RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ZONAL WIND ANOMALIES IN HIGH AND LOW TROPOSPHERE AND ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF NW PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated that when A U2oo- A U850 〉0 in the eastern tropical Pacific and A U2oo- A U850 〈0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.

WAVELET ANALYSIS OF INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN GUANGDONG

Climatological laws are studied for the annual frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence and the date of the yearly first landfall, which take place in the Guangdong province or pose serious threats on it from 1951 to 1999, using the data in the Yearly Book on Typhoons. A new method that has developed over recent years for the study of temporal sequences, the wavelet analysis, is used, in addition to more common statistical approaches. By analyzing two wavelet functions, MHAT and MORLET, we have compared the results of transformation of the wavelets provided that other conditions remain unchanged. It is discovered that the variance of MORLET wavelet has better indication of primary periods; period-time sequence charts can reflect major affecting periods for individual sections of time; when compared with the original sequence, the chart shows a little shift. On the other hand, such shift is absent in the MHAT wavelet, but its higher frequency part of variance covers up the primary periods to make its variance less predominant as compared to the MORLET wavelet. Besides, the work compares two different assumptions of an amplifying factor a. It is found that primary periods can be shown more clearly in the variance when a takes the exponential of 2 than it takes values continuously. Studying the annual frequency of tropical cyclones and the date of first appearance for periodic patterns, we have found that the primary periods extracted by this approach are similar to those obtained by wavelet transformation.

A new bracing system for improvement of seismic performance of steel jacket type offshore platforms with float-over-deck

In this paper, the seismic response of a newly designed steel jacket offshore platform with a float over deck （FOD） system in the Persian Gulf was investigated through incremental dynamic analysis. Comparison of incremental dynamic analysis results for both directions of the platform shows that the lateral strength of the platform in the float over direction is less than its lateral strength in other direction. Dynamic characteristics measurement of a scale model of platform was also performed using forced vibration tests. From experimental measurement of the scaled model, it was observed that dynamic characteristic of the platform is different in the float over direction compared to the other direction. Therefore, a new offshore installed bracing system for the float over direction was proposed for improvement of seismic performance of this type of platform. Finally, the structure with the modified system was assessed using the probabilistic seismic assessment method as well as experimental measurement of its dynamic characteristics. It was observed that the proposed offshore installed bracing system improves the performance of platforms subjected to strong ground motion.

Seismic collapse assessment of archetype frames with ductile concrete beam hinges

Highly ductile cement-based materials have emerged as alternatives to conventional concrete materials to improve the seismic resistance of reinforced concrete(RC)structures.While experimental and numerical research on the behavior of individual components has provided significant knowledge on element-level response,relatively little is known about how ductile cement-based materials influence system-level behavior in seismic applications.This study uses recently developed lumped-plasticity models to simulate the unique failure characteristics and ductility of reinforced ductile-cement-based materials in beam hinges and applies them in the assessment of archetype frame structures.Numerous story heights(four,eight,and twelve),frame configurations(perimeter vs.space),materials(conventional vs.ductile concrete),and replacement mechanisms within the beam hinges are considered in the seismic analysis of the archetype structures.Results and comparisons are made in terms of the probability of collapse at 2%in 50-year ground motion,mean annual frequency of collapse,and adjusted collapse margin ratio(ACMR)across archetype structures.The results show that engineered HPFRCCs in beam plastic-hinge regions can improve the seismic safety of moment frame buildings with higher collapse margin ratios,lower probability of collapse,and the ability to withstand large deformations.Data is also reported on how ductile concrete materials can reduce concrete volume and longitudinal reinforcement tonnage across frame configurations and story heights while maintaining or improving seismic resistance of the structural system.Results demonstrate future research needs to assess life-cycle costs,predict column hinge behavior,and develop code-based design methods for structural systems using highly ductile concrete materials.

Probabilistic safety assessment of self-centering steel braced frame

The main drawback of conventional braced frames is implicitly accepting structural damage under the design earthquake load, which leads to considerable economic losses. Controlled rocking self-centering system as a modem low-damage system is capable of minimizing the drawbacks of conventional braced frames. This paper quantifies main limit states and investigates the seismic performance of self-centering braced frame using a Probabilistic Safety Assessment procedure. Margin of safety, confidence level, and mean annual frequency of the self-centering archetypes for their main limit states, including PT yield, fuse fracture, and global collapse, are established and are compared with their acceptance criteria. Considering incorporating aleatory examined. Results of the investigation indicate that the provide the adequate margin of safety against exceeding and epistemic uncertainties, the efficiency of the system is design of low- and mid-rise self-centering archetypes could the undesirable limit-states.