Terrestrial Temperature, Sea Levels and Ice Area Links with Solar Activity and Solar Orbital Motion

This paper explores the links between terrestrial temperature, sea levels and ice areas in both hemispheres with solar activity indices expressed through averaged sunspot numbers together with the summary curve of eigenvectors of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and with changes of Sun-Earth distances caused by solar inertial motion resulting from the gravitation of large planets in the solar system. Using the wavelet analysis of the GLB and HadCRUTS datasets two periods: 21.4 and 36 years in GLB, set and the period of about 19.6 years in the HadCRUTS are discovered. The 21.4-year period is associated with variations in solar activity defined by the summary curve of the largest eigenvectors of the SBMF. A dominant 21.4-year period is also reported in the variations of the sea level, which is linked with the period of 21.4 years detected in the GLB temperature and the summary curve of the SBMF variations. The wavelet analysis of ice and snow areas shows that in the Southern hemisphere, it does not show any links to solar activity periods while in the Northern hemisphere, the ice area reveals a period of 10.7 years equal to a usual solar activity cycle. The TSI in March-August of every year is found to grow with every year following closely the temperature curve, because the Sun moves closer to the Earth orbit owing to gravitation of large planets (solar inertial motion, SIM), while the variations of solar radiation during a whole year have more steady distribution without a sharp TSI increase during the last two centuries. The additional TSI contribution caused by SIM is likely to secure the additional energy input and exchange between the ocean and atmosphere.

Projection of the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.

Prediction of China's Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001),and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data,the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century.Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period.The total flooding areas are 98.3×103and 104.9×103km2for 2050 and 2080,respectively.For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise,i.e.,the coast of Bohai Bay,the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province,and the Pearl River Delta,the flooded areas are 5.0×103,64.1×103and 15.3×103km2in 2050 and 5.2×103,67.8×103and 17.2×103km2in 2080,respectively.

Effect of Sea Level Rise and Groundwater Withdrawal on Seawater Intrusion in the Gulf Coast Aquifer: Implications for Agriculture

The two main factors contributing to depletion of freshwater resources are climate change and anthropological variables. This study presents statistical analyses that are local in its specifics yet global in its relevance. The decline in Gulf Coast aquifer water quality and quantity has been alarming especially with the increased demand on fresh water in neighboring non-coastal communities. This study used seawater levels, groundwater use, and well data to investigate the association of these factors on the salinity of water indicated by chloride levels. Statistical analyses were conducted pointing to the high significance of both sea water level and groundwater withdrawals to chloride concentrations. However, groundwater withdrawal had higher significance which points to the need of water management systems in order to limit groundwater use. The findings also point to the great impact of increased groundwater salinity in the Gulf Coast aquifer on agriculture and socioeconomic status of coastal communities. The high costs of desalinization point to the increased signification of water rerouting and groundwater management systems. Further investigation and actions are in dire need to manage these vulnerabilities of the coastal communities.

EFFECT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON DISASTROUS FLOODS IN THE TAIHU LAKE LOWER REACH DEPRESSIONS AND COUNTERMEASURES

Use of numerical simulation of the tidal flow of the Changjiang River Estuary and the HuangpuRiver to forecast flood in the Taihu Lake lower reach drainage system for the case of future sea level riseof 0.4 m and 0.8 m,and floods preventing and reducing methods are discussed in this paper.

Characteristics and possible causes of sea level anomalies in the Xisha sea area

Based on the analysis of wind,ocean currents,sea surface temperature（SST） and remote sensing satellite altimeter data,the characteristics and possible causes of sea level anomalies in the Xisha sea area are investigated.The main results are shown as follows：（1） Since 1993,the sea level in the Xisha sea area was obviously higher than normal in 1998,2001,2008,2010 and 2013.Especially,the sea level in 1998 and 2010 was abnormally high,and the sea level in 2010 was 13.2 cm higher than the muti-year mean,which was the highest in the history.In 2010,the sea level in the Xisha sea area had risen 43 cm from June to August,with the strength twice the annual variation range.（2） The sea level in the Xisha sea area was not only affected by the tidal force of the celestial bodies,but also closely related to the quasi 2 a periodic oscillation of tropical western Pacific monsoon and ENSO events.（3）There was a significant negative correlation between sea level in the Xisha sea area and ENSO events.The high sea level anomaly all happened during the developing phase of La Ni-a.They also show significant negative correlations with Ni-o 4 and Ni-o 3.4 indices,and the lag correlation coefficients for 2 months and 3 months are–0.46 and –0.45,respectively.（4） During the early La Ni-a event form June to November in 2010,the anomalous wind field was cyclonic.A strong clockwise vortex was formed for the current in 25 m layer in the Xisha sea area,and the velocity of the current is close to the speed of the Kuroshio near the Luzon Strait.In normal years,there is a “cool eddy”.While in 2010,from July to August,the SST in the area was 2–3°C higher than that of the same period in the history.

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Areas to the West of the Bohai Bay

Based on the assumption of global sea level rising between 30 and 100 cm in the future 100 years by IPCC (1990) in addition to the effect of local ground subsidence, the coastline will retrograde for 50-70 km whose altitudes will be 2.6-3 .3m above MSL of Huanghai Sea in the western coastal area of the Bohai bay in 2100. The transgrassive area is about 10,000-11 ,500 km. If the effect of set-up of storm surge is considered, the transgressive area will reach 16,000 km. Sea level rise which is a serious coastal disaster not only inundates a lot of coastal lowland, but also increases the frequency and intensity of storm tides, and results in the salinization of soils. In vies of this situation we recommend a trinity comprehensive measure of treatment, namely, "building seawall to prevent tides-diverting the Hunaghe River to settle its sediment loads -raising the constructional base".

Modern sea level changes of the Eastern China Seas and their influences on coastal areas

The statistics of tidal gauging records showed that the mean sea level of the China Seas has risen for 14 cm in past 100 years. The annual mean sea levels of the Eastern China Seas have been rising at a speed of about 0.21 -0.23 cm/a since 1960. The annual mean sea levels of the Eastern China Seas in 1989 were 1.45 cm higher than that in 1988 on average.The sea level rise may cause the damage of the dynamical balance of the natural environments in the coastal area? and form or strengthen many coastal disasters, such as storm-tide catastrophic events, sea water invasion landward, soil salinization in coastal lowland and plains, and beach erosion retreat.

Adaptation strategy for sea level rise in vulnerable areasalong China's coast

It can be seen from the calculation that the vulnerable area along China's coast in which the elevation is less than 5 m, is 143 900 km2, accounting for about 11. 3% of the total area of the 11 coastal provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. These areas are threatened to varying extent by sea level rise. According to prediction, the relative sea level rise (including global sea level rise caused by climate change and local relative as level rise caused by vertical crust movement and ground subsidence) along China's coast will be 4～16 cm by the year 2030 with the optimum estimated value of 6～14cm. It will be 9～26 cm by the year 2050 with the optimum estimated value of 12-23 cm. And it will be 31-74 cm by the year 2100 with the optimum estimated value of 47～65 cm. The calcuation result shows that the percentage of the cost for up-grading (heightening and consolidating) sea dykes/walls in adaptation strategy in the losses of submerged areas varies from area to area: 6. 9% in the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Deta, 1. 3% ～24. 6% in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Delta, and 0. 9%～2. 0% in the Huanghe River Delta.

RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES IN CHINAS COASTAL AREAS

Due to global climate warming and natural and man-made land subsidence etc., relative sea level rise in the coastal plains of China will exceed 2-3 times over the golbal mean value during the first half part of the 21st century. It will result in a series of adverse impacts on evolution of natural environment and socioeconomic development of the coastal area. This paper analyses environmental and resource effects induced by relative sea level rise in China's coastal areas on the basis of rough estimate of future relative sea level rise. These effects include inundating tidal flat and wetlands and increase in inundated risk of coastal habitable land,exacerbating storm surge. coastal erosion, flooding and salt water intrusion hazards.as well as endangering land. water. tourism and living resources and their utilization.

Groundwater level prediction of landslide based on classification and regression tree

According to groundwater level monitoring data of Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, based on the response relationship between influential factors such as rainfall and reservoir level and the change of groundwater level, the influential factors of groundwater level were selected. Then the classification and regression tree（CART） model was constructed by the subset and used to predict the groundwater level. Through the verification, the predictive results of the test sample were consistent with the actually measured values, and the mean absolute error and relative error is 0.28 m and 1.15%respectively. To compare the support vector machine（SVM） model constructed using the same set of factors, the mean absolute error and relative error of predicted results is 1.53 m and 6.11% respectively. It is indicated that CART model has not only better fitting and generalization ability, but also strong advantages in the analysis of landslide groundwater dynamic characteristics and the screening of important variables. It is an effective method for prediction of ground water level in landslides.

Co-seismic changes of well water level and volume strain meter in capital area and its vicinity,due to the Nov.14,2001 Ms8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake,China

The Kunlunshan Mountain Ms8.1 earthquake, occurred in Nov.14, 2001, is the first event with magnitude more than 8 in the China earthquake monitoring history, specifically at the beginning of digital techniques in precursor monitoring networks. Any investigation of recorded data on this earthquake is very important for testing the operation of the digital monitoring networks and understanding the preparation, occurrence, and adjustment of stress/strain of strong continental earthquakes. In this paper we investigated the coseismic response changes of well water level of groundwater and volume strain meter of bore hole in digital earthquake monitoring network of Capital area and its vicinity, due to the Nov.14, 2001 Ms8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake. The responding time, shapes or manners, amplitudes, and lasting time of well water level and strain-meters to seismic wave are studied in comparison. Then we discussed the possibility that the response changes of groundwater to strong distant earthquakes can be understood as one kind of observing evidence of stress/strain changes induced by distant earthquake.

Assessing the Impacts of Sea Level Rise Using Existing Data

Local communities want to know the cost of improvements needed to their drainage system based on projected sea level rise. Prior research demonstrates that in coastal areas, groundwater will rise with sea level. As a result the combination of groundwater levels and tidal data must be used to predict local impacts of sea level rise on the drainage system. However, it would appear to complicate the situation if the amount of data available for making sea level rise projections with groundwater is limited. The objectives of this task were to identify available data in a data limited community, compare the available data, assess the impact of sea level rise on the community, and its impact on the stormwater system, identify vulnerable areas in the City, provide an estimate of long-term costs for improvements, and provide a toolbox of strategies to employ at the appropriate time. The project was conducted using ArcGIS tools to import tidal, groundwater, topographic LiDAR and infrastructure improvements into GIS software and performing analysis based on current data. The cost of improvements was based on applying actual 2015 construction costs in the subject comments across a larger vulnerable area. It was found that the data sources provided similar results, despite different timelines and dates so did not interfere with the subsequent analysis. The data revealed that over $400 million in current dollars might be needed to address stormwater issues arising from sea level rise before 2100.

Economic Valuation of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Agricultural Sector: Damietta Governorate, Egypt

The Nile Delta is considered to be one of the most vulnerable river deltas to Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the world. SLR is expected to affect large agricultural areas of the Nile Delta, either through inundation or higher levels and salinity of groundwater. It could be argued that such impacts would augment the problems experienced already in the area in terms of high groundwater table and salinity levels. In order to guide policy and decision making, especially in terms of assessing the economics of various adaptation options, there is a need to provide estimates of potential economic damage that could result from such changes. The paper in hand aims to estimate the economic value of potential primary impacts of higher levels of groundwater table due to expected SLR on agriculture productivity in Damietta Governorate as one of the Nile Delta coastal governorates. To conduct such an assessment, relationship between groundwater table level and agricultural productivity was first investigated in relevant literature. This was followed by reviewing prevailing conditions in the agricultural sector in the study area. Thereafter, a regression analysis for the main crops in the study area, between crop yield and groundwater table levels, was conducted. Based on the developed regression, a GIS (Geographic Information System)-based hydrological model, and a production economic model, were employed to assess economic value of higher levels of groundwater table impacts on agriculture productivity. It was found that future accumulative crop yield loss was estimated, using segmented linear regression, up to the year 2100 to be as much as L.E. 6.43 billion. It is worth mentioning that these estimates do not include indirect impacts of higher levels of groundwater table, which may include loss of jobs and/or earnings, impacts on food supply and food security in the area. A potential adaptation option, namely redesigning and upgrading existing drainage infrastructure, was found to cost a total of L.E. 190.8 million, representing about 4.5% of the estimated accumulative potential damage to agricultural productivity up to the year 2100.

Attribution analysis of groundwater level fluctuation in the Xinxiang section of the Lower Yellow River's suspended river after the construction of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir

The clear identification and quantification of the factors affecting groundwater systems is crucial for protecting groundwater resources and ensuring safety in agricultural production.The Lower Yellow River(LYR)is a suspended river that replenishes groundwater continuously due to clear differences in the water head,especially in the Xinxiang section.Since its construction,the Xiaolangdi Reservoir has reversed the LYR’s deposition.To accurately determine the factors influencing the groundwater level(GWL),the study area was divided into five subzones based on hydrogeology.A dynamic factor model(DFM),variational mode decomposition(VMD),and a multiple linear regression model were used to identify and quantify the factors influencing the GWL.The impact of the suspended river on the groundwater before and after the construction of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir was examined.The results show that:(1)The rate of decrease in the GWL was 8.53×10^(–4)m/month,and the rate of decrease in the Yellow River water level(RWL)was 4.63×10^(–4)m/month.(2)Mountain front recharge(MFR)(scale=3 months)and precipitation(scale=9 months)were the dominant factors in subzones I and II,accounting for more than 40%of the fluctuation in the GWL.Subzone III was dominated by exploitation(scale=7 months)and precipitation(scale=12months),accounting for 28.43%,and 23.44%of changes in the GWL,respectively.In subzone IV,agricultural irrigation(scale=12 months)was the major factor,accounting for32.47%of GWL changes,while in subzone V,the RWL(scale=12 months)accounted for52.52%of these changes.(3)The Xiaolangdi Reservoir has increased the lateral seepage of the suspended river and altered the inter-annual distribution.The results of this study can provide a valuable reference for controlling groundwater overexploitation and ensuring water supply security.

The Land Subsidence and Relative Sea Level Rise in Chinese Delta Areas

Based on some experts’ research effort, the problems of land subsidence and relative sea level rise in three Chinese delta areas (Huanghe, Changjiang and Zhujiang Delta) are analyzed and discussed in this paper. The authors’ opinion is that the land subsidence is mainly induced by human activity and has made the greater contributions to the relative sea level rise and become one of the geological hazards in these areas. In Tianjin and Shanghai areas where had ever existed serious land subsidence problem, due to the positive and effective control methods, the ratio of man-induced land subsidence to relative sea level rise decreased from 80%-90% in 1960s-1970s to less than 60% at present. But it is estimated that in the next tens of years this ratio will still be considerable. So human being must keep its eyes on this phenomenon and take more positive countermeasures to control the land subsidence.

Impact of coal mining on groundwater of Luohe Formation in Binchang mining area

Groundwater of Luohe Formation is the main water source for industrial and agricultural and residential use in Binchang mining area,which is one of the key elements to water conservation coal mining.However,few studies are available to document the enrichment characteristics and influence of underground coal mining on groundwater for the Luohe Formation.This study evaluates the changes of groundwater levels and spring flow caused by mining activities to explore the influence mechanism of coal mining on groundwater by comparatively analysing existing mining data and survey data combined with a series of mapping methods.The results show that the aquifer of Luohe Formation are gradually thinning south-eastwards,disappeared at the mining boundary.In the vertical direction,the lithological structure is distinct,due to alternative sedimentation of meandering river facies and braided river facies.According to the yielding property,the aquifer is divided into three sections,namely,strong water-rich section,medium water-rich section,and weak water-rich section,which are located in northwest and central part,southwest,and the rest part of the mining area,respectively.Mining of Tingnan Coal Mine since 2004 has caused a 3.16 to 194.87 meters drop in groundwater level of Luohe Formation.Until 2015,70.10%of the mining area undergoes a groundwater level drop larger than 10.00 meters.Another influence of underground mining is that the total flow from 34 springs in 8 southern coal mines of the area has decreased by 286.48 L/s with a rate of decrease at 46.95%from 2007 to 2017.The areas that groundwater level falls or spring flow declines are manly located in the mine gob areas.Results also indicate that the ratio of the height of water conducted fracture zone to the mining height in Binchang mining area is between 16.85 and 27.92.This may increase ground water flow in vertical direction,causing a water level in the aquifer system to drop and ultimately decreasing the flow from the springs.The research results will provide data and theoretical support for the protection of groundwater resources and water conservation coal mining of Luohe Formation in Binchang mining area.

Specific yield of phreatic variation zone in karst aquifer with the method of water level analysis

Regime of groundwater level is a comprehensive reflection of the hydrogeological environment from the perspective of groundwater. Based on the analysis of the water-level change of 65 groundwater monitoring points from 1987 to 1990, it is found that intermittent cones of depression came into being due to groundwater exploitation in Guilin during the observation period. The buried depth of groundwater in the drawdown cones, the annual variation of water level and specific yield have higher values. Improvement has been made to the formula of infiltration coefficient of precipitation. By using the precipitation response data recorded at every 15 minutes for water level of No. 9 borehole which is near Zengpiyan Cave, the specific yield of phreatic variation zone is indirectly calculated by using the modified formula. The results are range from 0.012 to 0.462 and the spatial distribution of specific yield is ascertained. These make up the deficiency that empirical values cannot be categorized based on the actual conditions. What’s more, the widely used Aviriyanover’s empirical formula is poorly applicable to karst area. This is due to its strict requirement for outside conditions, such as shallow buried depth, homogeneous aquifer medium and small hydraulic gradient.