近年来,国际上对于强震前的加速矩释放(AMR)现象是否可作为一种可靠的、带有普遍性的地震前兆现象争议较大.本文以2008年3月21日新疆于田 M_s 7.3地震为例,试图从前兆存在的客观性和与地震发生的物理相关性两方面考察本次地震前的 AMR ...近年来,国际上对于强震前的加速矩释放(AMR)现象是否可作为一种可靠的、带有普遍性的地震前兆现象争议较大.本文以2008年3月21日新疆于田 M_s 7.3地震为例,试图从前兆存在的客观性和与地震发生的物理相关性两方面考察本次地震前的 AMR 现象.用"破裂时间分析"方程中的幂指数 m 作为描述震前加速矩释放"程度"的参量,在时间-空间-地震序列截止震级组成的三维参数空间(T,R,M_c)内考察 AMR 现象存存的客观性.考虑了多种因素对 m(T,R,M_c)分布图像可能的影响,其中,余震是否删除和 M_c 对计算影响不大,但 M_L 6.0以上"干扰"事件的影响则较大.结果表明,于田地震前的确存在 AMR 现象,但得到的 m(T,R,M_c)分布图像较为复杂,可观测到两个明显的 AMR 集中分布区.此外,在以实际震中为圆心的多个圆形区域内,使用固定时间窗向实际发震时刻滑动逼近,可观测到 m 值逐渐减小,即加速特征逐渐明显的过程.对震前矩释放程度 m 值的时-空扫描结果显示,出现 AMR 现象的空间区域与震中位置似有较好的对应,但其时-空演化图像与滑动时-空窗的选取有关.这表明,本次 M_s 7.3地震前的确存在 AMR 现象,并与其孕震过程在物理上相关.但本文仅是一个震例的研究,无法给出具有统计显著性的结论。此外,用 AMR 来约束地震发生的时间看来是困难的.展开更多
The spatiotemporal evolution of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake sequence off the East Coast of Honshu in Japan on March 11,2011 and precursive seismic activity near the Japan Trench show that the earthquake sequence has fo...The spatiotemporal evolution of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake sequence off the East Coast of Honshu in Japan on March 11,2011 and precursive seismic activity near the Japan Trench show that the earthquake sequence has foreshock-main shock-aftershock characteristics.Its foreshock sequence is characterized by a concentrated spatial distribution,low b value and the same focal mechanisms.Half an hour after the main shock,the two greatest aftershocks,with magnitudes of M7.9 and M7.7,occurred,followed by a rapid reduction in the strength of events.The aftershock activity was enhanced roughly two weeks and one month after the main event.This great earthquake ruptured bilaterally.Five hours after the main shock,the aftershock zone extended over a range that was 500 km in length and 300 km in width.A day later,the long axis of the aftershock area had expanded to about 600 km.Nine years prior to the 2011 earthquake,the seismicity in the location of the seismic source for this event enhanced significantly,with the extent of this area of enhanced seismicity being roughly equivalent to the aftershock zone.展开更多
文摘近年来,国际上对于强震前的加速矩释放(AMR)现象是否可作为一种可靠的、带有普遍性的地震前兆现象争议较大.本文以2008年3月21日新疆于田 M_s 7.3地震为例,试图从前兆存在的客观性和与地震发生的物理相关性两方面考察本次地震前的 AMR 现象.用"破裂时间分析"方程中的幂指数 m 作为描述震前加速矩释放"程度"的参量,在时间-空间-地震序列截止震级组成的三维参数空间(T,R,M_c)内考察 AMR 现象存存的客观性.考虑了多种因素对 m(T,R,M_c)分布图像可能的影响,其中,余震是否删除和 M_c 对计算影响不大,但 M_L 6.0以上"干扰"事件的影响则较大.结果表明,于田地震前的确存在 AMR 现象,但得到的 m(T,R,M_c)分布图像较为复杂,可观测到两个明显的 AMR 集中分布区.此外,在以实际震中为圆心的多个圆形区域内,使用固定时间窗向实际发震时刻滑动逼近,可观测到 m 值逐渐减小,即加速特征逐渐明显的过程.对震前矩释放程度 m 值的时-空扫描结果显示,出现 AMR 现象的空间区域与震中位置似有较好的对应,但其时-空演化图像与滑动时-空窗的选取有关.这表明,本次 M_s 7.3地震前的确存在 AMR 现象,并与其孕震过程在物理上相关.但本文仅是一个震例的研究,无法给出具有统计显著性的结论。此外,用 AMR 来约束地震发生的时间看来是困难的.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2008CB425704)the Eleventh Five-Year National Key Technology R&D Program (2008BAC35B05)
文摘The spatiotemporal evolution of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake sequence off the East Coast of Honshu in Japan on March 11,2011 and precursive seismic activity near the Japan Trench show that the earthquake sequence has foreshock-main shock-aftershock characteristics.Its foreshock sequence is characterized by a concentrated spatial distribution,low b value and the same focal mechanisms.Half an hour after the main shock,the two greatest aftershocks,with magnitudes of M7.9 and M7.7,occurred,followed by a rapid reduction in the strength of events.The aftershock activity was enhanced roughly two weeks and one month after the main event.This great earthquake ruptured bilaterally.Five hours after the main shock,the aftershock zone extended over a range that was 500 km in length and 300 km in width.A day later,the long axis of the aftershock area had expanded to about 600 km.Nine years prior to the 2011 earthquake,the seismicity in the location of the seismic source for this event enhanced significantly,with the extent of this area of enhanced seismicity being roughly equivalent to the aftershock zone.
