Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects (alternatives) for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals (WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as'proportion of benefit to project cost',will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as'proportion of benefit to project cost'are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

Travel modal choice analysis for traffic corridors based on decision-theoretic approaches

The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.

A Decision Support System for Spatial Analysis of Agricultural Production in Madagascar

In this article, our research aims to set up a geo-decisional system, more precisely we are particularly interested in the spatial analysis system of agricultural production in Madagascar. For this, we used the spatial data warehouse technique based on the SOLAP spatial analysis tool. After having defined the concepts underlying these systems, we propose to address the research issues related to them from four points of view: needs study of the Malagasy Ministry of Agriculture, modeling of a multidimensional conceptual model according to the MultiDim model and the implementation of the system studied using GeoKettle, PostGIS, GeoServer, SPAGO BI and Géomondrian technologies. This new system helps improve the decision-making process for agricultural production in Madagascar.

Decision modelling for economic evaluation of liver transplantation

As the gap between a shortage of organs and the immense demand for liver grafts persists, every available donor liver needs to be optimized for utility, urgency and equity. To overcome this challenge, decision modelling might allow us to gather evidence from previous studies as well as compare the costs and consequences of alternative options. For public health policy and clinical intervention assessment, it is a potentially powerful tool. The most commonly used types of decision analytical models include decision trees, the Markov model, microsimulation, discrete event simulation and the system dynamic model. Analytic models could support decision makers in the field of liver transplantation when facing specific problems by synthesizing evidence, comprising all relevant options, generalizing results to other contexts, extending the time horizon and exploring the uncertainty. For modeling studies of economic evaluation for transplantation, understanding the current nature of the disease is crucial, as well as the selection of appropriate modelling techniques. The quality and availability of data is another key element for the selection and development of decision analytical models. In addition, good practice guidelines should be complied, which is important for standardization and comparability between economic outputs.

Suitability Analysis of Satellite Towns Using Saaty Model and Geographical Information System (GIS)

Dar es Salaam is one of the fastest growing cities in East Africa, with a population of 4,364,541 whose annual growth rate is 4.5%. The population increase is mainly caused by rural to urban migration causing traffic congestion, unemployment, emerging of unplanned settlements, inadequate infrastructure, and social and housing services. In order to overcome these challenges there is an urgent need to establish and determine suitable locations of satellite towns to the outskirts of the central business district (CBD) to strengthen economic and social activities using reliable techniques. Selecting suitable locations of satellite towns has been determined by using distance from the CBD and population growth indicators. The limitations of using these indicators include unsuitable locations, which ultimately failed to attract economic growth in such areas. In this study, we introduce a new approach of selecting suitable location of satellite towns in fast growing cities. This approach uses Saaty Model and Geographic Information Systems techniques, whereby a pair wise comparison matrix, consistency index and consistency ratio are employed to determine suitable locations of satellite towns in Ubungo and Kinondoni Municipalities. Also, seven criteria were used to produce suitability maps for water, power line, road, communication line, elevation, slope and land use. The results obtained from this study show that about 5.31% of the area was classified as highly suitable, 29.82% as moderately suitable, 24.27% as marginally suitable and 40.6% permanently unsuitable. Locations of satellite towns determined using Saaty model was found to be on highly suitable areas whereas locations of satellite towns proposed by the Dar es Salaam master plan were located on marginally suitable areas. The study concludes that Saaty Model, if integrated with GIS, can be effectively used to determine suitable locations for satellite towns in urban areas.

Global sensitivity analysis for choosing the main soil parameters of a crop model to be determined

The use of a crop model like STICS for appropriate management decision support requires a good knowledge of all the parameters of the model. Among them, the soil parameters are difficult to know at each point of interest and costly techniques may be used to measure them. It is therefore important to know which soil parameters need to be determined. It can be stated that those which affect significantly the output variable deserve an accurate determination while those which slightly affect the model output variable do not. This paper demonstrates how a global sensitivity analysis method based on variance decomposition can be applied on soil parameters in order to divide them in the two categories. The Extended FAST method applied to the crop model STICS and a set of 13 soil parameters first allows to calculate the part of variance explained by each soil parameter (giving global sensitivity indices of the soil parameters) and the coefficient of variation of the output variables (measuring the effect of the parameter uncertainty on each variable). These metrics are therefore used for deciding on the importance of the parameter value measurement. Different output variables (Leaf Area Index and chlorophyll content) are evaluated at different stages of interest while others (crop yield, grain protein content, soil mineral nitrogen) are evaluated at harvest. The analysis is applied on two different annual crops (wheat and sugar beet), two contrasted weather and two types of soil depth. When the uncertainty of the output generated by the soil parameters is large (coefficient of variation > 1/3), only the parameters having a significant global sensitivity indices (higher than 10%) are retained. The results show that the number of soil parameters which deserve an accurate determination can be significantly reduced by the use of this relevant method for appropriate management decision support.

Development and Application of Decision Support Model for the Performance Optimization of Office Buildings Based on Grasshopper

With the expansion of the office building area,the energy consumption of office buildings is growing.High⁃performance building design contributes to energy saving and the development of green buildings.However,there is a lack of high⁃performance building tools and the workflow is often time⁃consuming.The building performance simulation,multiple objective optimizations,and the decision support model are the new approaches of high⁃performance building design.This paper proposes a newly developed decision support model,a high⁃performance building decision model named HPBuildingDSM,which integrates the building performance simulation,building performance multiple objective optimizations,building performance sampling,and parameter sensitivity analysis to design high⁃performance office buildings.In this research,the HPBuildingDSM was operated to search for the desirable office building design results with low⁃energy and high⁃quality daylighting performances.The simulated results had better daylighting performance and lower energy consumption,whose UDI100-2000 was 37.94%and annual energy consumption performance was 76.28 kWh/(m2·a),indicating a better building performance than the optimized results in the previous case study.

基于Analysis Services的数据挖掘模型的研究与应用

SQL Server 2000 Analysis Services是一整套的决策支持引擎和工具。本文介绍了Analysis Services的体系结构,讨论了用其进行数据挖掘的方法。阐述了一个构建数据挖掘模型、训练挖掘模型以及应用该模型进行预测的实例。

System structural analysis of communication networks based on DEMATEL-ISM and entropy

A method of system structural analysis based on decision making trial and evaluation laboratory together with interpretative structural modeling(DEMATEL-ISM) and entropy is proposed to clarify system structure of communication networks and analyze mutual influencing degree between different networks.Mutual influencing degree and importance degree of elements are both considered to determine weights of elements,and the entropy of expert judgment results is used to omit unimportant influence relation and simplify system structure.Structural analysis on communication networks system shows that the proposed method can quantificationally present weights and mutual influencing degree of elements,and reasonably simplify system structure.The results indicate the rationality and feasibility of the method.

Evaluation of building energy demand forecast models using multi-attribute decision making approach

With the existence of several conventional and advanced building thermal energy demand forecast models to improve the energy efficiency of buildings,it is hard to find an appropriate,convenient,and efficient model.Evaluations based on statistical indexes(MAE,RMSE,MAPE,etc.)that characterize the accuracy of the forecasts do not help in the identification of the efficient building thermal energy demand forecast tool since they do not reflect the efforts entailed in implementation of the forecast model,i.e.,data collection to production/use phase.Hence,this work presents a Gini Index based Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution(GI-MARCOS),a hybrid Multi Attribute Decision Making(MADM)approach for the identification of the most efficient building energy demand forecast tool.GI-MARCOS employs(i)GI based objective weight method:assigns meaningful objective weights to the attributes in four phases(1:pre-processing,2:implementation,3:post-processing,and 4:use phase)thereby avoiding unnecessary biases in the expert’s opinion on weights and applicable to domains where there is a lack of domain expertise,and(ii)MARCOS:provides a robust and reliable ranking of alternatives in a dynamic environment.A case study with three alternatives evaluated over three to six attributes in four phases of implementation(pre-processing,implementation,post-processing and use)reveals that the use of GI-MARCOS improved the accuracy of alternatives MLR and BM by 6%and 13%,respectively.Moreover,additional validations state that(i)MLR performs best in Phase 1 and 2,while ANN performs best in Phase 3 and 4 with BM providing a mediocre performance in all four phases,(ii)sensitivity analysis:provides robust ranking with interchange of weights across phases and attributes,and(iii)rank correlation:ranks produce by GI-MARCOS has a high correlation with GRA(0.999),COPRAS(0.9786),and ARAS(0.9775).

The Application of Optimum Decision in Oilfield Development

The major steps of oilfield development are given in this paper. The optimal model of oilfield development is built and the methods of optimum decision analysis are studied. The solution and analysis of the optimal tactics have been set up according to the data collected in the oilfield.

A Framework for Intelligent Decision Support System for Traffic Congestion Management System

Traffic congestion problem is one of the major problems that face many transportation decision makers for urban areas. The problem has many impacts on social, economical and development aspects of urban areas. Hence the solution to this problem is not straight forward. It requires a lot of effort, expertise, time and cost that sometime are not available. Most of the existing transportation planning software, specially the most advanced ones, requires personnel with lots practical transportation planning experience and with high level of education and training. In this paper we propose a comprehensive framework for an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) for Traffic Congestion Management System that utilizes a state of the art transportation network equilibrium modeling and providing an easy to use GIS-based interaction environment. The developed IDSS reduces the dependability on the expertise and level of education of the transportation planners, transportation engineers, or any transportation decision makers.

Seismic Reliability and Rehabilitation Decision of Water Distribution System

In order to evaluate the seismic reliability of water distribution system and make rehabilitation decisions correspondingly, it is necessary to assess pipelines damage states and conduct functional analysis based on pipe leakage model. When an earthquake occurred, the water distribution system kept serving with leakage. By adding a virtual node at the centre of the pipeline with leakage, an efficient approach to pressure-driven analysis was developed for simulating a variety of low relative scenarios, and a hydraulic leakage model was also built to perform hydraulic analysis of the water supply network with seismic damage. Then the mean-first-order-second-moment method was used to analyse the seismic serviceability of the water distribution system. According to the assessment analysis, pipes that were destroyed or in heavy leakage were isolated and repaired emergently, which improved the water supply capability of the network and would constitute the basis for enhancing seismic reliability of the system. The proposed approach to seismic reliability and rehabilitation decision analysis on water distribution system is demonstrated effective through a case study.

System failure analysis based on DEMATEL–ISM and FMECA

A new method of system failure analysis was proposed. First, considering the relationships between the failure subsystems,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) method was used to calculate the degree of correlation between the failure subsystems, analyze the combined effect of related failures, and obtain the degree of correlation by using the directed graph and matrix operations. Then, the interpretative structural modeling(ISM) method was combined to intuitively show the logical relationship of many failure subsystems and their influences on each other by using multilevel hierarchical structure model and obtaining the critical subsystems. Finally, failure mode effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) was used to perform a qualitative hazard analysis of critical subsystems, determine the critical failure mode, and clarify the direction of reliability improvement.Through an example, the result demonstrates that the proposed method can be efficiently applied to system failure analysis problems.

Short and Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Stochastic Analysis for Slow Dynamic Processes

This paper intends to develop suitable methods to provide likely scenarios in order to support decision making for slow dynamic processes such as the underlying of agribusiness. A new method to analyze the short- and long-term time series forecast and to model the behavior of the underlying process using nonlinear artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. The algorithm can effectively forecast the time-series data by stochastic analysis (Monte Carlo) of its future behavior using fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The algorithm was used to forecast country risk time series for several countries, both for short term that is 30 days ahead and long term 350 days ahead scenarios.

Modeling Environmental Susceptibility of Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Sites: A Case Study in São Paulo State, Brazil

The large excess of solid waste generated in cities is a result of population growth and economic development. Properly managing this municipal solid waste (MSW) is a challenge, mainly in underdeveloped and developing countries where financial concerns are an added problem. From the environmental point of view, a major issue is properly disposing MSW taking into consideration a wide range of factors, and working with different spatial data. In this study, we used geographic information system (GIS) to perform multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) conducted by analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The development of the environmental impact susceptibility model (EISM) for municipal solid waste disposal sites (MSWDS) applied to the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil considered factors such as geology, pedology, geomorphology, water resources, and climate represented by fifteen associated sub-factors. The results indicated that more than 82% of Sao Paulo’s territory is situated in areas with very low, low, and medium environmental impact susceptibility categories. However, in the remaining 18% of the state land area, 85 landfills are located in areas with high and very high environmental impact susceptibility categories. These results are alarming because these 85 landfills receive approximately 17,886 tons of MSW on a daily basis, which corresponds to 46% of all municipal solid waste disposed in Sao Paulo state. Therefore, decision makers, urban planners and policymakers could use the findings of the EISM towards mitigating the environmental impacts caused by MSWDS.

A GIS-Agriflux Modeling and AHP Techniques for Groundwater Potential Zones Mapping

Groundwater is considered as the main portion of the water supply in arid and semi-arid regions. The Sfax plain area is part of the arid/semi-arid areas of Tunisia that are subject to the impact of climatic and human pressures. Water scarcity in combination with groundwater exploitation is a major concern in this region. Therefore, sustainable management and protection of groundwater resources, it necessary. The delineation of groundwater potential (GP) zones becomes an increasingly important tool for implementing successful management programs. The purpose of the present paper is to assess the potential zone of groundwater resources in the study area. An efficient approach using geographical information system (GIS), hydrological modelling and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was developed. At first, six groundwater parameters that affect groundwater occurrences are derived from the spatial geodatabase. Those parameters are: Infiltration rate estimated from a GIS linked model, lineament density, drainage density, slope, rainfall and Land use/land cover. Then, the assigned weights of thematic layers based on expert knowledge were normalized by eigenvector technique of AHP. The parameter layers were integrated and modeled using a weighted linear combination (WLC). The resulting map was classified into four categories: very low, low, good, and excellent. The results showed that about 26% of the study area falls under very-low-potential zone, with 30% on low-potential zone, 21% with good potential zone, and 23% falling under excellent zone. The results of the analysis were validated using pumping rate data and curve trend of sensitivity classes theory validation of outcomes indicated a good prediction accuracy. The results of the present study can serve to prepare a comprehensive groundwater development and management plans proving its efficacy in this art of exploratory investigations.

A Novel System on Efficient Matching, Decision Making and Distributing

The object matching and distribution problem is a traditional challenge in different kinds of networks, such as kidney distribution networks. Applying differential element analysis methods, decision tree, integer linear programming the-ory and stochastic processes ideas, we propose models for the objects matching, the distribu-tion network, the exchange system and the in-dividual decision-making strategy, and thor-oughly analyze the relationship between the matching rate and the waiting time, and their impacts on the efficiency of the donor-matching process. And as the experiments, we evaluate the algorithms and system by kidney matching, decision making and distribution problems on real world data.