year, the total number of deaths in each eqersex group for the whole 1990 was then estimated by taking the death number in the first half of 1990 as the base and multiplying a coefficient, which varied in different age-sex-region groups. Two major adjustments for some possible underreporting cases in female birth and infant death were made. If the sex ratio at age 0 in some counties was beyond 1. 2, then it was taken as 1. 15 for rural counties and 1.10 for urban cities, which were the estimates of sex ratios for the children at ape 5 in the national 1% Population Sampling Survey in 1995. The adjustment for IMR were made by comparing the segment of the county lift table from age 15 through 59 with that from the same age groups in the international and Chinese Model Life Tables. The IMR in the county life table would be substituted by the one in the closest Model Life Talbe, if it was less than in the latter.The findings of the analysis may be summarized as fol1ows: (i) Total county-based IMR and U5MR were 33. 4 Per 1000 and 41. 4 per 1000 respectively, with great variations between urban cities (25. 4 per 1000 for IMR and 31. 4 per 1 000 for U5MR) and rural counties (35. 1 Per 1000 for IMR and 43. 6 per 1000 for U5MR). There were also sighficant differences in child mortality between nationally identified Poor counties and other counties in rural areas. In the opr counties the total IMR was 40. 7 per 1 000 living births in average while in non-opr counties it was only 33. 2 per 1000 in average (P < 0.05). The U5MR in opr counties was 25 percent higher than in non-opr counties (51. 5 vs 40. 9 Per 1 000 living births).(ii) Statistically significant correlation between child mortality and socio-economic variables was revealed from the data set, among which gross social economic products per capita was found to have the strongest relationship with child mortality. The neqative correlation was found between child mortality and a set of socalled' rich' variables including the gross social products, gr-oss agricultural products, gna industrial products and the proportions of high-educated population at county level, whereas the poSitive correlation was found between child mortality and a set of'poor' variables, such as proportions Of residents with lower 1evel of education and illiteracy rate.(iii) thfferences in child mortality between these two provinces were found, which were identical to the trends of differences in socio-economic indicators between them.tower child mortality proved to be associated with better socio-economic conditions(higher per capita products, higher proPortions of residents with higher level of education, lower proportion of less educated people and illiteracy) in province Henan.