The Deformation of Active Tectonic Blocks on the Chinese Mainland and Its Relationship with Seismic Activity

Based on the hypothesis of the active tectonic blocks on the Chinese continent and its adjacent regions (both the method of the DDA on a spherical surface and the GPS survey results observed from 1991 to 2001 are used), the movements and deformations of each active tectonic block are calculated. The calculation results show that although the movements and deformations of active tectonic blocks in the eastern region and in the western region of China are different, active tectonic blocks in the same active tectonic block region are coherent. Then, the relative velocities of the active tectonic blocks’ boundary zones are calculated, and the relationship between current crustal motion and strong seismic activities is discussed. Earthquakes ( M S≥7 0) on the Chinese continent since 1988 all occurred on boundary zones of active tectonic blocks with high slipping speed.

Research on the Characteristics of Large Earthquake Activity on the Active Tectonic Boundaries on the Chinese Mainland

Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic block regions (grade Ⅰ) and the 22 active tectonic blocks (grade Ⅱ) are studied. The seismicity levels on the active tectonic block boundaries are discussed considering the large earthquake frequency and the released strain energy in unit distance and time. The theoretic maximal magnitude and the recurrence period of each boundary are then calculated from the G-R relation. By comparing this with the actual earthquake records, it is found that the intensities of the earthquake deduced from the seismic activity parameter (a/b) on the main active boundaries on the Chinese mainland are consistent with that of the natural earthquakes. Meanwhile, an inverse relation is found between the recurrence periods of large earthquakes and the tectonic motion rate on the boundaries. These results show that the a, b values of each boundary obtained in this paper are valuable. In addition, the present seismic activities and hazards of these boundaries are also probed into with the historical data and their elapsed time on each boundary based on the hypothesis that the large earthquakes satisfy Poisson distribution.

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake records.Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress increase.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

Magnetic constraints on the spatial distribution of seismic activity

The lithospheric magnetic field （LMF） in China and its surrounding are calculated using the spherical har- monic coefficients given by the NGDC-720 model. The LMF comes from the magnetization of minerals in the crust and in the uppermost mantle. It may, therefore, provide unique insight into lithospheric tectonic processes and mechanisms. Here, we study the geomagnetic manifesta- tion of active tectonic blocks, and find a close correlation between the LMF and seismicity. Many large faults are found to closely overlap with magnetic anomalies, or are distributed along the boundaries of magnetic anomalies. Earthquakes in these fault regions have occurred on the boundaries of magnetic anomalies, or in the transition zones between posilive and negative anomalies. We ana- lyze the components of the LMF, and the LMFs at different altitudes, finding that the vertical component, Bz at 200 kin, is the most related to seismic activity. Relevant physical mechanisms are also discussed. We propose that the stress or viscosity differences caused by temperature variations, which manifest in the LMF, may be the pre- dominant reason for the correlation between the LMF and seismic activity along large faults.