Optimal Insurance with Background Risk under the Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity Structure

In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.

A High-Moment Trapezoidal Fuzzy Random Portfolio Model with Background Risk

In most exiting portfolio selection models, security returns are assumed to have random or fuzzy distributions. However, uncertainties exist in actual financial markets. Markets are associated not only with inherent risk, but also with background risk that results from the differences among individual investors. This paper investigated the compliance of stock yields to the fuzzy-natured high-order moments of random numbers in order to develop a high-moment trapezoidal fuzzy random portfolio risk model based on variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Data obtained from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was used to assess the influence on the proposed model of both background risk and the maximum level of satisfaction of the portfolio. The empirical results demonstrated that the differences between the maximum and minimum variance, skewness, and kurtosis values of the portfolio were positively correlated with the variance of the background risk.

家庭金融市场参与研究综述

作为家庭金融研究领域的重要方向之一,家庭金融市场参与引起了较大的关注。本文从宏观环境、背景风险、家庭特征和行为特征四个角度出发,对研究家庭金融市场参与影响因素的相关文献进行了回顾,并对国内外代表文献进行了系统梳理和探讨。由于家庭金融的发展时间较短,数据基础薄弱,针对家庭金融市场参与的相关研究还有待进一步完善。

投融资期限配置、现金持有与企业财务风险

融资与投资期限合理配置一直是企业平衡资金使用效率与财务风险控制的管理难题。近年来,由于投融资期限错配使企业深陷财务困境,甚至导致知名企业面临破产清算财务危机也屡见不鲜,使企业投融资期限配置问题成为社会普遍关注的焦点问题之一。文章基于2008—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据,实证检验了投融资期限配置对企业财务风险的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,投融资期限配置与企业财务风险之间存在显著的正U型关系,且经过稳健性检验后,研究结论仍然成立。进一步研究发现,现金持有水平在投融资期限配置影响企业财务风险的过程中发挥着中介作用。同时,在CEO具有财务背景及民营企业样本组中,投融资期限配置对企业财务风险影响的显著性程度有所降低。

高管研发背景与权力对企业风险承担的影响

利用沪深A股的非金融类上市公司样本,实证检验了高管研发背景与权力对企业风险承担的影响。结果发现,高管研发背景与权力均对企业风险承担具有显著促进作用,上述结论在进行系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验发现,企业创新投入增加在高管研发背景与权力促进企业风险承担的过程中起到了部分中介效应。进一步区分高技术行业发现,高管研发背景对企业风险承担的促进作用仅在高技术行业显著,而研发背景高管权力对企业风险承担的促进效应则在高技术与非高技术行业均显著。

大数据背景下的电子商务信用风险预警研究

为了提高电子商务信用风险预警效果,设计了一种大数据背景下的电子商务信用风险预警方法。首先设计电子商务信用风险预警指标,并采集大量的电子商务信用风险数据,然后分别采用最小二乘支持向量机和神经网络对电子商务信用风险预警进行建模,并对它们预警结果进行组合,最后与传统方法进行电子商务信用风险预警对比分析,分析结果表明设计的方法可以准确找到电子商务信用风险预警变化特点,电子商务信用风险预警正确率超过94%,远远高于传统方法的电子商务信用风险预警结果,大幅度降低了电子商务信用风险的误警率,具有十分明显的优越性。

污染地块土壤砷修复目标值确定方法研究

修复目标值的确定是污染地块环境监管的重要环节,通常基于风险评估方法计算风险控制值来确定。而对于砷污染地块,采用HJ25.3—2019《建设用地土壤污染风险评估技术导则》推荐模型和参数推算得到的修复目标值往往低于土壤砷环境背景值,难以满足监管需求。系统梳理了国内外污染地块土壤砷修复目标值确定方法,探讨了基于土壤环境标准值、传统风险评估、层次化风险评估、等效风险评估及土壤砷环境背景值修正方法的实现路径与实践应用。结合我国污染地块监管策略和砷污染地块开发再利用现状,提出了基于土壤环境背景值、层次化风险评估和生物可给性相关参数修正的土壤砷修复目标值确定方法,旨在为我国砷污染地块的修复和再利用提供更加科学合理的方案。

金融市场风险、高管金融背景与企业金融化

在诠释实体企业金融化的动机时,现有文献主要分析了收益动机,而实际上风险动机也同样存在。通过构建带有异质性高管的企业投资决策模型以及来自A股上市非金融企业的实证分析可以发现,企业金融化与金融市场风险有着显著的负向变动关系,金融市场风险是企业金融化的重要影响因素,企业金融化存在明显的风险动机。高管金融背景对企业金融化的风险动机形成倒U型调节关系,随着企业中有金融背景的高管比例上升,企业对金融市场风险的反应先减弱后增强,而这种调节作用部分通过管理层分歧来实现:当两类高管的数量相当时,实体企业对金融投资的管理分歧最大。此外,极端市场风险下企业有风险越大、投资越多的“彩票型”投资偏好。实证结果表明,实体企业金融化的风险动机受高管金融背景和金融市场状态的影响,当管理层分歧严重、极端市场出现时应当关注风险动机失灵问题。

基于GIS的安康市汉滨区地质灾害危险度区划研究

为了建立起系统的滑坡危险度量化模型,利用GIS软件采集评价指标,通过贡献权重模型,将滑坡本底因子对滑坡的贡献率转化为权重,并反演出各个指标因子的自权重和互权重,经过权重的多重迭加,对区域滑坡的危险度进行区划和评估。研究结果表明:滑坡分布密度与危险度级别有强的相关性,滑坡分布密度和增加幅度随危险度级别的提高而增加。通过对区域滑坡危险度的分析,对于制定防灾减灾方案和规划工程项目具有一定的参考价值。

某高地质背景区根茎蔬菜重金属分布特征及风险评价研究

对研究区域土壤和根茎蔬菜以1:1协同采集,测定Cr、Ni、As、Cd重金属含量。风险评价结果显示,土壤Cr、Ni、As、Cd超标率为57.29%、30.21%、18.75%、13.54%;根茎蔬菜萝卜镉、铬超标率为3%、14%,土豆镉、铬超标率为7.46%、20.9%,高背景区域农产品超标风险不容忽视;土豆镍、镉、铬富集系数均高于萝卜,表明土豆富集能力比萝卜强;相关性分析表明,土壤Cd对土豆吸收具有协同作用,pH对其有拮抗作用;人体健康风险评价显示,高地质背景区域根茎蔬菜非致癌风险及致癌风险均超过可接受范围,食用土豆致癌风险及非致癌风险大于萝卜,且对儿童的影响更大。

唐筛高危孕妇随访之中应用现况-背景-评估-建议模式的价值分析

目的分析唐筛高危孕妇随访中应用现况-背景-评估-建议模式(SBAR)的价值。方法回顾性选取2021年3月至2023年3月于濮阳市妇幼保健院进行的唐筛高危孕妇患者,按照干预方式不同分为研究组与对照组,各60例。给予对照组患者行常规干预,给予研究组患者行SBAR沟通模式,对比干预前后收缩压、舒张压、脉搏、焦虑自评量表(SAS)、抑郁自评量表(SDS)水平变化以及对比两组患者干预效果、不良妊娠结局以及干预满意度。结果干预后,研究组与对照组比较,研究组收缩压、舒张压、脉搏有所提高,研究组SAS、SDS评分改善幅度更优,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。研究组不良事件发生率、无效回访率、不良妊娠结局低于对照组,依从性高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);研究组满意度高于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论对唐筛高危孕妇应用SBAR沟通模式,可有效改善患者的焦虑、抑郁状态,提高干预工作的工作质量,改善医护之间的合作关系,有效提升患者满意度。

Risk of cancer,with special reference to extra-intestinal malignancies,in patients with inflammatory bowel disease

AIM:To determine the incidence and characteristics of intestinal and extra-intestinal cancers among patients with inflammatory bowel disease in a Spanish hospital and to compare them with those of the local population.METHODS:This was a prospective,observational,7-year follow-up,cohort study.Cumulative incidence,incidence rates based on person-years of follow-up and relative risk were calculated for patients with inflammatory bowel disease and compared with the background population.The incidence of cancer was determined using a hospital-based data registry from Hospital Universitario de Fuenlabrada.Demographic data and details about time from diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease to occurrence of cancer,disease extent,inflammatory bowel disease treatment,cancer therapy and cancer evolution were also collected in the inflammatory bowel disease cohort.RESULTS:Eighteen of 590 patients with inflammatory bowel disease developed cancer[cumulative incidence=3%(95%CI:1.58-4.52)vs 2%(95%CI:1.99-2.11)in the background population;RR=1.5;95%CI:0.97-2.29].The cancer incidence among inflammatory bowel disease patients was 0.53%(95%CI:0.32-0.84)per patient-year of follow-up.Patients with inflammatory bowel disease had a significantly increased relative risk of urothelial carcinoma(RR=5.23,95%CI:1.95-13.87),appendiceal mucinous cystadenoma(RR=36.6,95%CI:7.92-138.4),neuroendocrine carcinoma(RR=13.1,95%CI:1.82-29.7)and rectal carcinoid(RR=8.94,95%CI:1.18-59.7).Colorectal cancer cases were not found.CONCLUSION:The overall risk of cancer did not significantly increase in our inflammatory bowel disease patients.However,there was an increased risk of urinary bladder cancer and,with less statistical power,an increased risk of appendiceal mucinous cystadenoma and of neuroendocrine tumors.Colorectal cancer risk was low in our series.

财务柔性、高管团队背景特征对企业风险承担水平影响研究

风险承担水平是企业未来获得盈利持续性的重要因素.该文从企业内部财务资源和人力资源视角,选取2014-2020年中国沪深A股上市公司数据为研究样本,分析财务柔性、高管团队背景特征对企业风险承担水平影响关系.研究得出:财务柔性、高管团队海外背景与金融背景对企业风险承担水平具有正向激励作用;进一步分析高管团队背景特征的调节效应发现,高管团队海外背景、金融背景在财务柔性与风险承担水平关系间具有正向调节作用,能够显著增强财务柔性对企业风险承担水平的促进效果,可以更好地发挥财务柔性储备对风险承担水平的治理效应.

机器学习在地下水环境背景值与污染风险评价的应用和展望

地下水资源在世界各国水资源中占有举足轻重的地位,对人类生存发展、维系生态系统健康发挥着重要作用。现阶段地下水污染日益严重,地下水环境背景值研究和污染风险评价对地下水污染防治工作具有重要意义。由于地下水污染影响因素复杂,地下水化学组分空间分布的非均质性、地下水样品采集的小样本问题与大尺度区域的高计算代价,都对传统的污染风险评价方法构成了极大挑战。机器学习作为人工智能的核心,已成为水文地质领域研究的前沿热点,通过智能高效的数据处理和挖掘,在地下水化学组分的分布、变化以及赋存机制等方向已得到探索和尝试。本文全面介绍了近年来在地下水污染研究方面应用的机器学习方法,涵盖了以聚类为主的非监督学习算法,以回归为主的监督学习算法,以提升算法效率为目标的混合算法,以及以神经网络为核心的深度结构算法,展示了不同类型算法在地下水污染研究方面的成果,详细归纳了各种算法的机理,对算法的技术优劣及适用方向进行了探讨;最后对机器学习在地下水污染方面的应用发展趋势进行了展望,建议探索高效集成学习模型,以弥补单一算法的不足,同时发展面向小样本的深度学习建模技术,提高地下水污染评价精度,拓展和丰富新方法新技术在地下水污染研究方面的应用。

A Cross-Sectional Survey to Determine the Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in an Understudied Population in Sierra Leone

To document the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in an unstudied community, a survey of 130 participants from different areas of Sierra Leone was performed. The focus was on cardiovascular disease because its prevalence had not been studied and World Health Organization (WHO) reports on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) prevalence were extrapolations and not from actual data. Resting blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, fasting lipid levels and carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) were measured. Mean blood pressure in men was slightly lower than in women (132/87 mmHg and 139/90 mmHg respectively), mean fasting blood glucose levels were <100 mg/dL in both groups and mean fasting total cholesterol was higher in women than in men (206 mg versus 193.5 mg/dL). Mean fasting low density lipoprotein levels were similar in both groups, 129 mg/dL in men and 133 mg/dL in women. Mean fasting high density cholesterol was 47.2 mg/dL in men and 55.5 mg/dL in women and CIMT values were similar in both groups, with 60% above the 75th percentile. This study demonstrated a prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in this population with mean BP placing both men and women in pre-hypertension or stage 1 hypertension ranges and elevated mean low density lipoprotein levels. Fasting total cholesterol, blood glucose and high density lipoprotein were within normal ranges. Mean CIMT values for men and women placed them at risk for subclinical atherosclerosis.

Assessment of Background Radiation and Associated Dose Rates in Soil Samples from Norochcholai in the North Western Coast of Sri Lanka

This study assesses radiation levels in soil, water and air in the Norochcholai, an area in Sri Lanka closest to the Kundankulam nuclear power plant, India which is situated in the North Western coast. This is important for monitoring radiation hazards and will be useful in case of a nuclear accident. Superficial soil and water samples from 23 locations were analyzed by Gamma spectrometry using HPGe detector. The activity concentrations of Th232, K40, Ra226 and Pb210 in the soil were 56.0 Bq·kg-1, 96.0 Bq·kg-1, 24.0 Bq·kg-1 and 27.0 Bq·kg-1 respectively. Dose rate at 1 m height was recorded using a survey meter (Automess 6150AD). Median dose rate was 0.098 μSv·h-1. The median gamma ray absorbed dose rate was 51.2 nGy·h-1, which is lower than the global average of 57 nGy·h-1. Radium equivalent activity (Raeq) ranged from 30.3 Bq/Kg - 458.3 Bq/Kg and only one sample recorded the Raeq > 370 Bq/Kg as safe to be used in building materials. External hazardous indices of all the samples were below 1 and the mean annual effective dose was within the safe limit of 1 mSv/y. The health risk of exposure to terrestrial radiation from the soil in the area is minimal. These data could be used as baseline for radiation assessment.

土壤重金属地质高背景成因、风险与管控研究进展

土壤重金属地质高背景是近年来学术界研究的热点之一,涉及地质学、地球化学、土壤学、环境科学等学科。采用文献计量方法分析了土壤重金属地质高背景领域的研究进展与近期热点,介绍了全球和中国土壤重金属地质高背景分布特征、成因与类型,梳理了高背景区土壤重金属的环境风险及管控措施,以期为土壤重金属地质高背景成因机制与风险管控提供理论与技术参考。建议关注高背景区土壤重金属背景值调查、富集特征与形成机制、潜在活化与迁移,开展地质高背景区土壤风险评估、环境基准研究与管控技术研发。

长江中游湖南段湖泊重金属时空累积因素研究

为阐明社会经济发展对湖泊沉积物重金属时空富集的影响,采集了长江中游湖南省大于10km^(2)的湖泊沉积物,通过^(137)Cs和^(210)Pb放射性核素计年法、地化学背景值稳定层法及多元统计学法解析了湖南湖泊沉积物5种重金属的背景值;基于背景值结果,识别了重金属高背景区不同经济发展水平的岳阳南湖(城区)、黄盖湖(近郊)和华容东湖(远郊)的主要生态毒性风险元素,利用岭回归估计构建STIRPAT扩展模型,分析了人口总数、人均GDP、城镇化率、第二产业占比、第三产业占比、采掘业与制造业生产总值等6种社会经济发展指标与特征重金属的时空关系.结果表明,沉积物中Cr、Cu、Zn、Cd和Pb的地化学背景值分别为98,30,78,0.22和26mg/kg,分别是湖南土壤背景值的1.46,1.11,0.82,2.75和0.96倍;地累积指数显示,重金属总生态毒性风险顺序为岳阳南湖>黄盖湖>华容东湖,Cd是岳阳地区湖泊生态毒性风险主要贡献元素;STIRPAT扩展模型中,人口总数、城镇化率、实际人均GDP、第二产业占比、第三产业占比、采掘业和制造业生产总值的标准化系数分别为0.1396,0.0969,0.1922,0.1367,0.1264和0.1929,表明采掘业与制造业、人均GDP、人口总数对Cd污染影响最大.因此,采用土壤背景值评估湖泊生态环境不太准确,流域人口城镇化过程中采掘与制造业对湖泊Cd的富集量影响较大.

An Empirical Study on the Genetically Modified Food Risk Perceived by the College Students with Different Majors

The debate about the safety of genetically modified foods has never stopped,and different consumers have different judgments. On the basis of literature research,this paper designs the corresponding questionnaire for empirical analysis. With the college students as the object of study,this paper explores the differences in perceived genetically modified food risk by the college students with different majors,as well as the differences in the information processing mode adopted by the college students with different majors,and the differences in the perceived risk after adopting different information processing mode. The results show that there are significant differences in the perceived genetically modified food risk among the college students with different majors,the economics students have the highest average perceived risk; there are also significant differences in the information processing mode adopted by the college students with different majors,and the perceived risk is different when using the heuristic information processing mode.

数字金融是否改变了家庭风险态度

数字金融快速发展背景下,考察数字金融对家庭风险态度的影响是家庭金融相关研究的基础。基于期望效用理论框架,分析数字金融对家庭风险态度的影响,并使用CHFS 2013—2019年与CFPS 2018年的数据从不同角度构建风险态度指标验证数字金融对其的作用。研究发现,数字金融对家庭绝对风险厌恶系数与相对风险厌恶系数均存在显著负向影响,数字金融使家庭更偏好风险。渠道分析表明,数字金融通过降低背景风险而非提升财富水平改善家庭的风险偏好。研究结论为基于数字金融提升家庭风险市场参与的路径提供了证据,建议政府支持数字金融,助力家庭金融市场的普惠性发展。