On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Time-Variant Reliability Analysis of FPSO Hull Girder Considering Corrosion Based on Statistics

FPSO is a kind of important exploitation platform used in ocean oil and gas industry, which has the unique character of mooring at outsea for a long time. Since it can not be inspected and maintained thoronghly at dock like other kinds of ships, the reliability of FPSO hull girder during the whole service should be focused. Based on latest corrosion database and rational corrosion model, the ultimate strength of one FPSO is calculated under the conditions of slight, moderate and severe corrosion. The results not only provide the reliabihty under different corrosion conditions, but also do well for further inspection and maintenance research. The results provide necessary foundation for deciding inspection intervals and maintenance measure, which has practical sense to improve the general safety level of ocean engineering.

Comparison of Cox proportional hazards model,Cox proportional hazards with time-varying coefficients model,and lognormal accelerated failure time model:Application in time to event analysis of melioidosis patients

Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.

Complex Modal Analysis for the Time-Variant Dynamical Problem of Rotating Pipe Conveying Fluid

A semi-analytical form of complex modal analysis is proposed for the time-variant dynamical problem of rotating pipe conveying fluid system.The complex mode superposition method is introduced for the dynamic analysis in the time and frequency domains,in which appropriate orthogonality conditions are constructed to decouple the time-variant equation of motion.Consequently,complex frequencies and modes of vibration are analytically formulated and the variations of frequencies and damping of the system are evaluated.Numerical time-variant example of rotating pipe conveying fluid illustrates the effectiveness and accuracy of this method.Furthermore,the proposed solution scheme is also applicable to other similar time-variant dynamical problems.

A Measure for Assessing Functions of Time-Varying Effects in Survival Analysis

A standard approach for analyses of survival data is the Cox proportional hazards model. It assumes that covariate effects are constant over time, i.e. that the hazards are proportional. With longer follow-up times, though, the effect of a variable often gets weaker and the proportional hazards (PH) assumption is violated. In the last years, several approaches have been proposed to detect and model such time-varying effects. However, comparison and evaluation of the various approaches is difficult. A suitable measure is needed that quantifies the difference between time-varying effects and enables judgement about which method is best, i.e. which estimate is closest to the true effect. In this paper we adapt a measure proposed for the area between smoothed curves of exposure to time-varying effects. This measure is based on the weighted area between curves of time-varying effects relative to the area under a reference function that represents the true effect. We introduce several weighting schemes and demonstrate the application and performance of this new measure in a real-life data set and a simulation study.

基于AR技术的植保机作业布局与优化分析

以植保机作业优化仿真过程为研究对象,基于AR增强现实技术对植保机的转向、行进及作业过程进行仿真,构建植保机优化作业布局。通过AR增强现实对植保机进行识别,利用3dsMax构建植保机三维虚拟仿真模型,在Unity3D模块中对植保机作业环境进行虚拟搭建,以提升植保机作业仿真的真实性。

Wavelet Analysis of Earthquake Activity in the West of the Chinese Mainland and Its Adjacent Area1

Wavelets are a useful tool for analyzing the time-frequency of a non-stable series and are widely applied in many fields. The process of earthquake preparation and occurrence is a non-linear process. In the paper, the wavelet method is used to analyze the series of earthquake data for the time period from 1900 to 2003 in the west of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent area (WCMAA), and to obtain the characteristic information for different time scales. In the past 103 years, there were four primary periods of regional earthquake activity in the area with durations of 42, 22, 7 and 14 years, respectively and the intensity of earthquake activity changing with time. It doesn’t make sense to talk about active or quiet periods of earthquake activity unless it is based on a specific time scale. In addition, the tendency analysis of earthquake activity using the primary period of seismic activity and wavelet coefficients of varied time scales indicates that the earthquake activity in this region will be high in the forthcoming years.

基于联合分析法的AR家具交互界面设计

为研究AR家具交互界面设计,首先采用市场调研及用户访谈法,归纳AR家具交互界面的构成要素及要素类型,再拆分并正交重组,让用户根据自身的体验与偏好,对模拟的试验方案量化打分,收集数据计算得出各要素及类型的效用值和重要性值,分析用户在使用AR家具交互界面时的偏好,在此基础上确立AR家具交互界面的设计原则,生成界面设计方案。联合分析法作为一种针对多因素的数据统计分析方法,能够使设计人员更好地了解用户对AR家具交互界面上的偏好,从而在做产品设计开发或产品更新迭代时,能更好地提升用户留存度与满意度,改善用户体验。

Analysis of limitations on recovery of gravity field based on satellite gravity gradient data

Although satellite gravity gradient data plays a great role in determining short-wavelength part of static gravity field model,accuracy of the long-wavelength part of gravity field model recovered by them are poor,which leads to only a few applications in time-variable gravity investigation.The reason is that some factors limit the accuracy of the gravity field recovered using gradient data,including accuracy of the gravity gradient observations,measurement bandwidth(MBW)of gradiometer,satellite inclination,etc.This paper aims at analyzing the influence of these limitations on gravity field recovery and discusses the possibility of time-variable gravity field detection by using gravity gradient observations.Firstly,for arbitrary satellite orbit inclination,we give the frequency distributions of all the components of gravity gradients(i.e.Txx;Tyy;Tzz;Txy;Txz and Tyz,).The results show that the maximum frequency of each component of the gravity gradients is the same,i.e.l=Ts(l is degree of the gravity field model,Ts is the orbital periods),and it is not influenced by the inclination of the satellite orbits.Secondly,the paper gives a theory proof to explain why only the low orders of the coefficients are influenced by polar gaps.Big polar gaps are experimented by a numerical test with inclination of 45°.Finally,considering that the measurement bandwidth can be expanded and accuracy of gradient observations can be improved by superconducting gravity gradiometer(SGG)compared to gradiometer used in Gravity field and steadystate Ocean Circulation Explorer(GOCE),the possibility of detecting time-variable gravity using gravity gradient observations is discussed.The results show that the SGG creates errors in MBW with magnitude of 0.014 m E,which is smaller than the magnitude of the time-variable gravity gradient signals(i.e.,0.02 m E)derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)gravity field models.This indicates the potential of SGG in time-variable gravity detection.

Multi-agent consensus with time-varying delays and switching topologies

The consensus problems of multi-agents with time-varying delays and switching topologies are studied. First, assume that an agent receives state information from its neighbors with fixed communication delays and processes its own state information with time-varying self-delay respectively. The state time-delay feedback is introduced into the existing consensus protocol to begenerate an improved protocol. Then a sufficient condition is derived which can make the system with time-varying self-delays achieve the consensus. On this basis, a specific form of consensus equilibrium influenced by the initial states of agents, time-delays and state feedback intensity is figured out. In addition, the multi-agent consensus is considered with time-varying topologies. Finally, simulations are presented to il ustrate the validity of theoretical results.

Stability analysis and stabilization of wireless networked control systems based on deadband control scheduling

The stability analysis and stabilization problems of the wireless networked control systems(WNCSs) with signal transmission deadbands were considered. The deadbands were respectively set up at the sensor to the controller and the controller to the actor sides in the WNCS, which were used to reduce data transmission, furthermore, to decrease the network collision and node energy consumption. Under the consideration of time-varying delays and signal transmission deadbands, the model for the WNCS was presented. A novel Lyapunov functional which took full advantages of the network factors was exploited. Meanwhile, new stability analysis and stabilization conditions for the WNCS were proposed, which described the relationship of the delay bounds, the transmission deadband bounds and the system stability. Two examples were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The results show that the proposed approach can guarantee asymptotical stability of the system and reduce the data transmission effectively.

New algorithm applied to vibration equations of time-varying system

Vibration equations of time-varying system are transformed to the form which is suitable to precise integration algorithm.Precision analysis and computation efficiency of new algorithm are implemented.The following conclusions can be got.Choosing matrixes M,G and K is certainly flexible.We can place left side of nonlinear terms of vibration equations of time-varying system into right side of equations in precise integration algorithms.The key of transformation from vibration equations of time-varying system to first order differential equations is to form matrix H,which should be assured to be nonsingular.With suitable disposal,precision and computation efficiency of precise integration algorithms are greatly larger than those of general methods.

无氧铜样品盘异常热本底对激光^(40)Ar/^(39)Ar定年的影响

激光^(40)Ar/^(39)Ar定年方法中扣除的本底是样品测试过程中的系统冷本底。在满足激光加热样品时样品盘升温幅度有限和样品盘已完全脱气两个条件的情况下,这一处理方式的有效性才能得到保证。本文利用具有不同大气暴露史的无氧铜样品盘结合透长石标准样品YBCs,使用相同的脱气及测试流程,对比分析了不同样品盘的冷、热本底以及放置于不同样品盘时YBCs的大气氩含量。分析结果表明,放置于暴露大气14个月的样品盘内时,YBCs透长石大气氩含量高达约34.4%,使用预先激光去气的样品盘此值可降低至约2%;暴露大气约10个月的样品盘,激光加热其两个样品孔时,^(40)Ar脱气量可达约1.6×10−14~3.1×10−14mol;暴露时长约为26个月的样品盘,^(40)Ar含量升高至约0.8×10^(−13)~2.0×10^(−13)mol;它们均远高于系统冷本底3.8×10^(−16)~6.2×10^(−16)mol。两个样品盘热本底^(40)Ar/36Ar值约为310,高于大气氩比值。因此,对于暴露大气时间较长的样品盘,约150℃去气四天的流程不足以使其完全脱气。激光加热样品时会导致样品盘局部升温,脱气不完全的样品盘会释放出大量热本底。模拟以及标准样品测试均显示了这种情况会影响辐照参数J值以及年龄的计算。激光微量年轻样品^(40)Ar/^(39)Ar定年过程中,建议装样后对无氧铜样品盘进行300~400℃至少5h的预脱气,以保证测试数据质量。实验室不具备预脱气条件时,持续使用同一样品盘也可以有效地降低异常热本底对测试结果的影响。

ICA Based Identification of Time-Varying Linear Causal Model

Recently, several approaches have been proposed to discover the causality of the time-independent or fixed causal model. However, in many realistic applications, especially in economics and neuroscience, causality among variables might be time-varying. A time-varying linear causal model with non-Gaussian noise is considered and the estimation of the causal model from observational data is focused. Firstly, an independent component analysis(ICA) based two stage method is proposed to estimate the time-varying causal coefficients. It shows that, under appropriate assumptions, the time varying coefficients in the proposed model can be estimated by the proposed approach, and results of experiment on artificial data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. And then, the granger causality test is used to ascertain the causal direction among the variables. Finally, the new approach is applied to the real stock data to identify the causality among three stock indices and the result is consistent with common sense.

TIME-VARYING AR MODELING AND ADAPTIVE IIR NOTCH FILTER FOR ANTI-JAMMING DSSS RECEIVER

Using Time-Varying AR (TVAR) model and adaptive notch filter is a new method for the non-stationary jammer suppression in Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS). The performance of TVAR model for Instantaneous Frequency (IF) estimation will be affected by some factors such as basis functions. Focusing on this problem, the optimal basis function of TVAR model for the IF estimation of the LFM signal is obtained in this paper. Besides the depth and width of notching, the phase properties of notch filter affect the Signal-to-Interference plus-Noise Ratio (SINR) of correlation output to the narrowband jammer suppression in DSSS, in response to the problem the closed solution of correlation output SINR improvement has been derived when a single frequency jammer passes through direct IIR notch filter, and its performance has been compared with those of five coefficient FIR filters. Later, a novel method for LFM jammer suppression based on Fourier basis TVAR model and direct IIR notch filter is proposed. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dynamics of a Dual Power-split Transmission Based on Loaded Tooth Contact Analysis

In order to implement the dynamic characteristic of a dual power-split transmission, a dynamic me- chanics model is built. Firstly, according to the method of theoretical analysis of the tooth contact analysis （TCA） and loaded tooth contact analysis （LTCA）, the actual meshing process of each gear pairs is simulated, and the time-varying mesh stiffness excitations are obtained, which can improve the numerical precision. Second- ly, by using the lumped mass method, the bending-torsional coupling three dimensional dynamic model of the dual power-split transmission is established, and the identical dimensionless equations are deduced by elimina- ting the effect of rigid displacement and the method of dimensional normalization. Finally, by the method of the fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm with variable step lengths, the responses of this system in a frequency domain and time domain are obtained, and the dynamic load change characteristics of each gear pairs are analyzed. The results show that the establishment, solution and analysis of the system dynamics model could provide a basis for the dynamic design, and have an important significance for the dynamic efficiency analysis and dynamic perform- ance optimization design of the dual power-split transmission.

基于加权分位数回归参数估计的AR模型及其应用

提出加权分位数自回归AR(p)模型对路基边坡变形预测的新方法,给出其原理和具体算法。以重庆奉云高速公路某滑坡段为例验证了该方法的有效性,并与其他模型作对比分析。结果表明:新方法的预测效果优于最小二乘参数估计的AR(p)模型、非加权分位数估值的AR(p)模型、ARIMA及EMD-ARIMA模型。

AR导航导览技术在体育场馆的应用

随着增强现实(AR)技术的蓬勃发展,AR导航导览技术系统在体育场馆中的应用引起了广泛的关注,该技术在观众导航、实时信息展示和个性化服务等方面展示了广阔的应用前景。然而为提升观众满意度和参与度,我们需要关注体育场馆体验的关键因素,例如,观众的参与程度、信息获取和导航服务。为了进一步优化AR导航导览技术系统在体育场馆的应用,我们提出了未来的研究方向和改进建议。为了达到上述目标,文章通过查询相关资料和进行文献综述,对AR导航导览技术系统在体育场馆中的应用进行了深入研究。研究结果对于体育场馆管理者和技术开发人员具有重要的实践意义,可以为提升体育场馆体验和吸引观众提供有益的参考与借鉴。

石英的^（40）Ar／^（39）Ar定年方法及Ar同位素质谱分析

石英中Ｋ含量极低，而且一般含有包体成分（气相、液相或固相）的干扰，用常规Ｋ—Ａｒ稀释法很难测定其同位素地质年龄。采用４０Ａｒ／３９Ａｒ快中子活化定年法，通过石英中３９Ｋ（ｎ·Ｐ）３９Ａｒ核反应，把微量Ｋ的化学分析转化为３９Ａｒ静态质谱法测定，从样品挑选、样品用量、照射时间、实验流程、质谱分析及数据处理诸环节严格把关，使Ｃｌ和过剩Ａｒ的干扰降低到最小限度，就能得到比较可靠的年龄数据，进而获得含金石英脉的成矿时代。