Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China

The increasing shortage in water resources is a key factor affecting sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC). Water shortages also affect the stability of the region's oasis ecosystem. This paper summarizes the hydrological processes and water cycle of inland river basins in the ARNC, focusing on the following aspects: the spatial-temporal features of water resources(including air water vapor resources, runoff, and glacial meltwater) and their driving forces; the characteristics of streamflow composition in the inland river basins; the characteristics and main controlling factors of baseflow in the inland rivers; and anticipated future changes in hydrological processes and water resources. The results indicate that:(1) although the runoff in most inland rivers in the ARNC showed a significant increasing trend, both the glaciated area and glacial ice reserves have been reduced in the mountains;(2) snow melt and glacier melt are extremely important hydrological processes in the ARNC, especially in the Kunlun and Tianshan mountains;(3) baseflow in the inland rivers of the ARNC is the result of climate change and human activities, with the main driving factors being the reduction in forest area and the over-exploitation and utilization of groundwater in the river basins; and(4) the contradictions among water resources, ecology and economy will further increase in the future. The findings of this study might also help strengthen the ecological, economic and social sustainable development in the study region.

Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China

Water is a key restricting factor of the economic development and eco-environmental protection in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Although water supplies are short, the water utilization structure and the corresponding industrial structure are unbalanced. We constructed a System Dynamic Model for mutual optimization based on the mechanism of their interaction. This model is applied to the Heihe River Basin where the share of limited water resources among ecosystem, production and human living is optimized. Results show that, by mutual optimization, the water utilization structure and the industrial structures fit in with each other. And the relationships between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin can be harmonized. Mutual benefits of ecology, society and economy can be reached, and a sustainable ecology-production-living system can be obtained. This study gives a new insight and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

西北干旱地区水资源-城市化复合系统耦合效应研究——以石羊河流域为例

水资源短缺是西北干旱地区经济、社会、生态可持续发展的“瓶颈”，定量地分析城市化系统与水资源系统交互作用、耦合机理以及演变规律，对城市化的快速推进和水资源可持续利用具有重要的意义。以典型的西北干旱内陆河流域石羊河流域为例，提出水资源-城市化复合系统耦合度计算模型，构建了耦合度评价指标体系和各项评价因子分级标准，方法简单，可操作性强。结果表明：2001-2010年石羊河流域主要行政区金昌和武威两市，流域水资源承载力在0．22～0．26之间波动，逐年下降，处于准不可承载状态；城市化系统与水资源系统呈初级关联状态，关联度年均增长率分别为-4．28％和-3．53％；水资源对城市化进程的约束强度均大于0．6，属于极强约束，约束度略呈减弱趋势；金昌，武威两市水资源系统与城市化系统距优度均低于0．6，呈从濒临衰退阶段向初级协调阶段发展的微弱态势，年均增长率分别为2．01％和0．96％。由于研究区水资源匮乏，开发程度高，利用效率低，用水结构不合理，导致整个流域水资源与城市化复合系统耦合度介于初级耦合和拮抗状态之间，水资源对城市发展构成极强约束；将研究区水资源及其利用状况与严重干旱缺水的中东国家以色列进行对比，认为石羊河流域水资源承载力还有一定的潜力，并提出我国西北干旱地区水资源管理与调控的有关建议。

西北内陆干旱区河流绿色走廊湿地景观格局变化及其生态效应研究——以车尔臣河下游为例

应用“3S”技术，通过选取景观的多样性、优势度、破碎度和斑块形状等空间格局指数对车尔臣河下游绿色走廊1975～2007年近32a问湿地景观格局变化进行研究，并对景观格局变化产生的生态效应进行了分析。结果表明：1975—2000年，湿地面积与斑块数量小幅度增大；2000～2007年，湿地面积与斑块数量大幅度减小，斑块平均面积与斑块密度持续减小，斑块形状趋于复杂，景观格局的多样性减小，优势度与破碎化程度增大。在各湿地类型中，河流湿地面积变化幅度较小，湖泊湿地面积大幅度增大，沼泽湿地面积大幅度减小。

西北干旱区近50年气候变化对出山径流的影响分析——以黑河流域为例

对黑河上游山区1956—2004a祁连站气温与降水数据、莺落峡水文站出山径流进行各季年均值变化分析、基于MathCAD对气温和降水分别与出山径流的关系进行相关分析,发现近50a黑河流域气温与降水的变化没有显著的相关性,降水变化与径流的变化表现出正相关,而气温与径流则没有相关性。近50a降水各季变化没有一致性,却出现一定的规律,即春季持平,夏秋下降,而冬季增加。相对于降水而言,气温变化则表现出各季之间的一致性趋势,即近10a表现出明显的增温趋势,而且增温幅度相似,都在2℃左右。另外对气温与降水对出山径流的影响做了量化,降水与径流的相关系数为0.557,而气温与径流的相关系数只有0.045左右;根据影响径流的气候因子所占权重,集成气候(无量纲)变化曲线,显示出与径流变化的一致性,即气候变化对径流变化有明显的影响;依据本文分析和总结,预计今后10—20a气温、降水都将有升高或增加趋势,届时出山径流将相应增加。