Sample size adaptive strategy for time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulation

When multiphysics coupling calculations contain time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, these simulations often account for the largest part of the calculation time, which is insufferable in certain important cases. This study proposes an adaptive strategy for automatically adjusting the sample size to fulfil more reasonable simulations. This is realized based on an extension of the Shannon entropy concept and is essentially different from the popular methods in timeindependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, such as controlling the sample size according to the relative error of a target tally or by experience. The results of the two models show that this strategy can yield almost similar results while significantly reducing the calculation time. Considering the efficiency, the sample size should not be increased blindly if the efficiency cannot be enhanced further. The strategy proposed herein satisfies this requirement.

Climate Change vs Cultural Heritage: An Adaptation Strategy for the Archaeological Site of Ancient Messene

This article examines the effects of climate change on archaeological sites, using as a case study the archaeological site of Ancient Messene in Greece, and proposes an integrated adaptation strategy. In order to determine the site’s most significant risks, a climate data analysis was conducted, taking into account three different climate emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and two future periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability assessment methodology was adopted to assess the vulnerability of the archaeological site to the effects of climate change. This is the first time such a methodology has been followed in Greece. The analysis revealed that the site’s critical hazards are fire, desertification, and flooding. The geographical location of the site in an intensely dry microclimate and the lack of safe and functional electromechanical and road infrastructure increase its vulnerability. The materials of the monuments are indirectly and directly impacted by climate change, whereas the vegetation is negatively impacted by the frequency of extreme events, especially wildfires. Based on the analysis results, a five-axis adaptation strategy was developed.

Unveiling the adaptation strategies of woody plants in remnant forest patches to spatiotemporal urban expansion through leaf trait networks

Background:With the expansion of urban areas,the remnants of forested areas play a crucial role in preserving biodiversity in urban environments.This study aimed to explore the impact of spatiotemporal urban expansion on the networks of leaf traits in woody plants within remnant forest patches,thereby enhancing our understanding of plant adaptive strategies and contributing to the conservation of urban biodiversity.Methods:Our study examined woody plants within 120 sample plots across 15 remnant forest patches in Guiyang,China.We constructed leaf trait networks (LTNs) based on 26 anatomical,structural,and compositional leaf traits and assessed the effects of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion on these LTNs.Results and conclusions:Our results indicate that shrubs within these patches have greater average path lengths and diameters than trees.With increasing urban expansion intensity,we observed a rise in the edge density of the LTN-shrubs.Additionally,modularity within the networks of shrubs decreased as road density and urban expansion intensity increased,and increases in the average path length and average clustering coefficient for shrubs were observed with a rise in the composite terrain complexity index.Notably,patches subjected to‘leapfrog’expansion exhibited greater average patch length and diameter than those experiencing edge growth.Stomatal traits were found to have high degree centrality within these networks,signifying their substantial contribution to multiple functions.In urban remnant forests,shrubs bolster their resilience to variable environmental pressures by augmenting the complexity of their leaf trait networks.

A systematic review of climate change impacts,adaptation strategies,and policy development in West Africa

Climate change studies are diverse with no single study giving a comprehensive review of climate change impacts,adaptation strategies,and policy development in West Africa.The unavailability of an all-inclusive study to serve as a guide for practitioners affects the effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies proposed and adopted in the West African sub-region.The purpose of this study was to review the impacts of climate change risks on the crop,fishery,and livestock sectors,as well as the climate change adaptation strategies and climate-related policies aimed at helping to build resilient agricultural production systems in West Africa.The review process followed a series of rigorous stages until the final selection of 56 articles published from 2009 to 2023.Generally,the results highlighted the adverse effects of climate change risks on food security.We found a continuous decline in food crop production.Additionally,the livestock sector experienced morbidity and mortality,as well as reduction in meat and milk production.The fishery sector recorded loss of fingerlings,reduction in fish stocks,and destruction of mariculture and aquaculture.In West Africa,climate-smart agriculture technologies,physical protection of fishing,and inclusion of gender perspectives in programs appear to be the major adaptation strategies.The study therefore recommends the inclusion of ecosystem and biodiversity restoration,weather insurance,replacement of unsafe vessels,and strengthening gender equality in all climate change mitigation programs,as these will help to secure enough food for present and future generations.

Farmers’ Knowledge and Perceptions of the Effects of Climate Variability and Pollution on Crop Production and Their Varying Adaptation Strategies in The Gambia

Crop and livestock production is critical to food security in The Gambia. Over the years, the country has experienced a reduced yield due to perceived climate change events with limited studies on how climate change and pollution affect crop production. This study assesses farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of the effects of climate variability and pollution on crop production and their varying adaptation strategies in The Gambia. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used in this study. The sample size for quantitative data collection was calculated as 432 while the qualitative data involves both the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The focus group discussions comprised two districts in each of the six agricultural regions and two farming communities engaged in crop production were chosen from each district. Furthermore, eight key informant interviews from relevant institutions were conducted. The study shows that The Gambia is highly vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Although most farmers opined that agricultural land contamination emanates from farm runoff and indiscriminate waste dumping, they had little knowledge of heavy metal pollution and bioremediation. The results showed that farmers experienced constraints such as inadequate access to credit, water, and irrigation facilities, insufficient access to efficient inputs, salt intrusion, etc. which threatened food security. The study concludes that crop farmers acknowledged the existence and impacts of climate change, and therefore recommend the availability and affordability of climate change resilient crops and promote variability awareness campaigns to address climate change impacts in The Gambia.

A Review of Assessment and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Areas in South China

This paper reviews assessment of climate change impacts on economy, society and ecological environment in the coastal areas of South China based on published literatures; it also proposes suitable adaptation strategies and counter- measures. Review shows that climate change has resulted in sea level rise in the coastal areas of South China, increasing the occurrence and intensity of storm surges, aggravating the influence of saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, urban drainage and flood control, threatening the coastal facility and infrastructures, inundating lowland areas, offsetting mudflat silting, and degrading mangroves and corm reef ecosystem. Therefore, in order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and to support the sustainable development in the coastal areas of South China, it is critical to improve the monitoring and early warning system, enhance prevention criteria, fortify coastal protection engineering, strengthen saltwater prevention, and reinforce the ecological restoration and protection.

Adaptation strategy for sea level rise in vulnerable areasalong China's coast

It can be seen from the calculation that the vulnerable area along China's coast in which the elevation is less than 5 m, is 143 900 km2, accounting for about 11. 3% of the total area of the 11 coastal provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. These areas are threatened to varying extent by sea level rise. According to prediction, the relative sea level rise (including global sea level rise caused by climate change and local relative as level rise caused by vertical crust movement and ground subsidence) along China's coast will be 4～16 cm by the year 2030 with the optimum estimated value of 6～14cm. It will be 9～26 cm by the year 2050 with the optimum estimated value of 12-23 cm. And it will be 31-74 cm by the year 2100 with the optimum estimated value of 47～65 cm. The calcuation result shows that the percentage of the cost for up-grading (heightening and consolidating) sea dykes/walls in adaptation strategy in the losses of submerged areas varies from area to area: 6. 9% in the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Deta, 1. 3% ～24. 6% in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Delta, and 0. 9%～2. 0% in the Huanghe River Delta.

Transcriptomic and physiological analyses identifying Lanzhou lily(Lilium davidii var.unicolor)drought adaptation strategies

Drought stress is the main limiting plant growth factor in arid and semiarid regions.The Lanzhou lily(Lilium davidii var.unicolor)is the only sweet-tasting lily grown in these regions of China that offers highly edible,medicinal,health,and ornamental value.The Tresor lily is an ornamental flower known for its strong resistance.Plants were grown under three different drought intensity treatments,namely,being watered at intervals of 5,15,and 25 d(either throughout the study or during specific growth stages).We measured the biomass,leaf area,photosynthetic response,chlorophyll content(SPAD value),and osmoregulation of both the Lanzhou lily and the Tresor lily(Lilium‘Tresor’).Additionally,we employed RNA sequencing(RNA-Seq)and qRT-PCR to investigate transcriptomic changes of the Lanzhou lily in response to drought stress.Results showed that under drought stress,the decreasing rate in the Lanzhou lily bulb weight was lower than the corresponding Tresor lily bulb rate;the net photosynthetic rate,transpiration rate,and stomatal conductance of the Lanzhou lily were all higher compared to the Tresor lily;osmoregulation constituents,such as glucose,fructose,sucrose,trehalose,and soluble sugar,in the Lanzhou lily were comparatively higher;PYL,NCED,and ERS genes were significantly expressed in the Lanzhou lily.Under moderate drought,the biosynthesis of flavonoids,circadian rhythms,and the tryptophan metabolism pathway of the Lanzhou lily were all significant.Under severe drought stress,fatty acid elongation,photosynthetic antenna protein,plant hormone signal transduction,flavone and flavonol biosynthesis,and the carotenoid biosynthesis pathway were all significant.The Lanzhou lily adapted to drought stress by coordinating its organs and the unique role of its bulb,regulating photosynthesis,increasing osmolyte content,activating circadian rhythms,signal transduction,fatty acid elongation metabolism,and phenylalanine and flavonoid metabolic pathways,which may collectively be the main adaptation strategy and mechanisms used by the Lanzhou lily under drought stress.

Flexible nest site selection of the endangered Oriental Storks(Ciconia boyciana):Trade-off from adaptive strategies

Nest site selection is a vital component of bird reproduction success,and an adaptive behavior conducted to decrease nest predation risk with avoiding external disturbances.Understanding patterns of nest site selection can provide insights into how species adapt to changes in their habitat and has important conservation implications.In this study,we used microhabitat variables and multi-scale data with a field survey of nest occurrence to determine nest site selection patterns and adaptive strategies of the breeding Oriental Storks(Ciconia boyciana)in different nest areas.Results demonstrate that the nest site microhabitat characteristics of the breeding Oriental Storks significantly differed among the three nesting areas,and nest height was higher in the middle and lower Yangtze River floodplain than in the Northeast China and Bohai Bay nest areas.The food resources and intensity of human disturbance had the greatest effects on the nest site selection of the breeding Oriental Storks.The intensity of human disturbance was positively correlated with the nest height of the breeding Oriental Storks in Bohai Bay and the middle and lower Yangtze River floodplain;however,nest height decreased with the abundance of food resources in the Northeast China nest area.Our findings indicate that the nest site selection patterns of Oriental Storks showed flexible adaptive strategies.In safer environments,nests were lower and closer to food resources,which allows parent storks to invest more in the nestlings.However,in areas where human activity was intense,nests were higher to ensure the safety of their offspring.Some measures that could be taken to improve the breeding habitat of Oriental Storks include increasing the percentage of wetland areas in nesting areas to enhance food resources availability and setting artificial nests at suitable heights in potential nesting grounds to encourage nesting.Finally,the establishment of soft barriers around the nesting areas could increase the safety of nests.

Reliability and Validity Test of Questionnaire on the Adaptation Strategy of Cryosphere Changes in Arid Inland River Basin

[Objective] The aim was to test the reliability and validity of questionnaire on the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin. [Method] A questionnaire on 'the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin' was carried out in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin, and its reliability and validity were tested by means of statistical method, so as to investigate the stability and accuracy of questionnaire. [Result] Reliability analysis of questionnaire showed that the split-half reliability coefficient of questionnaire in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin was 0.729 and 0.750, respectively, and Cronbach’s α reliability coefficient was 0.613 and 0.616, respectively, which revealed that the questionnaire had good equivalence and internal consistency which reflected good reliability and stability. According to validity analysis on questionnaire, there was significant correlation between the score of most questions and questionnaire, and it indicated that questionnaire had high content validity. There were 8 common factors collected from 26 questions, which were summarized as agricultural planting, agricultural water conservation, life satisfaction, cultivated land variation, social integration sense, climate and cryosphere changes, capital input improved by environment and family economic condition, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of various questions in corresponding indexes was higher, and reflected structure was in full accord with questionnaire content, which revealed that questionnaire owned good construct validity. [Conclusion] With higher stability and accuracy, the questionnaire could determine the desired topic and content and was suitable for the study on the perception of common people and choices of adaptive strategy under cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin in northwestern China.

Taking Diplomatic Strategy Adaptable to Environment

Looking from China’s neighboring environment, the America factor is undoubtedly the most important factor in analyzing China’s neighboring security. Speaking of U. S. influence on China’s neighboring security, some scholars tend to believe that the unfavorable factors play a dominant role. This conclusion comes from the "new moonshape encirclement" already existing since the Cold War in America,

Choice of Beef Herd Adaptation Strategy on Canadian Prairie Mixed Farms Under Extreme Climate Events

Economic impact of climate extremes on beef operation is expected to be significant due to its direct impact on feed production. Impact of such events on farm management and longer term farm financial situation is relatively unstudied in the Canadian Prairie. This study compared three alternative beef herd management strategies in dealing with climate extreme events under reference climate scenario of 1971-2000 and the future scenario of 2041-2070. The study used farm simulation model that integrated the model of cattle herd simulation, pasture model, crop simulation model combined with models of economic decisions. Purchasing feed and maintaining herd size is preferred option in dealing with drought Changes in management such as early weaning combined with limit feeding strategies reduce the feed demand and also reduce the financial burden during the years of extreme event, but it has severe negative consequences on amount of slaughter cattle sold. Cull herd strategy not only reduces feed demand but also increases income from sell of herd during the year/s of extreme event, but it severely impacts the farm＇s long term output supply potential. However, expansion of existing agriculture risk management policy to cover climate risk in beef production is necessary to support farmers in the year/s to extreme events.

Climate Change Perceptions , Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of F arm Households in Potohar Region of Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change has become a global phenomenon and is adversely affecting agricultural development across the globe.Developing countries like Pakistan where 18.9%of the GDP(gross domestic product)came from the agriculture sector and also 42%of the labor force involved in agriculture.They are directly and indirectly affected by climate change due to an increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic extreme events such as floods,droughts and extreme weather events.In this paper,we have focused on the impact of climate change on farm households and their adaptation strategies to cope up the climatic extremes.For this purpose,we have selected farm households by using multistage stratified random sampling from four districts of the Potohar region i.e.Attock,Rawalpindi,Jhelum and Chakwal.These districts were selected by dividing the Potohar region into rain-fed areas.We have employed logistic regression to assess the determinants of adaptation to climate change and its impact.We have also calculated the marginal effect of each independent variable of the logistic regression to measure the immediate rate of change in the model.In order to check the significance of our suggested model,we have used hypothesis testing.

Climate Change Adaptation and Historic Settlements: Evidence from the Old Town of Corfu

The Old Town of Corfu is an excellent example of a historic town and a World Heritage Site, distinguished by its authentic and unique character, as reflected in its Venetian-era fortifications and extensive historic building stock. Simultaneously, the Old Town of Corfu is also a vibrant modern city vulnerable to various pressures, including climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of climate change on this modern city monument, assess its vulnerability using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s methodology, and develop a comprehensive set of adaptation proposals. The methodology of this paper is based on the analysis of climate data for the Old Town of Corfu, from which the assessment of the extreme weather events and climate changes that pose the greatest threat to the Old Town and the assessment of its vulnerability to these threats are derived. The dense geometrical characteristics of the city’s structure, the intense pathology observed in the materials and structures of the historic building stock, problems in the existing electromechanical infrastructure, and the poor management of issues such as increased tourism and heavy traffic congestion are the primary factors that make the Old Town of Corfu vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Change of Grain Production of China in Recent Years and Its Adaptation Strategies

A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production（including wheat,maize and rice）,as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.

Climate change and Chinese farmers: Perceptions and determinants of adaptive strategies

Farmers’ perceptions, beliefs, adaptive strategies, and barriers regarding climate change are critical to promoting sustainable ecosystems and societal stability. This paper is based on an extensive survey of 1 500 farmers and their households in Henan Province in China during 2013–2014. Henan is the largest agricultural province in China with over 51 million farmers. The survey results showed that approximately 57% of the respondents perceived the direct impact of climate change during the past 10 years, with 70.3% believing that climate change posed a risk to their livelihood. Not surprisingly, most farmers reported that they have adopted new measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The main barriers hindering farmers’ adopting adaptation measures were lack of funds and timely information. A multinomial logit model revealed that land ownership, knowledge of crop variety and the causes of climate change, as well as the belief of climate change, were all positively related to the likelihood of employing adaptive strategies. Moreover, the percentage of households engaging in agriculture activity, and years of engaging in farming were both negatively correlated with famer’s likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. More importantly, farmers with high incomes were less likely to adopt adaptive strategies and more willing to engage in other business activities. In conclusion, it is important to communicate climate change related information and government policies in rural areas, promote farmer associations and other educational outreach efforts to assist Chinese farmers to deal with climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health and Adaptation Strategies in South China

This study reviews the impacts of climate change on human health and presents corresponding adaptation strategies in South China. The daily mean surface air temperatures above or below 26.4~C increase the death risk for people in Guangzhou, especially the elderly are vulnerable to variations in temperature. Heat waves can cause insomnia, fatigue, clinical exacerbation, or death from heatstroke etc., while cold spells show increases in patients with fractures. During a cold spell period, the rates of both on-site emergency rescues and non-implementable rescues increase, and the risk of non-accidental deaths and respiratory disease deaths significantly rise as well. Both time series of hazy days and ozone concentrations have significant positive correlations with the number of patients with cardiovascular diseases. Both malaria and dengue fever reach higher altitudes and mountainous areas due to climate warming. Climate change is likely to bring stronger heat waves in the future, thereby increasing heat wave-related illnesses and deaths, particularly in the metropolitan areas of the Pearl River Delta. The projected increase of consecutive cold days in Guangdong province and parts of northern Guangxi province will affect residents＇ health in the future. The rising temperature exaggerates ozone pollution, but it is not clear whether climate change is aggravating or mitigating haze pollution. The transmission potential of malaria in South China will increase by 39%-140% and the transmission season will extend by 1 2 months with an air temperature increase of 1-2~C. By 2050, most areas in Hainan province are projected to convert from non-endemic dengue into endemic dengue areas. The aging population will cause more vulnerable people. To mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on human health, sound and scientific adaptation strategies must be adopted in advance, such as strengthening the surveillance of epidemic diseases in potential transmission areas, conducting timely weather forecasting for human health, evaluating health vulnerability to climate change, improving environmental and health education, and strengthening hazard management and the cooperation between meteorological and health departments.

Farmers' perceptions of and adaptations to drought in Herat Province, Afghanistan

Drought is a significant natural hazard in Herat Province, Afghanistan. The objective of this study was to explore farmers' perceptions of the drought's prevalence and characteristics, its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, their strategies for coping with and mitigating it, and types of conflicts and resolution mechanisms. A questionnaire was completed by 147 farming households. The results indicate that farmers' perceptions regarding drought are in line with the results obtained using the precipitation data. Even though the respondents have religious belief in interpreting the weather related issues, they also perceived drought as the climatic and environmental factors such as increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and other factors like war, financial weakness, deforestation, over-exploitation of groundwater, lack of electricity supply etc. The results show that drought has had serious economic impacts, including loss of employment and reduction in crop yield and livestock production, which have reduced farmers' livelihood options and weakened their financial situation. Social impacts have included migration, a sense of hopelessness and loss, conflicts over water, health problems, impacts on the schooling of children, malnutrition, and limits to food options. Significant environmental impacts such as an increase in temperature, pasture and forest degradation, deterioration of water quality, damage to fish and wildlife habitats, and groundwater depletion were also reported. Farmers used local techniques to adapt to drought and lessen its effects. Farmers perceived irrigation water to be a major source of conflict. Local elders, water-user associations, and formal courts were reported to be the most successful conflict resolution methods. It is expected that the results of this study will support policy makers within government and development agencies in Afghanistan to develop future drought adaptation policies.

Trade-offs and synergies of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa:A systematic review

Climate change adaptation strategies provide a cushion for smallholder farmers,especially in subSaharan Africa against the risks posed by climate hazards such as droughts and floods.However,the decision-making process in climate adaptation is complex.To better understand the dynamics of the process,we strive to answer this question:what are the potential trade-offs and synergies related to decision-making and implementation of climate adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa region?A systematic literature review methodology was used through the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis(PRISMA)statement with the four-stage inclusion/exclusion criteria to identify the literature from selected databases(Scopus and Google Scholar).The climate adaptation strategies are organized into five broad categories(crop management,risk management,soil/land management,water management,and livestock management strategies).Evidence suggests that potential trade-offs may arise concerning added costs,additional labor requirements,and competition among objectives or available resources.The synergies,on the other hand,arise from implementing two or more adaptation strategies concurrently in respect of increased productivity,resilience,yield stability,sustainability,and environmental protection.Trade-offs and synergies may also differ among the various adaptation strategies with minimum/zero tillage,comparatively,presenting more tradeoffs.The development and promotion of low-cost adaptation strategies and complementary climate adaptation options that minimize the trade-offs and maximize the synergies are suggested.Skills and knowledge on proper implementation of climate change adaptation strategies are encouraged,especially at the local farm level.

Farmer's Adaptive Strategies on Land Competition between Societal Outcomes and Agroecosystem Conservation in the Purple-soiled Hilly Region,Southwestern China

The worldwide extension and intensification of farming during the last century has led to ecosystem degradation and caused a series of environmental problems.Conservation of ecosystem services in agricultural regions has been implemented by top-down government actions or initiated by resilience scientists in the developed countries,but little attention was paid in the developing countries,especially in some remote mountainous regions.The present paper presents a case study showing how local farmers obtained both maximal societal outcomes and agroecosystem conservation interests in the absence of distinct boundaries between agricultural and protected ecological areas in the densely populated purple-soiled hilly region of southwestern China.The local community(Yanting County) has developed a mosaic agricultural-forestry-fishery-stock breeding system with spatially targeted land uses,diverse agricultural productions and multiple ecological partnerships.It indicates that the local farmers have hereditarily perceived sound strategies on maximizing sustainable societal outcomes and optimizing tradeoffs among macro-market,state policy,new technological facility and ecological reinforcement.