Inference Procedures on the Generalized Poisson Distribution from Multiple Samples: Comparisons with Nonparametric Models for Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) of Count Data

Count data that exhibit over dispersion (variance of counts is larger than its mean) are commonly analyzed using discrete distributions such as negative binomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and other models. The Poisson is characterized by the equality of mean and variance whereas the Negative Binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian have variance larger than the mean and therefore are more appropriate to model over-dispersed count data. As an alternative to these two models, we shall use the generalized Poisson distribution for group comparisons in the presence of multiple covariates. This problem is known as the ANCOVA and is solved for continuous data. Our objectives were to develop ANCOVA using the generalized Poisson distribution, and compare its goodness of fit to that of the nonparametric Generalized Additive Models. We used real life data to show that the model performs quite satisfactorily when compared to the nonparametric Generalized Additive Models.

Novel data-driven sparse polynomial chaos and analysis of covariance for aerodynamics of compressor cascades with dependent geometric uncertainties

Polynomial Chaos Expansion(PCE)has gained significant popularity among engineers across various engineering disciplines for uncertainty analysis.However,traditional PCE suffers from two major drawbacks.First,the orthogonality of polynomial basis functions holds only for independent input variables,limiting the model’s ability to propagate uncertainty in dependent variables.Second,PCE encounters the"curse of dimensionality"due to the high computational cost of training the model with numerous polynomial coefficients.In practical manufacturing,compressor blades are subject to machining precision limitations,leading to deviations from their ideal geometric shapes.These deviations require a large number of geometric parameters to describe,and exhibit significant correlations.To efficiently quantify the impact of high-dimensional dependent geometric deviations on the aerodynamic performance of compressor blades,this paper firstly introduces a novel approach called Data-driven Sparse PCE(DSPCE).The proposed method addresses the aforementioned challenges by employing a decorrelation algorithm to directly create multivariate basis functions,accommodating both independent and dependent random variables.Furthermore,the method utilizes an iterative Diffeomorphic Modulation under Observable Response Preserving Homotopy regression algorithm to solve the unknown coefficients,achieving model sparsity while maintaining fitting accuracy.Then,the study investigates the simultaneous effects of seven dependent geometric deviations on the aerodynamics of a high subsonic compressor cascade by using the DSPCE method proposed and sensitivity analysis of covariance.The joint distribution of the dependent geometric deviations is determined using Quantile-Quantile plots and normal copula functions based on finite measurement data.The results demonstrate that the correlations between geometric deviations significantly impact the variance of aerodynamic performance and the flow field.Therefore,it is crucial to consider these correlations for accurately assessing the aerodynamic uncertainty.

Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated energy system considering source-load correlation

In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.

Decomposition Method of Genetic Correlation Coefficient Based on NC Ⅱ Mating Design

There are different degrees of correlation between crop traits. The phenotypic correlation is decomposed into genetic and environmental correlation in quantitative genetics. In this paper,according to stochastic model of variance and covariance analysis,we calculate different genetic components,bring up a decomposition method of genetic correlation coefficient based on NC II mating design,and use examples to show analytic steps and interpret results.