To overcome the deficiency of traditional mathematical statistics methods,an adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm for regional FDI(foreign direct investment)prediction is proposed in this paper,and its validity is anal...To overcome the deficiency of traditional mathematical statistics methods,an adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm for regional FDI(foreign direct investment)prediction is proposed in this paper,and its validity is analyzed.Firstly,the characteristics of the FDI data in six provinces of Central China are generalized,and the mixture model’s constituent variables of the Lasso grey problem as well as the grey model are defined.Next,based on the influencing factors of regional FDI statistics(mean values of regional FDI and median values of regional FDI),an adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm for regional FDI was established.Then,an application test in Central China is taken as a case study to illustrate the feasibility of the adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm in regional FDI prediction.We also select RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)to demonstrate the convergence and the validity of the algorithm.Finally,we train this proposedal gorithm according to the regional FDI statistical data in six provinces in Central China from 2006 to 2018.We then use it to predict the regional FDI statistical data from 2019 to 2023 and show its changing tendency.The extended work for the adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm and its procedure to other regional economic fields is also discussed.展开更多
Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction me...Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.展开更多
Using Time-Varying AR (TVAR) model and adaptive notch filter is a new method for the non-stationary jammer suppression in Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS). The performance of TVAR model for Instantaneous Frequen...Using Time-Varying AR (TVAR) model and adaptive notch filter is a new method for the non-stationary jammer suppression in Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS). The performance of TVAR model for Instantaneous Frequency (IF) estimation will be affected by some factors such as basis functions. Focusing on this problem, the optimal basis function of TVAR model for the IF estimation of the LFM signal is obtained in this paper. Besides the depth and width of notching, the phase properties of notch filter affect the Signal-to-Interference plus-Noise Ratio (SINR) of correlation output to the narrowband jammer suppression in DSSS, in response to the problem the closed solution of correlation output SINR improvement has been derived when a single frequency jammer passes through direct IIR notch filter, and its performance has been compared with those of five coefficient FIR filters. Later, a novel method for LFM jammer suppression based on Fourier basis TVAR model and direct IIR notch filter is proposed. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
The machinery fault signal is a typical non-Gaussian and non-stationary process. The fault signal can be described by SaS distribution model because of the presence of impulses.Time-frequency distribution is a useful ...The machinery fault signal is a typical non-Gaussian and non-stationary process. The fault signal can be described by SaS distribution model because of the presence of impulses.Time-frequency distribution is a useful tool to extract helpful information of the machinery fault signal. Various fractional lower order(FLO) time-frequency distribution methods have been proposed based on fractional lower order statistics, which include fractional lower order short time Fourier transform(FLO-STFT), fractional lower order Wigner-Ville distributions(FLO-WVDs), fractional lower order Cohen class time-frequency distributions(FLO-CDs), fractional lower order adaptive kernel time-frequency distributions(FLO-AKDs) and adaptive fractional lower order time-frequency auto-regressive moving average(FLO-TFARMA) model time-frequency representation method.The methods and the exiting methods based on second order statistics in SaS distribution environments are compared, simulation results show that the new methods have better performances than the existing methods. The advantages and disadvantages of the improved time-frequency methods have been summarized.Last, the new methods are applied to analyze the outer race fault signals, the results illustrate their good performances.展开更多
The prediction of UT can be separated into two parts, i.e. the prediction of a definitivecomponent and that of a random component. In this paper, the first part is carried out withlinear fitting extrapolation and peri...The prediction of UT can be separated into two parts, i.e. the prediction of a definitivecomponent and that of a random component. In this paper, the first part is carried out withlinear fitting extrapolation and periodic fitting extrapolation of NEOS UT1-UTC series ofone-day interval with a span of two years, and the second part with an RLS recursive proce-dure of auto-adaptive AR modeling. The combination of the two predicted values gives asatisfying result that the prediction precision reaches 0″.0038 with a lead time of 60 days.展开更多
针对网络化控制系统(NCS)中的随机时变时延,采用自行开发的基于应用层的测试软件,按照IETF(The Internet Engi-neering Task Force)的RFC2544规范,进行了6个多月实际测量,获得了170余万个网络时延数据;通过对实验数据进行相关分析,建立...针对网络化控制系统(NCS)中的随机时变时延,采用自行开发的基于应用层的测试软件,按照IETF(The Internet Engi-neering Task Force)的RFC2544规范,进行了6个多月实际测量,获得了170余万个网络时延数据;通过对实验数据进行相关分析,建立了网络时延的自适应自回归(AR)模型;并用自适应最小均方差(LMS)算法对实测的网络时延进行了估计和预测,实验结果表明了算法的有效性。展开更多
基金This work was supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2019YFE0122600),author H.H,https://service.most.gov.cn/in part by the Project of Centre for Innovation Research in Social Governance of Changsha University of Science and Technology(No.2017ZXB07),author J.H,https://www.csust.edu.cn/mksxy/yjjd/shzlcxyjzx.htm+2 种基金in part by the Public Relations Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research Project of the Ministry of Education(No.17JZD022),author J.L,http://www.moe.gov.cn/in part by the Key Scientific Research Projects of Hunan Provincial Department of Education(No.19A015),author J.L,http://jyt.hunan.gov.cn/in part by the Hunan 13th five-year Education Planning Project(No.XJK19CGD011),author J.H,http://ghkt.hntky.com/.
文摘To overcome the deficiency of traditional mathematical statistics methods,an adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm for regional FDI(foreign direct investment)prediction is proposed in this paper,and its validity is analyzed.Firstly,the characteristics of the FDI data in six provinces of Central China are generalized,and the mixture model’s constituent variables of the Lasso grey problem as well as the grey model are defined.Next,based on the influencing factors of regional FDI statistics(mean values of regional FDI and median values of regional FDI),an adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm for regional FDI was established.Then,an application test in Central China is taken as a case study to illustrate the feasibility of the adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm in regional FDI prediction.We also select RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)to demonstrate the convergence and the validity of the algorithm.Finally,we train this proposedal gorithm according to the regional FDI statistical data in six provinces in Central China from 2006 to 2018.We then use it to predict the regional FDI statistical data from 2019 to 2023 and show its changing tendency.The extended work for the adaptive Lasso grey model algorithm and its procedure to other regional economic fields is also discussed.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12272211,12072181,12121002)。
文摘Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (F2010000442)
文摘Using Time-Varying AR (TVAR) model and adaptive notch filter is a new method for the non-stationary jammer suppression in Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS). The performance of TVAR model for Instantaneous Frequency (IF) estimation will be affected by some factors such as basis functions. Focusing on this problem, the optimal basis function of TVAR model for the IF estimation of the LFM signal is obtained in this paper. Besides the depth and width of notching, the phase properties of notch filter affect the Signal-to-Interference plus-Noise Ratio (SINR) of correlation output to the narrowband jammer suppression in DSSS, in response to the problem the closed solution of correlation output SINR improvement has been derived when a single frequency jammer passes through direct IIR notch filter, and its performance has been compared with those of five coefficient FIR filters. Later, a novel method for LFM jammer suppression based on Fourier basis TVAR model and direct IIR notch filter is proposed. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61261046,61362038)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province(20142BAB207006,20151BAB207013)+2 种基金the Science and Technology Project of Provincial Education Department of Jiangxi Province(GJJ14738,GJJ14739)the Research Foundation of Health Department of Jiangxi Province(20175561)the Science and Technology Project of Jiujiang University(2016KJ001,2016KJ002)
文摘The machinery fault signal is a typical non-Gaussian and non-stationary process. The fault signal can be described by SaS distribution model because of the presence of impulses.Time-frequency distribution is a useful tool to extract helpful information of the machinery fault signal. Various fractional lower order(FLO) time-frequency distribution methods have been proposed based on fractional lower order statistics, which include fractional lower order short time Fourier transform(FLO-STFT), fractional lower order Wigner-Ville distributions(FLO-WVDs), fractional lower order Cohen class time-frequency distributions(FLO-CDs), fractional lower order adaptive kernel time-frequency distributions(FLO-AKDs) and adaptive fractional lower order time-frequency auto-regressive moving average(FLO-TFARMA) model time-frequency representation method.The methods and the exiting methods based on second order statistics in SaS distribution environments are compared, simulation results show that the new methods have better performances than the existing methods. The advantages and disadvantages of the improved time-frequency methods have been summarized.Last, the new methods are applied to analyze the outer race fault signals, the results illustrate their good performances.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Secoeic Foundation of China.
文摘The prediction of UT can be separated into two parts, i.e. the prediction of a definitivecomponent and that of a random component. In this paper, the first part is carried out withlinear fitting extrapolation and periodic fitting extrapolation of NEOS UT1-UTC series ofone-day interval with a span of two years, and the second part with an RLS recursive proce-dure of auto-adaptive AR modeling. The combination of the two predicted values gives asatisfying result that the prediction precision reaches 0″.0038 with a lead time of 60 days.
基金国家自然科学基金(the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.60674057)
文摘针对网络化控制系统(NCS)中的随机时变时延,采用自行开发的基于应用层的测试软件,按照IETF(The Internet Engi-neering Task Force)的RFC2544规范,进行了6个多月实际测量,获得了170余万个网络时延数据;通过对实验数据进行相关分析,建立了网络时延的自适应自回归(AR)模型;并用自适应最小均方差(LMS)算法对实测的网络时延进行了估计和预测,实验结果表明了算法的有效性。