Evolution and Application of Sealing Ability of Gypsum Caprocks under Temperature-Pressure Coupling:An Example of the ZS5 Well in the Tazhong Area of the Tarim Basin

Gypsum caprocks'sealing ability is affected by temperature-pressure coupling.Due to the limitations of experimental conditions,there is still a lack of triaxial stress-strain experiments that simultaneously consider changes in temperature and pressure conditions,which limits the accuracy of the comprehensive evaluation of the brittle plastic evolution and sealing ability of gypsum rocks using temperature pressure coupling.Triaxial stress-strain tests were utilized to investigate the differences in the evolution of the confinement capacity of gypsum rocks under coupled temperaturepressure action and isothermal-variable pressure action on the basis of sample feasibility analysis.According to research,the gypsum rock's peak and residual strengths decrease under simultaneous increases in temperature and pressure over isothermal pressurization experimental conditions,and it becomes more ductile.This reduces the amount of time it takes for the rock to transition from brittle to plastic.When temperature is taken into account,both the brittle–plastic transformation's depth limit and the lithological transformation of gypsum rocks become shallower,and the evolution of gypsum rocks under variable temperature and pressure conditions is more complicated than that under isothermal pressurization.The sealing ability under the temperature-pressure coupling is more in line with the actual geological context when the application results of the Well#ZS5 are compared.This provides a theoretical basis for precisely determining the process of hydrocarbon accumulation and explains why the early hydrocarbon were not well preserved.

A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework of Water-Energy-Food System Coupling Coordination in the Yellow River Basin,China

For mankind’s survival and development,water,energy,and food(WEF)are essential material guarantees.In China,however,the spatial distribution of WEF is seriously unbalanced and mismatched.Here,a collaborative governance mechanism that aims at nexus security needs to be urgently established.In this paper,the Yellow River Basin in China with a representative WEF system,was selected as a case.Firstly,a comprehensive framework for WEF coupling coordination was constructed,and the relationship and mechanism between them were analyzed theoretically.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of the coupling coordination degree(CCD)with a composite evaluation method,coupling coordination degree model,spatial statistical analysis,and multiscale geographic weighted regression.Finally,policy implications were discussed to promote the coordinated development of the WEF system.The results showed that:1)WEF subsystems showed a significant imbalance of spatial pattern and diversity in temporal changes;2)the CCD for the WEF system varied little and remained at moderate coordination.Areas with moderate coordination have increased,while areas with superior coordination and mild disorder have decreased.In addition,the spatial clustering phenomenon of the CCD was significant and showed obvious characteristics of polarization;and 3)the action of each factor is self-differentiated and regionally variable.For different factors,GDP per capita was of particular importance,which contributed most to the regional development’s coupling coordination.For different regions,GDP per capita,average yearly precipitation,population density,and urbanization rate exhibited differences in geographical gradients in an east-west direction.The conclusion can provide references for regional resource allocation and sustainable development by enhancing WEF system utilization efficiency.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

The Mesozoic Basin-Mountain Coupling Process of the Southern East China Sea Shelf Basin and its Adjacent Land Area

Basin-mountain coupling is a key issue for basin formation and evolution. The analysis of basin-mountain coupling process, as well as quantitative or semiquantitative restoration of prototype basin and the evolution of continental margin, can be used to interpret the geological process of basin-range conversion and reconstruct early prototype basins, which is a difficult and leadin~ scientific oroblem of basin research.

Spatial-temporal coupling between high-quality source rocks and reservoirs for tight sandstone oil and gas accumulations in the Songliao Basin, China

The spatial-temporal relationship between high-quality source rocks and reservoirs is a key factor when evaluating the formation,occurrence,and prospectivity of tight oil and gas reservoirs.In this study,we analyze the fundamental oil and gas accumulation processes occurring in the Songliao Basin,contrasting tight oil sand reservoirs in the south with tight gas sand reservoirs in the north.This is done using geochemical data,constant-rate and conventional mercury injection experiments,and fluid inclusion analyses.Our results demonstrate that as far as fluid mobility is concerned,the expulsion center coincides with the overpressure zone,and its boundary limits the occurrence of tight oil and gas accumulations.In addition,the lower permeability limit of high-quality reservoirs,controlled by pore-throat structures,is 0.1×10^-3μm^2 in the fourth member of the Lower Cretaceous Quantou Formation(K1q^4)in the southern Songliao Basin,and 0.05×10^-3μm^2 in the Lower Cretaceous Shahezi Formation(K1sh)in the northern Songliao Basin.Furthermore,the results indicate that the formation of tight oil and gas reservoirs requires the densification of reservoirs prior to the main phase of hydrocarbon expulsion from the source rocks.Reservoir“sweet spots”develop at the intersection of high-quality source rocks(with high pore pressure)and reservoirs(with high permeability).

COUPLING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN OROGENS AND BASINS,LOWER CRUST AND UPPER CRUST IN THE QINGHAI—TIBET PLATEAU

Uplift\|related geological and geophysical data available from regional geological mapping , detailed structural, tectonic, granitic, volcanic, metamorphic , geochronological studies, deep seismic reflection, wide\|angle seismic experiment, seismic tomography, broadband seismic network, and magnetotelluric sounding of key areas of the Qinghai—Tibet plateau are radically different from models of plate subduction or collision. Key geological features include: (1) obvio us time difference between plate collision and uplift of the plateau; (2) developments of intracrustal low\|velocity layers , low resistivity layers and discontinuous subhorizontal reflectors; (3) similar results between the rate and time of uplift of the Qinghai\|Tibet plateau and the time and rate of subsidence of its surrounding basins; (4) subhorizontal detachments and metamorphic core complexes occurred in Himalayan and Longmenshan; (5) weak deformation of late Cenozoic sediments and development of major steeply to gently dipping normal faults in the central part of the plateau; (6) discovery of high pressure and ultrahigh pressure metamorphic rocks in Nanbajiawa; (7) young volcanic rocks distributed from the northern plateau to the southern plateau; (8) nearly concordant processes among thrusting , mountain building, horizontal extension and intrusion of leucogranite in Himalayans.

On the Origin of One Basin-Multiple Mountain Couplings in the Mesozoic-Cenozoic Basin-Range Area in Eastern North China

The basin-range coupling relation is a leading subject of the modern geology. In geometry, relations of this type include couplings between stretched orogenic belt and down-faulted basin, compressional orogenic belt and foreland basin, strike-slip orogenic belt and strike-slip basin and so on. Fault chains are the key for these couplings and there are typical examples for all these cases. The North China down-faulted basin is coupled west with the Taihang uplift, east with the Jiao-Liao Mountains, north with the Yanshan orogenic belt and south with the Dabie orogenic belt, that is to say, the central down-faulted basin and the surrounding orogenic belts bear a coupling relation within a uniform dynamistic system. Study shows that the central down-faulted basin and the North China mantle sub-plume structure have a close relation during their formation. Owing to intensive mantle sub-plume uplifting, the bottom of the lithosphere suffered from resistance, which caused the lithosphere of the eastern North China to be heated, thinned and fault-depressed. Meanwhile, mantle rocks that were detached outwards in the shape of mushroom was dissected by surrounding ductile shearing zones, which lead to decompression and unloading to generate hypomagmas, and a series of mantle-branch structures were formed around the down-faulted basin. There is an obvious comparability among these mantle branch structures (orogenic belts), and they have basin-range coupling relations with the central down-faulted basins.

The Coupling Relationship between the Uplift of Longmen Shan and the Subsidence of Foreland Basin,Sichuan,China

Depending on the analysis of the coeval sedimentary geometry and subsidence mechanism in the Longmen Shan foreland basin, three models about the coupling relationship between Longmen Shan uplift and foreland basin subsidence since the Indosinian have been proposed：（1） crustal shortening and its related wide wedge-shaped foreland basin,（2） crustal isostatic rebound and its related tabular foreland basin, and（3） lower crustal flow and its related narrow wedge-shaped foreland basin. Based on the narrow wedge-shaped foreland basin developed since 4 Ma, it is believed that the narrow crustal shortening and tectonic load driven by lower crustal flow is a primary driver for the present Longmen Shan uplift and the Wenchuan（Ms 8.0） earthquake.

Neogene coupling between Kuqa Basin and Southern Tien Shan Orogen, Northwestern China

Based on the sedimentary and subsiding features of Kuqa foreland basin, this paper presents the following characteristics of Neogene coupling relationship between Kuqa Basin and Southern Tien Shan Orogen, Northwestern China: (1) The Southern Tien Shan Orogen underwent Neogene uplifting of 4 km in height and the Kuqa Basin underwent Neogene subsidence of 4?6 km in depth accordingly beginning in 25 Ma; (2) The Southern Tien Shan Orogen moved continuously toward the Kuqa Basin, with largest structural shortening rate of greater than 53.7%, and the north boundary of the Kuqa Basin retreated continuously southward accordingly since the Miocene; (3) There are two subsidence centers with high subsiding rates and large subsiding extent, located in the eastern and western Kuqa Basin respectively, with the subsiding maximizing in the deposition period of Kuqa Formation.

Polyphase Tectonic Events and Cenozoic Basin-Range Coupling in the Tianshan Belt,Northwestern China

Studies show that the Tianshan orogenic belt was built in the late stage of the Paleozoic, as evidenced by the Permian red molasses and foreland basins, which are distributed in parallel with the Tianshan belt, indicating that an intense folding and uplifting event took place. During the Triassic, this orogenic belt was strongly eroded, and basins were further developed. Starting from the Jurassic, a within-plate regional extension occurred, forming a series of Jurassic-Paleogene extensional basins in the peneplaned Tianshan region. Since the Neogene, a collision event between the Indian and the Eurasian plates that took place on the southern side of the Tianshan belt has caused a strong intra-continental orogeny, which is characterized by thrusting and folding. Extremely thick coarse conglomerate and sandy conglomerate of the Xiyu Formation of Neogene System were accumulated unconformably on the Tianshan piedmont. Studies have revealed that the strong compression caused by the Indian-Eurasian collision had a profound influence over the orogenic belt in the hinterland, and MesozoiC-Cenozoic brittle deformed structures superposed on the ductile deformed Paleozoic rocks. The Mesozoic extensional basins were converted into Cenozoic compressional basins. The deformation in the basins is featured by step thrusts and fault-related folds. Statistics of joints show that the principal compressive stress since the Neogene is in a N-S direction. Meanwhile, owing to the underthrusting of the basin toward the orogenic belt, the Paleozoic strata were thrust on the Meso-Cenozoic rocks as tectonic slices, revealing distinct kinematic features in different geologic units. The basin-range coupling zones are characterized by intensive compression, folding and thrusting, accompanied by local sub-E-W-trending strike-slip faults. In the Tianshan region, Cenozoic thrusting is the most common basin-range coupling mode. The folding and faulting of Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, spontaneous combustion of Jurassic coal layers and formation of sintered rocks, the Cenozoic earthquakes and active faulting, and the unique mosaic pattern of basin-range framework of Xinjiang are all products of tectonism since the Neogene.

Optimization of water-urban-agricultural-ecological land use pattern:A case study of Guanzhong Basin in the southern Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province,China

Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Province is confronted with the problem of insufficient water resources reserve.Based on the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model(GSFLOW),this paper evaluates the response of water resources in the basin to changes in land use patterns,optimizes the land use pattern,improves the ecological and economic benefits,and the efficiency of various spatial development,providing a reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the land use pattern in the Guanzhong Basin should be further optimized.Under the condition of considering ecological and economic development,the percentage change of the optimum area of farmland,forest,grassland,water area,and urban area compared with the current land use area ratio is+2.3,+2.4,-6.1,+0.2,and+1.6,respectively.The economic and ecological value of land increases by14.1%and 3.1%,respectively,and the number of water resources can increase by 2.5%.

Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin,China

Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios.This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management.

Spatio-temporal evolution of the coordinated development of high-tech industry agglomeration and resource-environmental carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin

Under the background of new infrastructure,the Yellow River Basin’s superior growth cannot be separated originating with the synergistic effect of scientific and technological inventiveness and ecological civilization construction.In light of the coupling coordination analysis of the coordination effect of provincial high-tech industry agglomeration and resource carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2021,The evolution of the geographical and temporal pattern of development was investigated using the Moran index and kernel density estimation.The results show that the agglomeration of high-tech industries in the Yellow River Basin presents a development trend of seek improvement in stability,and there is a good coupling and coordination throughout the progression of scientific and technological innovation and the loading capacity of the resource,from the viewpoint of a time series.From the perspective of spatial pattern distribution,the whole basin aims at the lower reaches,accelerates the optimization of digital industry and promotes Yellow River Basin development of superior quality through innovation support and increase of input,and based on policy guidance.

Spatiotemporal differentiation of coupling and coordination relationship of production-living-ecological space in Yellow River Basin

Based on combing the existing research on the production-living-ecological space,the paper quantitatively analyzes the evaluation system-development level-temporal and spatial evolution,future trend-influencing factors of the production-living-ecological functions coupling and coordination in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2018.Through multi-scale analysis and comparison,the paper tries to identify problem areas and put forward corresponding measures.The research results show that:(1)The coupling and coordination degree of the production-living-ecological functions in the Yellow River Basin both show an upward trend,and its future growth trend is relatively slow.(2)The spatial-temporal differential characteristics of the coordinated development level of the production-living-ecological functions are obvious,and gradually develop towards the direction of benign resonance in time,showing a spatial distribution pattern of“high in the northeast and low in the southwest”.(3)There is a big difference in the level of coordinated development of the production-living-ecological functions,and the coordination degree of the“production-living”function is the lowest.(4)Scientific and technological investment,economic development level,government capacity,and urbanization level have a significant positive impact on the spatial effect of the coordinated development of the production-living-ecological functions of the Yellow River Basin,and the same factor has different effects on different regions.

Analyzing crude oils from the Junggar Basin(NW China) using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry(GC×GC-TOFMS)

As a new technology of analyzing crude oils, comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography cou- pled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry （GCxGC- TOFMS） has received much research attention. Here we present a case study in the Junggar Basin of NW China. Results show that the hydrocarbons, including saturates and aromatics, were all well-separated without large co- elution, which cannot be realized by conventional one-dimensional GC-MS. The GC×GC technique is especially effective for analyzing aromatics and low-to-middle- molecular-weight hydrocarbons, such as diamondoids. The geochemical characteristics of crude oils in the study area were investigated through geochemical parameters extracted by GC×GC-TOFMS, improving upon the understanding obtained by GC-MS. Thus, the work here represents a new successful application of GC×GC- TOFMS, showing its broad usefulness in petroleum geochemistry.

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.

Coupling Singular Spectrum Analysis with Artificial Neural Network to Improve Accuracy of Sediment Load Prediction

Sediment load estimation is generally required for study and development of water resources system. In this regard, artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used modeling tool especially in data-constraint regions. This research attempts to combine SSA (singular spectrum analysis) with ANN, hereafter called SSA-ANN model, with expectation to improve the accuracy of sediment load predicted by the existing ANN approach. Two different catchments located in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) were selected for the study and the model performance was measured by several statistical indices. In comparing with ANN, the proposed SSA-ANN model shows its better performance repeatedly in both catchments. In validation stage, SSA-ANN is superior for larger Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency about 24% in Ban Nong Kiang catchment and 7% in Nam Mae Pun Luang catchment. Other statistical measures of SSA-ANN are better than those of ANN as well. This improvement reveals the importance of SSA which filters noise containing in the raw time series and transforms the original input data to be near normal distribution which is favorable to model simulation. This coupled model is also recommended for the prediction of other water resources variables because extra input data are not required. Only additional computation, time series decomposition, is needed. The proposed technique could be potentially used to minimize the costly operation of sediment measurement in the LMB which is relatively rich in hydrometeorological records.

Variability of Air-Sea CO_(2) Fluxes and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Distribution in the Atlantic Basin:A Coupled Model Analysis

The biogeochemical dynamics of carbon in the ocean is a subject of fundamental interest to environmental studies. In this context, we have implemented a ten year run of the Brazilian Earth System Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model (BESM-OA2.3) integrated with TOPAZ biogeochemical model for the Atlantic basin. The modeled ΔpCO2 for the tropical Atlantic shows very clearly a high dominance of positive fluxes, that is, the CO2 fluxes are sea-to-air throughout the tropical region and for both winter and summer periods. In the mid-latitudes regions negatives fluxes (air-to-sea) were observed for both seasons. An exception to this pattern is an extensive negative tongue on the latitude 10N. The occurrence of this negative ΔpCO2 tongue region in the Tropical Atlantic is highly correlated to negative Evaporation-Precipitation values during this season. In the northern hemisphere (NH) summer the negative values of ΔpCO2 in the tropical Atlantic region are concentrated in the adjacent zone of the Amazon river mouth due to the North Equatorial Counter Current intensification. This process favors the formation of a carbon sink in the adjacent region of the Amazon river mouth. Model results show lowest values of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in a surface layer (100 - 150 m). Highest DIC values are observed in deeper layers and concentrated in an equatorial band. The chlorophyll bloom in equatorial zones was well represented by the model. These blooms are the result of equatorial upwelling that brings the high concentration tongues of DIC present in the equatorial band towards the euphotic zone. This is the first published paper about the BESM-OA2.3 integrated with TOPAZ. The presented results suggest that this modeling system is able to reproduce the main regional carbon dynamics features of the mid-latitude/tropical Atlantic.

2000-2020年黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调时空演变特征

[目的]探讨黄河流域水—能源—粮食系统的耦合协调时空演化特征,可为定量评估流域高质量发展和区域可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]通过耦合协调度模型分析水—能源—粮食系统的综合发展水平和耦合协调特征,并利用灰色关联度对各子系统内部指标进行排序,进而判断对水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度的影响程度。[结果](1)黄河流域水—能源—粮食系统的综合发展指数呈上升趋势,水资源子系统波动幅度最大。(2) 2000—2020年黄河流域水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度从初级协调向良好协调阶段发展;不同省区间的系统耦合协调发展水平差异较为明显,整体上可表现为上游地区>中下游地区。(3)各子系统与系统耦合协调度的影响程度排名可表示为水资源子系统>粮食子系统>能源子系统,其中水资源子系统内部指标与系统耦合协调度关联度均在85%以上,水资源子系统相对其他子系统的严格管理尤为重要。[结论]水—能源—粮食系统的耦合协调发展水平有待提高,为促进系统协调发展和流域高质量发展应综合考虑各子系统的相互作用关系。

黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展研究

为推进中国式现代化建设,统筹黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展,提升城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展水平,以黄河流域内的7个城市群为研究对象,构建新型城镇化与生态安全评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和相对发展模型,并结合时空演化过程分析了黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展格局,最后通过系统动力学模型模拟未来5年耦合协调发展趋势.结果表明,研究期内,黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,部分城市群出现轻度波动,耦合协调特征由失调、濒临协调转化为勉强协调、初级协调;最后通过预测未来5年黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展过程,推断城市群均处于显著提升状态,且逐步达到初级协调阶段.针对目前黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展存在的不足,提出了相应的对策建议.