Spatiotemporal variability of rain-on-snow events in the arid region of Northwest China

Rain-on-snow(ROS)events involve rainfall on snow surfaces,and the occurrence of ROS events can exacerbate water scarcity and ecosystem vulnerability in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC).In this study,using daily snow depth data and daily meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations provided by the China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Information Centre,we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of ROS events in the ARNC from 1978 to 2015 and examined the factors affecting these events and possible changes of future ROS events in the ARNC.The results showed that ROS events in the ARNC mainly occurred from October to May of the following year and were largely distributed in the Qilian Mountains,Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng Prefecture,and Altay Prefecture,with the Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains exhibiting the most occurrences.Based on the intensity of ROS events,the areas with the highest risk of flooding resulting from ROS events in the ARNC were the Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains.The number and intensity of ROS events in the ARNC largely increased from 1978 to 2015,mainly influenced by air temperature and the number of rainfall days.However,due to the snowpack abundance in areas experiencing frequent ROS events in the ARNC,snowpack changes exerted slight impact on ROS events,which is a temporary phenomenon.Furthermore,elevation imposed lesser impact on ROS events in the ARNC than other factors.In the ARNC,the start time of rainfall and the end time of snowpack gradually advanced from the spring of the current year to the winter of the previous year,while the end time of rainfall and the start time of snowpack gradually delayed from autumn to winter.This may lead to more ROS events in winter in the future.These results could provide a sound basis for managing water resources and mitigating related disasters caused by ROS events in the ARNC.

Analysis on the Correlated Characteristics between Spring Precipitation in the Arid Region of Northwest China and Global Sea Surface Temperature

[Objective] The research aimed to study the correlated characteristics between spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China and global sea surface temperature. [Method] Based on GPCP global monthly precipitation data and NOAA ERSST sea surface temperature data during 1979-2008, the precipitation characteristics in the arid region of Northwest China in 30 years and its correlated distribution characteristics with the global sea surface temperature were analyzed by using the correlation and composite analysis methods. [Result] Spring rainfall presented the fluctuation increasing in the arid region of Northwest China during 1979-2008. The sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean in 15° S-22° N, 45°-105° E had the continuous influence on spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China. It could be as a stable factor for forecasting spring precipitation in the arid region zone of Northwest China. When the sea surface temperature was higher in Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, maybe spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China was more. If the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean in prior summer, autumn and winter was higher, it was favorable for spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China in the next year. The sea surface temperature field in Arabian Sea, Central Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean was the key factor which affected spring precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China. [Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the prediction and forecast of precipitation in the arid region.

Responses of phreatophyte transpiration to falling water table in hyper-arid and arid regions,Northwest China

Quantitative assessment of the impact of groundwater depletion on phreatophytes in(hyper-)arid regions is key to sustainable groundwater management.However,a parsimonious model for predicting the response of phreatophytes to a decrease of the water table is lacking.A variable saturated flow model,HYDRUS-1D,was used to numerically assess the influences of depth to the water table(DWT)and mean annual precipitation(MAP)on transpiration of groundwater-dependent vegetation in(hyper-)arid regions of northwest China.An exponential relationship is found for the normalized transpiration(a ratio of transpiration at a certain DWT to transpiration at 1 m depth,T_(a)^(*))with increasing DWT,while a positive linear relationship is identified between T_(a)^(*)and annual precipitation.Sensitivity analysis shows that the model is insensitive to parameters,such as saturated soil hydraulic conductivity and water stress parameters,indicated by an insignificant variation(less than 20%in most cases)under±50%changes of these parameters.Based on these two relationships,a universal model has been developed to predict the response of phreatophyte transpiration to groundwater drawdown for(hyper-)arid regions using MAP only.The estimated T_(a)^(*)from the model is reasonable by comparing with published measured values.

Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China

The increasing shortage in water resources is a key factor affecting sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC). Water shortages also affect the stability of the region's oasis ecosystem. This paper summarizes the hydrological processes and water cycle of inland river basins in the ARNC, focusing on the following aspects: the spatial-temporal features of water resources(including air water vapor resources, runoff, and glacial meltwater) and their driving forces; the characteristics of streamflow composition in the inland river basins; the characteristics and main controlling factors of baseflow in the inland rivers; and anticipated future changes in hydrological processes and water resources. The results indicate that:(1) although the runoff in most inland rivers in the ARNC showed a significant increasing trend, both the glaciated area and glacial ice reserves have been reduced in the mountains;(2) snow melt and glacier melt are extremely important hydrological processes in the ARNC, especially in the Kunlun and Tianshan mountains;(3) baseflow in the inland rivers of the ARNC is the result of climate change and human activities, with the main driving factors being the reduction in forest area and the over-exploitation and utilization of groundwater in the river basins; and(4) the contradictions among water resources, ecology and economy will further increase in the future. The findings of this study might also help strengthen the ecological, economic and social sustainable development in the study region.

Influence of climate change and human activity on water resources in arid region of Northwest China: An overview

This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid region of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase in summer precipitation since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, and Tacheng. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest, and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation which shows a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such as Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.

Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31
C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.

Pollen Assemblage Features of Modern Water Samples from the Shiyang River Drainage, Arid Region of China

Pollen analysis of 30 modem water samples from the Shivang River, an internal river system located between the Tengger and Badain Jaran deserts, Northwest China was carried out to examine the river's capacity to carry pollen and spores, and to assess the contribution of the water-borne pollen to pollen assemblages in lake sediments at the end of the river system. Results indicate the pollen assemblages in water samples consist of both local and upland pollen. Percentages of upland pollen reach 30% - 60%, and pollen assemblages in water samples do not indicate the nature of local vegetation at the sampling sites. Fluvial currents have the capacity to transport large quantities of pollen long distances, and the contribution of this fluvial transported pollen is relatively high, For example, percentages of Picea Dietr. pollen in water samples at sampling sites 130 km and 145 km away from Picea forests reach 16.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Fluvial pollen transport occurs primarily during flood periods, and pollen concentrations from the flood samples are 17.1 - 12.5 times those from normal fluvial flow. Reservoirs affect pollen transportation since pollen is deposited at reservoir inlets and pollen concentrations are much reduced at reservoir outlets. Human activity can thus change natural features of pollen transportation and deposition. The main factors influencing pollen concentrations and assemblages are sampling time, sampling location, and rainfall intensity.

Research Advances in Allelopathy of Plants in Arid Desert Regions of Northwest China

To investigate allelopathy of plants in desert ecosystems, related research achievements obtained in recent years, reported allelopathic plants, allelochemicals and releasing ways of alleochemicalds were summarized, and then the key problems of research into allelopathic plants in desert ecosystems were indicated. It was considered that the research of allelopathy of plants in desert regions has just started in China, and plants with atlelopathic potential were found in the Compositae, Leguminosae, Rosaceae, Scrophulariaceae and Gramineae; plants in desert regions re- lease allelochemicals mainly via natural volatilization, which is closely related to their growing environment; allelochemicals such as alkaloids, fla- vonoids, terpenoids have been identified. This study can provide theoretical basis and practical value for reasonable adoption of protection meas- ures of desert plants and comprehensive control of desertification.

Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China

Water is a key restricting factor of the economic development and eco-environmental protection in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Although water supplies are short, the water utilization structure and the corresponding industrial structure are unbalanced. We constructed a System Dynamic Model for mutual optimization based on the mechanism of their interaction. This model is applied to the Heihe River Basin where the share of limited water resources among ecosystem, production and human living is optimized. Results show that, by mutual optimization, the water utilization structure and the industrial structures fit in with each other. And the relationships between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin can be harmonized. Mutual benefits of ecology, society and economy can be reached, and a sustainable ecology-production-living system can be obtained. This study gives a new insight and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

Impacts of Climate Change on Net Primary Productivity in Arid and Semiarid Regions of China

In recent years, with the constant change in the global climate, the effect of climate factors on net primary productivity(NPP) has become a hot research topic. However, two opposing views have been presented in this research area: global NPP increases with global warming, and global NPP decreases with global warming. The main reasons for these two opposite results are the tremendous differences among seasonal and annual climate variables, and the growth of plants in accordance with these climate variables. Therefore, it will fail to fully clarify the relation between vegetation growth and climate changes by research that relies solely on annual data. With seasonal climate variables, we may clarify the relation between vegetation growth and climate changes more accurately. Our research examined the arid and semiarid areas in China(ASAC), which account for one quarter of the total area of China. The ecological environment of these areas is fragile and easily affected by human activities. We analyzed the influence of climate changes, especially the changes in seasonal climate variables, on NPP, with Climatic Research Unit(CRU) climatic data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) satellite remote data, for the years 2000–2010. The results indicate that: for annual climatic data, the percentage of the ASAC in which NPP is positively correlated with temperature is 66.11%, and 91.47% of the ASAC demonstrates a positive correlation between NPP and precipitation. Precipitation is more positively correlated with NPP than temperature in the ASAC. For seasonal climatic data, the correlation between NPP and spring temperature shows significant regional differences. Positive correlation areas are concentrated in the eastern portion of the ASAC, while the western section of the ASAC generally shows a negative correlation. However, in summer, most areas in the ASAC show a negative correlation between NPP and temperature. In autumn, precipitation is less important in the west, as opposed to the east, in which it is critically important. Temperatures in winter are a limiting factor for NPP throughout the region. The findings of this research not only underline the importance of seasonal climate variables for vegetation growth, but also suggest that the effects of seasonal climate variables on NPP should be explored further in related research in the future.

Driving Force and Ecosystem Service Values Estimation in the Extreme Arid Region from 1975 to 2015:A Case Study of Alxa League,China

The research on ecosystem service values(ESVs)estimation in arid region is weak.We took the Alxa League of China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,an extreme arid region,as an example and constructed an equivalent coefficient method to assess its ESVs from 1975 to 2015,by determining the standard unit of ESVs and the basic equivalent of the value of different ecosystem services per unit area based on the regional characteristics,literature research,expert knowledge and land use data.The results show that the ESVs first decreased from 83170.4 million yuan(RMB)in 1975 to 82337.8 million yuan(RMB)in 2000 and then increased to84033.6 million yuan(RMB)in 2015,and the ESV of sparse grassland and desert account for about 33%and 29%of the total ESVs,respectively.Among the four service types,the regulating services,support services,supply services and cultural services account for66.5%,22.8%,6.0%and 4.7%,respectively.The changes of ESVs in Alxa League are determined by the socio-economic development and ecological changes.This study provides a new method to estimate the ESVs in arid region by integrating existing methods and regional characteristics,such as the cost of water for arid ecosystems.

PRESSURE OF WATER SHORTAGE ON AGRICULTURE IN ARID REGION OF CHINA

The arid areas in China are mainly located in North China and NorthwestChina. The North China is the main region for food production. There is 31. 19% of the totalfarmland and 26. 01% of the total population, but only 6. 14% of the available water resources ofChina. Groundwater is over pumped (6. 53 X 10~9m^3 every year) in the regions of Beijing, Tianjin,and Hebei Province, so water supply could not meet the water demand there. The distribution of waterin Northwest China is uneven, some inland rivers and lakes are dried up, and desertification hasexpanded since river water in the upper and middle reaches is diverted for irrigation. Up to 2050,population will be up to 1. 6 X 10~9 in China, and industry will be developed fast, therefore 50% ofthe water supply will be used by industry and resident, and water for agriculture will be decreasedyear by year. In the coming 50 years, water demand for agriculture will be increased by 5. 6 x10^9m^3 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River valley, and by 1. 7 x 10~9m^3 in the Northwest China. It willbe impossible for the Huanghe River to meet the water demand, because it always dried up in the coldhalf year since 1984. To avoid water shortage of agriculture in the arid regions, it is necessaryto divert water from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River in the south of China, and to use waterefficiently. It is the best way to use drip irrigation in agriculture, recycle water in industry andresident use, and control water pollution. Otherwise water shortage in the arid regions willrestrict the development of agriculture in China.

Climatic Warming and Humidification in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Multi-Scale Characteristics and Impacts on Ecological Vegetation

The climatic warming and humidification observed in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC) and their impacts on the ecological environment have become an issue of concern. The associated multi-scale characteristics and environmental responses are currently poorly understood. Using data from satellite remote sensing, field observations, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, this paper systematically analyzes the process and scale characteristics of the climatic warming and humidification in the ARNC and their impacts on ecological vegetation. The results show that not only have temperature and precipitation increased significantly in the ARNC over the past 60 years, but the increasing trend of precipitation is also obviously intensifying. The dryness index, which comprehensively considers the effects of precipitation and temperature, has clearly decreased, and the trend in humidification has increased. Spatially, the trend of temperature increase has occurred over the entire region, while 93.4% of the region has experienced an increase in precipitation, suggesting a spatially consistent climatic warming and humidification throughout the ARNC. Long-term trends and interannual changes in temperature and precipitation dominate the changes in climatic warming and humidification. Compared to interannual variations in temperature, the trend change of temperature contributes more to the overall temperature change. However, the contribution of interannual variations in precipitation is greater than that of the precipitation trend to the overall precipitation change. The current climatic warming and humidification generally promote the growth of ecological vegetation. Since the 1980 s,82.4% of the regional vegetation has thrived. The vegetation index has a significant positive correlation with precipitation and temperature. However, it responds more significantly to interannual precipitation variation, although the vegetation response varies significantly under different types of land use. The warming and humidification of the climate in the ARNC are probably related to intensifications of the westerly wind circulation and ascending air motions.They are expected to continue in the future, although the strength of the changes will probably be insufficient to significantly change the basic climate pattern in the ARNC. The results of this study provide helpful information for decision making related to China's "Belt and Road" development strategies.

Response of runoff to change of atmospheric 0℃ level height in summer in arid region of Northwest China

Based on the daily observed data from eight sounding stations and the daily mountain runoff data from nine rivers in summer from 1960 to 2009 in four typical study areas located in arid region of Northwest China(ARNC),the change trends,abrupt change points,and their significance of runoff and 0℃ level height(FLH) were analyzed in ARNC in the last 50 years by using Mann-Kendall(MK) nonparametric test,and the quantitative relationship between runoff and FLH in summer was also analyzed with the linear regression and elastic coefficient methods.The results are indicated as follows:(1) in recent 50 years,there is a similar changing trend between the summer runoff and FLH in ARNC and each region has its own unique feature.The summer runoff has been significantly ascending in the Tianshan Mountains and on the northern slope of the Qilian Mountains(NSQM) compared to that of the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains(NSKM).Likewise,the FLH has been taking on a markedly rising trend on the northern slopes of the Tianshan and Qilian Mountains(NSTM and NSQM) in comparison with the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains(SSTM).However,the FLH on NSKM has been decreasing with the speed of 2.33 m every year.(2) Abrupt change analysis indicates that the period of abrupt change happened for summer runoff and FLH is totally different among the four typical study regions,and even in same region.(3) There is a positive significant relation between the summer runoff and FLH in ARNC(NSQM P <0.05;other three regions P <0.01).Therefore,the ascending and descending of the summer FLH is a vital factor inducing the change of summer runoff in ARNC.(4) The elastic coefficient of summer runoff to the change of summer FLH on NSKM,NSTM,NSQM,and SSTM are 7.19,3.80,2.79,and 6.63,respectively,which indicates that there exists the regional difference in the sensibility of summer runoff to the change of summer FLH in ARNC.The distinct proportion of glacial meltwater runoff is an important cause resulting in the regional difference of sensibility.

Correlation and SVD Analysis of Anomalous Spring Precipitation in Northwest China and Sea Surface Temperature in Key Region in Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Key region in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on monthly average precipitation in Northwest China and global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) grid data, the effects of SSTA in equatorial central and eastern Pacific on spring precipitation in Northwest China were discussed by means of correlation and SVD analysis. [Result] For spring precipitation in Northwest China, the key period of SST was from August to September in the former year, and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (125°-85° W, 5° S-10° N) was named 'Key region'. Correlation analysis showed that there was obviously positive correlation between spring precipitation in Northwest China and SST (monthly average from August to September in the former year) in equatorial central and eastern Pacific, especially Key region. SVD analysis revealed that spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China distributed in phase, while SST in equatorial central and eastern Pacific from August to September in the former year had higher positive correlation coefficient, and there was obviously positive couple correlation in Key region. [Conclusion] The study could provide theoretic foundation for the prediction of drought and flood in Northwest China.

A Study of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure During a Clear Day in the Arid Region of Northwest China

The local climate and atmospheric circulation pattern exert a clear influence on the atmospheric boundary layer （ABL） formation and development in Northwest China. In this paper, we use field observational data to analyze the distribution and characteristics of the ABL in the extremely arid desert in Dunhuang, Northwest China. These data show that the daytime convective boundary layer and night time stable boundary layer in this area extend to higher altitudes than in other areas. In the night time, the stable boundary layer exceeds 900 m in altitude and can sometimes peak at 1750 m, above which the residual layer may reach up to about 4000 m. The daytime convective boundary layer develops rapidly after entering the residual layer, and exceeds 4000 m in thickness. The results show that the deep convective boundary layer in the daytime is a pre-requisite for maintaining the deep residual mixed layer in the night time. Meanwhile, the deep residual mixed layer in the night time provides favorable thermal conditions for the development of the convective boundary layer in the daytime. The prolonged periods of clear weather that often occurs in this area allow the cumulative effect of the atmospheric residual layer to develop fully, which creates thermal conditions beneficial for the growth of the daytime convective boundary layer. At the same time, the land surface process and atmospheric motion within the surface layer in this area also provide helpful support for forming the particular structure of the thermal ABL. High surface temperature is clearly the powerful external thermal forcing for the deep convective boundary layer. Strong sensible heat flux in the surface layer provides the required energy. Highly convective atmosphere and strong turbulence provide the necessary dynamic conditions, and the accumulative effect of the residual layer provides a favorable thermal environment.

Characteristics of Recent Horizontal Crustal Movement and Tectonic Deformation in the Northwest China Region

Making use of observation data of GPS in the Northwest China region and infrared distancemeasurements crossing the Qilian-Longshoushan fault zone up to 2004, aided by the least square collocation and inversion of negative dislocation model for the boundaries of elastic blocks and the singular force-source, the dynamic evolution features of deformation and strain fields before and after the Ms = 8. 1 earthquake on the west of Kunlun Mountains Pass, especially the recent tectonic deformation and stress field status three years after this earthquake are studied. The possible regions or segments of active blocks and their boundaries reflecting accumulation background of high strain energy of producing earthquakes over middle magnitude, are obtained, as well as the potential epicenter. The results show that after shortterm relaxation and adjustment in the northern margin of Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） block after the Ms = 8. 1 earthquake, the main control action of background field of northeastward pushing of Indian plate is now recovering. Moreover, the following regions are found to have the background of high strain energy accumulation. They are the middle segment of the northern Tianshan fault zone and its meeting region with the western segment, the middle and western segments of southern Tianshan fault zone and the meeting region with Western Kunlun fault zone, the middle segment of Altun fault, the middle-eastern segment of Qilianshan fault zone and its meeting region with Haiyuan fault, the meeting region of northern margin fault of west Qinling Range and the southeastward expanding line of Zhuanglanghe fault; The Linze and Haiynan areas also see accumulation of strain energy to some degree.

Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China

Climate change and water resource issues are global problems of common concern to the international community, and they are major bottlenecks affecting the eco-environment and sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China. On the basis of results from previous studies, this paper points out that the unique landscape of Northwest China increases the complexity and uncertainty of the climate system. This paper analyzes the key constraints on socio-economic development and ecological security in the region, discusses the impact of climate change on water resources in Northwest China, identifies common themes and the main problems present in research on climate change and water resources in the arid northwest region, and finally, based on the importance and urgency of conducting research on the region＇s water resources, proposes scientific problems that need to be addressed： first, the impact of climate change on the formation, conversion and future trends of water resources in the region; second, bidirectional coupling of high-resolution regional climate models and water cycle models of arid region land surface patterns; third, the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources of the arid northwest region. Through consideration and discussion of the above, this paper seeks to further clarify specific areas of research on pressing issues related to climate change and water resources in Northwest China, so as to establish a solid scientific basis for significantly enhancing our ability to respond to climate change and water shortages.

Progress and Prospect of Extreme Climate Events in Arid Northwest China

Extreme climate events have significant influences on ecological systems and social economic systems. The global climate is becoming warmer and warmer, so extreme climate events will probably increase in both frequency and intensity, and the Northwest arid region of China is situated in the middle latitudes, all of which combine to make this area be come the most sensitive region to global climate change. For this reason, based on home and broad literature of research in extreme climate events, this paper mainly discusses those scientific problems which are waiting for resolved and we should strength work that those need research in future from extreme climatic events concept, their change regular, the discussion of theory reasons, and review from mode and simulate, as well as sum up some research results related ex treme climatic change.