Application of Ambient Stress Parameters to Short-Term Prediction of the 2004, M_S5.0 Shuangbai, Yunnan Earthquake

Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.

Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on different non-linear autoregressive artificial neural network algorithms

Prediction of power output plays a vital role in the installation and operation of photovoltaic modules.In this paper,two photovoltaic module technologies,amorphous silicon and copper indium gallium selenide installed outdoors on the rooftop of the University of Dodoma,located at 6.5738°S and 36.2631°E in Tanzania,were used to record the power output during the winter season.The average data of ambient temperature,module temperature,solar irradiance,relative humidity,and wind speed recorded is used to predict the power output using a non-linear autoregressive artificial neural network.We consider the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization,Bayesian regularization,resilient propagation,and scaled conjugate gradient algorithms to understand their abilities in training,testing and validating the data.A comparison with reference to the performance indices:coefficient of determination,root mean square error,mean absolute percentage error,and mean absolute bias error is drawn for both modules.According to the findings of our investigation,the predicted results are in good agreement with the experimental results.All the algorithms performed better,and the predicted power out of both modules using the Bayesian regularization algorithm is observed to exhibit good processing capabilities compared to the other three algorithms that are evident from the measured performance indices.

Damage Identification of General Overhead Travelling Crane Structure Based on Model Updating by Sensitivity

A model based damage identification was proposed by facilitating parameter sensitivity analysis and applied to a general overhead travelling crane.As updating reference data,experimental modal frequency was obtained by operational modal analysis(OMA)under ambient excitation.One dimensional damage function was defined to identify the damage by bending stiffness.The results showed that the model updating method could locate the damage and quantitatively describe the structure.The average error of eigenvalues between updated model analysis and the experimental results was less than 4% which proved the accuracy reliable.The comparison of finite element analysis and the test results of the deflection under the capacity load further verified the feasibility of this method.