Time derivative of earthquake acceleration

Unlike acceleration, velocity, and displacement, the time derivative ofacceleration (TDoA) of ground motion has not been extensively studied. In this paper, the basiccharacteristics of TDoA are evaluated based on records from the 1999 Chi-Chi, earthquake (Mw 7.6)and one of its aftershocks (Mw 6.2). It is found that the maximum TDoA at a free-field station wasover 31,200 cm/s3 (31.8 g/s); and the duration of 'strong' TDoA, between the first and the last timepoints exceeding 2,000 cm/s3 (2 g/s), was almost one minute near the epicenter area. Since groundTDoA sensors are not commonly available, the time series are calculated by direct numericaldifferentiation of acceleration time series. Relative error analysis shows that the error isnon-transitive and total error is within 4%. The density function of TDoA amplitude, frequencycontent and spatial distribution of peak ground jerk (PGJ) are evaluated. The study also includesexamination of some TDoA responses from a seven-story building and comparison of ground TDoA withthe limit TDoA used in the transportation industry for ride comfort. Some potential impacts of TDoAon humans have also been reviewed.

The Whole Theory of This Universe—A Step Forward to Einstein. Part-4: “Concept Map of Rotating Universe”

The article collectively proposes a revolutionary perspective on the universe, intertwining concepts of time, spatial positioning, and cosmic dynamics. We introduce the idea of a rotating universe centered around Mega Central Energy Pools (MCEPs), where time varies relative to the distance from the universe’s center, potentially enabling time travel. This model challenges conventional notions of time and cosmology, suggesting that black holes and white holes act as cosmic recycling factories. Additionally, this model unveils a novel theory of dark matter, positing photons as its constituents and highlighting their role in energy transfer across the cosmos. Furthermore, the investigation into Venus’s unique day-length-to-year-length ratio unveils a microscopic mechanism involving swirling energy droplets, charged particles, and field interactions, offering insights into planetary dynamics on both micro and macro scales.

Comparison of Cox proportional hazards model,Cox proportional hazards with time-varying coefficients model,and lognormal accelerated failure time model:Application in time to event analysis of melioidosis patients

Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.

Concave Group Selection of Nonparameter Additive Accelerated Failure Time Model

In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.

Generation of artificial earthquakes for matching target response unsmooth spectrum via wavelet package transform

The seismic records of target response spectrum used in the time-history analysis should be allowed to meet the norms. However, the previous fitting methods of target spectrum are mostly for the situations that the target spectrum is a smooth curve. In many cases, it needs to match unsmooth target spectrum for single determined response spectrum. An adjustment of time history via wavelet packet transform was presented, which is able to fit unsmooth target spectrum. It was found that there is a certain bias between the band center frequency of the component of seismic record after wavelet packet decomposition and the peak frequency of response spectra of wavelet packet components. For this reason, five strategies were presented to select iteration points, and the effects of the five strategies were compared with two calculation examples. It was turned out that the peak frequency of the response spectrum of wavelet packet component can lead to good fitting effect when it is selected as the iteration point. In the iteration process, it shows great promise in fitting non-smooth target spectrum and has a trend of converge.

Site response in the Qionghai Basin in the Wenchuan earthquake

Amplification effects of soil site response can significantly impact ground motions, and must be considered in the seismic fortification of buildings/structures to prevent or mitigate this potential seismic hazard. Utilizing acceleration time histories from the main shock of the Wenchuan earthquake recorded at four stations （i.e., one on bedrock and three on soil） in the Qionghai Basin, the site responses from three soil sites are studied by using the traditional spectral ratio method. The bedrock site is selected as a reference site. This study found that peak ground accelerations （PGAs） on the soil sites are much larger than on bedrock, with EW, NS and UD components of 3.96-6.58, 6.27-10.98, and 3.17-6.66 times those of the bedrock site, respectively. The amplification effects of the soil sites on ground motions in the frequency range of 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz are significant, depending on the thickness of the soil layer and the frequency content of the site. A significant amplification occurs with high frequency components of ground motion at shallow soil sites, and low and high frequency components of ground motion at intermediate soil sites.

A video camera recording method for measuring terminal velocity of seed dispersal by wind

An accurate and convenient method is essential for measuring the terminal velocity of seeds dispersed by wind.Systematic and random errors produced by existing methods lower the accuracy and convenience in determining seed terminal velocity.In this study,a video camera was used to record the falling process of forty-one species of wind-borne seed with eight appendage structures and seven aerodynamic behaviors in a settling tower at a speed of 50 frames per second(fps).The videos were analyzed by Quick Time Player to determine seed acceleration height,acceleration time,and terminal velocity.The results showed that acceleration height and time,terminal velocity,and the diff erence between terminal velocity and descent velocity(DTD)increased with wing loading.Compared with dropping methods,the camera recording method eliminated the eff ect of acceleration and corrected seed terminal velocity.Based on wing loading,release heights were determined for accurate measurement of terminal velocity of diff erent seeds.This method,due to its inexpensive equipment,high accuracy,easy observation and operation,can be applied to measure the terminal velocity of wind dispersed seeds,and provides a promising method in exploring the dispersal process of seeds.

Simplified Full Dynamic Analysis of a Railway Tunnel in Ethiopia

This paper presents an effective means of analyzing the safety of a tunnel under dynamic loading in areas with seismic records. A particular case of the railway tunnel in the earthquake-prone regions of the escarpment seismic zone of Ethiopia was the specific focus area of the research. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deaggregation have been conducted to determine the design earthquake required as an input for the dynamic analysis. The PSHA performed by considering the operating design earthquake with conservative assumptions of the local geological features resulted in a peak ground acceleration of 0.36. Two pairs of design earthquake have been obtained from the deaggregation process, which were used to filter acceleration time histories for the selected design earthquake from the ground motion database of Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. Finally, full dynamic analyses of the tunnel have been performed by applying the scaled acceleration time histories corresponding to the structure in the specific site. It was demonstrated how to prove the stability of the tunnel located in difficult ground conditions by performing plane strain analyses with the possible minimum computational efforts.

A probability-consistent method based on practical ground surface motion

In this paper, a new method for seismic hazard analysis, the probability-consistent method based on practical ground surface motion is proposed. Time histories on ground surface in the method correspond to earthquakes occurring at potential sources around sites. So of the envelope parameter, response spectrum, peak ground acceleration are of physical sense. Neglecting the response of site soil layers, the method is the same as routine probability-consistent method. The natural seismic acceleration time histories can be used for input wave directly. Generating ground motion is an approximation under lack of data of strong motion. Along with accumulating of the strong motion data around sites, we can describe the seismic environment more objectively.

A Generalized Accelerated Failure Time Model to Predict Restoration Time from Power Outages

Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power and water supply, wastewater management, telecommunication, and transportation facilities. Disruptions in electricity infrastructure have negative impacts on sectors throughout a region, including education, medical services,financial services, and recreation. In this study, we introduced a novel approach to investigate the factors that can be associated with longer restoration time of power service after a hurricane. Considering restoration time as the dependent variable and using a comprehensive set of county-level data, we estimated a generalized accelerated failure time(GAFT) model that accounts for spatial dependence among observations for time to event data. The model fit improved by 12% after considering the effects of spatial correlation in time to event data. Using the GAFT model and Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined:(1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates among different types of power companies—investor-owned power companies, rural and municipal cooperatives;(2) the relationship between the duration of power outage and power system variables;and(3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic attributes. The findings of this study indicate that counties with a higher percentage of customers served by investor-owned electric companies and lower median household income faced power outage for a longer time. This study identified the key factors to predict restoration time of hurricane-induced power outages, allowing disaster management agencies to adopt strategies required for restoration process.

Regression Analysis of Interval-Censored Data with Informative Observation Times Under the Accelerated Failure Time Model

This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed and in the method,the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring or observation process.Also I-spline functions are used to approximate the unknown functions in the model,and a simulation study is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach and suggests that it works well in practical situations.In addition,an illustrative example is provided.

Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Accelerated Failure Time Models with Errors-in-Covariates and Doubly Censored Data

This paper proposes a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for doubly censored data with errors-in-covariates. The authors model the distributions of the unobserved covariates and the regression errors via the Dirichlet processes. Moreover, the authors extend the Bayesian Lasso approach to our semiparametric model for variable selection. The authors develop the Markov chain Monte Carlo strategies for posterior calculation. Simulation studies are conducted to show the performance of the proposed method. The authors also demonstrate the implementation of the method using analysis of PBC data and ACTG 175 data.

General relative error criterion and M-estimation

Relative error rather than the error itself is of the main interest in many practical applications. Criteria based on minimizing the sum of absolute relative errors （MRE） and the sum of squared relative errors （RLS） were proposed in the different areas. Motivated by K. Chen et al.＇s recent work [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 2010, 105： 1104-1112] on the least absolute relative error （LARE） estimation for the accelerated failure time （AFT） model, in this paper, we establish the connection between relative error estimators and the M-estimation in the linear model. This connection allows us to deduce the asymptotic properties of many relative error estimators （e.g., LARE） by the well-developed M-estimation theories. On the other hand, the asymptotic properties of some important estimators （e.g., MRE and RLS） cannot be established directly. In this paper, we propose a general relative error criterion （GREC） for estimating the unknown parameter in the AFT model. Then we develop the approaches to deal with the asymptotic normalities for M-estimators with differentiable loss functions on R or R／{0} in the linear model. The simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimates for the different scenarios. Illustration with a real data example is also provided.

Estimating Survival Treatment Effects with Covariate Adjustment Using Propensity Score

Propensity score is widely used to estimate treatment effects in observational studies.The covariate adjustment using propensity score is the most straightforward method in the literature of causal inference.In this article,we estimate the survival treatment effect with covariate adjustment using propensity score in the semiparametric accelerated failure time model.We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator by simultaneous estimating equations.We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.A real data set from the German Breast Cancer Study Group is analyzed to illustrate the proposed method.

Multistate Models for the Recovery Process in the Covid-19 Context:An Empirical Study of Chinese Enterprises

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected enterprises worldwide.It is thus of practical significance to study the process of enterprise recovery from Covid-19.However,the research on the effects of relevant determinants of business recovery is limited.This article presents a multistate modeling framework that considers the determinants,recovery time,and transition likelihood of Chinese enterprises by the state of those enterprises as a result of the pandemic(recovery state),with the help of an accelerated failure time model.Empirical data from 750 enterprises were used to evaluate the recovery process.The results indicate that the main problems facing non-manufacturing industries are supply shortages and order cancellations.With the increase of supplies and orders,the probability of transition between different recovery states gradually increases,and the recovery time of enterprises becomes shorter.For manufacturing industries,the factors that hinder recovery are more complex.The main problems are employee panic and order cancellations in the initial stage,employee shortages in the middle stage,and raw material shortages in the full recovery stage.This study can provide a reference for enterprise recovery in the current pandemic context and help policymakers and business managers take necessary measures to accelerate recovery.