Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in China and Its Adaptation Countermeasures

Global climate warming has discernable impacts on various natural systems and biological systems. As the most fragile ecosystem,agriculture is subjected to the most direct impacts from climate change. Of these impacts,the first one is the change in agricultural climate resources,which directly affects agricultural cultivation structure and crop variety distribution and finally results in the change in crop yield. Here,we review the advances in the impacts of climate change on crop yield,agricultural climate resources and China＇s agricultural cropping system and crop variety distribution pattern,and prospect the countermeasures for agricultural production in order to meet the future climate change,and several issues must be given high priority.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Haidong Agricultural Region in Qinghai and Its Adaptive Countermeasures

[Objective] The aim was to study climate changes and its effects on agriculture in Haidong agricultural region.[Method] Based on meteorology and agricultural observation data in Haidong agricultural region from 1961 to 2009,the characteristics of climate change and its effects on agriculture were analyzed,and the possible effects of future climate change on Haidong agriculture were predicted according to the future climate scenarios provided by down-scaling climate model.[Result] Annual mean temperature in Haidong agricultural region during 1961-2009 showed obvious increase trend,with the rising rate of 0.37 ℃/10 a;annual mean precipitation and annual total sunshine duration went down slightly,with the climatic tendency of 3.70 mm/10 a and-27.55 h/10 a,respectively;climate extreme event occurred less frequently but became severer in recent 49 years.In future 100 years,temperature in Haidong agricultural region would go up significantly,with the slight increase of rainfall,and climate changes would affect agricultural production environment,arrangement,structure and productivity,namely increasing yield fluctuation of agricultural production,cost and investment and changing arrangement and structure.In order to adapt climate change,it was necessary to adjust agricultural structure,strengthen management,improve agricultural infrastructure,adopt new technology,increase the resistance ability of agricultural production to climate change actively and designedly,so as to improve adaptability,furthest reduce loss and realize potential benefit.[Conclusion] Our study could provide references for the decision of government and agricultural sector.

Morphological Change of Starch Grain Based on Simulated Experiment and its Significance of Agricultural Archaeology——Taking Wheat as an Example

[Objective] The aim was to research and identify starch grain microfossil found in archaeological sites in China, and to find appropriate procedures for the starch grain analysis experiment.[Method] Wheat starch grain size distribution was analyzed, and some simulated experiments were carried out, like mortar grinding, ultrasonic treatment, hydrochloric acid and hydrogen peroxide immersion, drying treatment, and so on. [Result] The mean size of wheat starch grains had increased in the growth process. Mortar grinding would make wheat starch grains larger than untreated sample. Long time of ultrasonic treatment can also make the starch grain size larger. 10% HCl and 6% H2O2 would have little effects on morphological feature of wheat starch grains. Low temperature heating did not cause starch grains to be gelatinized. [Conclusion] These experiment results can improve the accuracy of starch grain microfossil identification in the archaeological site. Starch grain analysis may be a utility and effective analytical tool in studying the origin of agriculture and the dispersal of crops in China.

The Climate Change in Fushun City and Its Effect on Agricultural Production in Recent 48 Years

Based on the meteorological data in Fushun region from 1961 to 2008,the characteristics of climate change in Fushun City were concluded through statistical analysis.The results showed that the temperature increased,while there was a decrease in precipitation and sunlight.Moreover,climate change had both positive and negative influences on agricultural production and crop growth,so we should take effective measures to make use of effective accumulated temperature.

Change Characteristics of Climate and Main Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Shiyang River Basin

Based on 35 a meteorological data and main crops planting data in Shiyang River basin meteorological station,the agricultural climate change,agricultural production,hydrology change and the influences on the crops layout,planting in the basin were discussed.The results showed that the linear inclined rates of ≥0 ℃,10 ℃ accumulated temperature increase in the north-central part were bigger than in the south,and the heat resources increased evidently.The annual precipitation increased in the linear inclined rate which was 4.719 mm/10 a,and the annual runoff decreased in 0.274×109 m3/10 a velocity.The climate productivity increased in 134.62 kg/(hm2·10 a) velocity.In late spring and early summer,the regional drought increased evidently,and the frostless period prolonged.The sand storm decreased evidently.The gale in the south increased and decreased in the north-central part.The agricultural climate change made that the spring wheat planting zone advanced to the high-altitude area.The seeding date advanced,and the growth period shortened.It didn't favor for the yield formation.However,it was favorable to improve the yield and quality of thermophilous crops such as the corn,cotton and wine grape and so on.

Irrigated Agriculture Facing the Challenge of Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies for Farmers in the Irrigated Perimeters of Môle Saint-Nicolas, Haiti

Môle Saint-Nicolas, like all other communes in the Republic of Haiti, faces increasing climate variability, impacting agricultural production and water resources. Consequently, there is a pressing need for adaptation to these climatic changes. This research aims to showcase the adaptation strategies deployed by farmers to cope with the increasing climate variability. Surveys were conducted through group and individual discussions with a randomly selected cohort of 150 farmers. Two types of analysis were performed: quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative data analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The findings reveal that farmers have perceived changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, wind, and their environment. These changes manifest as irregular rainfall, higher temperatures, prolonged drought periods, violent winds accompanied by rain, premature cessation of rains, and reduced flow from water sources. In response, the most common adaptation strategies adopted include selecting new cultivars, early-maturing varieties, crop rotation and diversification, canal dredging, new soil preparation methods, upstream water source protection, and micro-watershed management. The significance of this research lies in its contribution to enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacities by alerting stakeholders in the irrigated perimeters about the consequences of climate change, thereby incorporating the real needs of farmers in future projects.

Coping with the Impact of Climate Change: A Dive into Precision Agriculture in the United States

With the continued increase in the number of people that are food insecure globally, which could be increasing because of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, leading to reduction in international agribusinesses, coupled with drastic climate change exacerbating the problem of food insecurity, there is a constant need to come up with innovative approaches to solve this global issue. In this article, we articulated how precision agriculture can be a tool for ensuring food security in the United States. This study aims to reiterate the significance of precision agriculture in solving global food insecurity.

How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

Groundwater quality and land use change in a typical karst agricultural region:a case study of Xiaojiang watershed,Yunnan

Taking the typical karst agricultural region, Xiaojiang watershed in Luxi of Yurman Province as a research unit, utilizing the groundwater quality data in 1982 and 2004, the aerial photos in 1982 and TM images in 2004, supported by the GIS, we probe into the law and the reason of its space-time change of the groundwater quality over the past 22 years in the paper. The results show： （1） There were obvious temporal and spatial changes of groundwater quality during the past 22 years. （2） Concentrations of NH4^＋, SO4^2- , NO3, NO2^-, Cl^- and the pH value, total hardness, total alkalinity increased significantly, in which NH4^2-, NO3, and NO2^- of groundwater exceeded the drinking water standards as a result of non-point pollution caused by the expansion of cultivated land and mass use of the fertilizer and pesticide. （3） Oppositely, Ca^2＋ and HCO3^- showed an obvious decline trend due to forest reduction and degradation and stony desertification. Meantime, there was a dynamic relation between the groundwater quality change and the land use change.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model （CWSM） is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios （A1B, A2 and B2）. The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops＇ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.

Review on the Impact of Climate Change on Great Lakes Region’s Agriculture and Water Resources

This study investigates the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the Midwest region of the United States, particularly the rising temperatures and precipitation brought about by hot weather activities and technological advances since the 19th century. From 1900 to 2010, temperatures in the Midwest rose by an average of 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would also lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Precipitation is also expected to increase due to increased storm activity and changes in regional weather patterns. This paper explores the impact of these changes on urban and agricultural areas. In urban areas such as the city of Chicago, runoff from the increasing impervious surface areas poses challenges to the drainage system, and agriculture areas are challenged by soil erosion, nutrient loss, and fewer planting days due to excessive rainfall. Sustainable solutions such as no-till agriculture and the creation of grassland zones are discussed. Using historical data, recent climate studies and projections, the paper Outlines ways to enhance the Midwest’s ecology and resilience to climate change.

Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data （presents farmers＇ personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change） associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data （presents real-world climate change） were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County （1980s-2010s）, Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature （0.6＆#176;C per decade） and decreased annual precipitation （46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets） were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was conifrmed by 70%of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change：Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a signiifcant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice：More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers＇ agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region.

Regional agricultural landscape pattern changes along the Yellow River in Henan Province from 1987 to 2002

Agricultural landscape along the riparian zones is designated as important landscape components for partly controlling water quality, biodiversity, as well as for their aesthetic role in landscapes. Therefore, the change of agricultural landscape along the riparian zones is at the top of the agenda for many policy makers and landscape planners. As a basis for conservation management, sufficient information about landscape structure should be provided. In the present study, we reconstructed the former landscape structure and elucidated the changes in landscape patterns during a period of about 15 years. Two sets of maps were used： a landsat-5 TM image （1987） and landsat-7 ETM image （2002）. The frequency index, landscape diversity index and landscape fragmentation index were calculated for analyses. The results showed that： （1） the areas of the irrigated land, river, forest and beach landscape classes presented a decreasing trend while the areas of landscape classes of pool, paddy fields, dry land and construction land increased. （2） Disturbed by human activity, landscape diversity index increased but landscape fragmentation index decreased. In short, Human activities have had important influences on agricultural landscape of the riparian zones along the Yellow River in Henan Province.

Managing Climate Change Risk in China's Agricultural Sector: The Potential for an Integrated Risk Management Framework

Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain （NCP）, where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration （ET） has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model （GCM） ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus （Precipitation-ET） about 4%-24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat （3.0%-15.9%） in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good.

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the US Agricultural Exports

Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modifications in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes significant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential.

Comparison and Analysis of Agricultural and Forest Land Changes in Typical Agricultural Regions of Northern Mid-latitudes

The northeastern China, the United States, and the western Europe are important agricultural regions both on the global and regional scales. The westem Europe has a longer history of agricultural land development than the eastem United States. These two regions have changed from the deforestation and reclamation phase in the past to the current land abandonment and reforestation phase. Compared with the two regions, large-scale land exploitation has only been practiced in the northeastern China during the last century. After a short high-intensity deforestation and reclamation period, agricultural and forest lands are basically in a dynamic steady state. By comparing domestic and international agro-forestry development and considering the ecological environment and socio-economic bene- fits that can be derived from agro-forestry, this paper suggests that large area of reforestation would be inevitable in future though per- sistent and large agricultural demand in coming decades even more. And local reforestation at slope farmland with ecological vulner- ability should be imperative at present to avoid severer damage. At the same time, from the perspective of Land Change Science, the results demonstrate that the research on land use change in the agro-forestry ecotone is typical and critical, particularly those dealing with the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and the simulation of climate, hydrology, and other environmental effects.

Changes in Agricultural Biodiversity: Implications for Sustainable Livelihood in the Himalaya

Himalayan mountain system is distinguished globally for a rich biodiversity and for its role in regulating the climate of the South Asia. Traditional crop-livestock mixed farming in the Himalaya is highly dependent on forests for fodder and manure prepared from forest leaf litter and livestock excreta. Apart from sustaining farm production, forests provide a variety of other tangible and intangible benefits, which are critical for sustainable livelihood of not only 115 million mountain people, but also many more people living in the adjoining plains. Extension of agricultural land- use coupled with replacement of traditional staple food crops by cash crops and of multipurpose agroforestry trees by fruit trees are widespread changes. Cultivation of Fagopyrum esculentum, Fagopyrum tataricum, Panicum miliaceum, Setaria italica and Pisum arvense has been almost abandoned. Increasing stress on cash crops is driven by a socio-cultural change from subsistence to market economy facilitated by improvement in accessibility andsupplyofstaplefoodgrainsatsubsidizedpriceby the government. Farmers have gained substantial economic benefits from cash crops. However, loss of agrobiodiversity implies more risks to local livelihood in the events of downfall in market price/demand of cashcrops,terminationofsupplyofstaplefoodgrains at subsidized price, pest outbreaks in a cash crop dominated homogeneous landscape and abnormal climate years. Indigenous innovations enabling improvement in farm economy by conserving and/enhancing agrobiodiversity do exist, but are highly localized. The changes in agrobiodiversity are such that soil loss and run-off from the croplands have dramatically increased together with increase in local pressure on forests. As farm productivity is maintained with forest-based inputs, continued depletion of forest resources will result in poor economic returns from agriculture to local people, apart from loss of global benefits from Himalayan forests. Interventions including improvement in traditionalmanureandmanagementofon-farm trees, participatorydevelopmentofagroforestryindegraded forestlandsandpoliciesfavoringeconomicbenefitsto local people from non-timber forest products could reduce the risks of decline in agricultural biodiversity and associated threats to livelihoods and Himalayan ecosystems.