This paper established mix regression model for simulating annual flow, in which annual runoff is auto-regression factor, precipitation, air temperature and water consumption are regression factors; we adopted 9 hypot...This paper established mix regression model for simulating annual flow, in which annual runoff is auto-regression factor, precipitation, air temperature and water consumption are regression factors; we adopted 9 hypothesis climate change schemes to forecast the change of annual flow of Sanmenxia Station. The results show : (1) When temperature is steady, the average annual runoff will increase by 8.3% if precipitation increases by 10%; when precipitation decreases by 10%, the average annual runoff will decrease by 8.2%; when precipitation is steady, the average annual runoff will decrease by 2.4% if temperature increases 1℃; if temperature decreases 1℃, runoff will increase by 1.2%. The mix regression model can well simulate annual runoff. (2) As to 9 different temperature and precipitation scenarios, scenario 9 is the most adverse to the runoff of Sanmenxia Station of Yellow River; i.e. temperature increases 1℃ and precipitation decreases by 10%. Under this condition, the simulated average annual runoff decreases by 10.8%. On the contrary, scenario 1 is the best to the enhancement of runoff; i.e. when temperature decreases 1 ℃ precipitation will increase by 10%, which will make the annual runoff of Sanmenxia increase by 10.6%.展开更多
On the basis of the observational data on the annual sediment transport by debris flow in recent 8 years, appling the catastrophe forecast method of Grey System Theory, this study has established the catastrophe model...On the basis of the observational data on the annual sediment transport by debris flow in recent 8 years, appling the catastrophe forecast method of Grey System Theory, this study has established the catastrophe model of the annual sediment transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully. It has forecasted the next potential catastrophic year in which the annual sediment transport will be over the catastrophic. threshold 2 million m3. Furthermore, it has introduced the 'equal dimension-new information model', which makes the forecast be done continuously.展开更多
In this study, we examined the influence of changes in the degree and frequency of disturbance in estuarine tidal flats on the annual salt marsh plant communities (Suaeda maritima, Artemisia fukudo) in Mie Prefecture,...In this study, we examined the influence of changes in the degree and frequency of disturbance in estuarine tidal flats on the annual salt marsh plant communities (Suaeda maritima, Artemisia fukudo) in Mie Prefecture, Japan. Suaeda maritima and Artemisia fukudo communities occur in the branch river of the Kushida River. Although the areas occupied by these communities were very small in 2006, the Suaeda maritima community expanded significantly to 3609 m2 in 2008, and the Artemisia fukudo community expanded significantly to 2726 m2 in 2008 and 10,396 m2 in 2010. Before the onset of the investigation period in 2006, the overflow warning water level (3.5 m) and the flood fighting corps standby water level (3.0 m) each occurred on one day in August 2004 and October 2004, respectively;at those times, the water volume exceeded 1000 m3·s-1 and 1500 m3·s-1, respectively. We suggest that because much of the estuarine tidal flat erodes when the water volume exceeds 1000 m3·sǃ, the establishment of the Suaeda maritima and Artemisia fukudo communities is delayed until sufficient substrate is formed by the deposition of new sediment. In contrast, a water level of 2 - 3 m was observed on one day each in 2005, 2007 and 2009, with average water volumes of 488.5, 566.4 and 690.1 m3·s-1, respectively. We suggest that following the repeated disturbances caused by water levels of 1 - 3 m and flow volumes of 500 - 700 m3·s-1 over the bare ground exposed after flooding and erosion, Suaeda maritima is a pioneer species that colonizes on bare ground deposited by sediment transported from upstream and the sea during high tides, and following the same level of disturbance, Artemisia fukudo is secondary colonizer that has germinated and grown on the sediment deposited on the Suaeda maritima community.展开更多
Methods of calculating the basic hydrological characteristics of a water resource assessment, as well as the planning and manage- ment of their long-term use are based upon the concept of stationarity of long-term flo...Methods of calculating the basic hydrological characteristics of a water resource assessment, as well as the planning and manage- ment of their long-term use are based upon the concept of stationarity of long-term flow fluctuations. However, data of researches by hydrologists and climatologists clearly indicate that there are long-period changes in the characteristics of precipitation and riv- er flow. This article discusses the variations of annual precipitation and fiver flow in the Ishim River Basin in Kazakhstan, based on the W, C and E classification developed by GY. Vangengeim who analyzed the long-term variability of anomalies by the num- ber of days with some form of atmospheric circulation. From this study, the largest anomaly of the macro-circulation processes was revealed, and a comparative analysis of the number of days with various forms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies was made. It was demonstrated that the nature of atmospheric circulation depends on the distribution of precipitation; however, precipitation is also highly dependent on local physiographic conditions. The analysis of anomalous precipitation during the maximum number of days of positive anomalies with various forms of atmospheric circulation was also carried out. This study presents some results t^om the preliminary analysis of annual river flow linked with forms of atmospheric circulation.展开更多
The analysis of the risk of flooding upstream from the Imboulou hydroelectric dam on the Léfini River in the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville, focused on the evolution of annual rainfall and flow in the study area d...The analysis of the risk of flooding upstream from the Imboulou hydroelectric dam on the Léfini River in the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville, focused on the evolution of annual rainfall and flow in the study area during the period from 1970 to 2020 before and after the building of the dam in 2005, by applying statistical methods. These methods were used to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution of rainfall and flow at the unique hydrometric station located at the RN2 (National Road N°2) bridge in the village of Mbouambé in the Pool region. This work has shown that rainfall is not the cause of flooding in the Léfini catchment area. The monthly flow coefficient (MFC) showed exceptional flooding from November and December onwards after the dam was built, resulting in a variability of flows, with periods of high and low water. In addition, the annual average flow (AAF) and the maximum average flow (MAF) increased after the dam was built. Maximum average flows (MAF) were higher than annual average flows (AAF) throughout the period of study (1970-2020). The annual and monthly rainfall-runoff relationship showed changes after the dam was built, particularly from 2009 and during the months of November and December. .展开更多
文摘This paper established mix regression model for simulating annual flow, in which annual runoff is auto-regression factor, precipitation, air temperature and water consumption are regression factors; we adopted 9 hypothesis climate change schemes to forecast the change of annual flow of Sanmenxia Station. The results show : (1) When temperature is steady, the average annual runoff will increase by 8.3% if precipitation increases by 10%; when precipitation decreases by 10%, the average annual runoff will decrease by 8.2%; when precipitation is steady, the average annual runoff will decrease by 2.4% if temperature increases 1℃; if temperature decreases 1℃, runoff will increase by 1.2%. The mix regression model can well simulate annual runoff. (2) As to 9 different temperature and precipitation scenarios, scenario 9 is the most adverse to the runoff of Sanmenxia Station of Yellow River; i.e. temperature increases 1℃ and precipitation decreases by 10%. Under this condition, the simulated average annual runoff decreases by 10.8%. On the contrary, scenario 1 is the best to the enhancement of runoff; i.e. when temperature decreases 1 ℃ precipitation will increase by 10%, which will make the annual runoff of Sanmenxia increase by 10.6%.
文摘On the basis of the observational data on the annual sediment transport by debris flow in recent 8 years, appling the catastrophe forecast method of Grey System Theory, this study has established the catastrophe model of the annual sediment transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully. It has forecasted the next potential catastrophic year in which the annual sediment transport will be over the catastrophic. threshold 2 million m3. Furthermore, it has introduced the 'equal dimension-new information model', which makes the forecast be done continuously.
文摘In this study, we examined the influence of changes in the degree and frequency of disturbance in estuarine tidal flats on the annual salt marsh plant communities (Suaeda maritima, Artemisia fukudo) in Mie Prefecture, Japan. Suaeda maritima and Artemisia fukudo communities occur in the branch river of the Kushida River. Although the areas occupied by these communities were very small in 2006, the Suaeda maritima community expanded significantly to 3609 m2 in 2008, and the Artemisia fukudo community expanded significantly to 2726 m2 in 2008 and 10,396 m2 in 2010. Before the onset of the investigation period in 2006, the overflow warning water level (3.5 m) and the flood fighting corps standby water level (3.0 m) each occurred on one day in August 2004 and October 2004, respectively;at those times, the water volume exceeded 1000 m3·s-1 and 1500 m3·s-1, respectively. We suggest that because much of the estuarine tidal flat erodes when the water volume exceeds 1000 m3·sǃ, the establishment of the Suaeda maritima and Artemisia fukudo communities is delayed until sufficient substrate is formed by the deposition of new sediment. In contrast, a water level of 2 - 3 m was observed on one day each in 2005, 2007 and 2009, with average water volumes of 488.5, 566.4 and 690.1 m3·s-1, respectively. We suggest that following the repeated disturbances caused by water levels of 1 - 3 m and flow volumes of 500 - 700 m3·s-1 over the bare ground exposed after flooding and erosion, Suaeda maritima is a pioneer species that colonizes on bare ground deposited by sediment transported from upstream and the sea during high tides, and following the same level of disturbance, Artemisia fukudo is secondary colonizer that has germinated and grown on the sediment deposited on the Suaeda maritima community.
基金supported by the al-Faraby Kazakh National University(KazNU)the Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science
文摘Methods of calculating the basic hydrological characteristics of a water resource assessment, as well as the planning and manage- ment of their long-term use are based upon the concept of stationarity of long-term flow fluctuations. However, data of researches by hydrologists and climatologists clearly indicate that there are long-period changes in the characteristics of precipitation and riv- er flow. This article discusses the variations of annual precipitation and fiver flow in the Ishim River Basin in Kazakhstan, based on the W, C and E classification developed by GY. Vangengeim who analyzed the long-term variability of anomalies by the num- ber of days with some form of atmospheric circulation. From this study, the largest anomaly of the macro-circulation processes was revealed, and a comparative analysis of the number of days with various forms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies was made. It was demonstrated that the nature of atmospheric circulation depends on the distribution of precipitation; however, precipitation is also highly dependent on local physiographic conditions. The analysis of anomalous precipitation during the maximum number of days of positive anomalies with various forms of atmospheric circulation was also carried out. This study presents some results t^om the preliminary analysis of annual river flow linked with forms of atmospheric circulation.
文摘The analysis of the risk of flooding upstream from the Imboulou hydroelectric dam on the Léfini River in the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville, focused on the evolution of annual rainfall and flow in the study area during the period from 1970 to 2020 before and after the building of the dam in 2005, by applying statistical methods. These methods were used to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution of rainfall and flow at the unique hydrometric station located at the RN2 (National Road N°2) bridge in the village of Mbouambé in the Pool region. This work has shown that rainfall is not the cause of flooding in the Léfini catchment area. The monthly flow coefficient (MFC) showed exceptional flooding from November and December onwards after the dam was built, resulting in a variability of flows, with periods of high and low water. In addition, the annual average flow (AAF) and the maximum average flow (MAF) increased after the dam was built. Maximum average flows (MAF) were higher than annual average flows (AAF) throughout the period of study (1970-2020). The annual and monthly rainfall-runoff relationship showed changes after the dam was built, particularly from 2009 and during the months of November and December. .
