Projection of the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.

Empirical Analysis of City Contact in Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta, China

In traditional urban geography, city contact research is a classic study element in city research. In general, researchers use the traditional gravity model to characterize the contacts that exist between two cities. The traditional gravity model assumes ideal conditions, but these preconditions and their results often do not exist in realistic conditions. Thus, we used a modified gravity model to characterize the city contacts within a specific region. This model considers factors such as intercity complementarities, government intervention, and the diversity of the transportation infrastructure which is characterized as the transportation distance instead of the traditional Euclidean distance. We applied this model to an empirical study of city contact in the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta(PRD) of China. The regression results indicated that the modified gravity model could measure city contact more accurately and comprehensively than the traditional gravity model, i.e., it yielded a higher adjusted R2 value(0.379) than the traditional gravity model result(0.259). Our study also suggests that, in addition to urban-regional and metropolitan development, the complementarities of the basic functions of cities at the administrative and market levels, as well as the corporeal and immaterial levels, play very significant roles in the characterization of city contact. Given the complexity of city contact, it will be necessary to consider more relevant influential factors in the modified gravity model to characterize the features of city contact in the future.

Impacts of Weather Conditions Modified by Urban Expansion on Surface Ozone: Comparison between the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta Regions

In this paper, the online weather research and forecasting and chemistry （WRF-Chem） model is used to explore the impacts of urban expansion on regional weather conditions and its implication on surface ozone concentrations over the Pearl River Delta（PRD） and Yangtze River Delta（YRD） regions. Two scenarios of urban maps are used in the WRF-Chem to represent the early 1990s （pre-urbanization） and the current urban distribution in the PRD and the YRD. Month-long simulation results using the above land-use scenarios for March 2001 show that urbanization increases both the day- and night-time 2-m temperatures by about 0.6℃and 1.4℃, respectively. Daytime reduction in the wind speed by about 3.0 m s-1 is larger than that for the nighttime （0.5 to 2 m s-1）. The daytime increase in the PBL height （〉 200 m） is also larger than the nighttime （50-100 m）. The meteorological conditions modified by urbanization lead to detectable ozone-concentration changes in the PRD and the YRD. Urbanization increases the nighttime surface-ozone concentrations by about 4.7%-8.5% and by about 2.9%-4.2% for the daytime. In addition to modifying individual meteorological variables, urbanization also enhances the convergence zones, especially in the PRD. More importantly, urbanization has different effects on the surface ozone for the PRD and the YRD, presumably due to their urbanization characteristics and geographical locations. Even though the PRD has a smaller increase in the surface temperature than the YRD, it has （a） weaker surface wind speed, （b） smaller increase in PBL heights, and （c） stronger convergence zones. The latter three factors outweighed the temperature increase and resulted in a larger ozone enhancement in the PRD than the YRD.

Relationship Between Producer Services Developing Level and Urban Hierarchy——A Case Study of Zhujiang River Delta

As the Central Place Theory indicates, the centricity of a central city can influence the extension of its ser- vice. Since the service industry in the theory is mostly consumer services, it is worth studying the relationship between the producer services and the centricity of the city in the service society with producer services becoming a more im- portant part of the service industry. The paper takes the case of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD), a developed region in China, to study the relationship between the developing level of producer services and the urban hierarchy. Based on the analysis about the spatial difference of the producer services in the nine cities of the PRD, and the divi- sion of the nine cities according to some economic indices, it is shown that there is a correlation between the develop- ing level of producer services and the urban hierarchy. Furthermore, two deductions about the future status of the pro- ducer services in the city and the location of the producer services in a large region can be made from this correlation between the developing level of producer services and the urban hierarchy.

The Age of the Old Transgression Sequence in the Pearl River Delta, China

The Pearl River Delta （PRD） is located in the north coast area of the South China Sea （SCS）. As one of the largest delta in China, only the two latest events among the several tens of eustatic fluctuations occurring in the Quaternary were recorded in almost whole area of the PRD.

Spatial Structure and Land Use Control in Extended Metropolitan Region of Zhujiang River Delta,China

The Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta is one of the most developed Extended Metropolitan Regions (EMR) in China.With the rapid urbanization,the agglomeration of population and industries has emerged,which has led to dramatic changes of spatial structure and land use in this region.With data of high resolution TM remote sensing images and Google Earth maps,this paper identified and analyzed the spatial pattern of the Zhujiang River Delta EMR using Envy and ArcGIS tools.It was found that 1) the industrial land uses were expanding substantially,particularly on the bank sides of the Zhujiang River estuary;2) large-scale housing developments were concentrated in the fringe of metropolitan areas such as those of Guangzhou and Shenzhen;3) a regional transportation network with the spatial pattern of ″1 circle +2 pieces + 3 axes″ had significantly affected the location choice of manufacture enterprises.At the same time,both highly specialized land use and severely mixed land use patterns were identified.As a consequence of the latter,land use efficiency of the whole EMR areas was reduced.Moreover,ecologic and environmental problems were severe.Based on the above analysis,suggestions were given from the viewpoint of spatial safety,land use efficiency,and the reorganization of spatial structure in the Zhujiang River Delta EMR.

Microscopic analysis of saturated soft clay in Pearl River Delta

A series of researches were carried out for the soil samples in the Pearl River Delta under the action of consolidation loads,such as the quantitative analyses of the pore scale,shape and size distributions of micro-structure units,with an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM),a mercury intrusion analyzer and a mineral diffractometer. The experimental results show that the consolidation pressures remarkably change the pore sizes and distribution characteristics of the silt,thus changing its compressibility and permeability. This can be proved by the fact that,in the earlier stage with a consolidation pressure of p<200 kPa,the pore sizes are greater and the compressibility and permeability coefficients are larger. However,they rapidly decrease with the increase in consolidation pressure. And in the later stage with a consolidation pressure of p>200 kPa,the pore sizes are smaller and the compressibility and permeability coefficients are less. Therefore,the empirical formulas of compression coefficient and permeability coefficient vs consolidation load and average pore diameter are deduced.

Peripheral Challenge in Container Port System:A Case Study of Pearl River Delta

The growth of peripheral ports to dominant hubs has been well documented in North America and Europe,and has led to the elaboration of several theoretical models.However,although changes in containerization growth have been taking place in the South and East Asia in recent years,particularly in China,only a few studies have fo-cused on this region.The Pearl(Zhujiang) River Delta(PRD) has a typical port system with hub and peripheral ports,and provides an excellent case for studying the Peripheral Challenge.This paper introduces the theoretical evidence of the Hayuth model and analyzes the evolution of the container port system in the PRD with five phases:1) phase I:preconditions for change and phase II:initial container port development in the 1970s and early 1980s;2) phase III:diffusion,consolidation,and port concentration in the middle and late 1980s;3) phase IV:the load center in the 1990s;and(4) phase V:the Peripheral Challenge since the late 1990s.The results illustrate that the Shenzhen port presents mounting challenges to the Hong Kong port,descending from a transshipment hub of China to a regional load center of Southeast China.Furthermore,this paper explores five points that have led to the evolution of the port system in the PRD:1) competition in the regional port systems;2) different interested parties;3) shift of investment strategies of in-ternational terminal operators;4) integration of shipping networks and reorganization of carriers;and 5) cost-based competition.

Daily Changes of Spatial Patterns of Meteorological Elements over Pearl River Delta Based on GIS and MM5

The spatial distribution of meteorological elements is important for understanding the regional meteorology and climate changes. However,previous studies rarely focused on the daily changes of the spatial patterns of meteorological elements due to the limitation of remote sensing(RS) techniques and traditional meteorological methods. In this paper,the regional meteorological elements were simulated by the fifth-generation non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model(MM5) ,and the spatial patterns of meteorological elements and their diurnal variations were analyzed in landscape level over the Pearl(Zhujiang) River Delta(PRD) ,China. The results showed that there were several centers of urban heat islands,cold islands,dry islands,wet islands,high wind over the PRD at noon. The diurnal changes of Moran I of meteorological elements were obvious and they reached the extremum at noon and 2-3 hours after the sunrise. The landscape indices of meteorological elements,such as area-weighted mean Fractal Dimension Index(FRAC_AM) ,Landscape Shape Index(LSI) ,Shannon's Diversity Index(SHDI) and Contagion Index(CONTAG) ,were more variable at about the sunrise,noon and sunset. The occurrence of wave crests and vales of landscape indices was affected by the surface net radiation,turbulence and local circumfluence. The spatial patterns of meteorological elements correlated well with the land surface,thermal exchanges and local circumfluence. A new approach combining GIS,RS and numerical simulations technologies and the landscape ecology method was presented to analyze spatial patterns of meteorological elements,which may be useful for studying global and regional climate changes.

Impact of Hinterland Manufacturing on the Development of Container Ports: Evidence from the Pearl River Delta, China

Container ports and hinterland manufacturing are two important forces of the local participation in economic globalization.This study,taking the Pearl River Delta(PRD),China with an export-oriented economy as an example,applies Huff and panel regres-sion models to evaluate the impact of hinterland manufacturing on the development of container ports during the period of 1993–2019.The results show that 1)the spatial patterns of hinterlands for hub ports help to determine the distribution range and scale of economic variables that affect port throughput;2)the hinterland’s gross manufacturing output has universally positive influence on port through-put,wherein export-oriented processing and the entire manufacturing industry have significantly positive impact on port throughput in 1993–2011 and 2001–2019,respectively;3)the two internal structural factors related to an export-oriented economy,labor-intensive sectors and foreign-funded terminals,have positively moderate the direct influence of hinterland manufacturing on port throughput.Our results highlight the importance of local context in understanding port-manufacturing relationship in developing economies.Based on our findings,policy implications are further proposed to enhance port network organization in PRD.

基于KZ滤波分析气象对珠三角臭氧趋势的影响

基于2015~2021年珠三角臭氧(O_(3))监测数据以及再分析的气象资料,利用Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)滤波和逐步多元线性回归方法分析O_(3)长期趋势和气象因素之间的关系,量化气象和非气象对珠三角O_(3)日最大8h平均浓度(MDA8O_(3))长期趋势的贡献.结果表明:2015~2021年珠三角MDA8O_(3)增长明显,夏季和秋季O_(3)污染尤为严重.KZ滤波分离出的MDA8O_(3)短期、季节和长期3个分量分别占原始序列方差的60.84%、24.96%和4.33%,各分量之间相互独立,3个分量均与太阳辐射、温度和边界层高度呈正相关,与云量、相对湿度、风速和850hPa经向风呈负相关.此外,气象和非气象影响能分别解释大约64.3%(2.77μg/(m^(3)·a))和35.7%(1.53μg/(m^(3)·a))的MDA8O_(3)长期趋势的增长率(4.29μg/(m^(3)·a)).

Space view of the decadal variation for typical air pollutants in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region in China

The Pearl River Delta （PRD） is one of the most industrialized, urbanized and populated regions in China, and thus has been long suffering from severe air pollutions. Space data provide a unique perspective for investigating the atmospheric environment at a regional scale. By utilizing multiple satellite retrievals from 2005 to 2013, this study presented, for the first time, the spatial patterns and temporal trends of typical air pollutants over PRD and its vicinity. As viewed from space, aerosol optical depth （AOD）, NO2 and SO2 all had their higher values at the central part of PRD, and showed clear descending gradients as moving to the outskirt of this region. As to the inter-annual variation, all these pollutants had decreasing trends in PRD during the study period, which generally agreed with the relevant in situ measurements. However, the satellite retrievals differed from ground measurements when addressing NO2 and SO2 in the vicinity of PRD. This work also provides the inter-comparison among PRD and three other metropolitan clusters in China： PRD had relatively high AOD, moderate NO2 and low SO2 levels, and it was the only region achieving the effective reduction of NO2 and SO2 during last decade. Unlike the previous three pollutants, HCHO observed by satellite showed very special patterns： it had a relatively homogeneous spatial distribution over both of PRD and its vicinity, and presented an opposite increasing trend from 2005 to 2010. Moreover, PRD had the highest HCHO level among all the metropolitan clusters, hinting a considerable contribution of biogenic origins of HCHO in PRD.

Source attribution for mercury deposition with an updated atmospheric mercury emission inventory in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

We used CMAQ-Hg to simulate mercury pollution and identify main sources in the Pearl River Delta (PR.D) with updated local emission inventory and latest regional and global emissions. The total anthropogenic mercury emissions in the PRD for 2014 were 11,939.6 kg. Power plants and industrial boilers were dominant sectors, responsible for 29.4 and 22.7%. We first compared model predictions and observations and the results showed a good performance. Then five scenarios with power plants (PP), municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI), industrial point sources (IP), natural sources (NAT), and boundary conditions (BCs) zeroed out separately were simulated and compared with the base case. BCs was responsible for over 30% of annual average mercury concentration and total deposition while NAT contributed around 15%. Among the anthropogenic sources, IP (22.9%) was dominant with a contribution over 20.0% and PP (18.9%) and MSWI (11.2%) ranked second and third. Results also showed that power plants were the most important emission sources in the central PRD, where the ultra-low emission for thermal power units need to be strengthened. In the northern and western PRD, cement and metal productions were priorities for mercury control. The fast growth of municipal solid waste incineration were also a key factor in the core areas. In addition, a coordinated regional mercury emission control was important for effectively controlling pollution. In the future, mercury emissions will decrease as control measures are strengthened, more attention should be paid to mercury deposition around the large point sources as high levels of pollution are observed.

Ambient volatile organic compounds at a receptor site in the Pearl River Delta region:Variations,source apportionment and effects on ozone formation

We present the continuously measurements of volatile organic compounds(VOCs)at a receptor site(Wan Qing Sha,WQS)in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region from September to November of 2017.The average mixing ratios of total VOCs(TVOCs)was 36.3±27.9 ppbv with the dominant contribution from alkanes(55.5%),followed by aromatics(33.3%).The diurnal variation of TVOCs showed a strong photochemical consumption during daytime,resulting in the formation of ozone(O_(3)).Five VOC sources were resolved by the positive matrix factorization(PMF)model,including solvent usage(28.6%),liquid petroleum gas(LPG)usage(24.4%),vehicle exhaust(21.0%),industrial emissions(13.2%)and gasoline evaporation(12.9%).The regional transport air masses from the upwind cities of south China can result in the elevated concentrations of TVOCs.Low ratios of TVOCs/NO_(x)(1.53±0.88)suggested that the O_(3) formation regime at WQS site was VOC-limited,which also confirmed by a photochemical box model with the master chemical mechanism(PBM-MCM).Furthermore,the observation on high-O_(3) episode days revealed that frequent O_(3) outbreaks at WQS were mainly caused by the regional transport of anthropogenic VOCs especially for aromatics and the subsequent photochemical reactions.This study provides valuable information for policymakers to propose the effective control strategies on photochemical pollution in a regional perspective.

Photochemical indicators of ozone sensitivity： application in the Pearl River Delta, China

Surface 03 production has a highly nonlinear relationship with its precursors. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of O3-NOx-VOC-sensitivity regimes complicates the control- decision making. In this paper, the indicator method was used to establish the relationship between 03 sensitivity and assessment indicators. Six popular ratios indicating ozone-precursor sensitivity, HCHO/NOy, H2O2/ HNO3, O3/NOy, O3/NOz, O3/HNO3, and H2O2/NOz, were evaluated based on the distribution of NOx- and VOC-sensitive regimes. WRF-Chem was used to study a serious ozone episode in fall over the Pearl River Delta （PRD）. It was found that the south-west of the PRD is characterized by a VOCsensitive regime, while its north-east is NO y-sensitive, with a sharp transition area between the two regimes. All indicators produced good representations of the elevated ozone hours in the episode on 6 November 2009, with H202/HNO3 being the best indicator. The threshold sensitivity levels for HCHO/NOy, H2O2/HNO3, O3/NOy, O3/NOz, O3/HNO3, and H2O2/NOz were estimated to be 0.41, 0.55, 10.2, 14.0, 19.1, and 0.38, respectively. Threshold intervals for the indicators H2O2/HNO3, O3/ NOy, O3/NOz, O3/HNO3, and H202/NOz were able to identify more than 95% of VOC- and NOx-sensitive grids. The ozone episode on 16 November 16 2008 was used to independently verify the results, and it was found that only H2O2/HNO3 and H2O2/NOz were able to differentiate the ozone sensitivity regime well. Hence, these two ratios are suggested as the most appropriate indicators for identifying fall ozone sensitivity in the PRD. Since the species used for indicators have seasonal variation, the utility of those indicators for other seasons should be investigated in the future work.

Spatial variations of river water quality in Pearl River Delta, China

In Pearl River Delta （PRD）, river water quality has deteriorated gradually due to population increase and ongoing industrialization and urbanization. In this study, multivariate statistic methods were used to assess water quality spatial pattern and to identify characteristics of water quality variation in the PRD. Water quality monitoring of the PRD during the year 2005 and 2008 was conducted at 25 different stations. Seventeen water quality parameters were analyzed for further studying. Results of one-way analysis of variance （ANOVA） indicated that all the parameters except air temperature, water temperature and zinc showed significant difference among monitoring stations in both dry and wet season. Monitoring stations in the PRD were separately classified into three statistically significant clusters at （Olink/Omax） （ 2 in dry and wet season, respectively. The three clusters indicated the similarity and dissimilarity of river water quality among 25 monitoring stations, corresponding to heavy pollution, moderate pollution and slight pollution. Thus, the results of this study are useful to evaluate water quality and manage water resources in the PRD.

海相砂岩油藏沉积微相特征及对剩余油的控制——以南海东部X油田为例

X油田为南海东部典型的海相砂岩油田,开发中后期剩余油特征不清晰,充分利用动静态资料,展开沉积微相及动油水界面研究。结果表明:研究区油藏范围内发育水下分流河道主体、河道侧缘、河口坝、远砂坝及分流间湾等微相,河道主体厚度较大,动油水界面在构造高部位趋于水平;河道侧缘、河口坝、远砂坝等砂体储层较薄,横向连续性受物源方向控制,在开发中后期,来水方向受砂体展布方向控制,波及程度较弱,从而产生剩余油富集区。

珠江三角洲秋季典型光化学污染过程中的臭氧来源分析

利用区域空气质量模型CAMx模拟珠江三角洲地区（简称珠三角）2009年11月臭氧浓度演变过程,运用臭氧源识别技术（OSAT）对其中两个典型的光化学污染日进行臭氧来源识别,并与清洁日的情况做对照分析。结果表明,广州市区和东莞的排放对本地及珠三角西南部臭氧贡献很大（15-30μL/m3）,深圳宝安区排放对珠江口有明显的贡献（15-25μL/m3）。流动源和溶剂使用源是珠三角臭氧生成最主要的两类前体物排放源,主要影响范围覆盖珠三角的中部和西部,流动源对佛山和江门交界地区的臭氧小时浓度贡献可达50μL/m3。较高的边界外传输使得珠三角在出现不利污染气象条件的情况下更易发生臭氧污染,但珠三角的前体物排放是造成污染时段臭氧浓度升高的主要原因,控制珠三角内的污染源排放对控制臭氧污染具有关键作用。

珠江三角洲城市群PM_(10)的相互影响研究

利用Models-3/CMAQ模拟系统,对珠江三角洲地区2006年10月的大气PM10污染进行模拟研究。通过敏感性分析,获得各城市PM10浓度随不同污染源削减的变化情况,量化出城市间空气污染的相互影响。结果显示,珠江三角洲地区已形成PM10区域性污染的格局,广州、佛山、江门、东莞等地是珠三角地区PM10的重要源贡献区域。提出相对敏感系数作为表征外来源影响程度的指标,珠海、江门、中山、佛山等地的PM10浓度受到外来源的显著影响,城市间输送已成为造成珠三角地区PM10污染的重要因素。对重点城市源的合理削减和有效控制,以及城市群的统一规划、相互协作、联防联控是改善珠三角地区空气质量的唯一途径。

珠江三角洲秋季典型气象条件对O_3和PM10污染的影响

利用化学传输模式(CMAQ)系统对珠江三角洲(珠三角)地区2008年秋季的气象场、O3和PM10的污染状况进行模拟,研究典型气象条件对O3和PM10污染的影响。结果表明2008年秋季珠三角受冷空气过程影响,污染特征具有周期性,冷空气过境期间空气质量良好,冷空气过境前期和回暖期污染严重。1)过境前期如处于冷锋前部型天气控制下,珠三角近地面形成逆温层,混合层高度较低,早晨累积前日夜间生成的PM10,造成珠三角北部和中部污染;O3日间和PM10夜间污染区域分布在偏北风的下风向,造成珠三角南部污染。2)过境前期如处于高压底部型天气控制下,将形成逆温层,垂直输送较差,O3和PM10沿着东北风向水平传输,造成珠三角西南部污染。3)回暖期通常处于变性高压脊型天气控制下,珠三角近地面形成逆温层,受静小风影响,水平输送较差,导致O3和PM10的污染分布在珠三角西部、西北部和中部源排放区,造成持续性局地污染。