The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic continues to threaten lives and the economy around the world.Estimating the risk of COVID-19 can help in predicting spreading trends,identifying risk areas,and making pub...The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic continues to threaten lives and the economy around the world.Estimating the risk of COVID-19 can help in predicting spreading trends,identifying risk areas,and making public health decisions.In this study,we proposed a comparative risk assessment method to estimate comprehensive and dynamic COVID-19 risks by considering the pandemic severity and the healthcare system pressure and then employing the z-order curve and fractal theory.We took the COVID-19 cases from January 19-March 10,2020 in China as our research object.The results and analysis revealed that(1)the proposed method demonstrated its feasibility to assess and illustrate pandemic risk;(2)the temporal patterns of the daily relative risk indices of 31 provinces were clustered into four groups(high-value,fluctuating-increase,inverted U-shaped,and low-stable);(3)the spatial distribution of the relative pandemic risk indicated a significant circular pattern centered on Hubei Province;and(4)healthcare system capacity is the key to reducing relative pandemic risk,and cases imported from abroad should be given more attention.The methods and results of this study will provide a methodological basis and practical guidance for regional pandemic risk assessment and public health decision-making.展开更多
基金National Key Research and Development Plan of China,No.2019YFA0606901The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP),No.2019QZKK0608+1 种基金The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA23100303The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.2019NTST01。
文摘The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic continues to threaten lives and the economy around the world.Estimating the risk of COVID-19 can help in predicting spreading trends,identifying risk areas,and making public health decisions.In this study,we proposed a comparative risk assessment method to estimate comprehensive and dynamic COVID-19 risks by considering the pandemic severity and the healthcare system pressure and then employing the z-order curve and fractal theory.We took the COVID-19 cases from January 19-March 10,2020 in China as our research object.The results and analysis revealed that(1)the proposed method demonstrated its feasibility to assess and illustrate pandemic risk;(2)the temporal patterns of the daily relative risk indices of 31 provinces were clustered into four groups(high-value,fluctuating-increase,inverted U-shaped,and low-stable);(3)the spatial distribution of the relative pandemic risk indicated a significant circular pattern centered on Hubei Province;and(4)healthcare system capacity is the key to reducing relative pandemic risk,and cases imported from abroad should be given more attention.The methods and results of this study will provide a methodological basis and practical guidance for regional pandemic risk assessment and public health decision-making.
