Analytic Hierarchy Process for Technological Risks in the Process of Innovative Drug Development in China

Objective To identify the critical risks in the process of innovative drug research and development,and to provide reference for improving the efficiency of innovative drug development and risk control in China.Methods Expert investigation and analytic hierarchy process were used to determine the weights of different risks.Results and Conclusion The research and analysis results showed that the risks at different stages of development had different effects on the success rate of drug development,among which the risk at the drug discovery stage influenced the most.In the drug discovery stage,inappropriate target selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development.The lack of appropriate cell tissue or animal models had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from the discovery of a compound to the application for clinical trials.The difference in changes between nonclinical and clinical studies had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from early clinical studies to pivotal clinical studies.Incorrect dose selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from pivotal clinical studies to marketing authorization applications.The biggest impact from the marketing authorization application to the approval stage was inadequate communication with regulators.After investigating the weight of risk factors in the process of innovative drug development based on scientific methods,a new perspective for the risk control of new drug development and improving the research and development efficiency is provided.

Assessment and Application of Beach Quality Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yangkou Beach, Qingdao

The whole-beach quality assessment is the basis of building and preserving beautiful beaches.The beach quality assessment index system and assessment standard have been established based on the attributes of beaches(including the width,slope,landform,and types),sorting coefficient,and softness degree of surface sediment.The assessment weight of each index for quality evaluation was analyzed using the analytic hierarchy process,and comprehensive scores of selected beach profiles were calculated in accordance with the light assessment standard.A beach quality evaluation model based on index weight and scores was established in this paper.The factors of 12 profiles of Yangkou Beach in Qingdao City were surveyed to carry out a quality assessment,and the comprehensive scores of each profile were calculated in accordance with the evaluation model.The results showed that the quality of Yangkou Beach can be divided into four ratings:excellent,good,medium,and poor.The excellent-quality area includes a wide and flat dry beach zone and soft,flat,and clean intertidal and subtidal zones covered with well-sorted fine sand,and leisure sports,such as volleyball,running,and swimming,are suitable for tourists.The good-quality area features a slightly narrow and dry beach zone,moderately soft and uneven intertidal and subtidal zones covered with fine sand and a small tidal gully,and a small amount of foreign matter;leisure sports,such as walking and running,are suitable for tourists.This study recommends the building of fixed drainage ditches or underground culverts to reduce the tidal gully.The medium-quality area consisted of a narrow and dry beach zone,moderately soft and uneven intertidal and subtidal zones covered by poorly sorted medium sand,a tide ditch,and a small amount of foreign matter.In this area,walking is suitable for tourists.Sand should be supplemented in the intertidal zone.The poor-quality area contained a very narrow and dry beach zone covered with poor-sorted gravel,a very chaotic intertidal zone with a considerable amount of foreign matters,such as bricks and rocks,wide tidal ditches,and an uneven subtidal zone with some reefs;leisure sports are unsuitable here.Thus,foreign matter and reefs should be removed,and the dry beach zone should be supplemented with sand.Therefore,the beach quality assessment is a very useful tool for building beautiful beaches.

COLLISION AVOIDANCE DECISION-MAKING MODEL OF MULTI-AGENTS IN VIRTUAL DRIVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Collision avoidance decision-making models of multiple agents in virtual driving environment are studied. Based on the behavioral characteristics and hierarchical structure of the collision avoidance decision-making in real life driving, delphi approach and mathematical statistics method are introduced to construct pair-wise comparison judgment matrix of collision avoidance decision choices to each collision situation. Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is adopted to establish the agents＇ collision avoidance decision-making model. To simulate drivers＇ characteristics, driver factors are added to categorize driving modes into impatient mode, normal mode, and the cautious mode. The results show that this model can simulate human＇s thinking process, and the agents in the virtual environment can deal with collision situations and make decisions to avoid collisions without intervention. The model can also reflect diversity and uncertainly of real life driving behaviors, and solves the multi-objective, multi-choice ranking priority problem in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. This collision avoidance model of multi-agents model is feasible and effective, and can provide richer and closer-to-life virtual scene for driving simulator, reflecting real-life traffic environment more truly, this model can also promote the practicality of driving simulator.

A min-max optimization approach for weight determination in analytic hierarchy process

A min-max optimization method is proposed as a new approach to deal with the weight determination problem in the context of the analytic hierarchy process. The priority is obtained through minimizing the maximal absolute difference between the weight vector obtained from each column and the ideal weight vector. By transformation, the. constrained min- max optimization problem is converted to a linear programming problem, which can be solved using either the simplex method or the interior method. The Karush-Kuhn- Tucker condition is also analytically provided. These control thresholds provide a straightforward indication of inconsistency of the pairwise comparison matrix. Numerical computations for several case studies are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed method with three existing methods. This observation illustrates that the min-max method controls maximum deviation and gives more weight to non- dominate factors.

GIS Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping with Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in District Ghizer, Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan

District Ghizer is a rugged mountainous territory which experiences several landslides each year. There are 16 major landslide areas and 53 villages that are at high risk to hazards. Keeping in view the severity of natural hazards, the present study was designed to generate landslide susceptibility map based on twelve causative factors viz., slope, aspect, elevation, drainage network, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), lithological units, fault lines, rainfall, road network, land cover and soil texture. Soil texture was determined by particle size analysis and data for other factors were acquired from freely available sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to identify major landslide causative factors in the district Ghizer. Further, a temporal assessment from 1999 till 2015 was generated to assess the impact of land cover change on landslides. It indicated that the barren soil/ exposed rocks and glaciers have reduced while the vegetation and water classes have shown increment. The total area that lies in moderate to very high landslide susceptible zones was 74.38%, while slope is the main landslide causative factor in the district Ghizer. Validation of the susceptibility map showed 88.1% of the landslides in the study area had occurred in the moderate to very high susceptible zones.

Quality Evaluation of Threshing and Redrying Process Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

Improving the stability of the homogenization process to achieve the homogeneity of tobacco products is one of important targets for the redrying industry.According to the specification for threshing and redrying process,a total of 14 indicators in three categories that affect the quality of the threshing and redrying process were selected.Using analytic hierarchy process,combined with expert experiences,a judgment matrix was constructed to conduct consistency test.The weights of indices in production were obtained.This will help in evaluating the actual production quality,finding the weak links of process and adjusting the parameters of the corresponding links in a targeted manner,thereby improving the quality of production process.

Analytic Hierarchy Process in Service of Customized Offer in Banking： Savings and Investment

Today＇s banking institutions spread their product and service line on a daily basis. This effort to increase competitiveness is also creating an overstocked supply for existing and new clients. Not every product is meant for every client and aggressive sales strategies tend to repel clients which can cause serious problems in long-term client-bank relations. This paper will analyze savings and investments products along with their adaptation and modulation regarding client needs. Accordingly, banks will be able to offer particular products to clients with specific needs and wishes. The analytic hierarchy process, or simply AHP method, represents a process which will be able to transform client＇s demands and affinities into a customized offer. It is an easy-to-implement method used in any step of the decision-making process; the process must have multiple alternatives and each of them carries specific characteristics. The decision maker ranks all the characteristics and simultaneously all the alternatives, according to his affinities forming a final decision. This paper will explain how banks will be able to adapt to client needs and wishes in the future using the AHP method.

Groundwater Exploration Using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Central Nigeria

There exists a growing demand for potable water resources to fill the abysmally insufficient water needs for domestic and industrial especially in the Basement Complex terrains of Nigeria. This situation is attributable to its complex hydrogeologic character. The present challenge has worsened due to the non-incorporation of integrated methods in groundwater exploration campaigns. To effectively combat the challenge of unacceptable failure rates in drilled water well development, there is a need for innovative scientific principles and quantitative assessment of groundwater resources to enhance sustainable and proper utilisation of these resources. Hence, it is the objective of this research to exploit the potential application of remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques and freely open datasets in mapping groundwater potential zones. Seven thematic maps have been produced based on factors that are deemed to influence and deemed to have significant control on the occurrence and movement of groundwater. These factors are geology, lineament density, slope, drainage density, rainfall, land-use/land cover, and soil class. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign normalised weights to the thematic maps based on the various relative contributions to groundwater occurrence and movement. These thematic maps were then processed in a GIS environment using the Weighted Overlay tool which implements the MCDA. The resulting Groundwater Potential Zones (GPZ) of the area gave rise to Five classes viz: Very good, Good, Moderate, Poor and Very Poor representing 19%, 8%, 14%, 47% and 13% respectively. It is recommended that the GPZ map should be used as a reconnaissance tool for selecting prospective sites for detailed groundwater resource exploitation.

METHOD FOR BRIDGE BEARING CAPACITY ASSESSMENT BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

By analyzing the existing methods for the bridge bearing capacity assessment, an analytic hierarchy pro cess estimation model with a variable weight and fuzzy description is proposed based on the nondestructive infor mation. Considering the actual strength, the bearing capacity is first calculated from its design state, and then modified based on the detection information. The modification includes the section reduction and the structure deterioration. The section reduction involves the concrete section and the steel cross-section reduction. The structure deterioration is decided by six factors, i.e. , the concrete surface damage, the actual concrete strength, the steel corrosion electric potential, the chloride ion content, the carbonization depth, and the protective layer depth. The initial weight of each factor is calculated by the expert judgment matrix using an analytic hierarchy process. The consistency approximation and the error transfer theory are used. Then, the variable weight is in- troduced to expand the influences of factors in the worse state. Finally, an actual bridge is taken as an example to verify the proposed method. Results show that the estimated capacity agrees well with that of the load test, thus the method is objective and credible

Analytic Hierarchy Process for Evaluating Flipped Classroom Learning

In reality,the flipped classroom has gained popularity as a modern way of structuring teaching,where lectures move from in-class procedures to digitally-based assignments,freeing up the debate,and practice exercises class time.Therefore,it is essential to implement and analyze a way of teaching that will improve student performance.The paper aims to develop a model of the method of teaching science in Iraqi schools,and to assess whether teaching flipped classroom affects the achievement,motivation,and creative thinking of students by using the methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM)in the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The AHP approach includes several steps,including setting assessment criteria and their weights,and by assessing the methodology of the flipped classroom as compared to the conventional cognitive learning process.An experiment was carried out in Iraqi secondary schools to examine the attitude of the students towards the subject of Chemistry.The findings have indicated that the students and teachers favored flipped classroom learning more than conventional cognitive learning.The study took the following parameters compared to the traditional approach:teaching techniques,learning flexibility,teaching aids effectiveness,student participation and working environment.This paper indicates that the teachers in Iraqi schools will be able to improve and do more preparation to shift towards flipped learning in the classroom.

Evaluating Watershed Vulnerability in Bernalillo County, New Mexico Using Expert Testimony, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, and GIS

Geographic Information System (GIS) software was used to create a watershed vulnerability model for Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Watershed vulnerability was investigated as a function of soil erosion and infiltration criteria: precipitation, land slope, soil erodibility (K-factor), vegetation cover (NDVI), land use, drainage density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and hydrologic soil group. Respective criteria weights were derived using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) supported by expert opinion. A survey of 10 experts, representing New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMT), the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (NMBGMR), and the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), provided model input data for an integrated pair-wise comparison matrix for soil erosion and for infiltration. Individual criteria weights were determined by decomposing the respective fuzzy synthetic extent matrix using the centroid method. GIS layers were then combined based on criteria weights to produce maps of soil erosion potential and infiltration potential. A composite watershed vulnerability map was generated by equal weighting of each input map. Model results were categorized into five vulnerability categories: not vulnerable (N), slightly vulnerable (SV), moderately vulnerable (MV), highly vulnerable (HV), and extremely vulnerable (EV). The resulting FAHP/GIS model was used to generate a watershed vulnerability map of discrete areas in Bernalillo County, which may be vulnerable to stormwater run-off events and soil erosion. Such high volume run-off events can cause erosion damage to property and infrastructure. Alternatively, in areas near urban development, stormwater run-off may contribute non-point-source pollutant contamination of New Mexico’s surface water resources. The most problematic areas in Bernalillo County are present in the Eastern and Northwestern portions. However, less than 1% of the total area lies within the lowest and highest vulnerability categories with the majority centered around moderate vulnerability. The results of the model were compared with a previously published crisp AHP method. Both methods showed similar regional vulnerability trends. This MCDS/GIS approach is intended to provide support to local governments and decision makers in selection of suitable structural or nonstructural stormwater control measures.

Designing a Fuzzy Expert System to Evaluate Alternatives in Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

This paper concerns with proposing a fuzzy logic based expert system to breakthrough the problem of alternatives evaluation in Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP as a multi criteria decision aid helped decision makers for ana-lyzing and prioritizing the alternatives in a hierarchical structure. During times AHP encountered some problems. Hence, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and some other extensions of AHP have been configured to solve those problems.

Landfill Siting Using GIS and AHP （Analytical Hierarchy Process）： A Case Study AI-Qasim Qadhaa, Babylon, Iraq

The selection of a landfill site is considered as a complicated task because this process is based on many factors and restrictions. For Al-Qasim Qadhaa, which is situated in the southern part of the Babylon Governorate, Iraq, there is no landfill site in that area that conforms to the scientific criteria for selecting sites for landfill. For this reason, 15 criteria were adopted in this study （groundwater depth, rivers, soil types, agriculture lands use, land use, elevation, slope, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, urban centers, villages and archaeological sites） using GIS （geographic information system）, which has a large ability to manage input data. In addition, the AHP （analytical hierarchy process） method was used to derive the relative weightings for each criterion using pair-wise comparison. To obtain the suitability index for candidate landfill sites, a weighted linear combination method was used. After combining these methods, two suitable candidate landfill sites, with areas of 2.766 km2 and 2.055 km2, respectively, were found to satisfy the scientific and environmental requirements. The area of these sites can accommodate solid waste from 2020 until 2030 based on the required area, which was 0.702 km2.

Application of combination weighting method in contract risk's evaluation of third party logistics

First,the analytical hierarchy process(AHP),which stands for the subjective weighting method,and the entropy method,which stands for the objective weighting method,are chosen to calculate the index weights of the contract risks of third party logistics(TPL),respectively.Then,they can determine the combination weights using the combination weighting method.Second,using the combination weights,the contract risks of TPL are evaluated through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.According to the combination weights,the most important risk factor of the contract risks of TPL is choosing sub-contractors.The results are basically consistent with the facts and show that the weights determined by the combination weighting method can avoid the man-made deviations of the subjective weighting method on the one hand,and prevent results opposite to the reality brought about by the objective weighting method on the other hand.Meanwhile,the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are that the contract risks of TPL are at a high risk level.Roughly this matches real situations,and it indicates that the combination weighting method can generate the comprehensive assessment more scientifically and more reasonably as well.

Weighting indicators of building energy efficiency assessment taking account of experts' priority

Analytic hierarchy process(Group AHP) is combined with two different methods of assigning experts' priority to weight indicators in building energy efficiency assessment.One is to assign the experts' priority averagely,and the other is to use cluster analysis to assign experts' priority.The results show that,1) Different expert's priority assigns result in great different weights of indicators in building energy efficiency assessment,therefore,the method of assigning experts' priority should be taken into account carefully while weighting indicators of building energy efficiency assessment using Group AHP;2) Three indicators are found to be overwhelmingly important in residential building energy efficiency assessment in the hot summer and cold winter zone in China.They are 'Outdoor & indoor shadow','Heating & air-conditioning facilities' and 'Insulation of envelope';3) The method combining cluster analysis with Group AHP to weight indicator of building energy efficiency assessment has the advantage of finding overwhelming important indicator,whereas,some less important indicators have a tendency to be ignored.A useful reference is provided for building energy conservation including policy revision and energy efficient residential building design.

On consistency of the weighted arithmetical mean complex judgement matrix

The weighted arithmetical mean complex judgement matrix （WAMCJM） is the most common method for aggregating group opinions, but it has a shortcoming, namely the WAMCJM of the perfectly consistent judgement matrices given by experts canot guarantee its perfect consistency. An upper bound of the WAMCJM＇s consistency is presented. Simultaneously, a compatibility index of judging the aggregating extent of group opinions is also introduced. The WAMCJM is of acceptable consistency and is proved provided the compatibilities of all judgement matrices given by experts are smaller than the threshold value of acceptable consistency. These conclusions are important to group decision making.

Research on the Weight of Index for the Assessment Standard for Green Store Building

Assessment standard for green store building of national standard has been compiled. The index has been given by experts' subjective assignment based on experience. Analytic hierarchy process has been used,making questionnaires of experts,using pairwise comparison and calculating the weight of each index. The weight of index in assessment would not only make quantitative evaluation on the whole situation of green store buildings,but also provide the foundation for compilation and revision.

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for the Selection of Low-Cost Green Building Materials and Components

The necessity of having an effective computer-aided decision support system in the housing construction industry is rapidly growing alongside the demand for green buildings and green building products. Identifying and defining financially viable low-cost green building materials and components, just like selecting them, is a crucial exercise in subjectivity. With so many variables to consider, the task of evaluating such products can be complex and discouraging. Moreover, the existing mode for selecting and managing, often very large information associated with their impacts constrains decision-makers to perform a trade-off analysis that does not necessarily guarantee the most environmentally preferable material. This paper introduces the development of a multi-criteria decision support system (DSS) aimed at improving the understanding of the principles of best practices associated with the impacts of low-cost green building materials and components. The DSS presented in this paper is to provide designers with useful and explicit information that will aid informed decision-making in their choice of materials for low-cost green residential housing projects. The prototype MSDSS is developed using macro-in-excel, which is a fairly recent database management technique used for integrating data from multiple, often very large databases and other information sources. This model consists of a database to store different types of low-cost green materials with their corresponding attributes and performance characteristics. The DSS design is illustrated with particular emphasis on the development of the material selection data schema, and application of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) concept to a material selection problem. Details of the MSDSS model are also discussed including workflow of the data evaluation process. The prototype model has been developed with inputs elicited from domain experts and extensive literature review, and refined with feedback obtained from selected expert builder and developer companies. This paper further demonstrates the application of the prototype MSDSS for selecting the most appropriate low-cost green building material from among a list of several available options, and finally concludes the study with the associated potential benefits of the model to research and practice.

Integration of Decision-Support and Knowledge-Based Techniques in a Problem-Solving Strategy for Selection Problems

The limitations of traditional approaches to selection problems are examined. A problemsolving strategy is presented in which decision-support and knowledge-based techniques play complementary roles. An approach to the representation of knowledge to support the problem-solving strategy is presented which avoids commitment to a specific programming language or implementation environment. The problem of choosing a home is used to illustrate the representation of knowledge in a specific problem domain. Techniques for implementation of the problem-solving strategy are described. Knowledge elicitation techniques and their implementation in a development shell for application of the problem-solving strategy to any selection problem are also described.

A Decision Support System for Selection of Solar Power Plant Locations by Applying Fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS: An Empirical Study

The objective of this research is to propose a decision support system for avoiding flood on solar power plant site selection. Methodologically, the geographic information system (GIS) is used to determine the optimum site for a solar power plant. It is intended to integrate the qualitative and quantitative variables based upon the adoption of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) model. These methods are employed to unite the environmental aspects and social needs for electrical power systematically. Regarding a case study of the choice of a solar power plant site in Thailand, it demonstrates that the quantitative and qualitative criteria should be realized prior to analysis in the Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS model. The fuzzy AHP is employed to determine the weights of qualitative and quantitative criteria that can affect the selection process. The adoption of the fuzzy AHP is aimed to model the linguistic unclear, ambiguous, and incomplete knowledge. Additionally, TOPSIS, which is a ranking multi-criteria decision making method, is employed to rank the alternative sites based upon overall efficiency. The contribution of this paper lies in the evolution of a new approach that is flexible and practical to the decision maker, in providing the guidelines for the solar power plant site choices under stakeholder needs: at the same time, the desirable functions are achieved, in avoiding flood, reducing cost, time and causing less environmental impact. The new approach is assessed in the empirical study during major flooding in Thailand during the fourth quarter of 2011 to 2012. The result analysis and sensitivity analysis are also presented.