The Actuarial Data Intelligent Based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Automobile Insurance Inflation Adjusted Frequency Severity Loss Reserving Model

This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the challenges of accurately predicting insurance claim frequencies, severities, and overall loss reserves while accounting for inflation adjustments. Through comprehensive data analysis and model development, this research explores the effectiveness of ANN methodologies in capturing complex nonlinear relationships within insurance data. The study leverages a data set comprising automobile insurance policyholder information, claim history, and economic indicators to train and validate the ANN-based reserving model. Key aspects of the methodology include data preprocessing techniques such as one-hot encoding and scaling, followed by the construction of frequency, severity, and overall loss reserving models using ANN architectures. Moreover, the model incorporates inflation adjustment factors to ensure the accurate estimation of future loss reserves in real terms. Results from the study demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the ANN-based reserving model compared to traditional actuarial methods, with substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the model’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements, such as IFRS17, highlights its practical relevance in the insurance industry. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of actuarial science and provide valuable insights for insurance companies seeking more accurate and efficient loss reserving techniques. The proposed ANN-based approach offers a promising avenue for enhancing risk management practices and optimizing financial decision-making processes in the automobile insurance sector.

Simultaneous Identification of Thermophysical Properties of Semitransparent Media Using a Hybrid Model Based on Artificial Neural Network and Evolutionary Algorithm

A hybrid identification model based on multilayer artificial neural networks(ANNs) and particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm is developed to improve the simultaneous identification efficiency of thermal conductivity and effective absorption coefficient of semitransparent materials.For the direct model,the spherical harmonic method and the finite volume method are used to solve the coupled conduction-radiation heat transfer problem in an absorbing,emitting,and non-scattering 2D axisymmetric gray medium in the background of laser flash method.For the identification part,firstly,the temperature field and the incident radiation field in different positions are chosen as observables.Then,a traditional identification model based on PSO algorithm is established.Finally,multilayer ANNs are built to fit and replace the direct model in the traditional identification model to speed up the identification process.The results show that compared with the traditional identification model,the time cost of the hybrid identification model is reduced by about 1 000 times.Besides,the hybrid identification model remains a high level of accuracy even with measurement errors.

A sub-grid scale model for Burgers turbulence based on the artificial neural network method

The present study proposes a sub-grid scale model for the one-dimensional Burgers turbulence based on the neuralnetwork and deep learning method.The filtered data of the direct numerical simulation is used to establish thetraining data set,the validation data set,and the test data set.The artificial neural network(ANN)methodand Back Propagation method are employed to train parameters in the ANN.The developed ANN is applied toconstruct the sub-grid scale model for the large eddy simulation of the Burgers turbulence in the one-dimensionalspace.The proposed model well predicts the time correlation and the space correlation of the Burgers turbulence.

Optimization of the Conceptual Model of Green-Ampt Using Artificial Neural Network Model (ANN) and WMS to Estimate Infiltration Rate of Soil (Case Study: Kakasharaf Watershed, Khorram Abad, Iran)

Determination of the infiltration rate in a watershed is not easy and in empirical and theoretical point of view, it is important to access average value of infiltration. Infiltration models has main role in managing water sources. Therefore different types of models with various degrees of complexity were developed to reach this aim. Most of the estimating methods of soil infiltration are expensive and time consuming and these methods estimate infiltration with hypothesis of zero slope. One of the conceptual and physical models for estimating soil infiltration is Green-Ampt model which is similar to Richard model. This model uses slope factor in estimating infiltration and this is the power point of Green-Ampt model. In this research the empirical model of Green-Ampt was optimized with integrating artificial neural network model (ANN) and a model of geographical information system WMS to estimate the infiltration in Kakasharaf watershed. Results of the comparison between the output of this method and real value of infiltration in region (through multiple cylinders) showed that this method can estimate the infiltration rate of Kakasharaf watershed with low error and acceptable accuracy (Nash-Sutcliff performance coefficient 0.821, square error 0.216, correlation coefficient 0.905 and model error 0.024).

Stand basal area modelling for Chinese fir plantations using an artificial neural network model

Artificial neural network models are a popular estimation tool for fitting nonlinear relationships because they require no assumptions about the form of the fitting function,non-Gaussian distributions,multicollinearity,outliers and noise in the data.The problems of backpropagation models using artificial neural networks include determination of the structure of the network and overlearning courses.According to data from 1981 to 2008 from 15 permanent sample plots on Dagangshan Mountain in Jiangxi Province,a back-propagation artificial neural network model(BPANN)and a support vector machine model(SVM)for basal area of Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata)plantations were constructed using four kinds of prediction factors,including stand age,site index,surviving stem numbers and quadratic mean diameters.Artificial intelligence methods,especially SVM,could be effective in describing stand basal area growth of Chinese fir under different growth conditions with higher simulation precision than traditional regression models.SVM and the Chapman–Richards nonlinear mixed-effects model had less systematic bias than the BPANN.

Artificial neural network modeling of water quality of the Yangtze River system:a case study in reaches crossing the city of Chongqing

An effective approach for describing complicated water quality processes is very important for river water quality management. We built two artificial neural network(ANN) models,a feed-forward back-propagation(BP) model and a radial basis function(RBF) model,to simulate the water quality of the Yangtze and Jialing Rivers in reaches crossing the city of Chongqing,P. R. China. Our models used the historical monitoring data of biological oxygen demand,dissolved oxygen,ammonia,oil and volatile phenolic compounds. Comparison with the one-dimensional traditional water quality model suggest that both BP and RBF models are superior; their higher accuracy and better goodness-of-fit indicate that the ANN calculation of water quality agrees better with measurement. It is demonstrated that ANN modeling can be a tool for estimating the water quality of the Yangtze River. Of the two ANN models,the RBF model calculates with a smaller mean error,but a larger root mean square error. More effort to identify out the causes of these differences would help optimize the structures of neural network water-quality models.

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS-MODELING, PROGRAMMING AND APPLICATION IN MATERIAL HOT WORKING

The developments of modern mathematics and computer science make artificial neural networks become most useful tools in wide range of fields. Modeling methods of artificial neural networks are described in this paper. The programming technique by using Matlab neural networks toolbox is discussed. The application in Material Hot Working of neural networks is also introduced.

Artificial neural network models predicting the leaf area index:a case study in pure even-aged Crimean pine forests from Turkey

Background: Leaf Area Index(LAI) is an important parameter used in monitoring and modeling of forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to evaluate performance of the artificial neural network(ANN) models to predict the LAI by comparing the regression analysis models as the classical method in these pure and even-aged Crimean pine forest stands.Methods: One hundred eight temporary sample plots were collected from Crimean pine forest stands to estimate stand parameters. Each sample plot was imaged with hemispherical photographs to detect the LAI. The partial correlation analysis was used to assess the relationships between the stand LAI values and stand parameters, and the multivariate linear regression analysis was used to predict the LAI from stand parameters. Different artificial neural network models comprising different number of neuron and transfer functions were trained and used to predict the LAI of forest stands.Results: The correlation coefficients between LAI and stand parameters(stand number of trees, basal area, the quadratic mean diameter, stand density and stand age) were significant at the level of 0.01. The stand age, number of trees, site index, and basal area were independent parameters in the most successful regression model predicted LAI values using stand parameters(R_(adj)~2=0.5431). As corresponding method to predict the interactions between the stand LAI values and stand parameters, the neural network architecture based on the RBF 4-19-1 with Gaussian activation function in hidden layer and the identity activation function in output layer performed better in predicting LAI(SSE(12.1040), MSE(0.1223), RMSE(0.3497), AIC(0.1040), BIC(-77.7310) and R^2(0.6392)) compared to the other studied techniques.Conclusion: The ANN outperformed the multivariate regression techniques in predicting LAI from stand parameters. The ANN models, developed in this study, may aid in making forest management planning in study forest stands.

Artificial neural network modeling of gold dissolution in cyanide media

The effects of cyanidation conditions on gold dissolution were studied by artificial neural network （ANN） modeling. Eighty-five datasets were used to estimate the gold dissolution. Six input parameters, time, solid percentage, P50 of particle, NaCN content in cyanide media, temperature of solution and pH value were used. For selecting the best model, the outputs of models were compared with measured data. A fourth-layer ANN is found to be optimum with architecture of twenty, fifteen, ten and five neurons in the first, second, third and fourth hidden layers, respectively, and one neuron in output layer. The results of artificial neural network show that the square correlation coefficients （R2） of training, testing and validating data achieve 0.999 1, 0.996 4 and 0.9981, respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that the highest and lowest effects on the gold dissolution rise from time and pH, respectively It is verified that the predicted values of ANN coincide well with the experimental results.

Applying Artificial Neural Networks to Modeling the Middle Atmosphere

An artificial neural network （ANN） is used to model the middle atmosphere using a large number of TIMED/SABER limb sounding temperature profiles. A three-layer feed-forward network is chosen based on the back-propagation （BP） algorithm. Latitude, longitude, and height are chosen as the input vectors of the network while temperature is the output vector. The temperature observations during the period from 13 January through 16 March 2007, which are in the same satellite yaw, are taken as samples to train an ANN. Results suggest that the network has high quality for modeling spatial variations of temperature. Quantitative comparisons between the ANN outputs and those from the popular empirical NRLMSISE-00 model illustrate their generally consistent features and some specific differences. The NRLMSISE-00 model＇s zonal mean temperatures are too high by ～6 K-10 K near the stratopause, and the amplitude and phase of the planetary wave number 1 activity are different in some respects from the ANN simulations above 45-50 km, suggesting improvement is needed in the NRLMSISE-00 model for more accurate simulation near and above the stratopause.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cells modeling based on artificial neural networks

To understand the complexity of the mathematical models of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) and their shortage of practical PEMFC control, the PEMFC complex mechanism and the existing PEMFC models are analyzed, and artificial neural networks based PEMFC modeling is advanced. The structure, algorithm, training and simulation of PEMFC modeling based on improved BP networks are given out in detail. The computer simulation and conducted experiment verify that this model is fast and accurate, and can be used as a suitable operational model for PEMFC real-time control.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks Model as Analytical Tool for Groundwater Salinity

The main source of water in Gaza Strip is the shallow coastal aquifer. It is extremely deteriorated in terms of salinity which influenced by many variables. Studying the relation between these variables and salinity is often a complex and nonlinear process, making it suitable to model by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Initially, it is assumed that the salinity (represented by chloride concentration, mg/l) may be affected by some variables as: recharge rate, abstraction, abstraction average rate, life time and aquifer thickness. Data were extracted from 56 municipal wells, covering the area of Gaza Strip. After a number of modeling trials, the best neural network was determined to be Multilayer Perceptron network (MLP) with four layers: an input layer of 6 neurons, first hidden layer with 10 neurons, second hidden layer with 7 neurons and the output layer with 1 neuron which gives the final chloride concentration. The ANN model generated very good results depending on the high correlation between the observed and simulated values of chloride concentration. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.9848. The high value of (r) showed that the simulated chloride concentration values using the ANN model were in very good agreement with the observed chloride concentration which mean that ANN model is useful and applicable for groundwater salinity modeling. ANN model was successfully utilized as analytical tool to study influence of the input variables on chloride concentration. It proved that chloride concentration in groundwater is reduced by decreasing abstraction, abstraction average rate and life time. Furthermore, it is reduced by increasing recharge rate and aquifer thickness.

Evaluation of Intensive Urban Land Use Based on an Artificial Neural Network Model:A Case Study of Nanjing City,China

In this paper, the artificial neural network(ANN) model was used to evaluate the degree of intensive urban land use in Nanjing City, China. The construction and application of the ANN model took into account the comprehensive, spatial and complex nature of urban land use. Through a preliminary calculation of the degree of intensive land use of the sample area, representative sample area selection and using the back propagation neural network model to train, the intensive land use level of each evaluation unit is finally determined in the study area. Results show that the method can effectively correct the errors caused by the limitations of the model itself and the determination of the ideal value and weights when the multifactor comprehensive evaluation is used alone. The ANN model can make the evaluation results more objective and practical. The evaluation results show a tendency of decreasing land use intensity from the core urban area to the periphery and the industrial functional area has relatively low land use intensity compared with other functional areas. Based on the evaluation results, some suggestions are put forward, such as transforming the mode of urban spatial expansion, strengthening the integration and potential exploitation of the land in the urban built-up area, and strengthening the control of the construction intensity of protected areas.

Novel model of a AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistor based on an artificial neural network

In this paper we present a novel approach to modeling AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistor （HEMT） with an artificial neural network （ANN）. The AlGaN/GaN HEMT device structure and its fabrication process are described. The circuit-based Neuro-space mapping （neuro-SM） technique is studied in detail. The EEHEMT model is implemented according to the measurement results of the designed device, which serves as a coarse model. An ANN is proposed to model AIGaN/CaN HEMT based on the coarse model. Its optimization is performed. The simulation results from the model are compared with the measurement results. It is shown that the simulation results obtained from the ANN model of A1GaN/GaN HEMT are more accurate than those obtained from the EEHEMT model.

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODELLING OF A WOOD CHIP REFINER

1 INTRODUCTIONWood chip refining is the most critical step in mechanical pulping.Commercical experi-ences have been gained for years.Modelling and control of chip refiners,however,pose a challenge mainly because of the stochastic nature of the process.Some attemptshave been made to employ factor analysis technique[1]in the modelling andsimulating of refiner operation[2,3].Strand[2]used common factors as links betweenintrinsic fibre properties and pulp quality.He believed that a qualitative concept onthe physical nature of these common factors could be arrived at,and thus would helpto understand what refining variables need to be controlled or adjusted in order to im-prove pulp quality.However,the linear model used in factor analysis is based on theassumption that the interactions among the system variables are linear,which,ofcourse,is not true in practice.

Artificial neural network-based one-equation model for simulation of laminar-turbulent transitional flow

A mapping function between the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes mean flow variables and transition intermittency factor is constructed by fully connected artificial neural network(ANN),which replaces the governing equation of the intermittency factor in transition-predictive Spalart-Allmaras(SA)-γmodel.By taking SA-γmodel as the benchmark,the present ANN model is trained at two airfoils with various angles of attack,Mach numbers and Reynolds numbers,and tested with unseen airfoils in different flow states.The a posteriori tests manifest that the mean pressure coefficient,skin friction coefficient,size of laminar separation bubble,mean streamwise velocity,Reynolds shear stress and lift/drag/moment coefficient from the present two-way coupling ANN model almost coincide with those from the benchmark SA-γmodel.Furthermore,the ANN model proves to exhibit a higher calculation efficiency and better convergence quality than traditional SA-γmodel.

An Efficient and Robust Fall Detection System Using Wireless Gait Analysis Sensor with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) Algorithms

In this work, a total of 322 tests were taken on young volunteers by performing 10 different falls, 6 different Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and 7 Dynamic Gait Index (DGI) tests using a custom-designed Wireless Gait Analysis Sensor (WGAS). In order to perform automatic fall detection, we used Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the 6 features extracted from the raw data. The WGAS, which includes a tri-axial accelerometer, 2 gyroscopes, and a MSP430 microcontroller, is worn by the subjects at either T4 (at back) or as a belt-clip in front of the waist during the various tests. The raw data is wirelessly transmitted from the WGAS to a near-by PC for real-time fall classification. The BP ANN is optimized by varying the training, testing and validation data sets and training the network with different learning schemes. SVM is optimized by using three different kernels and selecting the kernel for best classification rate. The overall accuracy of BP ANN is obtained as 98.20% with LM and RPROP training from the T4 data, while from the data taken at the belt, we achieved 98.70% with LM and SCG learning. The overall accuracy using SVM was 98.80% and 98.71% with RBF kernel from the T4 and belt position data, respectively.

Evaluation of a mathematical model using experimental data and artificial neural network for prediction of gas separation

In recent times, membranes have found wide applications in gas separation processes. As most of the industrial membrane separation units use hollow fiber modules, having a proper model for simulating this type of membrane module is very useful in achieving guidelines for design and characterization of membrane separation units. In this study, a model based on Coker, Freeman, and Fleming＇s study was used for estimating the required membrane area. This model could simulate a multicomponent gas mixture separation by solving the governing differential mass balance equations with numerical methods. Results of the model were validated using some binary and multicomponent experimental data from the literature. Also, the artificial neural network （ANN） technique was applied to predict membrane gas separation behavior and the results of the ANN simulation were compared with the simulation results of the model and the experimental data. Good consistency between these results shows that ANN method can be successfully used for prediction of the separation behavior after suitable training of the network

Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network Model for Air Pollutant Index Prediction in the Southern Region of Peninsular Malaysia

This paper describes the application of principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the air pollutant index (API) within the seven selected Malaysian air monitoring stations in the southern region of Peninsular Malaysia based on seven years database (2005-2011). Feed-forward ANN was used as a prediction method. The feed-forward ANN analysis demonstrated that the rotated principal component scores (RPCs) were the best input parameters to predict API. From the 4 RPCs, only 10 (CO, O3, PM10, NO2, CH4, NmHC, THC, wind direction, humidity and ambient temp) out of 12 prediction variables were the most significant parameters to predict API. The results proved that the ANN method can be applied successfully as tools for decision making and problem solving for better atmospheric management.

Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Lung Cancer Survival

The object of our present study is to develop a piecewise constant hazard model by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to capture the complex shapes of the hazard functions, which cannot be achieved with conventional survival analysis models like Cox proportional hazard. We propose a more convenient approach to the PEANN created by Fornili et al. to handle a large amount of data. In particular, it provides much better prediction accuracies over both the Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations. This has been demonstrated with lung cancer patient data taken from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. The quality of the proposed model is evaluated by using several error measurement criteria.