Machine learning approach to drivers of bank lending:evidence from an emerging economy

The study analyzes the performance of bank-specific characteristics,macroeconomic indicators,and global factors to predict the bank lending in Turkey for the period 2002Q4–2019Q2.The objective of this study is first,to clarify the possible nonlinear and nonparametric relationships between outstanding bank loans and bank-specific,macroeconomic,and global factors.Second,it aims to propose various machine learning algorithms that determine drivers of bank lending and benefits from the advantages of these techniques.The empirical findings indicate favorable evidence that the drivers of bank lending exhibit some nonlinearities.Additionally,partial dependence plots depict that numerous bank-specific characteristics and macroeconomic indicators tend to be important variables that influence bank lending behavior.The study’s findings have some policy implications for bank managers,regulatory authorities,and policymakers.

The impact of bank lending on Palestine economic growth:an econometric analysis of time series data

Banking is an essential sector of Palestine’s economy.More credits provided by banks are considered to have a positive impact on economic growth so that the overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of bank lending on economic growth in Palestine.The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller to test for stationarity in the time series,The Johansen co-integration,Vector Autoregressive Model and Vector Error Correction Model are employed to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables,and Granger causality test in order to determine the direction of causality.The study finds that a long run relationship exists among the variables and insignificant short run relationship.Also,the study findings show that there is unidirectional causality and runs from GDP to bank lending.The insignificant contribution of bank lending to GDP is attributed to the fact that banks are not highly interested in lending to the production sector of the economy due to the high level of risk.However,the primary empirical evidence reveals that bank lending doesn’t cause economic growth,but economic growth causes bank lending.

Soft Information,Core Competitive Edge and Private Relationship Lending——A Case of Village Banks

In view of the development problems of village banks,through introducing the concept of private relationship lending,the functions of soft information,the channels of village banks for collecting soft information,and the private relationship lending of village banks under Chinese rural human environment of highlighting relationship while despising rationality are proved.According to the recognition standard of core competitive edge,it can be concluded that the core competitive edge of village banks is private relationship lending.In the first place,these kinds of small and medium-sized quarter banks have competitive advantages in launching private relationship lending;in the second place,the lending businesses of village banks based on soft information attracts small and medium clients;in the third place,the private relationship lending has realized the scale economy.Furthermore,the reasons why village banks can not display the core competitive edge have been analyzed:firstly,village banks have not found that private relationship lending is their core competitive edge;secondly,the internal motivation on establishing private relationship lending of village banks is insufficient;thirdly,village banks have not prepared well in developing private relationship lending;The relevant policies and countermeasures are put forward,including transforming idea and vigorously developing private relationship lending;intensifying training and improving the quality of personnel involved;strengthening supervision and avoiding the violation behaviors of personnel involved;emulating experiences and perfecting the private relationship lending mechanism of village banks.

An Analysis of the Loan Exit Gaming on Relationship Lending in China

This paper analyzes the loan exit on relationship lending in China. We define the relationship lending and analyze the value that both banks and borrowers will obtain in relationship lending, as well as some risks they will face, and then analyze the behaviors of loans exit with game theory. Our results suggest that, in general, relationship lending is helpful for the commercial banks and the enterprises to communicate information and enhance financing efficiency, while in the loan exit gaming, only when the decision of loan exit is made authentic promised by the banks, can the relationship lending effectively exert their positive function, and maintain the health cooperation between borrowers and lenders.

COVID‑19 pandemic risk and probability of loan default:evidence from marketplace lending market

As the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects the financial markets,a better understanding of the lending dynamics of a successful marketplace is necessary under the conditions of financial distress.Using the loan book database of Mintos(Latvia)and employing logit regression method,we provide evidence of the pandemic-induced exposure to default risk in the marketplace lending market.Our analysis indicates that the probability of default increases from 0.056 in the pre-pandemic period to 0.079 in the post-pandemic period.COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on default risk during May and June of 2020.We also find that the magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 risk is higher for borrowers with lower credit ratings and in countries with low levels of FinTech adoption.Our main findings are robust to sample selection bias allowing for a better understanding of and quantifying risks related to FinTech loans during the pandemic and periods of overall economic distress.

Study on relationship lending of small and medium enterprises

This paper focuses on relationship lending and the hypothesis of the small bank advantage. It integrates the knowledge of organization management theory, management theory and information economics theory. It combines the decision-making process of bank loans and the information needs, and analyzes the scientificity and rationality of the existing interpretations. Based on the reasons of ＂small bank advantage＂, it discusses some issues to which banks and enterprises should pay attention in the relationship lending.

Risks and Countermeasures of Chinese P2P Lending Network in the Internet Financial Background

In the era of big data-oriented development in today＇s society, with the Internet as the background of the financial lending rapid development of P2P network, and its role in promoting economic development has played, but also generated a lot of negative impact. In this paper, the basic concepts of lending comb P2P networks, based on analyzes the risks faced by P2P networks borrowing against these risks P2P network is proposed to strengthen the regulatory lending advice and countermeasures.

Size,efficiency,market power,and economies of scale in the African banking sector

There is a growing body of evidence that interest rate spreads in Africa are higher for big banks compared to small banks.One concern is that big banks might be using their market power to charge higher lending rates as they become larger,more efficient,and unchallenged.In contrast,several studies found that when bank size increases beyond certain thresholds,diseconomies of scale are introduced that lead to inefficiency.In that case,we also would expect to see widened interest margins.This study examines the connection between bank size and efficiency to understand whether that relationship is influenced by exploitation of market power or economies of scale.Using a panel of 162 African banks for 2001–2011,we analyzed the empirical data using instrumental variables and fixed effects regressions,with overlapping and non-overlapping thresholds for bank size.We found two key results.First,bank size increases bank interest rate margins with an inverted U-shaped nexus.Second,market power and economies of scale do not increase or decrease the interest rate margins significantly.The main policy implication is that interest rate margins cannot be elucidated by either market power or economies of scale.Other implications are discussed.

New Basle Capital Agreement and Risk Management of China＇s Banking Industry

Adjustment of Basle Capital Agreement will influence the risk management and capital arrangement demand of the banks with different scales, operation level and environment. It will have widespread and profound effect on the competition strength of every country＇s banks in the global market. Starting with illustration of the present cond（tion of risk management in China＇s banks, the paper analyzes the major problems existing in the risk management system of China＇s banking industry, then puts forward some clues and suggestions to improve and better the risk management system of China＇s banking industry.

Causality between bank’s major activities and economic growth:evidences from Pakistan

Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to investigate this consideration and also investigate that either growth led deposits and credits,or deposit and credits led growth means the purpose of this study is to investigate the direction of this relationship.Methods:Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality is employed by using time series data of Pakistan from 1961 to 2013.Results:The results show that two major activities of banking sector that are saving and lending don’t have any long run or short run causality towards economic growth so the general consideration of positive impact of these activities proved wrong in case of Pakistan.However there is unidirectional causality running from GDP growth to credit provided by banking sector which shows that economic prosperity or economic growth will have a major impact on lending activities of banks meaning that demand following hypothesis is true for Pakistan in case of GDP and Bank’s credit or we can say that growth led Bank’s credit in Pakistan.Conclusions:Hence Government and central bank should make policies by keeping this fact in consideration that bank’s two major activities that are saving and lending does not have impact on GDP growth.There might be other factors which influence economic growth of Pakistan more than banking sector these activities,which can be bank’s profitability,human resource,technology,infrastructure and other sectors of the economy.However GDP growth affects bank’s lending activities so during high economic growth year central bank and private bank’s management should introduce easy loans for businesses and industries and during poor economic growth years personal loan’s new schemes should be introduce by banks.

The Effect of Dividends and Earnings per Share on the Stock Market Value by Moderating Bank Size

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dividend distributions and earnings per share by moderating bank size as measured by its total assets on the stock market value of banks operating in Jordan during the period between 2011 and 2016.The hypotheses of the study were tested based on multiple and hierarchical regression method.The most important result of the study is that the earnings per share is the strongest variable that helps in predicting the stock market value of the bank shares,in addition to the significant effect of bank size as measured by its total assets.

People's Construction Bank of China

On the eve of the grand celebrations marking the 45th anniversary for the founding of new China, the People’s Construction Bank of China, one of our country’s four pillars of the banking industry, welcomed its 40th birthday. The Government Administration Council decided on September 9, 1954, to establish the People’s Construction Bank of China to handle mainly appropriations for capital construction and floating capital loans for construction enterprises toexercise financial supervision of the rational use

Tapping excess capital in China’s banking system

Excessive liquidity seriously affects Chinese economy. Thus, various policy proposals have been submitted by some scholars. The author holds that whatever form it may take, reducing trade surplus would harm China’s economic development. On the other hand, it is difficult to boost domestic consumption by increasing the resident spending on food, clothing etc. In order to consolidate the policy of domestic demand, it is important to separate production and non-production investment and create better economic conditions by accelerating the development of non-production investment and increasing the supply of "housing, traveling and education" related consumption.

Is the 2008 financial turmoil increasing the risk of a bank run？ An empirical research in Geneva

In this paper, the authors present the results of an empirical study that attempts to analyse the risk of bank run in Geneva, Switzerland. Two similar surveys have been conducted upon two independent samples of Geneva population （June 2008 and February 2009） to detect the existence of predictive signals leading to a bank run within the selected area. The authors discover that Geneva inhabitants are generally confident in Swiss banks; the risk of a bank run in the area is low. However, reliance to the national banking system is worsening： The number of people fearing about their savings and those thinking the default of a major Swiss bank as ＂possible＂ has significantly risen. Also, more and more people keep updated about the current financial crisis; overall trust in Swiss banks has slightly decreased.

World Bank's Financial Aid to Sichuan Gasfield

World Bank offered 255 million RMB Yuan bank loan and 10 million RMB Yuan donation in equivalent US dollars to"Sichuan Natural Gas Development and Energy-saving Project".This project includes evaluation and development of 13 gasfields and gas-bearing structures in the east-ern Sichuan,reformation of low-permeability gas fields,reformation and expanding of gas pipeline system and related environmental protection in Moxi,Bajiaocang in Middle Sichuan,technical assistance and personnel training,etc.The loan period is limited to 20 years,including five years of extension period.

HongKong's New Policy on Banking Sector

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA)recently published a package of policy initiativesto reform the local banking market.First of the two prominent features of thisreform package concerns the deregulation of theremaining interest rate ceilings.The first phase of deregulation,scheduled totake place on July 1,2000,will see the

Order of China's Major Banks among the World's 1000 Banks

１９９８１９９７ＢａｎｋＮａｍｅＣａｐｉｔａｌＴｏｔａｌａｓｓｅｔｓＣａｐｉｔａｌＰｒｅｔａｘｐｒｏｆｉｔＡｖｅｒａｇｅＣａｐｉｔａｌＡｓｓｅｔｓａｓｅｔｒａｔｅｐｒｏｆｉｔｒａｔｅｒｅｔｕｒｎｓ２２２５Ｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌ＆Ｃｏｍｍ１１５．９３４３...

WORLD BANK’S PROJECTS SENIOR PROCUREMENT SEMINAR HELD AT XIAN

The Senior Seminar of Procurement was held on October 15th, 1997, atXi’ an City, Shaanxi Province, sponsored by the Ministry of Finance. The purpose was to improve regulatory regime in procurement management and solvethe problems in filling the model bidding documents.During the meeting, Mr. Preben Jensen, Procurement Adviser, CentralOperational Services Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region, from the WorldBank, and Mr. Luiz Gazoni, Sr. Operations Officer from Beijing, World BankResident Mission of China and Mrs. Wu Yingwei, Procurement Officer, fromthe World Bank Resident Mission of China, represented the seminar and gavethe lecture. The Chinese procurement experts also made the remark.The attendants who came from the project executed units and tenderingcompanies discussed the revision of the new procurement guidelines, the role