The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of...The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of making erroneous diagnoses of the instability of the planetary boundary layer of air.Within the framework of this study,the task of probabilistic forecasting of diagnostic parameters and their combinations,leading in their totality to the formation of an unstable state of the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere,was carried out.It is this state that,as shown by previous studies,a priori contribution to the development of a number of weather phenomena dangerous for society(squalls,hail,heavy rains,etc.).The results of applying the minimax method made it possible to identify a number of parameters,such as the intensity of circulation,the activity of the Earth’s magnetosphere,and the components of the geostrophic wind velocity,the combination of which led to the development of instability.In the future,it is possible to further expand the number of diagnosed parameters to identify more sensitive elements.In this sense,the minimax method,the usefulness of which is shown in this study,can be considered as one of the preparatory steps for the subsequent more detailed method for forecasting individual hazardous weather phenomena.展开更多
The Valab project (Integrated Ecosystemic value-enhancement of the Guadeloupean Forest Agrobiodiversity) is a participatory action research that aims to explore the feasibility of diversification activities within the...The Valab project (Integrated Ecosystemic value-enhancement of the Guadeloupean Forest Agrobiodiversity) is a participatory action research that aims to explore the feasibility of diversification activities within the forest understorey. In the exploratory phase of the project, we studied stakeholders’ opinions on the positive and negative impacts of introducing livestock activities within a forest environment, as well as breeders’ constraints or motivations for setting up livestock units within agroforestry systems in the private forests of Guadeloupe. To establish a diagnosis of the current situation, 51 stakeholders (St) and 49 farmers (Fr) were interviewed on their perceptions, opinions, motivations and preferences. Forty-one percent of the St has had a generally positive appreciation of livestock activities, while on the opposite 31% have had a resolutely negative posture depending on their area of expertise. Their views on the possible positive effects or negative interactions between livestock and agroforestry activities were analysed in order to suggest possible approaches for the authorities or associations. Unanimously, the farmers replied that their motivations followed economic strategies: for self-consumption or sale. But their decision-making processes were also non-economic. Many of them (36% Fr) gave importance to their activity in the construction of their identity, whether it was through a desire to perpetuate traditions or to maintain family activities. The main constraints identified were natural constraints (61% Fr), including topography, climate and predators. While 28% of Fr notified their motivations for environmental protection. Another constraint was of a technical nature (44% Fr) since farmers asked for more technical references or support services. Further researches are required to study the interactions between animals and the undergrowth by describing their respective ecosystem services in order to enhance their positive interactions.展开更多
Based on a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution,periodic changes,and influencing factors of forest fires in Inner Mongolia,through fixed-point observations and experiments on ...Based on a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution,periodic changes,and influencing factors of forest fires in Inner Mongolia,through fixed-point observations and experiments on the ground,forest combustibles are divided into the ground litter layer,ground standing litter,and living plants.The combustibles are divided into various grades according to their load,dryness and combustibility.By determining the influencing factors of each combustible grade,a forecast model of the combustibility grade of combustibles is established.The forecast model has been widely used in the mid-and long-term forecast model of fire danger grade,and the accuracy rate of the fall area forecast through back-generation fitting verification is above 88.43%.展开更多
文摘The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of making erroneous diagnoses of the instability of the planetary boundary layer of air.Within the framework of this study,the task of probabilistic forecasting of diagnostic parameters and their combinations,leading in their totality to the formation of an unstable state of the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere,was carried out.It is this state that,as shown by previous studies,a priori contribution to the development of a number of weather phenomena dangerous for society(squalls,hail,heavy rains,etc.).The results of applying the minimax method made it possible to identify a number of parameters,such as the intensity of circulation,the activity of the Earth’s magnetosphere,and the components of the geostrophic wind velocity,the combination of which led to the development of instability.In the future,it is possible to further expand the number of diagnosed parameters to identify more sensitive elements.In this sense,the minimax method,the usefulness of which is shown in this study,can be considered as one of the preparatory steps for the subsequent more detailed method for forecasting individual hazardous weather phenomena.
文摘The Valab project (Integrated Ecosystemic value-enhancement of the Guadeloupean Forest Agrobiodiversity) is a participatory action research that aims to explore the feasibility of diversification activities within the forest understorey. In the exploratory phase of the project, we studied stakeholders’ opinions on the positive and negative impacts of introducing livestock activities within a forest environment, as well as breeders’ constraints or motivations for setting up livestock units within agroforestry systems in the private forests of Guadeloupe. To establish a diagnosis of the current situation, 51 stakeholders (St) and 49 farmers (Fr) were interviewed on their perceptions, opinions, motivations and preferences. Forty-one percent of the St has had a generally positive appreciation of livestock activities, while on the opposite 31% have had a resolutely negative posture depending on their area of expertise. Their views on the possible positive effects or negative interactions between livestock and agroforestry activities were analysed in order to suggest possible approaches for the authorities or associations. Unanimously, the farmers replied that their motivations followed economic strategies: for self-consumption or sale. But their decision-making processes were also non-economic. Many of them (36% Fr) gave importance to their activity in the construction of their identity, whether it was through a desire to perpetuate traditions or to maintain family activities. The main constraints identified were natural constraints (61% Fr), including topography, climate and predators. While 28% of Fr notified their motivations for environmental protection. Another constraint was of a technical nature (44% Fr) since farmers asked for more technical references or support services. Further researches are required to study the interactions between animals and the undergrowth by describing their respective ecosystem services in order to enhance their positive interactions.
基金Supported by Scientific and Technological Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(2020GG0016).
文摘Based on a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution,periodic changes,and influencing factors of forest fires in Inner Mongolia,through fixed-point observations and experiments on the ground,forest combustibles are divided into the ground litter layer,ground standing litter,and living plants.The combustibles are divided into various grades according to their load,dryness and combustibility.By determining the influencing factors of each combustible grade,a forecast model of the combustibility grade of combustibles is established.The forecast model has been widely used in the mid-and long-term forecast model of fire danger grade,and the accuracy rate of the fall area forecast through back-generation fitting verification is above 88.43%.
