The material mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation will change when a dam is reinforced during the aging process.This causes significant changes in the structural state of the project and makes it diffi...The material mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation will change when a dam is reinforced during the aging process.This causes significant changes in the structural state of the project and makes it difficult to ensure its structural safety.In this study,a new deformation warning index for reinforced concrete dams was developed according to the prototype monitoring data,statistical models,three-dimensional finite element model(FEM)numerical simulation,and the critical conditions of the dam structure.A statistical model was established to separate the water pressure component.Then,a three-dimensional FEM of the reinforced concrete dam was constructed to simulate the water pressure component.Furthermore,the deformation components that affected the mechanical parameters of the dam under the same amount of reservoir water level change were separated and quantified accurately.In addition,the method for inversion of comprehensive mechanical parameters after dam reinforcement was used.The influence mechanisms of the deformation behavior of concrete dams under the reservoir water level and temperature changes were investigated.A new deformation warning index was developed by combining the forward-simulated critical water pressure component and temperature component in the period of extreme temperature decrease with the aging component separated by the statistical model.The new deformation warning index considers the structural state of the dam before and after reinforcement and links the structural strength criterion and the deformation evolution mechanisms.It provides a theoretical foundation and decision support for long-term service and operation management of reinforced dams.展开更多
BACKGROUND: Glutathione, as an in vivo free radical scavenger, plays an important role in the anti-oxidation defense mechanism in patients with acute cerebral infarction. OBJECTIVE: To observe the relationship betwe...BACKGROUND: Glutathione, as an in vivo free radical scavenger, plays an important role in the anti-oxidation defense mechanism in patients with acute cerebral infarction. OBJECTIVE: To observe the relationship between the levels of glutathione (GSH) and malonaldehyde (MDA), the metabolite of lipid peroxidation, in erythrocyte and deformation index of erythrocyte in patients at various periods following acute cerebral infarction. DESIGN: Controlled observation.SETTING: Qilu Hospital of Shandong University and Institute of Cerebrovascular Disease of Qingdao Medical College. PARTICIPANTS: We chose 98 inpatients with acute cerebral infarction from Department of Neurology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January to December 2000 , serving as cerebral infarction group, including 50 male and 48 female, with mean age of (62±7)years. There were 23 cases found on the 1^st day after onset; 25 cases on the 3^rd day after onset; 25 cases on the 7^th day after onset; 25 cases on the 14th days after onset, and they were all confirmed by craniocerebral CT or MRI. Another 30 homeochronous inpatients with neurosis, cervical syndrome, lumbar intervertebral disc herniation and motor neuron disease were chosen as control group, including 20 male and 10 female, with mean age of (52±8)years . There was no significant difference in age and gender distribution between two groups (P 〉 0.05). Patients in the two groups were informed of detected index.METHODS:①Ulnar venous blood was chosen from the patients who were fasted on the 1^st, 3^rd,7^th and 14^th days after onset. Deformation index of erythrocyte was measured with BL88-CKX laser diffraction erythrocyte deformeter and photographing was performed. GSH level in erythrocyte was measured with DTNB assay introduced by Beu-tler. MDA level in erythrocyte was measured with modified thiobarbituric acid colorimetric method.②At each sample collecting , according to the criteria accepted by the Fourth National Conference of Cerebrovascular Disease, intergrant of neurologic impairment 〈 15 points was regarded as mild (n=46), 15 to 30 points as moderate (n=40)and, 〉 30 points as severe (n=12). ③ t test was used to compare data between two groups , and linear correlation analysis was used in relationship analysis among indexes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES :① Comparison of erythrocyte GSH and MDA levels and deformation index of erythrocyte at various periods between patients with acute cerebral infarction and controls. ②Correlation of erythrocyte GSH level with erythrocyte MDA level and with deformation index of erythrocyte in patients with cerebral infarction . ③ Relationship between erythrocyte GSH level and severity of disease in patients with acute cerebral infarction. RESULTS: Totally 98 patients with acute cerebral infarction and 30 controls all entered the stage of result analysis. ① Erythrocyte GSH level and deformation index of erythrocyte were lower on the 1^st, 3^rd, 7^th and 14^th days after onset in cerebral infarction group than in control group (P 〈 0.05-0.01), and erythrocyte MDA level was significantly higher in cerebral infarction group than in control group (P 〈 0.05-0.01). The three indexes changed most significantly on day 3 after onset in patients, and began to recover or decrease on day 7 after onset and inclined to be normal on day 14 after onset. ② Erythrocyte GSH level was significantly negatively correlated with erythrocyte MDA level in patients with acute cerebral infarction on the 1^st, 3^rd, 7^th and 14^th days after onset (r=-0.534, -0.713, -0.645, -0.656, respectively, P 〈 0.05-0.01 ) ,and significantly positively correlated with erythrocyte deformation index (t-=0.502, 0.560, 0.455, 0.504, respectively, P 〈 0.05). ③Erythrocyte GSH level was significantly lower in moderate or severe patients with acute cerebral infarction than in mild patients[(0.215±0.088),(0.192±0.102), (0.281±0.090) g/L, P〈 0.05]. CONCLUSION:①Erythrocyte GSH and MDA levels and deformation index of erythrocyte change significantly on the 3^rd day following acute cerebral infarction. Index detection results gradually tended to be normal on from the 7^th day to 14^th days day after onset. ② Change of erythrocyte GSH level can reflect the severity of disease of patients with acute cerebral infarction.③Decrease of erythrocyte GSH level in patients with acute cerebral infarction is one of reasons that result in the decrease of deformation ability of erythrocyte.展开更多
The deformation modulus of a rock mass is an important parameter to describe its mechanical behavior.In this study,an analytical method is developed to determine the deformation modulus of jointed rock masses,which co...The deformation modulus of a rock mass is an important parameter to describe its mechanical behavior.In this study,an analytical method is developed to determine the deformation modulus of jointed rock masses,which considers the mechanical properties of intact rocks and joints based on the superposition principle.Due to incorporating the variations in the orientations and sizes of joint sets,the proposed method is applicable to the rock mass with persistent and parallel joints as well as that with nonpersistent and nonparallel joints.In addition,an anisotropy index AIdmfor the deformation modulus is defined to quantitatively describe the anisotropy of rock masses.The range of AIdmis from 0 to 1,and the more anisotropic the rock mass is,the larger the value of AIdmwill be.To evaluate the proposed method,20 groups of numerical experiments are conducted with the universal distinct element code(UDEC).For each experimental group,the deformation modulus in 24 directions are obtained by UDEC(numerical value)and the proposed method(predicted value),and then the mean error rates are calculated.Note that the mean error rate is the mean value of the error rates of the deformation modulus in 24 directions,where for each direction,the error rate is equal to the ratio of numerical value minus predicted value to the numerical value.The results show that(i)for different experimental groups,the mean error rates vary between 5.06%and 22.03%;(ii)the error rates for the discrete fracture networks(DFNs)with two sets of joints are at the same level as those with one set of joints;and(iii)therefore,the proposed method for estimating the deformation modulus of jointed rock masses is valid.展开更多
Aim:To investigate the impact of abnormal sperm morphology using the sperm deformity index (SDI) on reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and its correlation with sperm DNA damage.Methods:Semen samples were collect...Aim:To investigate the impact of abnormal sperm morphology using the sperm deformity index (SDI) on reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and its correlation with sperm DNA damage.Methods:Semen samples were collected from men undergoing infertility screening (n=7) and healthy donors (n=6).Mature spermatozoa were isolated and incubated with 5 mmol/L β-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) for up to 24 h to induce ROS.Sperm morphology was evaluated using strict Tygerberg's criteria and the SDI.ROS levels and DNA damage were assessed using chemiluminescence and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated fluorescein- dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) assays,respectively.Results:SDI values (median [interquartiles]) were higher in patients than donors (2 [1.8,2.1] vs.1.53 [1.52,1.58],P=0.008).Aliquots treated with NADPH showed higher ROS levels (1.22 [0.30,1.87] vs.0.39 [0.10,0.57],P=0.03) and higher incidence of DNA damage than those not treated (10 [4.69,24.85] vs.3.85 [2.58,5.10],P=0.008).Higher DNA damage was also seen following 24 h of incubation in patients compared to donors.SDI correlated with the percentage increase in sperm DNA damage following incubation for 24 h in samples treated with NADPH (r=0.7,P=0.008) and controls (r=0.58,P=0.04). Conclusion:SDI may be a useful tool in identifying potential infertile males with abnormal prevalence of oxidative stress (OS)-induced DNA damage.NADPH plays a role in ROS-mediated sperm DNA damage,which appears to be more evident in infertile patients with semen samples containing a high incidence of morphologically abnormal spermatozoa.展开更多
Deformation modulus of a rock mass(E_m) is one of the most important design parameters in construction of rock engineering projects such as underground excavations.However,difficulties are frequently encountered durin...Deformation modulus of a rock mass(E_m) is one of the most important design parameters in construction of rock engineering projects such as underground excavations.However,difficulties are frequently encountered during in-situ tests which are also time-consuming and expensive for determining this parameter.Although E_m is often estimated indirectly from proposed equations by different researchers,many of these equations cannot be used in case of problematic rock conditions(thinly bedded,highly jointed rock masses,etc.) as high quality core samples are required.This study aims to explore more practical and useful equation for E_m estimation using Rock Quality Designation(RQD) and point load index values.Comparisons were made between available empirical equations and the proposed E_m equation in terms of the estimation capacity.Multiple comparison tests(ANOVA) showed that E_m can be reliably estimated using proposed equation especially at the preliminary stages of projects.展开更多
Results of triaxial compression experiment results show that granite rock strength increases with the depth until 30 km. In shallow crust, rock failure exhibits abrupt or quasi-abrupt instability under lower pressure....Results of triaxial compression experiment results show that granite rock strength increases with the depth until 30 km. In shallow crust, rock failure exhibits abrupt or quasi-abrupt instability under lower pressure. Acoustic Emission (AE for short) distributed almost uniformly before and after failure. Go through downwards into the depth range with progressive failure feature, there are no or only a few number of AE before and after failure. In deeper range, rock failure shows some feature of quasi-abrupt instability under high pressure. There are still few AE before failure, but with the stick-slip, much more An events were detected after failure. Under the temperature and pressure condition of more deep crust (about 26 km), rock failure takes abrupt instability under high pressure as main feature, there are dense AE activities before failure and cumulated frequency of AE increases exponentially before the failure. In about 35 km depth range, rock strength decreases quickly with the depth and sample exhibits semi-ductile or ductile progressive fails, there are no AE being detected before and after failure. The b value of AE sequence before failure seems a little smaller than that after failure, and b value roughly decreased with depth. The numerical range of index α is the widest in about 18 km depth and becomes narrow in the condition of more shallow or more deep crust. So, when the temperature and pressure condition simulating the real environment of focal depth changes from shallow to deep in the crust, the range of a of microfracture sequence would undergo such an evolvement process that a changes from narrow to wide and then to narrow again.展开更多
目的探讨骨质疏松性椎体压缩骨折(osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture,OVCF)术后再骨折风险,构建风险预测模型,确定有效防治措施。方法选取2021年8月至2022年6月北京积水潭医院收治的119例OVCF患者作为研究对象,根据术后再骨...目的探讨骨质疏松性椎体压缩骨折(osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture,OVCF)术后再骨折风险,构建风险预测模型,确定有效防治措施。方法选取2021年8月至2022年6月北京积水潭医院收治的119例OVCF患者作为研究对象,根据术后再骨折与否分为再发组和非再发组,其中再发组22例,男11例,女11例;年龄55~86岁,平均(72.02±5.58)岁。非再发组97例,男50例,女47例;年龄55~86岁,平均(70.79±6.81)岁。统计两组一般资料,采用Lasso-Logistic回归模型筛选OVCF术后再发骨折自变量,采用赤池信息准则(Akaike’s information criterion,AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(Bayesian information criterion,BIC)比较全变量Logistic回归、逐步Logistic、Lasso-Logistic回归预测效能,构建诺莫图模型,采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)、校准曲线分析OVCF术后再发骨折诺莫图模型效能。结果术后随访8~20个月,平均(12.00±2.40)个月。单因素分析显示,再发组身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)、骨密度T值、抗酒石酸酸性磷酸酶(tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b,TPACP-5b)、核因子kB受体激活因子配体(receptor acti-vator nuclear factor kappa B ligand,RANKL)、骨保护素(osteoprotegrin,OPG)、术后抗骨质疏松治疗、白细胞介素(interleukin,IL)-17、长期糖皮质激素使用史、脊柱畸形指数(spinal deformity index,SDI)值、手术段Cobb角、后凸角度与非再发组比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);Lasso-Logistic回归模型分析显示lambda.lse值0.049为最优模型,此时进入模型的变量涉及骨密度、SDI值、IL-17、术后抗骨质疏松治疗,经BIC、AIC验证表明所构建模型拟合和预测效果相对较好;诺莫图模型的ROC下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.865,敏感度及特异度分别为95.45%、68.04%,且校准曲线显示,其预测效能与实际吻合较好。结论OVCF术后再骨折的发生受围手术期多方面影响,涉及骨密度T值、SDI值、IL-17、术后抗骨质疏松治疗,基于以上因素可有效预测患者再骨折风险,为临床防治再骨折提供参考依据。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.52079049,U2243223,51609074,51739003,and 51579086).
文摘The material mechanical parameters of the dam body and foundation will change when a dam is reinforced during the aging process.This causes significant changes in the structural state of the project and makes it difficult to ensure its structural safety.In this study,a new deformation warning index for reinforced concrete dams was developed according to the prototype monitoring data,statistical models,three-dimensional finite element model(FEM)numerical simulation,and the critical conditions of the dam structure.A statistical model was established to separate the water pressure component.Then,a three-dimensional FEM of the reinforced concrete dam was constructed to simulate the water pressure component.Furthermore,the deformation components that affected the mechanical parameters of the dam under the same amount of reservoir water level change were separated and quantified accurately.In addition,the method for inversion of comprehensive mechanical parameters after dam reinforcement was used.The influence mechanisms of the deformation behavior of concrete dams under the reservoir water level and temperature changes were investigated.A new deformation warning index was developed by combining the forward-simulated critical water pressure component and temperature component in the period of extreme temperature decrease with the aging component separated by the statistical model.The new deformation warning index considers the structural state of the dam before and after reinforcement and links the structural strength criterion and the deformation evolution mechanisms.It provides a theoretical foundation and decision support for long-term service and operation management of reinforced dams.
文摘BACKGROUND: Glutathione, as an in vivo free radical scavenger, plays an important role in the anti-oxidation defense mechanism in patients with acute cerebral infarction. OBJECTIVE: To observe the relationship between the levels of glutathione (GSH) and malonaldehyde (MDA), the metabolite of lipid peroxidation, in erythrocyte and deformation index of erythrocyte in patients at various periods following acute cerebral infarction. DESIGN: Controlled observation.SETTING: Qilu Hospital of Shandong University and Institute of Cerebrovascular Disease of Qingdao Medical College. PARTICIPANTS: We chose 98 inpatients with acute cerebral infarction from Department of Neurology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January to December 2000 , serving as cerebral infarction group, including 50 male and 48 female, with mean age of (62±7)years. There were 23 cases found on the 1^st day after onset; 25 cases on the 3^rd day after onset; 25 cases on the 7^th day after onset; 25 cases on the 14th days after onset, and they were all confirmed by craniocerebral CT or MRI. Another 30 homeochronous inpatients with neurosis, cervical syndrome, lumbar intervertebral disc herniation and motor neuron disease were chosen as control group, including 20 male and 10 female, with mean age of (52±8)years . There was no significant difference in age and gender distribution between two groups (P 〉 0.05). Patients in the two groups were informed of detected index.METHODS:①Ulnar venous blood was chosen from the patients who were fasted on the 1^st, 3^rd,7^th and 14^th days after onset. Deformation index of erythrocyte was measured with BL88-CKX laser diffraction erythrocyte deformeter and photographing was performed. GSH level in erythrocyte was measured with DTNB assay introduced by Beu-tler. MDA level in erythrocyte was measured with modified thiobarbituric acid colorimetric method.②At each sample collecting , according to the criteria accepted by the Fourth National Conference of Cerebrovascular Disease, intergrant of neurologic impairment 〈 15 points was regarded as mild (n=46), 15 to 30 points as moderate (n=40)and, 〉 30 points as severe (n=12). ③ t test was used to compare data between two groups , and linear correlation analysis was used in relationship analysis among indexes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES :① Comparison of erythrocyte GSH and MDA levels and deformation index of erythrocyte at various periods between patients with acute cerebral infarction and controls. ②Correlation of erythrocyte GSH level with erythrocyte MDA level and with deformation index of erythrocyte in patients with cerebral infarction . ③ Relationship between erythrocyte GSH level and severity of disease in patients with acute cerebral infarction. RESULTS: Totally 98 patients with acute cerebral infarction and 30 controls all entered the stage of result analysis. ① Erythrocyte GSH level and deformation index of erythrocyte were lower on the 1^st, 3^rd, 7^th and 14^th days after onset in cerebral infarction group than in control group (P 〈 0.05-0.01), and erythrocyte MDA level was significantly higher in cerebral infarction group than in control group (P 〈 0.05-0.01). The three indexes changed most significantly on day 3 after onset in patients, and began to recover or decrease on day 7 after onset and inclined to be normal on day 14 after onset. ② Erythrocyte GSH level was significantly negatively correlated with erythrocyte MDA level in patients with acute cerebral infarction on the 1^st, 3^rd, 7^th and 14^th days after onset (r=-0.534, -0.713, -0.645, -0.656, respectively, P 〈 0.05-0.01 ) ,and significantly positively correlated with erythrocyte deformation index (t-=0.502, 0.560, 0.455, 0.504, respectively, P 〈 0.05). ③Erythrocyte GSH level was significantly lower in moderate or severe patients with acute cerebral infarction than in mild patients[(0.215±0.088),(0.192±0.102), (0.281±0.090) g/L, P〈 0.05]. CONCLUSION:①Erythrocyte GSH and MDA levels and deformation index of erythrocyte change significantly on the 3^rd day following acute cerebral infarction. Index detection results gradually tended to be normal on from the 7^th day to 14^th days day after onset. ② Change of erythrocyte GSH level can reflect the severity of disease of patients with acute cerebral infarction.③Decrease of erythrocyte GSH level in patients with acute cerebral infarction is one of reasons that result in the decrease of deformation ability of erythrocyte.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFE0119500 and 2018YFC1505005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41972264)。
文摘The deformation modulus of a rock mass is an important parameter to describe its mechanical behavior.In this study,an analytical method is developed to determine the deformation modulus of jointed rock masses,which considers the mechanical properties of intact rocks and joints based on the superposition principle.Due to incorporating the variations in the orientations and sizes of joint sets,the proposed method is applicable to the rock mass with persistent and parallel joints as well as that with nonpersistent and nonparallel joints.In addition,an anisotropy index AIdmfor the deformation modulus is defined to quantitatively describe the anisotropy of rock masses.The range of AIdmis from 0 to 1,and the more anisotropic the rock mass is,the larger the value of AIdmwill be.To evaluate the proposed method,20 groups of numerical experiments are conducted with the universal distinct element code(UDEC).For each experimental group,the deformation modulus in 24 directions are obtained by UDEC(numerical value)and the proposed method(predicted value),and then the mean error rates are calculated.Note that the mean error rate is the mean value of the error rates of the deformation modulus in 24 directions,where for each direction,the error rate is equal to the ratio of numerical value minus predicted value to the numerical value.The results show that(i)for different experimental groups,the mean error rates vary between 5.06%and 22.03%;(ii)the error rates for the discrete fracture networks(DFNs)with two sets of joints are at the same level as those with one set of joints;and(iii)therefore,the proposed method for estimating the deformation modulus of jointed rock masses is valid.
文摘Aim:To investigate the impact of abnormal sperm morphology using the sperm deformity index (SDI) on reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and its correlation with sperm DNA damage.Methods:Semen samples were collected from men undergoing infertility screening (n=7) and healthy donors (n=6).Mature spermatozoa were isolated and incubated with 5 mmol/L β-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) for up to 24 h to induce ROS.Sperm morphology was evaluated using strict Tygerberg's criteria and the SDI.ROS levels and DNA damage were assessed using chemiluminescence and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated fluorescein- dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) assays,respectively.Results:SDI values (median [interquartiles]) were higher in patients than donors (2 [1.8,2.1] vs.1.53 [1.52,1.58],P=0.008).Aliquots treated with NADPH showed higher ROS levels (1.22 [0.30,1.87] vs.0.39 [0.10,0.57],P=0.03) and higher incidence of DNA damage than those not treated (10 [4.69,24.85] vs.3.85 [2.58,5.10],P=0.008).Higher DNA damage was also seen following 24 h of incubation in patients compared to donors.SDI correlated with the percentage increase in sperm DNA damage following incubation for 24 h in samples treated with NADPH (r=0.7,P=0.008) and controls (r=0.58,P=0.04). Conclusion:SDI may be a useful tool in identifying potential infertile males with abnormal prevalence of oxidative stress (OS)-induced DNA damage.NADPH plays a role in ROS-mediated sperm DNA damage,which appears to be more evident in infertile patients with semen samples containing a high incidence of morphologically abnormal spermatozoa.
基金the Karadeniz Technical University (KTU)for funding this work through the research(No.9706)
文摘Deformation modulus of a rock mass(E_m) is one of the most important design parameters in construction of rock engineering projects such as underground excavations.However,difficulties are frequently encountered during in-situ tests which are also time-consuming and expensive for determining this parameter.Although E_m is often estimated indirectly from proposed equations by different researchers,many of these equations cannot be used in case of problematic rock conditions(thinly bedded,highly jointed rock masses,etc.) as high quality core samples are required.This study aims to explore more practical and useful equation for E_m estimation using Rock Quality Designation(RQD) and point load index values.Comparisons were made between available empirical equations and the proposed E_m equation in terms of the estimation capacity.Multiple comparison tests(ANOVA) showed that E_m can be reliably estimated using proposed equation especially at the preliminary stages of projects.
基金CSB!Project 95-04-02-01Natural Foundation of Shandong Province!Project Y97E02079fund of Laboratory of Tectonophysics, CS
文摘Results of triaxial compression experiment results show that granite rock strength increases with the depth until 30 km. In shallow crust, rock failure exhibits abrupt or quasi-abrupt instability under lower pressure. Acoustic Emission (AE for short) distributed almost uniformly before and after failure. Go through downwards into the depth range with progressive failure feature, there are no or only a few number of AE before and after failure. In deeper range, rock failure shows some feature of quasi-abrupt instability under high pressure. There are still few AE before failure, but with the stick-slip, much more An events were detected after failure. Under the temperature and pressure condition of more deep crust (about 26 km), rock failure takes abrupt instability under high pressure as main feature, there are dense AE activities before failure and cumulated frequency of AE increases exponentially before the failure. In about 35 km depth range, rock strength decreases quickly with the depth and sample exhibits semi-ductile or ductile progressive fails, there are no AE being detected before and after failure. The b value of AE sequence before failure seems a little smaller than that after failure, and b value roughly decreased with depth. The numerical range of index α is the widest in about 18 km depth and becomes narrow in the condition of more shallow or more deep crust. So, when the temperature and pressure condition simulating the real environment of focal depth changes from shallow to deep in the crust, the range of a of microfracture sequence would undergo such an evolvement process that a changes from narrow to wide and then to narrow again.
文摘目的探讨骨质疏松性椎体压缩骨折(osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture,OVCF)术后再骨折风险,构建风险预测模型,确定有效防治措施。方法选取2021年8月至2022年6月北京积水潭医院收治的119例OVCF患者作为研究对象,根据术后再骨折与否分为再发组和非再发组,其中再发组22例,男11例,女11例;年龄55~86岁,平均(72.02±5.58)岁。非再发组97例,男50例,女47例;年龄55~86岁,平均(70.79±6.81)岁。统计两组一般资料,采用Lasso-Logistic回归模型筛选OVCF术后再发骨折自变量,采用赤池信息准则(Akaike’s information criterion,AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(Bayesian information criterion,BIC)比较全变量Logistic回归、逐步Logistic、Lasso-Logistic回归预测效能,构建诺莫图模型,采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)、校准曲线分析OVCF术后再发骨折诺莫图模型效能。结果术后随访8~20个月,平均(12.00±2.40)个月。单因素分析显示,再发组身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)、骨密度T值、抗酒石酸酸性磷酸酶(tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b,TPACP-5b)、核因子kB受体激活因子配体(receptor acti-vator nuclear factor kappa B ligand,RANKL)、骨保护素(osteoprotegrin,OPG)、术后抗骨质疏松治疗、白细胞介素(interleukin,IL)-17、长期糖皮质激素使用史、脊柱畸形指数(spinal deformity index,SDI)值、手术段Cobb角、后凸角度与非再发组比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);Lasso-Logistic回归模型分析显示lambda.lse值0.049为最优模型,此时进入模型的变量涉及骨密度、SDI值、IL-17、术后抗骨质疏松治疗,经BIC、AIC验证表明所构建模型拟合和预测效果相对较好;诺莫图模型的ROC下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.865,敏感度及特异度分别为95.45%、68.04%,且校准曲线显示,其预测效能与实际吻合较好。结论OVCF术后再骨折的发生受围手术期多方面影响,涉及骨密度T值、SDI值、IL-17、术后抗骨质疏松治疗,基于以上因素可有效预测患者再骨折风险,为临床防治再骨折提供参考依据。