Quantitative prediction model for the depth limit of oil accumulation in the deep carbonate rocks:A case study of Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin

With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.

Barley Protein LFBEP-C1 from Lactiplantibacillus plantarum dy-1 Fermented Barley Extracts by Inhibiting Lipid Accumulation in a Caenorhabditis elegans Model

Objective This study aimed to investigate the lipid-lowering activity of LFBEP-C1 in high glucose-fed Caenorhabditis elegans(C.elegans).Methods In this study,the fermented barley protein LFBEP-C1 was prepared and tested for its potential anti-obesity effects on C.elegans.The worms were fed Escherichia coli OP50(E.coli OP50),glucose,and different concentrations of LFBEP-C1.Body size,lifespan,movement,triglyceride content,and gene expression were analyzed.The results were analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey's multiple comparison test.Results Compared with the model group,the head-swing frequency of C.elegans in the group of LFBEP-C1 at 20μg/mL increased by 33.88%,and the body-bending frequency increased by 27.09%.This indicated that LFBEP-C1 improved the locomotive ability of C.elegans.The average lifespan of C.elegans reached 13.55 days,and the body length and width of the C.elegans decreased after LFBEP-C1 intake.Additionally,LFBEP-C1 reduced the content of lipid accumulation and triglyceride levels.The expression levels of sbp-1,daf-2,and mdt-15 significantly decreased,while those of daf-16,tph-1,mod-1,and ser-4 significantly increased after LFBEP-C1 intake.Changes in these genes explain the signaling pathways that regulate lipid metabolism.Conclusion LFBEP-C1 significantly reduced lipid deposition in C.elegans fed a high-glucose diet and alleviated the adverse effects of a high-glucose diet on the development,lifespan,and exercise behavior of C.elegans.In addition,LFBEP-C1 regulated lipid metabolism mainly by mediating the expression of genes in the sterol regulatory element-binding protein,insulin,and 5-hydroxytryptamine signaling pathways.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Structural characteristics and deep-water hydrocarbon accumulation model of the Scotian Basin, Eastern Canada

Commercial hydrocarbon reservoirs have been discovered in shallow-water areas of the Scotian Basin, Eastern Canada. However, knowledge about the structure and hydrocarbon accumulation characteristics of the basin is still insufficient, which constrains the oil and gas exploration in deep-water areas. Based on comprehensive data of magnetic anomalies, seismic survey, and drilling, this study determines the structure characteristics of the Scotian Basin and its hydrocarbon accumulation conditions in deep waters and evaluates the deep-water hydrocarbon exploration potential. The transform faults and basement structures in the northern basin control the sedimentary framework showing thick strata in east and thin strata in west of the basin. The bowl-shaped depression formed by thermal subsidence during the transitional phase and the confined environment (micro basins) caused by salt tectonics provide favorable conditions for the development of source rocks during the depression stage (also referred to as the depression period sequence) of the basin. The progradation of large shelf-margin deltas during the drift phase and steep continental slope provide favorable conditions for the deposition of slope-floor fans on continental margins of the basin. Moreover, the source-reservoir assemblage comprising the source rocks within the depression stage and the turbidite sandstones on the continental margin in the deep waters may form large deep-water turbidite sandstone reservoirs. This study will provide a valuable reference for the deep-water hydrocarbon exploration in the Scotian Basin.

Whole petroleum system and hydrocarbon accumulation model in shallow and medium strata in northern Songliao Basin,NE China

Based on the oil and gas exploration practice in the Songliao Basin,combined with the latest exploration and development data such as seismic,well logging and geochemistry,the basic geological conditions,oil and gas types and distribution characteristics,reservoir-forming dynamics,source-reservoir relationship and hydrocarbon accumulation model of the whole petroleum system in shallow and medium strata in the northern part of Songliao Basin are systematically studied.The shallow-medium strata in northern Songliao Basin have the conditions for the formation of whole petroleum system,with sufficient oil and gas sources,diverse reservoir types and well-developed transport system,forming a whole petroleum system centered on the source rocks of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation.Different types of oil and gas resources in the whole petroleum system are correlated with each other in terms of depositional system,lithologic association and physical property changes,and they,to a certain extent,have created the spatial framework with orderly symbiosis of shallow-medium conventional oil reservoirs,tight oil reservoirs and shale oil reservoirs in northern Songliao Basin.Vertically,the resources are endowed as conventional oil above source,shale oil/tight oil within source,and tight oil below source.Horizontally,conventional oil,tight oil,interlayer-type shale oil,and pure shale-type shale oil are developed in an orderly way,from the margin of the basin to the center of the depression.Three hydrocarbon accumulation models are recognized for the whole petroleum system in northern Songliao Basin,namely,buoyancy-driven charging of conventional oil above source,retention of shale oil within source,and pressure differential-driven charging of tight oil below source.

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Heterogeneity and differential hydrocarbon accumulation model of deep reservoirs in foreland thrust belts: A case study of deep Cretaceous Qingshuihe Formation clastic reservoirs in southern Junggar Basin, NW China

Using the data of drilling, logging, core, experiments and production, the heterogeneity and differential hydrocarbon accumulation model of deep reservoirs in Cretaceous Qingshuihe Formation(K1q) in the western section of the foreland thrust belt in southern Junggar Basin are investigated. The target reservoirs are characterized by superimposition of conglomerates, sandy conglomerates and sandstones, with high content of plastic clasts. The reservoir space is mainly composed of intergranular pores. The reservoirs are overall tight, and the sandy conglomerate has the best physical properties. The coupling of short deep burial period with low paleotemperature gradient and formation overpressure led to the relatively weak diagenetic strength of the reservoirs. Specifically, the sandy conglomerates show relatively low carbonate cementation, low compaction rate and high dissolution porosity. The special stress-strain mechanism of the anticline makes the reservoirs at the top of the anticline turning point more reformed by fractures than those at the limbs, and the formation overpressure makes the fractures in open state. Moreover, the sandy conglomerates have the highest oil saturation. Typical anticline reservoirs are developed in deep part of the thrust belt, but characterized by "big trap with small reservoir". Significantly, the sandy conglomerates at the top of anticline turning point have better quality, lower in-situ stress and higher structural position than those at the limbs,with the internal hydrocarbons most enriched, making them high-yield oil/gas layers. The exponential decline of fractures makes hydrocarbon accumulation difficult in the reservoirs at the limbs. Nonetheless, plane hydrocarbon distribution is more extensive at the gentle limb than the steep limb.

Reservoir characteristics and formation model of Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Through core observation,thin section identification,X-ray diffraction analysis,scanning electron microscopy,and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption and isothermal adsorption experiments,the lithology and pore characteristics of the Upper Carboniferous bauxite series in eastern Ordos Basin were analyzed to reveal the formation and evolution process of the bauxite reservoirs.A petrological nomenclature and classification scheme for bauxitic rocks based on three units(aluminum hydroxides,iron minerals and clay minerals)is proposed.It is found that bauxitic mudstone is in the form of dense massive and clastic structures,while the(clayey)bauxite is of dense massive,pisolite,oolite,porous soil and clastic structures.Both bauxitic mudstone and bauxite reservoirs develop dissolution pores,intercrystalline pores,and microfractures as the dominant gas storage space,with the porosity less than 10% and mesopores in dominance.The bauxite series in the North China Craton can be divided into five sections,i.e.,ferrilite(Shanxi-style iron ore,section A),bauxitic mudstone(section B),bauxite(section C),bauxite mudstone(debris-containing,section D)and dark mudstone-coal section(section E).The burrow/funnel filling,lenticular,layered/massive bauxite deposits occur separately in the karst platforms,gentle slopes and low-lying areas.The karst platforms and gentle slopes are conducive to surface water leaching,with strong karstification,well-developed pores,large reservoir thickness and good physical properties,but poor strata continuity.The low-lying areas have poor physical properties but relatively continuous and stable reservoirs.The gas enrichment in bauxites is jointly controlled by source rock,reservoir rock and fractures.This recognition provides geological basis for the exploration and development of natural gas in the Upper Carboniferous in the study area and similar bauxite systems.

Tight gas charging and accumulation mechanisms and mathematical model

The gas-water distribution and production heterogeneity of tight gas reservoirs have been summarized from experimental and geological observations, but the charging and accumulation mechanisms have not been examined quantitatively by mathematical model. The tight gas charging and accumulation mechanisms were revealed from a combination of physical simulation of nuclear magnetic resonance coupling displacement, numerical simulation considering material and mechanical equilibria, as well as actual geological observation. The results show that gas migrates into tight rocks to preferentially form a gas saturation stabilization zone near the source-reservoir interface. When the gas source is insufficient, gas saturation reduction zone and uncharged zone are formed in sequence from the source-reservoir interface. The better the source rock conditions with more gas expulsion volume and higher overpressure, the thicker the gas saturation stabilization and reduction zones, and the higher the overall gas saturation. When the source rock conditions are limited, the better the tight reservoir conditions with higher porosity and permeability as well as larger pore throat, the thinner the gas saturation stabilization and reduction zones, but the gas saturation is high. The sweet spot of tight gas is developed in the high-quality reservoir near the source rock, which often corresponds to the gas saturation stabilization zone. The numerical simulation results by mathematical model agree well with the physical simulation results by nuclear magnetic resonance coupling displacement, and reasonably explain the gas-water distribution and production pattern of deep reservoirs in the Xujiaweizi fault depression of the Songliao Basin and tight gas reservoirs in the Linxing-Huangfu area of the Ordos Basin.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.

Geostatistical seismic inversion and 3D modelling of metric flow units,porosity and permeability in Brazilian presalt reservoir

Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.

Hydrocarbon accumulation in deep ancient carbonate-evaporite assemblages

The Ediacaran–Ordovician strata within three major marine basins(Tarim,Sichuan,and Ordos)in China are analyzed.Based on previous studies focusing on the characteristics of the Neoproterozoic–Cambrian strata within the three major basins(East Siberian,Oman,and Officer in Australia)overseas,the carbonate–evaporite assemblages in the target interval are divided into three types:intercalated carbonate and gypsum salt,interbedded carbonate and gypsum salt,and coexisted carbonate,gypsum salt and clastic rock.Moreover,the concept and definition of the carbonate-evaporite assemblage are clarified.The results indicate that the oil and gas in the carbonate-evaporite assemblage are originated from two types of source rocks:shale and argillaceous carbonate,and confirmed the capability of gypsum salt in the saline environment to drive the source rock hydrocarbon generation.The dolomite reservoirs are classified in two types:gypseous dolomite flat,and grain shoal&microbial mound.This study clarifies that the penecontemporaneous or epigenic leaching of atmospheric fresh water mainly controlled the large-scale development of reservoirs.Afterwards,burial dissolution transformed and reworked the reservoirs.The hydrocarbon accumulation in carbonate-evaporite assemblage can be categorized into eight sub-models under three models(sub-evaporite hydrocarbon accumulation,supra-evaporite hydrocarbon accumulation,and inter-evaporite hydrocarbon accumulation).As a result,the Cambrian strata in the Tazhong Uplift North Slope,Maigaiti Slope and Mazatag Front Uplift Zone of the Tarim Basin,the Cambrian strata in the eastern-southern area of the Sichuan Basin,and the inter-evaporite Ma-4 Member of Ordovician in the Ordos Basin,China,are defined as favorable targets for future exploration.

耦合优化蚁群算法与P-Median model的选址模型设计

为节省城建部门对于公共体育设施的投入成本以及提高城市人民生活质量,以运动场所优化选址为例,提出一种新型设施选址模型。该模型主要基于P-Median model(最小化阻抗模型)根据需求点数量从全部候选设施选址中选择设施空间位置,让用户达到离自己最近设施距离成本总和最小的目的,对选址的基本原则和实际情况提出要求,构造目标函数用于优化后蚁群算法求解进行选址工作。优化蚁群算法实现基于Python语言模块,通过改进蚁群原始信息素,提升原有算法的收敛速度,求出目标函数最优解,可以很好地模拟对于运动场所的选址。用二者耦合进行优势互补所设计的选址模型来搜寻研究区蚁群信息素浓度残留最大的栅格像元,从而确定未被已有设施点服务半径覆盖的最佳设施点建立位置。实验结果表明,该新型选址模型相较于最小化阻抗模型与最大化覆盖模型,新增优化设施点使整体服务半径覆盖率分别高出10.42%和6.95%,适合求解较为精确且小规模空间下的选址问题。

Toward a Learnable Climate Model in the Artificial Intelligence Era

Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Mshpy23:a user-friendly,parameterized model of magnetosheath conditions

Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.