The Growth Path of Agricultural Labor Productivity in Major Grain Producing Areas

The growth of agricultural labor productivity in major grain producing areas arises from the increase in production factors or improvement of efficiency,and is related to the sustainability of agricultural economic growth and national food security. We study the growth path of agricultural labor productivity in 13 major grain producing areas of China,and the analysis results show that from the relative endowments of land and labor in major grain producing areas,the growth rate of the output value per unit of labor is higher than that of the productivity per unit of land; in essence,this growth path of increasing the output value relying on increasing the production factor inputs is the reduction of labor,and the reduction of agricultural labor has a great elasticity of impact on the total value of agricultural production. In the case of stable future number of agricultural labor in China,the growth of agricultural labor productivity will be impossible to rely more on the increase in agricultural production factor inputs,and the growth path of agricultural economy still has to rely on the improvement of land productivity and take the efficiency-based path.

Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analysis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Result] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agricultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping index and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mechanization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.

Is the feminization of labor harmful to agricultural production? The decision-making and production control perspective

Even today,academics continue to debate the effect of feminization of agricultural labor force on agricultural output.By considering the dimensions of participation in decision-making and production,this study divides the various agricultural production models into three types:(i)the traditional model of decisions made either jointly by men and women or by men alone while both genders participate in production,(ii)complete feminization of agricultural decision-making and the production labor force,and(iii)feminization of the agricultural production labor force only.This study investigates the effects of combining or separating decision-making and production in regard to agricultural development in the context of feminization of the agricultural labor force.Using follow-up data collected from 2004–2008 by the Ministry of Agriculture of China,we built a comprehensive panel data model to test our hypotheses.Our research shows that in comparison to traditional agricultural households and fully feminized agricultural labor forces,partially feminized production resulted in lower grain yield and technological advancement.The feminization of agricultural labor does not necessarily have a negative impact on agricultural output,especially since heavy manual labor is being increasingly replaced by agricultural machinery and outsourcing of tasks.The degree of feminization of the decision-making and production processes should be an important consideration when evaluating the purported negative effects of the feminization of agricultural labor.

Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products——A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.

The Estimation Methods for Agricultural Surplus Labor Based on Stochastic Frontier Production Function

The existing calculation methods for the number of agricultural surplus labor have a common flaw,that is,they can not reflect the impact of technical efficiency changes in agricultural production on the surplus labor. Based on the basic principle of stochastic frontier production function,this paper calculates the agricultural production technical efficiency of various provinces,and selects the province with the highest technical efficiency to assume that its agricultural labor is fully utilized,and there is no agricultural surplus labor. With the ratio of agricultural labor number to agricultural output value in this province as a reference,this paper calculates the number of agricultural surplus labor in other provinces. This calculation method makes up for the shortcomings of the existing calculation methods; it reflects the relationship between the number of agricultural surplus labor and production technical efficiency.

Changes of the Scale and Structure of Agricultural Laborer and Their Impacts on Food Production——Empirical study on YinshanPo Village, Suizhou City

On the strength of expounding the general situation of study area and the status quo of agricultural laborers in China, the changes of the scale and structure of agricultural laborer from 1985 to 2009 are analyzed by relying on the survey from farmers and statistical data from the government. The causes of these changes are analyzed from the aspects of rural farmland policy,birth-control policy, farmland marginalization and industrialization. Based on the study on the causes, the impacts of the changes on food production are analyzed from operation scale of household, the grain cropping area, the multi-cropping index and land productivity. The results show that the quality of agricultural laborers is decreasing form 1985 to 2009, which is characterized by the lack of middle-aged agricultural laborers and the aging of agricultural laborers. The causes of the changes include farmland policy, birth-control policy, farmland marginalization and urbanization. The shrinkage of agricultural laborers has grave impact on the multiple-cropping index. In addition, the land productivity is comprehensively affected by the scale and structure of agricultural laborers.

Current Situations and Problems of Logistics for Guangxi Fresh Agricultural Products in the New Period and Recommendations

In recent years,Guangxi realized consecutive bumper harvests in fresh agricultural products,leading increase of logistics demand;logistics infrastructure begins to take shape,and logistics of fresh agricultural products takes on diversified development form with wholesale market as main form. However,traditional fresh agricultural products are not selling well and it lacks construction of supply chain; the construction of logistics information system for fresh agricultural products lags behind; organizational level of production and operation of fresh agricultural products is low. Through analyzing current situations and existing problems of logistics of Guangxi fresh agricultural products in the new period( 21 st century),this paper came up with recommendations for developing logistics of fresh agricultural products of Guangxi. Government should increase policy and financial support,build and manage supply chain of fresh agricultural products,accelerate construction of logistics information system for agricultural products,and improve organizational level of logistics of fresh agricultural products,to ensure healthy development of logistics of fresh agricultural products in Guangxi.

Optimal Scheme Selection of Agricultural Production Structure Adjustment——Based on DEA Model; Punjab(Pakistan)

This paper used the modern evaluation method of DEA （Data Envelopment Analysis） to assess the comparative efficiency and then on the basis of this among multiple schemes chose the optimal scheme of agricultural production structure adjustment. Based on the results of DEA model, we dissected scale advantages of each discretionary scheme or plan. We examined scale advantages of each discretionary scheme, tested profoundly a definitive purpose behind not-DEA efficient, which elucidated the system and methodology to enhance these discretionary plans. At the end, another method had been proposed to rank and select the optimal scheme. The research was important to guide the practice if the modification of agricultural production industrial structure was carded on.

Designing and Realization of Database Platform of County Agricultural Production Technology in Yunnan Province

According to the objective reality in Yunnan Province,such as great difference of weather,a great proportion of minorities,technological backwardness of agricultural production,low conversion rate of research accomplishments,and a limited number of agricultural technical personnel,ASP.NET technique and SQL Server 2005 database technique are adopted.Database platform of county agricultural production technology in Yunnan Province is established by using B/S structure.This platform includes presentation layer,application layer,and data layer,involving regional information,technology column information,technology classification information,technology content and other databases.It has six functional modules,namely information browse,system management,regional maintenance,technical section maintenance,category maintenance and technical information release,integrating crop cultivation,livestock breeding,economic forest management,plant protection,agricultural products processing,agricultural machinery use and other agricultural technical information.This platform can exchange information dynamically with the client,perform the query request from users,and send the result to users.This database platform has friendly interface,profuse information,high pertinency and so on,which offers rich and reliable information resources to farmers,agricultural technical personnel,and government.At present,this platform has been popularized in some areas of Yunnan Province and has obtained good results.

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Products Supply-Chain Finance Based on D-S Theory

Agricultural products supply-chain finance, as one of the solutions to the issue of “capital problems” of agriculture, countryside and farmers, has proposed a kind of characteristics model to assess the risk of agricultural production, processing and marketing, which can improve the issue of farmers and enterprises lacking of funds. This model is proposed on the basis of uncertain information processing method of D-S theory and its data combination rules, combined with the “discount rate” correction model, and it includes a risk assessment index system of agricultural products supply-chain finance, fully considering the five aspects of production, processing, marketing, cooperation of supply chain and collateral. At last, a taro supply chain is taken for example. And the risk assessment of its supply-chain finance based on this model has been discussed in detail. And the result has proved that the model and its algorithm are practical and feasible.

Increasing China's Agricultural Labor Productivity: Comparison and Policy Implications from Major Agrarian Countries

China's low agricultural labor productivity has become the key weakness of its agricultural competitive- ness and sustainable development,and strategies for improving China's agricultural labor productivity lack clear and consistent theory and empirical support.To address this issue,the current study uses the methods of convergence index,correlation coefficient,and nonparametric test,to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural labor productivity among 32 major agrarian countries during 1961-2013.This analysis shows that the development gap among countries has been narrowing.The USA takes the leading position among all the countries, while some countries with scarce land like Japan have succeeded in achieving transcendence,and other countries like India have experienced relatively slow speed.The agricultural labor productivity is significantly driven by agricultural labor surplus,agricultural product processing,and agricultural industrial structure.The effects of land resource endowment,agricultural mechanization,and biochemical inputs have been declining and in some cases are no longer even significant.It is therefore necessary to shift attention to marketization,diversification,and high quality,instead of the former focus on agricultural intensification,concentration and large-scale operations,and this shift is probably more closely aligned with current practices.There are more people and less land in China,and the agricultural labor force in China still accounts for nearly 30% of the total population.Considering these national conditions,it is very important to simultaneously improve the efficiency of agricultural production of small farmers and promote the successful urbanization of the agricultural labor force.In the medium and long term,it is imperative to improve the competitiveness of Chinese agriculture by adopting related policy arrangements such as induced agricultural technological innovation,production factor substitution,and multifunctional agriculture development.

乡村劳动力老龄化对农业生产的影响分析——基于CiteSpace知识图谱

该文利用CiteSpace可视化文献分析工具对2001—2024年中国知网(CNKI)数据库收录的有关乡村劳动力老龄化对农业生产影响研究的498篇有效文献进行分析,绘制出核心作者群、研究机构和研究热点的知识结构图谱。结果显示,自2001年以来国内有关乡村劳动力老龄化对农业生产的影响研究文献呈现波动增加态势,具有明显的阶段性;同一单位或者地区的作者和研究结构内部交流合作交流较多,跨地区、跨单位的交流合作较少,高产作者群尚未形成;老龄化、土地流转、农业生产、技术效率、乡村振兴和农业经济是乡村劳动力老龄化对农业生产影响研究领域的前沿热点。最后作出总结并提出对未来的展望。

基于B/S架构的农产品溯源安全管理系统设计

阐述了以二维码为载体,以JAVA为基础开发平台、SQL Server 2008为后台数据库,采用基于B/S的SSH三层架构体系构建农产品溯源安全管理系统的总体设计、系统功能模块设计及其实现与应用。

基于Benford-SVR的数据异常检验模型构建及其应用

当前数据数量剧增的同时,大量异常数据的存在降低了数据质量,数据分析工作面临着数据丰富而信息贫乏的困境,寻找有效的数据异常检验模型,成为数据科学研究的重要内容。本研究以农业生产数据为对象,融合应用Benford定律与SVR模型的技术优势,构建Benford-SVR异常数据检验模型,并以河北省7个地市131个县为例进行实证分析。结果表明,沧州、邢台、邯郸的数据集质量较好,保定、石家庄、唐山、张家口数据集质量较差,并从中有效挖掘出异常较大的数据点。本研究结果为农业数据应用与信息提取提供了参考,Benford-SVR模型可以作为数据质量检验中精准挖掘异常点的有效工具。

种粮大户为何难以形成规模效益——以安徽繁昌S村为例

关于粮食作物的规模种植,一些人依据常识认为机械替代劳动后必然带来产量提高和成本降低,仿佛规模种植一定可以获得规模效益。但安徽繁昌S村7个种粮大户却没能如愿获得规模效益,反而普遍陷入经营困境。他们的困境是源于自身经营策略的失败,还是本身陷入了"规模效益"的陷阱。简单的理论推演不能替代复杂的现实逻辑,需要从农业经营本身的特点来重新认识粮食作物的规模种植及其效益。

农地确权与农村劳动力就业选择--基于CLDS数据的实证分析

产权理论揭示出产权明晰是资源有效配置的先决条件。针对当前我国仍普遍存在的小农经济现实背景,利用2016年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)微观数据,系统考察农地确权对农村劳动力就业选择的影响。研究发现,农地确权显著增加了农村劳动力农业就业的概率及家庭从事农业生产的人数,农业投资与农地流入是重要的影响机制。在克服农地确权内生性及选择性偏误问题后,文中结论依然成立。进一步地,基于不同农地产权实践环境的异质性讨论得出,所在村庄发生过农地调整、进行土壤改造、具有较高农地资源禀赋均会强化农地确权对农村劳动力农业就业的促进作用,而所在村庄为大中城市郊区则会削弱农地确权的作用效果。

基于改进D-S证据理论的生鲜电子商务信任模型研究

在生鲜电子商务的发展中,消费者信任度受到信息不透明、物流水平不到位、质量安全等原因的限制,这是导致消费者对生鲜电子商务交易意愿薄弱的重要原因.本文构建生鲜电子商务信任模型,用以测度生鲜电商中的消费者信任度及其变化.一方面,根据目前国内生鲜电子商务以特产为主的特点,考虑产品特性、质量认证等指标,构建评价指标体系,评价了消费者的直接信任;另一方面,在推荐信任中运用改进D-S证据理论,在证据可信度中综合考虑交易频繁度和交易相似度,使得推荐信任更加客观有效.

Improved estimation model and empirical analysis of relationship between agricultural mechanization level and labor demand

The research on the relationship between mechanization level in planting industry and labor demand was carried out based on the present literatures.The former estimation model of labor demand in planting industry was established without analyzing the effects of planting structure on labor demand in planting industry.The purpose of the research is to develop and perfect the theory of estimating both labor demand and rural surplus labor in planting industry,then to provide some theoretical references for scientific estimation.The model established in this research can be used to calculate not only the amount of current labor demand,but also the demand in the various moment of future according to forecasted mechanization level and cultivated areas.Furthermore,it was explored how to obtain the indexes of cultivated areas,mechanization level and the average cultivated area that each labor can burden when the mechanization level is 0 and 100%.According to statistics principle,the methods of inspection to eliminate abnormal data and data processing were given in order to make the data more credible.Finally,an example was presented for demonstration purposes.

基于S-O-R理论的绿色农产品消费意愿影响因素研究

基于S-O-R理论,构建消费者绿色农产品消费意愿影响机制模型,探讨内部因素(健康意识、面子观)与外部因素(主观规范)对消费者绿色农产品消费意愿的影响。结果表明,消费者的健康意识、面子观、主观规范对其绿色农产品消费意愿具有显著正向影响。

基于WebGIS的农产品品质安全监控系统

从农产品品质安全监控系统的结构与功能设计入手,全面介绍了整个系统的设计构思;提出了利用WebGIS技术和短信平台实现对农产品质量安全监测信息的收集与发布,建立集成生产、加工和流通于一体的农产品安全监测与预警系统;并对地图查询与短信平台子系统的开发做了详细描述。