Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world,with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale warming.The past year,2022,has been no exception,with further records being broken.The year was marked by unprecedented heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent,duration and intensity,with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not seen since at least 1950.The extreme drought measured by surface soil moisture covered 47.3%of global land areas in 2022,which was the second most widespread year since 1980.Here,we examine notable events of the year in five major regions of the world:China’s Yangtze River region,western Europe,the western U.S.,the Horn of Africa and central South America.For each event,we review the potential roles of circulation,oceanic forcing(especially the“triple-dip”La Niña)and anthropogenic climate change,with an aim of understanding the extreme events in 2022 from a global perspective.This will serve as a reference for mechanism understanding,prediction and attribution of extreme events.

On the Attribution of Mercury’s Perihelion Precession

Although Newtonian gravity and general relativity predicted the precession of Mercury perihelion historically, many improved methods continue to predict the precession of Mercury during recent decades of years. Uncertainties in various predictions and observations suggest that the attribution of Mercury’s precession is still not well understood. This paper argues that the cause of Mercury’s precession is not gravity, but the inertia of material motion left over from the formation of the solar system. According to this inertia theory, the planetary precession is associated with the ratio of total mass-energy density of the system to the mass-energy of the Sun and its change over time. If other factors are not changed with time, the perihelion precession of planets per orbit is proportional to his distance relative to the Sun. The conclusions of this paper can provide more effective factor considerations for the complete description of various astronomical events and phenomena using general relativity equations.

The Role of the Fundamental Attribution Error in the Context of Human Resource Management

Attribution theories are well established in the field of social psychology.However,the transfer to the context of human resource management is still developing.Only recently,the understanding of the importance of psychological insights in this field has begun to grow.The research takes a closer look on the way individuals locate the causes of their actions.It can potentially influence important decisions in the context of human resource management.This article sheds light on the theoretical foundations,causes,and effects.

Distribution of high-risk human papillomavirus genotype prevalence and attribution to cervical precancerous lesions in rural North China

Objective: Precise prevention is more desired for cervical cancer due to the huge population, high prevalence of human papillomavirus(HPV) infection in China and the vision of screen-and-treat strategies in low-and middleincome countries(LMICs). Considerations of combining type-specific prevalence and attribution proportion to high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia are informative to more precise and effective region-specific cervical cancer prevention and control programs. The aim of the current study was to determine the genotype distribution of HPV and attribution to cervical precancerous lesions among women from rural areas in North China.Methods: A total of 9,526 women participated in the cervical cancer screening project in rural China. The samples of women who tested positive for HPV were retested with a polymerase chain reaction(PCR)-based HPV genotyping test. The attribution proportion of specific high-risk human papillomavirus(HR-HPV) types for different grades of cervical lesions was calculated by using the type contribution weighting method.Results: A total of 22.2%(2,112/9,526) of women were HR-HPV positive and HPV52(21.7%) was the most common HR-HPV genotype, followed by HPV58(18.2%), HPV53(18.2%) and HPV16(16.2%). The top three genotypes detected in HR-HPV-positive cervical intraepithelial neoplasia(CIN)1 were HPV16(36.7%), HPV58(20.4%), HPV56(15.3%). Among CIN2+, the most frequent genotypes were HPV16(75.6%), HPV52(17.8%),HPV58(16.7%). HPV16, 56, 58, 53, 52, 59, 68, and 18 combined were attributed to 84.17% of all CIN1 lesions,and HPV16, 58, and 52 combined were attributed to 86.98% of all CIN2+ lesions.Conclusions: The prevalence of HR-HPV infection among women from rural areas in North China was high and HPV16, HPV58, HPV52 had paramount attributable fraction in CIN2+. Type-specific HPV prevalence and attribution proportion to cervical precancerous lesions should be taken into consideration in the development of vaccines and strategy for screening in this population.

Documented changes in annual runoff and attribution since the 1950s within selected rivers in China

To enable local water resource management and maintenance of ecosystem integrity and to protect and mitigate against flood and drought, it is necessary to determine changes in long-term series of streamflow and to distinguish the roles that climate change and human disturbance play in these changes. A review of previous research on the detection and attribution of observed changes in annual runoff in China shows a decrease in annual runoff since the 1950s in northern China in areas such as the Songhuajiang River water resources zone, the Liaohe River water resources zone, the Haihe River water resources zone, the Yellow River water resources zone, and the Huaihe River water resources Zone. Furthermore, abrupt changes in annual runoff occurred mostly in the 1970s and 1980s in all the above zones, except for some of the sub-basins in the middle Yellow River where abrupt change occurred in the 1990s. Changes in annual runoff are found to be mainly caused by climate change in the western Songhuajiang River basin, the upper mainstream of the Yangtze River, and the western Pearl River basin, which shows that studies on the impact of climate change on future water resources under different climate change scenarios are required to enable planning and management by agencies in these river basins. However, changes in annual runoff were found to be mainly caused by human activities in most of the catchments in northern China (such as the southern Songhuajiang River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, the lower reach and some of the catchments within the middle Yellow River basin) and in middle-eastern China, such as the Huaihe River and lower mainstream of the Yangtze River. This suggests that current hydro-climatic data can continue to be used in water-use planning and that policymakers need to focus on water resource management and protection.

Attribution of the Langshan Tectonic Belt: Evidence from zircon U-Pb ages and Hf isotope compositions

This study describes a previously unidentified Neoproterozoic mafic dyke emplaced in the northern flank of the Langshan Tectonic Belt. This dyke intruded into the micaquartz schist of the Zhaertaishan Group, and yielded an age of 908 ± 8 Ma. The youngest U-Pb ages of micaquartz schist from the Zhaertaishan Group in the Langshan area were 1118 ± 33 Ma,1187 ± 3 Ma and 1189 ± 39 Ma,suggesting that the depositional age of the protolith of the schist was between 908 ± 8 Ma and 1118 ± 33 Ma. In addition, 436 U-Pb age data and 155 Lu-Hf isotopic data from six samples in the Langshan Tectonic Belt and one Permian greywacke from the Wuhai area show distinct differences between the northern and southern flanks of the Main Langshan area. The U-Pb ages of the northern flank are primarily Meso-Neoproterozoic; similar ages have not been identified in the southern flank to date.Moreover, two-stage Hf model ages of the northern flank feature three age peaks at ～900 Ma,～1700 Ma and ～2600 Ma; this differs from Hf model ages of the southern flank, which feature one strong age peak at ～2700 Ma. These results suggest that the northern and southern flanks of the Main Langshan area have different geochronologic characteristics and should be divided further. Based on the U-Pb ages and Hf model ages, the northern and southern flanks of the Main Langshan area are named the North and South Langshan Tectonic Belts. Comparison of the U-Pb age and two-stage Hf model age distributions from the North Langshan Tectonic Belt, South Langshan Tectonic Belt, Alxa Block and the North China Craton(NCC) reveal that the North Langshan Tectonic Belt is similar to the Alxa Block and that the South Langshan Tectonic Belt is similar to the NCC. In addition, the zircon U-Pb age of 860 ±7 Ma commonly observed in the Alxa Block was detected in the Permian greywacke from the Wuhai area of the NCC, which suggests that the amalgamation of the North and South Langshan Tectonic belts(i.e.,the amalgamation of the Alxa Block and the NCC), occurred between Devonian and late Permian.

Forest disturbances and the attribution derived from yearly Landsat time series over 1990–2020 in the Hengduan Mountains Region of Southwest China

Background:Natural forests in the Hengduan Mountains Region(HDMR)have pivotal ecological functions and provide diverse ecosystem services.Capturing long-term forest disturbance and drivers at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable forest management and biodiversity conservation.Methods:We used 30-m resolution Landsat time series images and the LandTrendr algorithm on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform to map forest disturbances at an annual time scale between 1990 and 2020 and attributed causal agents of forest disturbance,including fire,logging,road construction and insects,using disturbance properties and spectral and topographic variables in the random forest model.Results:The conventional and area-adjusted overall accuracies(OAs)of the forest disturbance map were 92.3% and 97.70%±0.06%,respectively,and the OA of mapping disturbance agents was 85.80%.The estimated disturbed forest area totalled 3313.13 km^(2)(approximately 2.31% of the total forest area in 1990)from 1990 to 2020,with considerable interannual fluctuations and significant regional differences.The predominant disturbance agent was fire,which comprised approximately 83.33% of the forest area disturbance,followed by logging(12.2%),insects(2.4%)and road construction(2.0%).Massive forest disturbances occurred mainly before 2000,and the post-2000 annual disturbance area significantly dropped by 55% compared with the pre-2000 value.Conclusions:This study provided spatially explicit and retrospective information on annual forest disturbance and associated agents in the HDMR.The findings suggest that China’s logging bans in natural forests combined with other forest sustainability programmes have effectively curbed forest disturbances in the HDMR,which has implications for enhancing future forest management and biodiversity conservation.

Comparative Study of Attribution Theory on Academic Achievements of Minority Students in China and the US

Ethnic Minorities account for a small proportion of a country's total population,but play an important role in the country's development in almost all aspects.China,with a total population of 1.3 billion(National Bureau of Statistics of China,2003),is the most populous country in the world.Among the total 56 ethnic groups,Han ethnic group has the greatest popula tion.Since 2000,the total population of other 55 ethnic groups is 106.43 million,accounts for 8.41% of the total population of the whole country(Information Office of the State Council of the PRC,2009).The illiteracy rate among minority students was always high,and even over 95% before 1949(Information Office of the State Council of the PRC,2000).The learning achieve ment gap between majority and minority students do exist,and has been one of the biggest problems for the further development of education in China.

Effects of attribution retraining on the perceived career barriers of undergraduate nursing students

Background/purpose:To evaluate the effects of attribution retraining on the perceived career barriers of undergraduate nursing students and to foster positive attributional styles.Methods:Ninety-four undergraduate nursing students were recruited and randomly divided into two groups:the attribution retraining group and the control group.All students were assessed by the perceived career barriers inventory before and after the eight-week study.Results:Attribution retraining significantly influenced the students'perceived career barriers.The mean scores of vocational knowledge,professional knowledge,and social ability of the experimental group were significantly reduced compared to the control group(p<0.05).Conclusion:Attribution retraining provides opportunities for improving the undergraduate nursing students'vocational knowledge,professional knowledge,and social ability.Attribution retraining should be encouraged in undergraduate nursing programs in order to reduce the nursing shortage in China's Mainland.

Granger Causality Analyses for Climatic Attribution

This review paper focuses on the application of the Granger causality technique to the study of the causes of recent global warming (a case of climatic attribution). A concise but comprehensive review is performed and particular attention is paid to the direct role of anthropogenic and natural forcings, and to the influence of patterns of natural variability. By analyzing both in-sample and out-of-sample results, clear evidences are obtained (e.g., the major role of greenhousegases radiative forcing in driving temperature, a recent causal decoupling between solar irradiance and temperature itself) together with interesting prospects of further research.

Research progress on the application of attribution retraining in nursing education in China

Attribution Retraining is a hot research topic in the field of psychology and pedagogy,and has been paid more and more attention in the field of nursing education in recent years.This study comprehensively retrieved attribution retraining related literature from Chinese and English databases and used literature analysis method to summarize the theoretical basis,assessment tools and application of attribution retraining in nursing education in China.The aim of this review is to promote the wider application of attribution retraining in the field of nursing education and provide reference for cultivating more excellent nursing talents.

Time-series variation and attribution analysis of downward shortwave radiation over the Yunnan-Kweichow plateau from 1984 to 2018

The downward shortwave radiation(DSR)is a key input parameter for land surface models and climate models.Based on the daily averaged Global Land Surface Satellite downward shortwave radiation(GLASS-DSR)dataset over the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau(YKP)from 1984 to 2018,this paper analyzes variation trend and breakpoints of DSR.The results show that:annual averaged DSR decreases at a decreasing rate of-1.84 W·m^(-2)·decade^(-1) over the YKP from 1984 to 2018;the overall distribution of interannual averaged DSR shows higher in the mid-west,and gradually decreasing from west to northeast over the YKP;the estimated averaged DSR is larger in spring than in summer due to the influence of the monsoon;monthly averaged DSR reaches its maximum in May and its minimum in December;breakpoints are found in the seasonal and trend components of daily averaged DSR.Eleven driving factors are examined for their effects on DSR variation,including annual average temperature,precipitation,10 m wind speed,aerosol optical thickness(AOT),total cloud cover,elevation,slope,aspect,longitude,latitude,and climate zones.According to thefindings,AOT predominates in the spatio-temporal distribution of DSR over the YKP.This study will contribute to studies related to climate change and highland radiation.

Reflection on the equitable attribution of responsibility for artificial intelligence-assisted diagnosis and treatment decisions

Artificial intelligence(AI)is developing rapidly and is being used in several medical capacities,including assisting in diagnosis and treatment decisions.As a result,this raises the conceptual and practical problem of how to distribute responsibility when AI-assisted diagnosis and treatment have been used and patients are harmed in the process.Regulations on this issue have not yet been established.It would be beneficial to tackle responsibility attribution prior to the development of biomedical AI technologies and ethical guidelines.In general,human doctors acting as superiors need to bear responsibility for their clinical decisions.However,human doctors should not bear responsibility for the behavior of an AI doctor that is practicing medicine inde-pendently.According to the degree of fault-which includes internal institutional ethics,the AI bidding process in procurement,and the medical process-clinical institutions are required to bear corresponding responsibility.AI manufacturers are responsible for creating accurate algorithms,network security,and insuring patient privacy protection.However,the AI itself should not be subjected to legal evaluation since there is no need for it to bear responsibility.Corresponding responsibility should be borne by the employer,in this case the medical institution.

Runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1960 to 2020 and its driving factors

Analysing runoff changes and how these are affected by climate change and human activities is deemed crucial to elucidate the ecological and hydrological response mechanisms of rivers.The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration and the Range of Variability Approach(IHA-RVA)method,as well as the ecological indicator method,were employed to quantitatively assess the degree of hydrologic change and ecological response processes in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020.Using Budyko's water heat coupling balance theory,the relative contributions of various driving factors(such as precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and underlying surface)to runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin were quantitatively evaluated.The results show that the annual average runoff and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin had a downwards trend,whereas the potential evapotranspiration exhibited an upwards trend from 1960 to 2020.In approximately 1985,it was reported that the hydrological regime of the main stream underwent an abrupt change.The degree of hydrological change was observed to gradually increase from upstream to downstream,with a range of 34.00%-54.00%,all of which are moderate changes.However,significant differences have been noted among different ecological indicators,with a fluctuation index of 90.00%at the outlet of downstream hydrological stations,reaching a high level of change.After the mutation,the biodiversity index of flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River was generally lower than that in the base period.The research results also indicate that the driving factor for runoff changes in the upper reach of the Yellow River Basin is mainly precipitation,with a contribution rate of 39.31%-54.70%.Moreover,the driving factor for runoff changes in the middle and lower reaches is mainly human activities,having a contribution rate of 63.70%-84.37%.These results can serve as a basis to strengthen the protection and restoration efforts in the Yellow River Basin and further promote the rational development and use of water resources in the Yellow River.

Using a Game to Engage Stakeholders in Extreme Event Attribution Science

The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing,and climate change can exacerbate many disasters.Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and stakeholders to work together.But dialogue between scientists and policymakers can be challenging given the inherently multidimensional nature of the issues at stake when managing climate risks.Building on the growing use of serious games to create dialogue between stakeholders,we present a new game for policymakers called Climate Attribution Under Loss and Damage:Risking,Observing,Negotiating(CAULDRON).CAULDRON aims to communicate understanding of the science attributing extreme events to climate change in a memorable and compelling way,and create space for dialogue around policy decisions addressing changing risks and loss and damage from climate change.We describe the process of developing CAULDRON,and draw on observations of players and their feedback to demonstrate its potential to facilitate the interpretation of probabilistic climate information and the understanding of its relevance to informing policy.Scientists looking to engage with stakeholders can learn valuable lessons in adopting similar innovative approaches.The suitability of games depends on the policy context but,if used appropriately,experiential learning can drive coproduced understanding and meaningful dialogue.

Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China

Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley and droughts/warmer in North China forthe last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both natural climate variability and human activitiesare considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to the natural climate variability, such as decadal andinterdecadal variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall andtemperature changes in China, abrupt climate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signalsproduced by the human activities such as greenhouse gases and "brown clouds" likely play the role for thepatterns. But the physical feedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researchesshould be carried out in future to solve this issue.

Source attribution for mercury deposition with an updated atmospheric mercury emission inventory in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

We used CMAQ-Hg to simulate mercury pollution and identify main sources in the Pearl River Delta (PR.D) with updated local emission inventory and latest regional and global emissions. The total anthropogenic mercury emissions in the PRD for 2014 were 11,939.6 kg. Power plants and industrial boilers were dominant sectors, responsible for 29.4 and 22.7%. We first compared model predictions and observations and the results showed a good performance. Then five scenarios with power plants (PP), municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI), industrial point sources (IP), natural sources (NAT), and boundary conditions (BCs) zeroed out separately were simulated and compared with the base case. BCs was responsible for over 30% of annual average mercury concentration and total deposition while NAT contributed around 15%. Among the anthropogenic sources, IP (22.9%) was dominant with a contribution over 20.0% and PP (18.9%) and MSWI (11.2%) ranked second and third. Results also showed that power plants were the most important emission sources in the central PRD, where the ultra-low emission for thermal power units need to be strengthened. In the northern and western PRD, cement and metal productions were priorities for mercury control. The fast growth of municipal solid waste incineration were also a key factor in the core areas. In addition, a coordinated regional mercury emission control was important for effectively controlling pollution. In the future, mercury emissions will decrease as control measures are strengthened, more attention should be paid to mercury deposition around the large point sources as high levels of pollution are observed.

Detection and Attribution of Changes in Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events over Northeastern China with CMIP6 Models

Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development.This study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings.A probability-based index(PI)is constructed through the joint probability distribution to measure the severity of CHDE,with lower values representing more severe cases.Response of CHDE to external forcing was assessed with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The results show a significant increase in the severity of CHDE over northeastern China during the past decades.The trend of regional averaged PI is-0.28(90%confidence interval:-0.43 to-0.13)per 54 yr and it is well reproduced in the historical forcing simulations.The attribution method of optimal fingerprinting was firstly applied to a two-signal configuration with anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing;the anthropogenic impact was robustly detected and it explains most of the observed trend of PI.Similarly,three-signal analysis further demonstrated that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases dominantly contribute to the observed change,while the anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing have almost no contribution to the observed changes.For a compound event concurrently exceeding the 95 th percentile of surface air temperature and precipitation reversal in the current period,its likelihood exhibits little change at 1.5℃global warming,but almost doubled at 2.0℃global warming.

An Updated Review of Event Attribution Approaches

There have been considerable high-impact extreme events occurring around the world in the context of climate change.Event attribution studies,which seek to quantitatively answer whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the characteristics-predominantly the probability and magnitude-of particular events,have been gaining increasing interest within the research community.This paper reviews the latest approaches used in event attribution studies through a new classification into three major categories according to how the event attribution question is framed-namely,the risk-based approach,the storyline approach,and the combined approach.Four approaches in the risk-based framing category and three in the storyline framing category are also reviewed in detail.The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed.Particular attention is paid to the ability,suitability,and applicability of these approaches in attributing extreme events in China,a typical monsoonal region where climate models may not perform well.Most of these approaches are applicable in China,and some are more suitable for analyzing temperature events.There is no right or wrong among these approaches,but different approaches have different framings.The uncertainties in attribution results come from several aspects,including different categories of framing,different conditions in climate model approaches,different models,different definitions of the event,and different observational data used.Clarification of these aspects can help to understand the differences in attribution results from different studies.

The underlying mechanism of variety–water–nitrogen–stubble damage interactions on yield formation in ratoon rice with low stubble height under mechanized harvesting

Agronomic measures are the key to promote the sustainable development of ratoon rice by reducing the damage from mechanical crushing to the residual stubble of the main crop, thereby mitigating the impact on axillary bud sprouting and yield formation in ratoon rice. This study used widely recommended conventional rice Jiafuzhan and hybrid rice Yongyou 2640 as the test materials to conduct a four-factor block design field experiment in a greenhouse of the experimental farm of Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University, China from 2018 to 2019.The treatments included fertilization and no fertilization, alternate wetting and drying irrigation and continuous water flooding irrigation, and plots with and without artificial crushing damage on the rice stubble. At the same time, a 13C stable isotope in-situ detection technology was used to fertilize the pot experiment. The results showed significant interactions among varieties, water management, nitrogen application and stubble status.Relative to the long-term water flooding treatment, the treatment with sequential application of nitrogen fertilizer coupled with moderate field drought for root-vigor and tiller promotion before and after harvesting of the main crop, significantly improved the effective tillers from low position nodes. This in turn increased the effective panicles per plant and grains per panicle by reducing the influence of artificial crushing damage on rice stubble and achieving a high yield of the regenerated rice. Furthermore, the partitioning of 13C assimilates to the residual stubble and its axillary buds were significantly improved at the mature stage of the main crop, while the translocation rate to roots and rhizosphere soil was reduced at the later growth stage of ratooning season rice. This was triggered by the metabolism of hormones and polyamines at the stem base regulated by the interaction of water and fertilizer at this time. We therefore suggest that to achieve a high yield of ratoon rice with low stubble height under mechanized harvesting, the timely application of nitrogen fertilizer is fundamental,coupled with moderate field drying for root-vigor preservation and tiller promotion before and after the mechanical harvesting of the main crop.