A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco...A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.展开更多
The Songhua River Basin is a burgeoning agricultural area in the modern times in China. Particularly in recent years, increasing chemical fertilizers and pesticides have been applied with the development of agricultur...The Songhua River Basin is a burgeoning agricultural area in the modern times in China. Particularly in recent years, increasing chemical fertilizers and pesticides have been applied with the development of agricultural production. However, the situation of non- point source pollution （NSP） from agricultural production in this basin is still obscure. In order to solve the problem, the occurrence and distribution of acetochlor in sediments and riparian soils of the Songhua River Basin before rain season and after rain season were investigated. In addition, total organic carbon was analyzed. The result showed that the concentration of acetochlor ranged from 0.47 to 11.76 μg/kg in sediments and 0.03 to 709.37 μg/kg in riparian soils. During the high flow period in 2009, the mean concentration was 4.79 μg/kg in sediments and 0.75 μg]kg in riparian soils, respectively. Similarly, the mean concentration was 2.53 μg/kg in sediments and 61.36μg/kg in riparian soils, during the average flow period in 2010. There was a significant correlation between the concentration of acetochlor and total organic carbon in surface sediments. Moreover, the distribution of acetochlor in sediments of the Songhua River was significantly correlated to land use and topography of the watershed. The investigated data suggested that the concentration of acetochlor in the Songnen Plain and the Sanjiang Plain was higher than that in the other areas of the basin, and riparian buffering zones in these areas bad been destroyed by human activities. The optimal agricultural measures to alleviate the contamination of pesticides should be adopted, including controlling agricultural application of acetochlor and ecological restoration of riparian buffering strips.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130748, 41101162)the Key Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-304)
文摘A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.
基金supported by the National Special Water Project in China (No. 2008ZX07526-002-01)
文摘The Songhua River Basin is a burgeoning agricultural area in the modern times in China. Particularly in recent years, increasing chemical fertilizers and pesticides have been applied with the development of agricultural production. However, the situation of non- point source pollution （NSP） from agricultural production in this basin is still obscure. In order to solve the problem, the occurrence and distribution of acetochlor in sediments and riparian soils of the Songhua River Basin before rain season and after rain season were investigated. In addition, total organic carbon was analyzed. The result showed that the concentration of acetochlor ranged from 0.47 to 11.76 μg/kg in sediments and 0.03 to 709.37 μg/kg in riparian soils. During the high flow period in 2009, the mean concentration was 4.79 μg/kg in sediments and 0.75 μg]kg in riparian soils, respectively. Similarly, the mean concentration was 2.53 μg/kg in sediments and 61.36μg/kg in riparian soils, during the average flow period in 2010. There was a significant correlation between the concentration of acetochlor and total organic carbon in surface sediments. Moreover, the distribution of acetochlor in sediments of the Songhua River was significantly correlated to land use and topography of the watershed. The investigated data suggested that the concentration of acetochlor in the Songnen Plain and the Sanjiang Plain was higher than that in the other areas of the basin, and riparian buffering zones in these areas bad been destroyed by human activities. The optimal agricultural measures to alleviate the contamination of pesticides should be adopted, including controlling agricultural application of acetochlor and ecological restoration of riparian buffering strips.
