Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Cross Validation Based Model Averaging for Varying-Coefficient Models with Response Missing at Random

In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed method is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum squared error.

Solving Multi-Objective Linear Programming Problem by Statistical Averaging Method with the Help of Fuzzy Programming Method

A multi-objective linear programming problem is made from fuzzy linear programming problem. It is due the fact that it is used fuzzy programming method during the solution. The Multi objective linear programming problem can be converted into the single objective function by various methods as Chandra Sen’s method, weighted sum method, ranking function method, statistical averaging method. In this paper, Chandra Sen’s method and statistical averaging method both are used here for making single objective function from multi-objective function. Two multi-objective programming problems are solved to verify the result. One is numerical example and the other is real life example. Then the problems are solved by ordinary simplex method and fuzzy programming method. It can be seen that fuzzy programming method gives better optimal values than the ordinary simplex method.

Time Synchronous Averaging Based on Cross-power Spectrum

Periodic components are of great significance for fault diagnosis and health monitoring of rotating machinery.Time synchronous averaging is an effective and convenient technique for extracting those components.However,the performance of time synchronous averaging is seriously limited when the separate segments are poorly synchronized.This paper proposes a new averaging method capable of extracting periodic components without external reference and an accurate period to solve this problem.With this approach,phase detection and compensation eliminate all segments'phase differences,which enables the segments to be well synchronized.The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by numerical and experimental signals.

Response of Growing Season Gross Primary Production to El Nino in Different Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over Eastern China Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Gross primary production(GPP) plays a crucial part in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems.A set of validated monthly GPP data from 1957 to 2010 in 0.5°× 0.5° grids of China was weighted from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).The spatial anomalies of detrended BMA GPP during the growing seasons of typical El Nino years indicated that GPP response to El Nino varies with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases: when the PDO was in the cool phase,it was likely that GPP was greater in northern China(32°–38°N,111°–122°E) and less in the Yangtze River valley(28°–32°N,111°–122°E);in contrast,when PDO was in the warm phase,the GPP anomalies were usually reversed in these two regions.The consistent spatiotemporal pattern and high partial correlation revealed that rainfall dominated this phenomenon.The previously published findings on how El Nino during different phases of PDO affecting rainfall in eastern China make the statistical relationship between GPP and El Nino in this study theoretically credible.This paper not only introduces an effective way to use BMA in grids that have mixed plant function types,but also makes it possible to evaluate the carbon cycle in eastern China based on the prediction of El Nino and PDO.

A modified averaging scheme with application to the secondary Hopf bifurcation of a delayed van der Pol oscillator

In this paper, a modified averaging scheme is presented for a class of time-delayed vibration systems with slow variables. The new scheme is a combination of the averaging techniques proposed by Hale and by Lehman and Weibel, respectively. The averaged equation obtained from the modified scheme is simple enough but it retains the required information for the local nonlinear dynamics around an equilibrium. As an application of the present method, the delay value for which a secondary Hopf bifurcation occurs is successfully located for a delayed van der Pol oscillator.

Stochastic averaging method for estimating first-passage statistics of stochastically excited Duffing-Rayleigh-Mathieu system

The first-passage statistics of Duffing-Rayleigh- Mathieu system under wide-band colored noise excitations is studied by using stochastic averaging method. The motion equation of the original system is transformed into two time homogeneous diffusion Markovian processes of amplitude and phase after stochastic averaging. The diffusion process method for first-passage problem is used and the corresponding backward Kolmogorov equation and Pontryagin equation are constructed and solved to yield the conditional reliability function and mean first-passage time with suitable initial and boundary conditions. The analytical results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulation.

Studies on Stochastic Parametric Roll of Ship with Stochastic Averaging Method

The paper studies the parametric stochastic roll motion in the random waves.The differential equation of the ship parametric roll under random wave is established with considering the nonlinear damping and ship speed.Random sea surface is treated as a narrow-band stochastic process,and the stochastic parametric excitation is studied based on the effective wave theory.The nonlinear restored arm function obtained from the numerical simulation is expressed as the approximate analytic function.By using the stochastic averaging method,the differential equation of motion is transformed into Ito’s stochastic differential equation.The steady-state probability density function of roll motion is obtained,and the results are validated with the numerical simulation and model test.

Generalized ordered weighted averaging operators based methods for MADM in intuitionistic fuzzy set setting

Multiattribute decision making（MADM） problems, in which the weights and ratings of alternatives are expressed with intuitionistic fuzzy（IF） sets, are investigated.Firstly, the relative degrees of membership and the relative degrees of non-membership are formulated as IF sets, the weights and values of alternatives on both qualitative and quantitative attributes may be expressed as IF sets in a unified way.Then a MADM method based on generalized ordered weighted averaging operators is proposed.The proposed method is illustrated with a numerical example.

Research on the Error Averaging Effect in A Rolling Guide Pair

By studying the e ects of geometric precision on kinematic accuracy, an error mapping model has been established, based on the hypothesis that a motion pair and its installation surface are rigid. However, when using this assumption,there is a significant error induced in high-precision computer numerical control(CNC) machine tools as compared with reality. One of the most important reasons for this error is failing to consider the error averaging e ect of motion pair elements. Therefore, this work examines a high-precision horizontal machining center as its research object, and analyzes the error averaging mechanism of a rolling guide pair under a deformation of the rolling elements. The carriage bearing forces caused by guideway straightness errors are obtained by constructing a geometric error model of a single carriage. The relationship between guideway straightness errors and carriage bearing forces is described by a transfer function in the spatial frequency domain, and its characteristics are analyzed. It quantifies the so-called error averaging e ect of the rolling guide system and, on this basis, a static model for four carriages is established to reflect the error averaging e ect of the rolling guide pair on the position and orientation errors of the motion pair. In addition, it is found that the wavelengths and phase di erences of guideway errors a ect this error averaging mechanism, but the amplitude and preload have little influence thereon. The experiment result shows that the kinematic straightness errors in the x-and y-directions were approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of the guideway straightness errors in the corresponding directions. The results can be used to guide the precision design and assembly of machine tools.

Linear goal programming approach to obtaining the weights of intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted averaging operator

The multiple attribute decision making problems are studied, in which the information about attribute weights is partly known and the attribute values take the form of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. The operational laws of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are introduced, and the score function and accuracy function are presented to compare the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. The intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted averaging （IFOWA） operator which is an extension of the well-known ordered weighted averaging （OWA） operator is investigated to aggregate the intuitionistic fuzzy information. In order to determine the weights of intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted averaging operator, a linear goal programming procedure is proposed for learning the weights from data. Finally, an example is illustrated to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the developed method.

Flexible Time Domain Averaging Technique

Time domain averaging(TDA) is essentially a comb filter,it cannot extract the specified harmonics which may be caused by some faults,such as gear eccentric.Meanwhile,TDA always suffers from period cutting error(PCE) to different extent.Several improved TDA methods have been proposed,however they cannot completely eliminate the waveform reconstruction error caused by PCE.In order to overcome the shortcomings of conventional methods,a flexible time domain averaging(FTDA) technique is established,which adapts to the analyzed signal through adjusting each harmonic of the comb filter.In this technique,the explicit form of FTDA is first constructed by frequency domain sampling.Subsequently,chirp Z-transform(CZT) is employed in the algorithm of FTDA,which can improve the calculating efficiency significantly.Since the signal is reconstructed in the continuous time domain,there is no PCE in the FTDA.To validate the effectiveness of FTDA in the signal de-noising,interpolation and harmonic reconstruction,a simulated multi-components periodic signal that corrupted by noise is processed by FTDA.The simulation results show that the FTDA is capable of recovering the periodic components from the background noise effectively.Moreover,it can improve the signal-to-noise ratio by 7.9 dB compared with conventional ones.Experiments are also carried out on gearbox test rigs with chipped tooth and eccentricity gear,respectively.It is shown that the FTDA can identify the direction and severity of the eccentricity gear,and further enhances the amplitudes of impulses by 35%.The proposed technique not only solves the problem of PCE,but also provides a useful tool for the fault symptom extraction of rotating machinery.

AN AVERAGING PRINCIPLE FOR STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL DELAY EQUATIONS DRIVEN BY TIME-CHANGED LéVY NOISE

In this paper,we aim to derive an averaging principle for stochastic differential equations driven by time-changed Lévy noise with variable delays.Under certain assumptions,we show that the solutions of stochastic differential equations with time-changed Lévy noise can be approximated by solutions of the associated averaged stochastic differential equations in mean square convergence and in convergence in probability,respectively.The convergence order is also estimated in terms of noise intensity.Finally,an example with numerical simulation is given to illustrate the theoretical result.

Improving microwave brightness temperature predictions based on Bayesian model averaging ensemble approach

The choices of the parameterizations for each component in a microwave emission model have significant effects on the quality of brightness temperature （Tb） sim- ulation. How to reduce the uncertainty in the Tb simulation is investigated by adopting a statistical post-processing procedure with the Bayesian model averaging （BMA） ensemble approach. The simulations by the community microwave emission model （CMEM） cou- pled with the community land model version 4.5 （CLM4.5） over China's Mainland are con- ducted by the 24 configurations from four vegetation opacity parameterizations （VOPs）, three soil dielectric constant parameterizations （SDCPs）, and two soil roughness param- eterizations （SRPs）. Compared with the simple arithmetical averaging （SAA） method, the BMA reconstructions have a higher spatial correlation coefficient （larger than 0.99） than the C-band satellite observations of the advanced microwave scanning radiometer on the Earth observing system （AMSR-E） at the vertical polarization. Moreover, the BMA product performs the best among the ensemble members for all vegetation classes, with a mean root-mean-square difference （RMSD） of 4 K and a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.64.

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains（TKM） based on the general circulation model（GCM） simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging（BMA） technique. Results show that（1） BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;（2） at the end of the 21^（st） century（2070–2099） under RCP8.5, compared to the control period（1976–2005）, annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;（3） precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and（4） snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.

Fast acquisition of L2C CL codes based on combination of hyper codes and averaging correlation

This paper provides a direct and fast acquisition algorithm of civilian long length（CL） codes in the L2 civil（L2C） signal. The proposed algorithm simultaneously reduces the number of fast Fourier transformation（FFT） correlation through hyper code technique and the amount of points in every FFT correlation by using an averaging correlation method. To validate the proposed acquisition performance, the paper applies this algorithm to the real L2C signal collected by the global positioning system（GPS） L2C intermediate frequency（IF） signal sampler—SIS100L2C. The acquisition results show that the proposed modified algorithm can acquire the code phase accurately with less calculation and its acquisition performance is better than the single hyper code method.

Averaging analyses for spacecraft orbital motions around asteroids

This paper summarizes a few cases of spacecraft orbital motion around asteroid for which averaging method can be applied, i.e., when central body rotates slowly, fast, and when a spacecraft is near to the resonant orbits between the spacecraft mean motion and the central body＇s rotation. Averaging conditions for these cases are given. As a major extension, a few classes of near resonant orbits are analyzed by the averaging method. Then some resulted conclusions of these averaging analyses are applied to understand the stabil- ity regions in a numerical experiment. Some stability conclu- sions are obtained. As a typical example, it is shown in detail that near circular 1 ： 2 resonant orbit is always unstable.

Linewidth of electromagnetically induced transparency under motional averaging in a coated vapor cell

The linewidth of electromagnetically induced transparency（EIT） in a coated Rb vapor cell was studied under a magnetic field gradient.The nonlinear broadening of the EIT linewidth with the magnetic field gradient was observed.It was found that the motional averaging of the field gradient was more pronounced at higher laser intensities and larger beam sizes.In the same regime,there was a small linewidth decrease with the increasing magnetic field gradient.We have established a Monte-Carlo model,which gave results in good qualitative agreement with our experiment.Physics pictures for the above phenomena were also suggested.These results provide an understanding of the EIT linewidth behavior under motional averaging,and should be useful for applications in quantum optics and metrology based on coated vapor cells.

Diffuse transmitted spectroscopy in conjunction with spectral peak averaging as a potential tool for noninvasive creatinine screening

Creatinine(Cr)is a biochemical waste molecule generated from muscle metabolism and primarily cleared from the bloodstream by the kidneys.If kidney function declines,Cr levels in the blood tend to increase.Therefore,Cr serves as an indicator of kidney function.In this work,we present a simple method for the rapid screening for impaired renal function based on the subject's Cr concentration.In our setup,broadband white light is delivered to a finger clamp through a fiber-optic cable to illuminate the patient's finger.The light is transmitted through the finger and collected by a second optical fiber coupled to a visible-near-infrared(VisNIR)spectrometer which covers the spectral range from 400nm to 1100nm.During the calibration process,the transmitted spectra acquired from 60 patients were measured.An average was calculated using the peak level of the transmitted,diffused intensity at three different wavelengths to create a"Cr intensity index".Patients were divided into five groups according to their Cr concentration levels,ranging from 1 mg/dL to 13 mg/dL.Our observations indicated that each group featured a unique spectral fingerprint.Next,we tested the index on 20 patients not included in the cali-bration procedure(unknown samples).We were able to classify patients into groups according to their Cr level with moderate prediction accuracy(R^(2)=0.55)and mean screening error of up to 16%.Future efforts will evaluate the accuracy of this approach with larger patient populations representing a broad range of Cr concentration.Still,this preliminary work is an essential step toward developing this useful noninvasive Cr screening platform using NIR light spectroscopy.

Ultraconvergence for averaging discontinuous finite elements and its applications in Hamiltonian system

This paper discusses the k-degree averaging discontinuous finite element solution for the initial value problem of ordinary differential equations. When k is even, the averaging numerical flux （the average of left and right limits for the discontinuous finite element at nodes） has the optimal-order ultraconvergence 2k ＋ 2. For nanlinear Hamiltonian systems （e.g., SchrSdinger equation and Kepler system） with momentum conservation, the discontinuous finite element methods preserve momentum at nodes. These properties are confirmed by numerical experiments.