A perspective on recent methods on testing predictability of asset returns

This paper highlights some recent developments in testing predictability of asset returns with focuses on linear mean regressions, quantile regressions and nonlinear regression models. For these models, when predictors are highly persistent and their innovations are contemporarily correlated with dependent variable, the ordinary least squares estimator has a finite-sample bias, and its limiting distribution relies on some unknown nuisance parameter, which is not consistently estimable. Without correcting these issues, conventional test statistics are subject to a serious size distortion and generate a misleading conclusion in testing pre- dictability of asset returns in real applications. In the past two decades, sequential studies have contributed to this subject and proposed various kinds of solutions, including, but not limit to, the bias-correction procedures, the linear projection approach, the IVX filtering idea, the variable addition approaches, the weighted empirical likelihood method, and the double-weight robust approach. Particularly, to catch up with the fast-growing literature in the recent decade, we offer a selective overview of these methods. Finally, some future research topics, such as the econometric theory for predictive regressions with structural changes, and nonparametric predictive models, and predictive models under a more general data setting, are also discussed.

Conditional Quantile Polynomial Distributed Lag Model with an Application to Rubber Price Returns

Impacts of returns on assets are not instantaneously felt, since there is lag period. In this paper we consider the problem of developing a model for the conditional QPDL （quantile polynomial distributed lag） and investigate the influences of the conditioning variables on the location, scale and shape parameters of the QPDL model. As an economic application, we consider the production of rubber and its price returns ofSri Lanka. From the analysis we observed that the QPDL model applications were better estimators than the PDL （Polynomial Distributed Lag） models.

Pricing European Options Based on a Logarithmic Truncated t-Distribution

The t-distribution has a “fat tail” feature, which is more suitable than the normal probability density function to describe the distribution characteristics of return on assets. The difficulty of using t-distribution to price European options is that a fat tail can lead to a deviation in one integral required for option pricing. We use a distribution called logarithmic truncated t-distribution to price European options. A risk neutral valuation method was used to obtain a European option pricing model with logarithmic truncated t-distribution.

An Evaluation of the Effect of Credit Risk Management （CRM） on the Profitability of Nigerian Banks

This paper assesses the effect of credit risk management （CRM） on the profitability of Nigerian banks with a view to discovering the extent to which default rate （DR）, cost per loan asset （CLA）, and capital adequacy ratio （CAR） influence return on asset （ROA） as a measure of banks＇ profitability. Data were generated from secondary sources, specifically, the annual reports and accounts of quoted banks from 2002 to 2011. Descriptive statistics, correlation, as well as random-effect generalized least square （GLS） regression techniques were utilized as tools of analysis in the study. The findings establish that CRM as measured by three independent variables has a significant positive effect on the profitability of Nigerian banks as indicated by the coefficient of determinations ＂R2 value＂ which shows the within and between values of 40.89% and 58.35% （which are impressive） while the overall R2 iS 43.91%, indicating that the variables considered in the model account for about 44% change in the dependent variable, that is, profitability. The study recommends that banks＇ management should be more scientific （application of risk evaluation techniques） in their credit risk assessment and management of loan portfolios in order to minimize the high incidence of non-performing loans and their negative effect on profitability.

Italian Banking Sector and Value Creation

The finn value is the fundamental topic of corporate finance. The value creation is the aim of economic initiatives, strategies, corporate policies, and all business activities, including banking. It depends, among other things, on size, legal form, and business model. Therefore, this paper wants to demonstrate and explain the differences about the value created in the Italian banking sector, where there is much diversity regarding size, legal form, and business model. This paper estimated and compared the value of Italian listed companies from 2010 to 2012 and found the result： Banks create more value if they are big and operate in investment banking. Furthermore, it proved that legal form hasn＇t influenced performance and value of banks.

Monetary Policy and Profitability of Commercial Banks in Uganda

Background: Economic theory suggests that monetary policy through interest rates affects bank profitability. There is limited empirical evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Objective: This study seeks to examine the effect of monetary policy on the profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Methodology: The study adopts a causal relationship research design. Data, covering 9 years from 2010-2018, was collected from all the registered commercial banks which were in operation over the study period. Various monetary policy variables are included in the empirical model as predictor variables. Return on Assets is used as a measure of bank profitability. A dynamic two-step System Generalized Method of Moments panel estimator is applied to estimate the empirical model. Findings: Estimates show that monetary policy in terms of its link to the lending rate has a significant causal effect on Return on Assets, suggesting that interest rate changes predict bank profitability of commercial banks in Uganda. Further, results show that a rise in core inflation has a significant negative causal effect on the banks’ profitability and that there is a significant lagged effect of Return on Assets. The 91-day treasury bill rate and money supply were insignificant in predicting bank profitability. Originality: Unlike previous related studies which have focused on major advanced economies and a limited number of studies which have considered only a few developing countries like Nigeria and Kenya, the current study provides empirical evidence on the link between monetary policy and commercial bank profitability in Uganda. Practical Implications: Policy makers in the financial sector may use the study results as a basis of implementation of appropriate monetary policy actions that enhance the profitability of Uganda’s commercial banks. For instance, the central bank should promote low and stable core inflation in order to enhance bank profitability, and should ensure that the monetary policy transmission to interest rates is efficient.

The Impact of Turnover Ratios on Jordanian Services Sectors＇ Performance

Profitability ratios are a group of financial ratios that indicate how much profit a business is earning within a certain context, while asset utilization ratios indicate how efficient a business is in operating its assets to generate cash. The difference between profitability ratios and turnover ratios is the fact that turnovers are more specific. While profitability ratios measure overall performance in terms of profits, asset utilization ratios focus on specific measurements within the business） We conduct this study to verify the impact of turnover ratios on Jordanian services sectors＇ performance during the period from 2009 to 2012. The study showed that there is no significant impact of turnover ratios on Jordanian services sectors＇ profitability, and by testing the main and sub hypotheses, the study revealed that there is no significant impact of turnover ratios on Jordanian services sectors＇ return on assets （ROA）, there is no significant impact of working capital turnover on Jordanian services sectors＇ ROA, there is no significant impact of total asset turnover on Jordanian services sectors＇ ROA, and there is no significant impact of fixed asset turnover on Jordanian services sectors＇ ROA. Also, the study showed that there is no significant impact of turnover ratios on Jordanian services sectors＇ return on equity （ROE）, there is no significant impact of working capital turnover on Jordanian services sectors＇ ROE, there is no significant impact of total asset turnover on Jordanian services sectors＇ ROE, and there is no significant impact of fixed asset turnover on Jordanian services sectors＇ ROE. Moreover, the study concluded that the educational services sector has the lowest working capital turnover and healthcare services sector has the highest. In addition, we find that the hotels and tourism sector has the lowest total asset turnover ratio, while the utilities and energy sector has the highest and that the hotels and tourism sector has the lowest fixed asset turnover, while the utilities and energy sector has the highest. The transportation sector has the lowest ROA and technology and communication sector has the highest. Finally, we find that transportation sector has the lowest ROE and the technology and communication sector has the highest.

Understanding the Chinese stock market:international comparison and policy implications

The definitions of the bear,sidewalk and bull markets are ambiguous in the existing literature.This makes it difficult for practitioners to distinguish between different market conditions.In this paper,we propose statistical definitions of the bear,sidewalk and bull markets,which correspond to the three states in our hidden semi-Markov model.We apply this analysis to the daily returns of the Chinese stock market and seven developed markets.Using the Viterbi algorithm to globally decode the most likely sequence of the market conditions,we systematically find the precise timing of the bear,sidewalk and bull markets for all the eight markets.Through the comparison of the estimation and decoding results,many unique characteristics of the Chinese stock market are revealed,such as‘crazy bull’,‘frequent and quick bear’and‘no buffer zone’.In China,the bull market is more volatile than in developed markets,the bear market occurs more frequently than in developed markets,and the sidewalk market has not functioned as a buffer zone since 2005.Possible causes of these unique characteristics are also discussed and implications for policy-making are suggested.