Partial least squares regression for predicting economic loss of vegetables caused by acid rain

To predict the economic loss of crops caused by acid rain,we used partial least squares(PLS) regression to build a model of single dependent variable -the economic loss calculated with the decrease in yield related to the pH value and levels of Ca2+,NH4+,Na+,K+,Mg2+,SO42-,NO3-,and Cl-in acid rain. We selected vegetables which were sensitive to acid rain as the sample crops,and collected 12 groups of data,of which 8 groups were used for modeling and 4 groups for testing. Using the cross validation method to evaluate the performace of this prediction model indicates that the optimum number of principal components was 3,determined by the minimum of prediction residual error sum of squares,and the prediction error of the regression equation ranges from -2.25% to 4.32%. The model predicted that the economic loss of vegetables from acid rain is negatively corrrelated to pH and the concentrations of NH4+,SO42-,NO3-,and Cl-in the rain,and positively correlated to the concentrations of Ca2+,Na+,K+ and Mg2+. The precision of the model may be improved if the non-linearity of original data is addressed.

Assessment of China's economic loss resulting from the degradation of agricultural land in the end of 20th century

Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326 81 billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4 1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1 5 in the only 7 years.

Effect of acidic deposition on productivity of forest ecosystem and estimation of its economic losses in southern suburbs of Chongqing, China

In accordance with principles and methods of ecology, the effects of acidic deposition on productivity and volume increment of masson pine and Cinnamomum campora forest which are widely distributed in southern suburbs of Chongqing, China were studied. Based on the field data and measurements, a multivariable stepwise regression model was established to analyze the effects of multiple environmental factors on the productivity of the forest ecosystems. This model was used to assess the volume and economic losses of these two forest ecosystems caused by acidic deposition. The result showed that, among the environmental factors, pH value of precipitation, soil depth, soil organic contents and slope are the dominant ones influencing the growth of masson pine forest. It was also shown that the acidic deposition has no clear relation to the growth of C.Campora forest, so development of such broad leaved forest is suitable in the area.

Measuring economic loss caused by ecological damages: a case study of China's forest ecosystem in 2005

At present about 60% of ecosystem has been damaged and degraded severely, resulting in enormous ecological loss globally. The essential cause is the irrational utilization of ecosystem by humankind, so it is tire key to changing improper environmental performance of humankind so as to prevent ecosystem from being damaged The quantitative valuation on the loss of ecological damage is an effective tool to guide human eco-environmental performance. In this paper, the concepts related to the valuation on ecological damage cost are introduced,＂ uncertainties that might arise in the valuation on the loss of ecological damage such as area coverage of valuation, ecological damage quantity, borders of ecological damage cost and data support are analyzed and the valuation approaches for the loss of ecological damage are also discussed As a case study, the economic losses of ecological damage of forest in 2005 in China are valuated.

Performance-Economic and Energy Loss Analysis of 80 KWp Grid Connected Roof Top Transformer Less Photovoltaic Power Plant

In India most part receives 4 - 7 kWh of solar radiation per square meter per day with 200 - 250 sunny days in a year. Tamilnadu state also receives the highest annual radiation in India. In this paper, the grid connected photovoltaic plant has a peak power of 80 KWp supplies electricity requirement of GRT IET campus during day time (7 hrs) and reduces load demand and generates useful data for future implementation of such PV plant projects in the Tamilnadu region. Photovoltaic plant was installed in April 2015, monitored during 6 months, and the performance ratio and the various power losses (power electronics, temperature, soiling, internal, network, grid availability and interconnection) were calculated. The PV plant supplied 64,182.86 KWh to the grid from April to September 2015, ranging from 11,510.900 to 10,200.9 kWh. The final yield ranged from 143.886 (h/d) to 127.51 (y/d), reference yield ranged from 201.6 (h/d) to 155.31 (h/d) and performance ratio ranged from 71.3% to 82.1%, for a duration of six months, it had given a performance ratio of 83.82%, system efficiency was 4.16% and the capacity factor of GRT IET Campus for six months was 18.26%. Payback period in years = 9 years 4 months, energy saving per year = 204,400 KWh, cost reduction per year = 1,737,400, Indian rupee = 26,197.30 USD and total CO2 reductions per year = 102,200 tons CO2/year.

Depreciation factor equation to evaluate the economic losses from ground failure due to subsidence related to groundwater withdrawal

Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, in combination with subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, generates differential settlements and aseismic ground failure (AGF) characterized by a welldefined scarp. In cities, such AGF causes severe damages to urban infrastructure and considerable economic impact. With the goal of arriving to a general criterion for evaluating the economic losses derived from AGF, in the present work we propose the following equation: ELi = PVi*DFi. Where PVi is the value of a property “i”, and DFi is a depreciation factor caused by structural damages of a property “i” due to AGF. The DFi is calculated empirically through: . This last equation is based on the spatial relations of coexistence and proximity of property polygons and the AGF axis. The coexistence is valued as the quotient of the affectation area divided by the total area of the involved property;and the proximity to the AGF axis is expressed as the inverse of the perpendicular distance from the centroid of the property polygon to the AGF axis. The sum of these terms is divided by two to determine the percentage that affects the property value (PVi). These equations are relevant because it is the first indicator designed for the discrete assessment of the economic impacts due to AGF, and can be applied to real estate infrastructure from either urban or rural areas.

Assessment of Economic Loss Caused by Agricultural Non-point Source Nutrient Loss

Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, we use the JOHNES export coefficient model to estimate the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load of agricultural planting, livestock and poultry breeding and rural living non-point source in 2009. Based on the protection cost method in environmental economics, we quantitatively assess the economic loss caused by these three types of non-point source nutrient loss. The results show that in TN non-point source load, the load of land for planting accounts for 57.48%, the load of rural living accounts for 30.22%, and the load of livestock and poultry breeding accounts for 12.30%; in TP non-point source load, the load of rural living accounts for 46.18%, the load of livestock and poultry breeding accounts for 29.00%, and the load of land for planting accounts for 24.82%. The economic loss arising from the agricultural non-point source nutrient loss is equivalent to 2.329 424 7 billion yuan per year (the loss from land for planting accounts for 55.46%; the loss from rural living accounts for 31.21%; the loss from livestock and poultry breeding accounts for 13.33%). It indicates that in order to reduce the loss arising from agricultural non-point source nutrient loss, we should pay attention to controlling the land for planting and rural living source.

Economic Losses from Winter Storms

China’s economic losses from the January winter storms keep escalating. The Ministry of Civil Affairs estimated that the direct economic losses valued

Prevalence of ruminants fascioliasis and their economic effects in Kashan,center of Iran

Objective:To determine the prevalence and economic losses of Fasciola spp.isolates and costs incurred due to liver condemnation from ruminants in Kashan region,center of Iran from 2012 to 2013.Methods:In this cross-sectional study,a total number of 251 325 slaughtered sheep,goats and cattle(88939 sheep.151 924 goats and 10462 cattle) were examined via necropsy for fasciolasis in industrial Kashan abattoirs located in center of Iran.The average weight was calculated as 1 000 g for sheep,900 g for goat and 5000 g for cattle in this study region.Based on market value,the average price of a kilo gram of normal liver at Kashan city during the study period was 8 USD.The amount of main nutrients and vitamins elimination in liver contaminated to fascioliasis was determined.Results:Overall 3.28%of the livers were found to be infected.For total number of sheep,goats and cattle slaughtered annually in region study,it was estimated that 7505 livers were infected and total annual economic losses of fascioliasis of studied animals was 41 784 USD(based on market prices in study period).Of this.23 360 USD,30240 USD and 15400 USD were associated with the fascioliasis of sheep,goats and cattle,respectively.Conclusions:This study indicated that the Fasciola sp.clearly remains prevalent and causes considerable economic losses in study region in sheep,goats and cattle and presumably,other areas and hosts of Iran,providing baseline data for the future monitoring of this potentially important parasitic infection in the country.

Ecological and Economic System Health Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis:A Case Study of Northwest Region,China

Due to the increasingly serious environmental pollution and destruction,especially humans' unreasonable activities,the ecological and economic system(EES) issues of Northwest region in China have attracted more and more attention of the researchers.Aiming at evaluating its ecological and economic system health,a multi-objective evaluation framework called PressureState-Response(PSR) was established to describe the ecological and economic health situations.Meanwhile,an integrative set pair model combining set pair analysis(SPA) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) was proposed to assess the ecological and economic system.Then the EES status of five northwest provinces(Shanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang) of Northwest region in China was evaluated during 1985 to 2009.The EES development trends of five provinces are obtained.In general,the health values of five provinces showed a rising trend.The health values of five provinces grew rapidly during 1985 to 2000.After 2000,the health values of five provinces still followed the present growth trend,but the growth is relatively smooth.The results show that the method proposed is effective for assessing the health of ecological and economic system.

Economic Evaluation Method of Photovoltaic Power Generation Installed in Ordinary Homes

This study aims to develop an economic evaluation method for installing photovoltaic power generation in ordinary homes using GIS (Geographic Information Systems). The conclusions can be summarized in the following three points: 1) This method determines the profit and loss and payback period in order to evaluate the installation of photovoltaic power generation, taking into account the price of equipment, solar battery module conversion efficiency, subsidy, electricity purchase price, service life and rate for selling electricity. 2) The proposed evaluation method was applied to Kanagawa Prefecture in Japan, providing plural scenarios. Using a solar battery module conversion efficiency of more than 15%, it is possible to make the payback period shorter than the 20-year service life and anticipate a profit in almost the whole area. 3) The areas suitable for photovoltaic power generation are Kawasaki City and Ninomiya-machi. It is necessary to adopt measures to increase the subsidy and install photovoltaic power generating systems in specific places in areas where subsidies are not provided in enough amounts.

Sequential Approach with Matrix Framework for Various Types of Economic Thermal Power Dispatch Problems

This paper presents a sequential approach with matrix framework for solving various kinds of economic dispatch problems. The objective of the economic dispatch problems of electrical power generation is to schedule the committed generating units output so as to meet the required load demand while satisfying the system equality and inequality constraints. This is a maiden approach developed to obtain the optimal dispatches of generating units for all possible load demands of power system in a single execution. The feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated by solving economic load dispatch problem, combined economic and emission dispatch problem, multiarea economic dispatch problem and economic dispatch problem with multiple fuel options. The proposed methodology is tested with different scale of power systems. The generating unit operational constraints are also considered. The simulation results obtained by proposed methodology for various economic dispatch problems are compared with previous literatures in terms of solution quality. Numerical simulation results indicate an improvement in total cost saving and hence the superiority of the proposed method is also revealed for economic dispatch problems.

Economic Benefit Analysis of 220 kV Energy-saving Power Transformer

Power transformer serves as one of the most widely used electrical equipments in power grid. During the operation, terrible losses are produced. With the development of loss reduction technology of power transformers, in order to save energy saving and reduce emissions, the old power transformer should be replaced. The paper summarizes the main method to reduce the losses of power transformers and brings up the improved Total Owning Cost (TOC) algorithm, which applies to 220 kV power transformers’ comprehensive benefit analysis. Using the improved Total Owning Cost (TOC) algorithm, based on today 220 kV energy-saving power transformer manufacturing level, the economic benefits of new energy-saving power transformer and the return period of investment are analyzed. Finally, combined with energy-saving effect, the appropriate replacement proposal of 220 kV power transformers has been given.

Vulnerability of London’s Economy to Climate Change: Sensitivity to Production Loss

A variant of the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO) has been developed to explore the sensitivity of the London economy to loss of production capacity in sectors affected by climate change related damage. The model is designed for linking to an Event Accounting Matrix (EAM) produced by climate and engineering teams, and then follow this damage through direct and indirect losses in the economy during a recovery process that is either demand-led (in which recovery of production capacity takes place only as demand recovers) or investment-led (where recovery of production capacity can precede demand). Outputs from the model are used to assess the relative vulnerability of London’s economy to production capacity (Capital stock) loss in each of the 42 economic sectors, for purposes of identifying where to most effectively allocate resources to climate change adaptation strategies or to recovery operations when used in conjunction with an EAM. Measures of impact related to GDP loss, recovery time and the ratio of indirect to direct losses are developed for these scenarios. Results show that indirect losses are a significant component of total losses, with a multiplier of between 1.3 and 2 depending on the scale of initial damage.

Co‑infection of fasciolosis and hydatidosis and their financial loss in cattle slaughtered at Wolaita Sodo municipal abattoir,southern Ethiopia

Fasciolosis and hydatidosis are the world’s most common zoonotic major parasitic ailments of domesticated animals with financial and public health implications.A cross-sectional study was conducted on 384 randomly selected cattle slaughtered at Wolaita Sodo municipal abattoir to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for co-infection of hydatidosis and fasciolosis using the ante-and postmortem examination techniques.Of the 384 examined cattle,4.17%were found to harbor co-infections of hydatidosis and fasciolosis.Similarly,the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infections was 76.56%and 23.44%in local and crossbred animals,respectively.The current study took into account risk factors such as age,breed,origin,and body condition score;however,there is a statistically insignificant association between the risk factors and the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infection.In this study,overall fasciolosis was recorded at a rate of 9.38%,with the highest prevalence of F.hepatica at 8.59%,followed by unidentified flukes at 4.17%and F.gigantica at 0.78%.Likewise,the single prevalence of hydatidosis was recorded at 10.94%.Of the 142 examined cysts,the liver alone harbors 54 cysts,and the lung alone harbors 88 cysts,with a total of 43 calcified,21 sterile,56 viable,9 nonviable,and 13 mixed cysts.The predicted yearly financial loss from organ condemnation was 15,436,142.00 ETB Birr.This study demonstrated that hydatidosis and fasciolosis are two relatively widespread parasite diseases of cattle in Ethiopia,causing significant economic loss attributable to organ rejection and indirect weight loss.Thus,awareness of the impact of the disease on the community could disrupt the parasite’s life cycle,and its economic significance was forwarded to other points.

Economic Impacts of Clinical and Sub Clinical Mastitis on Dairy Farms

Studies have reported on the economic impacts of clinical and subclinical mastitis on dairy farms.Bovine mastitis is a disorder that affects dairy farms and has a major economic impact.Most of the economic losses are the result of mastitis.Mastitis is an invasive infection that is among the most numerous and highly complicated infections in the dairy sector.Mastitis is one of the most expensive diseases in terms of production losses among animal diseases.Mastitis reduces milk production,changes milk composition,and shortens the productive life of infected cows.Farmers must concentrate on avoiding mastitis infection whilst putting in place and following a mastitis control programed.Bovine mastitis,the most significant disease of dairy herds,has huge effects on farm economics.Mastitis losses are due to reduced milk production,the cost of treatments,and culling.Major factors related to low milk yield could be low genetic potential as well as poor nutritional and managerial approaches.Most of the losses are related to somatic cell count(SCC),which is characterised by an increase in the percentage of milk.Culling costs are the costs of rearing or buying a replacement animal,mostly heifers.Overhead impacts include the replacement animals'lower milk supply effectiveness.The expense of replacing animals prematurely due to mastitis is one of the most significant areas of economic loss.

Financial Losses Associated with Bovine Brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in Carchi-Ecuador

Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.

极端降雨条件下淤地坝系溃决损失计算方法

近年来,由于自身“服役”状态欠佳和汛期极端降雨天气频发,淤地坝在发挥综合效益的同时面临着溃决风险。这对下游人民生命财产和生态环境保护造成极大威胁。因此,亟需提出极端降雨条件下淤地坝系溃决损失的定量计算方法。基于“家谱法”坝系溃决风险分析程序FT-IWHR、溃口流量程序DB-IWHR、一维洪水演进计算程序,提出淤地坝系溃决—洪水演进全过程计算方法,结合李—周法生命损失计算模型等,构建涵盖生命损失、经济损失、社会环境影响3方面的溃决损失计算方法体系;并在西五色浪流域淤地坝系进行应用。结果表明:警报时间对生命损失数量影响极大,充分警报和无警报下生命损失数量相差10倍左右且降雨量超过100年一遇后损失激增,坝系以中小型淤地坝溃决为主。溃决损失计算方法可实现对淤地坝系溃决损失进行快速量化评估,为淤地坝系安全度汛和病险坝除险加固工作提供技术支撑,同时建议西五色浪流域做好中小型淤地坝的溃决风险防控工作。

考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失评估

洪涝灾害是对我国影响最大的自然灾害之一。聚焦灾害损失评估问题,本文构建了考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数。一方面,表征灾害损失随着致灾因子强度先递增、而后增幅趋缓的静态S型曲线关系;另一方面,通过量级、形状和位置三个参数综合考虑灾害损失随时间的动态变化情况。基于《中国水旱灾害防御公报》提供的受灾人口、直接经济损失数据,对于各省级行政区2006—2021年洪涝灾害损失进行评估分析。结果表明:通过拟合洪涝灾害损失函数,洪涝灾害损失关于致灾因子强度和时间的三维空间散点图可有效地拓展成为连续的三维空间曲面及二维空间热力图。各省级行政区受灾人口整体上呈现出逐年下降的特征,但随致灾因子强度的增加而趋于增加。各省级行政区直接经济损失则表现出明显的差异,随时间呈现出大幅下降、缓慢下降和略有增加等不同特征。考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数是变化环境下灾害评估的有效工具,可为区域洪涝灾情评估提供借鉴和参考。

覆冰条件下风力发电机叶片防/除冰方法综述

覆冰地区的风力发电机叶片覆冰会导致功率损失,及时预防和治理叶片覆冰灾害,有助于保障风力发电机的安全、稳定与可靠运行。该文综述了覆冰条件下风力发电机叶片防/除冰方法的研究现状。首先,介绍了叶片覆冰的机理及覆冰特性,总结了叶片覆冰对其升力系数与阻力系数、功率损失的影响,分析了当前面临的挑战;其次,对现有叶片主动防/除冰、被动防冰及协同防/除冰方法的原理及其优缺点进行了评述,并进行了全面的对比分析;最后,从整体角度对叶片覆冰的关键科学问题及其经济可行性进行了分析,给出了未来的研究趋势,认为电热法、电脉冲法、气动脉冲法、疏冰涂层和含有电热功能的协同防/除冰方法在风力发电机叶片上极具应用前景。