Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

Spatio-Temporal Agricultural Drought Quantification in a Rainfed Agriculture, Athi-Galana-Sabaki River Basin

This study employs a quantitative approach to comprehensively investigate the full propagation process of agricultural drought, focusing on pigeon peas (the most grown crop in the AGS Basin) planting seasonal variations. The study modelled seasonal variabilities in the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Agricultural Drought Index (SADI). To necessitate comparison, SADI and SPI were Normalized (from −1 to 1) as they had different ranges and hence could not be compared. From the seasonal indices, the pigeon peas planting season (July to September) was singled out as the most important season to study agricultural droughts. The planting season analysis selected all years with severe conditions (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2017 and 2022) for spatial analysis. Spatial analysis revealed that most areas in the upstream part of the Basin and Coastal region in the lowlands experienced severe to extreme agricultural droughts in highlighted drought years. The modelled agricultural drought results were validated using yield data from two stations in the Basin. The results show that the model performed well with a Pearson Coefficient of 0.87 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.29. This proactive approach aims to ensure food security, especially in scenarios where the Basin anticipates significantly reduced precipitation affecting water available for agriculture, enabling policymakers, water resource managers and agricultural sector stakeholders to equitably allocate resources and mitigate the effects of droughts in the most affected areas to significantly reduce the socioeconomic drought that is amplified by agricultural drought in rainfed agriculture river basins.

Evolving patterns of agricultural production space in China:A network-based approach

The agricultural production space,as where and how much each agricultural product grows,plays a vital role in meeting the increasing and diverse food demands.Previous studies on agricultural production patterns have predominantly centered on individual or specific crop types,using methods such as remote sensing or statistical metrological analysis.In this study,we characterize the agricultural production space(APS)by bipartite network connecting agricultural products and provinces,to reveal the relatedness between diverse agricultural products and the spatiotemporal characteristic of provincial production capabilities in China.The results show that core products are cereal,pork,melon,and pome fruit;meanwhile the milk,grape,and fiber crop show an upward trend in centrality,which is in line with diet structure changes in China over the past decades.The little changes in community components and structures of agricultural products and provinces reveal that agricultural production patterns in China are relatively stable.Additionally,identified provincial communities closely resemble China's agricultural natural zones.Furthermore,the observed growth in production capabilities in North and Northeast China implies their potential focus areas for future agricultural production.Despite the superior production capa-bilities of southern provinces,recent years have witnessed a notable decline,warranting special attentions.The findings provide a comprehensive perspective for understanding the complex relationship of agricultural prod-ucts'relatedness,production capabilities and production patterns,which serve as a reference for the agricultural spatial optimization and agricultural sustainable development.

Agricultural intensity for sustainable regional development:A case study in peri-urban areas of Karawang Regency,Indonesia

Peri-urban areas are playing an increasingly crucial role in the agricultural development and intensification in Indonesia.Peri-urban agriculture is highly vulnerable to change compared with urban and rural agriculture,due to its location in transitional areas.Indicators of peri-urban agricultural intensity can help guide regional development.In this study,we assessed the sustainability of peri-urban areas based on agricultural intensity in Karawang Regency,Indonesia.We developed a village-based index to assess the region’s agricultural intensity by rescaling the village agriculture index(VAI)and combining the local sustainability index(LSI)with factor analysis.Since the unit of analysis is the village,we modified the LSI to the village sustainability index(VSI).In addition,we also developed a logical matrix analysis to determine the level of agricultural sustainability(LoAS)of each village.The combined results of the three indices(VAI,VSI,and LoAS)generated information about agricultural sustainability.The results indicated that peri-urban villages with high agricultural intensity tended to exhibit low levels of social welfare,economic development,and disaster risk.Moreover,high agricultural intensity did not necessarily ensure the prosperity of the people.Instead,there was the economic disparity among the villages in the study area.Encouraging diversity of agricultural intensity seems to be more critical than promoting agricultural intensity itself.Overall,this study highlights the distinctive characteristics and dynamic of peri-urban areas.New approaches,variables,and information regarding the combination of agricultural intensity and sustainability need to be developed as valuable tools for regional planning.

Unveiling the impact and mechanism of digital technology on agricultural economic resilience

Enhancing the economic resilience of agriculture is essential for promoting sustainable and high-quality agricultural development.The emergence of digital technology has created new opportunities in this field.However,existing research predominantly focuses on traditional agricultural factors and technologies.Therefore,the impact of digital technology on agricultural economic resilience within the broader context of the“production-operation-industry”system in agriculture has not been comprehensively explored.To bridge this gap,this study analyzes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020.It employs the static Van Dorn’s law and a dynamic spatial panel model to examine how digital technology empowers agricultural resilience.The findings indicate a continuous strengthening of digital technology development in China,albeit with significant polarization and spatial imbalances.Moreover,the resilience of the agricultural economy undergoes notable fluctuations,initially narrowing and subsequently displaying an upward trend.Digital technology clearly plays a pivotal role in empowering resilience through agricultural scale operation,industrial transformation,and technological progress.Its impact,particularly on the promotion of resilience in the eastern region and non-grain-producing areas and on high-level agricultural economies,also shows regional and technological variations.

Thoughts on Pairing Assistance to Tibet for Promoting Agricultural High-quality Development in Southern Tibet from the Perspective of Agricultural Power

In the new era,there is an urgent need to further promote pairing assistance to Tibet,promote the simultaneous construction of a strong agriculture in Tibet and the China's Mainland,and compose a Chinese-style modernization.Southern Tibet,located in the southeastern part of the Tibet Autonomous Region,includes Shannan City and Nyingchi City,is a region assisted by four provincial partners including Hubei Province.This paper introduces the agricultural environment in southern Tibet,studies its agricultural characteristics,and analyzes the main issues of its pairing assistance.Taking forging the strong consciousness of the Chinese national community as the main line,the paper explores strategies for promoting agricultural high-quality development in southern Tibet through pairing assistance to Tibet from the perspective of agricultural power,and proposes some strategies,such as inheriting agricultural cultural heritage,promoting the upgrading of modern seed industry,enhancing the characteristic advantages of highland barley(naked barley)and animal husbandry industries,and developing edible fungi and cold water fish industries.

Demography and Socio-Economic Aspects on Irrigated Smallholder Agricultural Enterprises and Their Association with the Cultivation of Maize (Zea mays L.) as a Selected Field Crop

The purpose of this study is to correlate demography and socio-economic aspects at Irrigated Smallholder Agricultural Enterprises and their association with the Cultivation of Maize in order to determine its positive impacts at irrigated smallholders’ agricultural entrepreneurs’ household. Chi-square test was used as descriptive analysis method. The Fischer Exact tests were employed to test demography (gender, age, education, and income) in winter and summer production season of irrigated smallholder agricultural enterprises and their association with the cultivation of selected field crop (i.e. maize). The results show that gender results were not being statistically significant, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.149, p = 0.011, and φ = 0.05, p = 0.392 in summer. As far as age is concern, it appears to be a statistically significant association between cultivating maize and age in winter, φ = 0.046, p = 0.730 in winter and φ = 0.172, p = 0.013. Education winter result not being statistically significant, the effect size showed a weak association, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.112, p = 0.305 and φ = 0.035, p = 0.948 in summer. Income result not being statistically significant, as measured by the Phi measure of effect size, φ = 0.049, p = 0.399 and φ = 0.081, p = 0.166 in summer. In conclusion, the study shows that the development of best management practices must be based on a comprehensive analysis of the livelihoods and irrigated smallholder agricultural enterprise farming styles of participating irrigated smallholder agricultural entrepreneurs.

An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.Asian Agricultural Research is devoted to the study of Economic Management,Land Science,Resource and Environment,Agronomy and Horticulture,Animal Science,Biotechnology,Food Science,and Agro-product Processing,Agricultural Engineering,Agricultural Information Science,Rural Tourism,Agricultural Education,and Agricultural History.

Maintaining Resilience of Agricultural Supply Chain: International Cooperation is a Must

“Inf luenced by the slow recover y of the globa l economy,the continual impact of El Niño,growing local conflicts,the prevalence of trade protectionism and other factors,this year,the global supply and demand for agricultural products and trade is under pressure,and the world’s food security has been a serious challenge.Therefore,it is of great and far-reaching significance for all countries in the world to further develop international cooperation in agriculture from a strategic height,in order to maintain the resilience of the international supply chain of agriculture,and to promote mutual benefits and the common development of all parties.”Yu Jianlong,Vice President of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade(CCPIT)and Vice President of the China Chamber of International Commerce(CCIC),said at the 2024 China Agricultural Conference for International Economic and Trade Cooperation.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.

Analysis of the Digital Skill Gap of Agricultural Extension Personnel in South-East, Nigeria

The study analysed the digital skill gap of agricultural extension personnel on the use of digital technologies for extension services delivery in South-East, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of agricultural extension personnel in South-East Nigeria and identify the digital skill gaps among agricultural extension personnel in the area of study. Purposive sampling technique was used to select 364 Agricultural Extension personnel for the study. Data were collected through the use of structured questionnaire and were analysed using simple descriptive statistical tools such as percentages, mean score, and standard deviation. Findings indicated that most of the personnel were male (57.8%), within the age bracket of 38 - 47 years (62.9%), had B.Sc./HND as their highest educational qualification (74.7%), married (86.3%), and had a household size of 6 - 10 Persons (57.7%). It was further revealed that the majority (70.1%) were members of professional organization, earned a monthly income of N50,001.00 - N100,000.00 (65.7%), had a work experience of 11 - 15 years (51.1%), and owned a smartphone/ iPad/laptop (91.5%). Findings further indicated that they had moderate skill gap in Basic Computer skills (Mean = 4.32), and digital communication and collaboration skills (Mean = 4.26). Findings also showed that they had a high skill gap in digital technical skills (Mean = 2.46), digital data analysis skills (Mean = 2.09), digital content creation skills (Mean = 2.43), digital ethical skills (Mean = 2.79), multimedia production skills (Mean = 2.81), and video library management skills (Mean = 2.39). The study concluded that though there exists a high digital skill gap among agricultural extension personnel in South-East, Nigeria, their socioeconomic characteristics are capable of supporting the implementation of digital extension services in the area. The study recommended that the management of Agricultural Development Programs in South-East, Nigeria, should provide digital training for extension personnel to close the digital skill gap that currently exists among the personnel.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.Asian Agricultural Research is devoted to the study of Economic Management,Land Science,Resource and Environment,Agronomy and Horticulture,Animal Science,Biotechnology,Food Science,and Agro-product Processing,Agricultural Engineering,Agricultural Information Science,Rural Tourism,Agricultural Education,and Agricultural History.

Mixed Integer Robust Programming Model for Multimodal Fresh Agricultural Products Terminal Distribution Network Design

The low efficiency and high cost of fresh agricultural product terminal distribution directly restrict the operation of the entire supply network.To reduce costs and optimize the distribution network,we construct a mixed integer programmingmodel that comprehensively considers tominimize fixed,transportation,fresh-keeping,time,carbon emissions,and performance incentive costs.We analyzed the performance of traditional rider distribution and robot distribution modes in detail.In addition,the uncertainty of the actual market demand poses a huge threat to the stability of the terminal distribution network.In order to resist uncertain interference,we further extend the model to a robust counterpart form.The results of the simulation show that the instability of random parameters will lead to an increase in the cost.Compared with the traditional rider distribution mode,the robot distribution mode can save 12.7%on logistics costs,and the distribution efficiency is higher.Our research can provide support for the design of planning schemes for transportation enterprise managers.

Professional Cognitive Education Model for Agricultural Water Conservancy Engineering under the Background of New Agricultural Science

The construction of new agricultural science requires the use of modern scientific and technological means to transform and enhance current agricultural related majors.The agricultural water conservancy engineering major,with its inherent disciplinary advantages,plays an indispensable and important role in the construction of new agricultural science.In recent years,the lack of professional cognitive education has gradually become a significant problem in the training of talents in agricultural water conservancy engineering.Therefore,this paper deeply analyzes the problems and reasons faced by professional cognitive education,and proposes specific educational strategies for several key aspects such as enrollment promotion,freshman enrollment education,construction of teacher team,combination of scientific research and teaching,and strengthening professional cognition through competition activities.It aims to provide reference for improving the quality of professional cognitive education and exploring effective ways.

The Extreme Machine Learning Actuarial Intelligent Agricultural Insurance Based Automated Underwriting Model

The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.

Comparative Study of the Socioeconomic Characteristics and Digital Literacy Level of Agricultural Extension Personnel in Imo and Ebonyi States, South-East, Nigeria

The study comparatively analysed the socioeconomic characteristics and digital literacy level of Agricultural Extension personnel (AEP) in Ebonyi and Imo States, South-East, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of agricultural extension personnel in Ebonyi and Imo States, and to ascertain the digital literacy level of AEP in the studied states. Purposive sampling technique was used to select 312 Agricultural Extension personnel (132 from Ebonyi State Agricultural Development Program and 180 from Imo State Agricultural Development Program) for the study. Data were collected through the use of validated and structured questionnaire, and administered through the help of well-trained enumerators. Data were analysed using simple descriptive statistical tools such as percentages mean score, standard deviation and weighted mean. Findings indicated that they were more male in the both States (55.3% and 57.8%) for Ebonyi and Imo State respectively and that the average age of AEP in Ebonyi and Imo States were 44.7 years and 49.2 years respectively. It was further revealed that the majority (77.3% and 82.8%) had B.Sc./HND as their highest academic qualifications, belonged to professional organisations (62.1% and 75%), and were earning an average monthly income of N58,798 and N62,648 for Ebonyi and Imo State respectively. Also, it was revealed that their mean years of service were 12.4 years and 13.4 years for Ebonyi and Imo State respectively. Almost all of them (87.9% and 95.0%) own a smartphone, had access to the internet (80.3% and 90.0%), but do not own a laptop/ipad (82.6% and 72.8%) for Ebon-yi and Imo State respectively. Results further revealed that Agricultural extension personnel in both Ebonyi and Imo State respectively had low digital literacy level ( = 2.41 and 2.32). The study concluded that AEP in Ebonyi and Imo State respectively had similar socioeconomic characteristics and low level of digital literacy. The study recommended that the management of ADPs in both Ebonyi and Imo State should ensure the training of AEP in digital skills to enhance their digital literacy level to enable them use digital technologies in their work.

How to promote cooperative innovation in environmentally friendly technology:a case of agricultural biotechnology in China

This study explored the factors influencing cooperative innovation in environmentally friendly agricultural biotechnology in China.First,we constructed an evolutionary game model comprising the factors of net income of cooperative innovation,net income of independent innovation,market constraints,and government subsidies.Using MATLAB simulation,we assigned different values to the aforementioned variables to explore the evolutionary trend of innovators’willingness to cooperate.Results showed that when the values of net income of cooperative innovation,net income of independent innovation,market constraints,and government subsidies exceeded the threshold,innovators’willingness to cooperate was significantly enhanced.Furthermore,the proportion of innovators who cooperated with others gradually increased to 100%;otherwise,it gradually decreased to 0%.Comparing the simulation curve with the real evolution curve of cooperative innovation in agricultural biotechnology in China,we found that the gradual decline in the willingness to cooperate could be due to insufficient subsidies for cooperative innovation,low income from cooperative innovation,weak profitability of innovators,and weak market constraints.

Innovation Analysis of Rural Agricultural Economic Management Model in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

[Objectives]To explore innovative strategies for rural agricultural economic development in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative.[Methods]This research adopts the method of literature review and field research,systematically combs the research results related to the Belt and Road Initiative and rural agricultural economic management,and deeply understands the actual situation of rural agricultural economic management.[Results]The research shows that in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative,the rural agricultural economy is facing new development opportunities and challenges,but there are also some problems.In the new period,we should accelerate the innovative development of rural agricultural economy by promoting market-oriented reform,strengthening scientific and technological innovation,optimizing the industrial structure,deepening international cooperation and other measures.The Belt and Road Initiative provides an important opportunity for the innovation of rural agricultural economic management.Rural agricultural economic management should be actively integrated into the Belt and Road construction to improve the level of rural agricultural economic management.[Conclusions]This study provides useful exploration and reference for the innovation of rural agricultural economic management models,which helps to promote the healthy development of rural agricultural economy and achieve the goal of rural revitalization.