Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural c...Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.展开更多
During phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the Asian climate was estimated from July 1988 to December 1998 using six climate models. In this paper, the abilities of six c...During phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the Asian climate was estimated from July 1988 to December 1998 using six climate models. In this paper, the abilities of six climate models to simulate several important ex- treme climate events in China during the last years of the last century were analyzed. The modeled results for the intensity of the precipitation anomaly over the Yang- tze-Huaihe Valley during the summers of 1991 and 1998 were weaker than the observed values. The positive pre- cipitation anomaly responsible for a catastrophic flood in 1991 was well reproduced in almost all simulation results, but the intensity and range of the precipitation anomaly in 1998 were weaker in the modeled results. The spatial dis- tribution of extreme climate events in 1997, when severe drought affected North China and flood impacted South China, was reproduced by most of the regional models because the anomaly of the large-scale background field was well-simulated, despite poor simulation of high temperature areas in the north during the summer by all models.展开更多
On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the concept...On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the conception of ratio of peak runoff. Main characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang are as follows： 1） The western Zhejiang region is plum rain major control area, and the eastern coastal region of Zhejiang is typhoon major control area. 2） Within a long period in the future, Zhejiang will be in the long period that features droughts. 3） In Zhejiang the 17th century was frequent drought and flood period, the 16th, 19th, and 20th centuries were normal periods, while the 18th century was spasmodic drought and flood period. 4） The severe and medium floods in Zhejiang were all centered around the M-or m-year of the 11-year sunspot activity period. 5） There are biggish years of annual runoff occurred in E1 Nifio year （E） or the following year （E＋1） in Zhejiang. The near future evolution trend of droughts and floods in Zhejiang is as follows： 1） Within a relatively long period in the future, Zhejiang Province will be in the long period of mostly drought years. 2） Between 1999 and 2009 this area will feature drought years mainly, while the period of 2010-2020 will feature flood years mostly. 3） Zhejiang has a good response to the sunspot activities, and the years around 2009, 2015, and 2020 must be given due attention, especially around 2020 there might be an extremely severe flood year in Zhejiang. 4） Floods in Zhejiang have good response to El Nifio events, in El Nifio year or the following year much attention must be paid to. And 5） In the future, the first, second, and third severe typhoon years in Zhejiang will be 2009. 2012. and 2015. resnectivelv.展开更多
文摘Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences of China (Grant No.2009CB723904)the General Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40975048)the Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KGCX2-YW-356)
文摘During phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the Asian climate was estimated from July 1988 to December 1998 using six climate models. In this paper, the abilities of six climate models to simulate several important ex- treme climate events in China during the last years of the last century were analyzed. The modeled results for the intensity of the precipitation anomaly over the Yang- tze-Huaihe Valley during the summers of 1991 and 1998 were weaker than the observed values. The positive pre- cipitation anomaly responsible for a catastrophic flood in 1991 was well reproduced in almost all simulation results, but the intensity and range of the precipitation anomaly in 1998 were weaker in the modeled results. The spatial dis- tribution of extreme climate events in 1997, when severe drought affected North China and flood impacted South China, was reproduced by most of the regional models because the anomaly of the large-scale background field was well-simulated, despite poor simulation of high temperature areas in the north during the summer by all models.
基金Under the auspices of Zhejiang Provincial ScienceTechnology Foundation of China(No.2006C23066)
文摘On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the conception of ratio of peak runoff. Main characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang are as follows： 1） The western Zhejiang region is plum rain major control area, and the eastern coastal region of Zhejiang is typhoon major control area. 2） Within a long period in the future, Zhejiang will be in the long period that features droughts. 3） In Zhejiang the 17th century was frequent drought and flood period, the 16th, 19th, and 20th centuries were normal periods, while the 18th century was spasmodic drought and flood period. 4） The severe and medium floods in Zhejiang were all centered around the M-or m-year of the 11-year sunspot activity period. 5） There are biggish years of annual runoff occurred in E1 Nifio year （E） or the following year （E＋1） in Zhejiang. The near future evolution trend of droughts and floods in Zhejiang is as follows： 1） Within a relatively long period in the future, Zhejiang Province will be in the long period of mostly drought years. 2） Between 1999 and 2009 this area will feature drought years mainly, while the period of 2010-2020 will feature flood years mostly. 3） Zhejiang has a good response to the sunspot activities, and the years around 2009, 2015, and 2020 must be given due attention, especially around 2020 there might be an extremely severe flood year in Zhejiang. 4） Floods in Zhejiang have good response to El Nifio events, in El Nifio year or the following year much attention must be paid to. And 5） In the future, the first, second, and third severe typhoon years in Zhejiang will be 2009. 2012. and 2015. resnectivelv.
