Hazard Rate Function Estimation Using Weibull Kernel

In this paper, we define the Weibull kernel and use it to nonparametric estimation of the probability density function (pdf) and the hazard rate function for independent and identically distributed (iid) data. The bias, variance and the optimal bandwidth of the proposed estimator are investigated. Moreover, the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is investigated. The performance of the proposed estimator is tested using simulation study and real data.

Copula joint function and its application in probability seismic hazard analysis

A mature mathematical technique called copula joint function is introduced in this paper, which is commonly used in the financial risk analysis to estimate uncertainty. The joint function is generalized to the n-dimensional Frank’s copula. In addition, we adopt two attenuation models proposed by YU and Boore et al, respectively, and construct a two-dimensional copula joint probabilistic function as an example to illustrate the uncertainty treatment at low probability. The results show that copula joint function gives us a better prediction of peak ground motion than that resultant from the simple linear weight technique which is commonly used in the traditional logic-tree treatment of model uncertainties. In light of widespread application in the risk analysis from financial investment to insurance assessment, we believe that the copula-based technique will have a potential application in the seismic hazard analysis.

HAZARD FUNCTION AND CHARACTERIZATIONS ON DISTRIBUTION TAILS OF NONNEGATIVE RANDOM VARIABLES

Some equivalent conditions on the classes of lighted-tailed and heavily heavy-tailed and lightly heavy-tailed d.f.s are introduced.The limit behavior of xα(x) and e λx(x) are discussed.Some properties of the subclass DKc and subclass DK 1 are obtained.

A PENALTY FUNCTION METHOD FOR THE PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM WITH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF INCENTIVE-COMPATIBILITY CONSTRAINTS UNDER MORAL HAZARD

In this paper,we propose an iterative algorithm to find the optimal incentive mechanism for the principal-agent problem under moral hazard where the number of agent action profiles is infinite,and where there are an infinite number of results that can be observed by the principal.This principal-agent problem has an infinite number of incentive-compatibility constraints,and we transform it into an optimization problem with an infinite number of constraints called a semi-infinite programming problem.We then propose an exterior penalty function method to find the optimal solution to this semi-infinite programming and illustrate the convergence of this algorithm.By analyzing the optimal solution obtained by the proposed penalty function method,we can obtain the optimal incentive mechanism for the principal-agent problem with an infinite number of incentive-compatibility constraints under moral hazard.

Structural failure analysis with CMS-based ground motion selection using innovative cost function and weight factors

The selection and scaling of ground motion records is considered a primary and essential task in performing structural analysis and design.Conventional methods involve using ground motion models and a conditional spectrum to select ground motion records based on the target spectrum.This research demonstrates the influence of adopting different weighted factors for various period ranges during matching selected ground motions with the target hazard spectrum.The event data from the Next Generation Attenuation West 2(NGA-West 2)database is used as the basis for ground motion selection,and hazard de-aggregation is conducted to estimate the event parameters of interest,which are then used to construct the target intensity measure(IM).The target IMs are then used to select ground motion records with different weighted vector-valued objective functions.The weights are altered to account for the relative importance of IM in accordance with the structural analysis application of steel moment resisting frame(SMRF)buildings.Instead of an ordinary objective function for the matching spectrum,a novel model is introduced and compared with the conventional cost function.The results indicate that when applying the new cost function for ground motion selection,it places higher demands on structures compared to the conventional cost function.Moreover,submitting more weights to the first-mode period of structures increases engineering demand parameters.Findings demonstrate that weight factors allocated to different period ranges can successfully account for period elongation and higher mode effects.

Product reliability assessment based on proportional hazard degradation model

In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.

Accelerated proportional degradation hazards-odds model in accelerated degradation test

An accelerated proportional degradation hazards-odds model is proposed. It is a non-parametric model and thus has path- free and distribution-free properties, avoiding the errors caused by faulty assumptions of degradation paths or distribution of degra- dation measurements. It is established based on a link function which combines the degradation cumulative hazard rate function and the degradation odds function through a transformation pa- rameter, and this makes the accelerated proportional degradation hazards model and the accelerated proportional degradation odds model special cases of it. Hypothesis tests are discussed, and the proposed model is applicable when some model assumptions are satisfied. This model is utilized to estimate the reliability of minia- ture bulbs under low stress levels based on the degradation data obtained under high stress levels to validate the effectiveness of this model.

The Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model Vis-à-Vis ITN-Factor Impact on Mortality Due to Malaria

This study has provided a starting point for defining and working with Cox models in respect of multivariate modeling. In medical researches, there may be situations, where several risk factors potentially affect patient prognosis, howbeit, only one or two might predict patient’s predicament. In seeking to find out which of the risk factors contribute the most to the survival times of patients, there was the need for researchers to adjust the covariates to realize their impact on survival times of patients. Aside the multivariate nature of the covariates, some covariates might be categorical while others might be quantitative. Again, there might be cases where researchers need a model that has the capability of extending survival analysis methods to assessing simultaneously the effect of several risk factors on survival times. This study unveiled the Cox model as a robust technique which could accomplish the aforementioned cases. An investigation meant to evaluate the ITN-factor vis-à-vis its contribution towards death due to Malaria was exemplified with the Cox model. Data were taken from hospitals in Ghana. In doing so, we assessed hospital in-patients who reported cases of malaria (origin state) to time until death or censoring (destination stage) as a result of predictive factors (exposure to the malaria parasites) and some socioeconomic variables. We purposefully used Cox models to quantify the effect of the ITN-factor in the presence of other risk factors to obtain some measures of effect that could describe the relationship between the exposure variable and time until death adjusting for other variables. PH assumption holds for all three covariates. Sex of patient was insignificant to deaths due to malaria. Age of patient and user status were both significant. The magnitude of the coefficient (0.384) of ITN user status depicts its high contribution to the variation in the dependent variable.

STRONG REPRESENTATIONS OF THE SURVIVAL FUNCTION ESTIMATOR ON INCREASING SETS FOR TRUNCATED AND CENSORED DATA

In this paper, based on random left truncated and right censored data, the authors derive strong representations of the cumulative hazard function estimator and the product-limit estimator of the survival function. which are valid up to a given order statistic of the observations. A precise bound for the errors is obtained which only depends on the index of the last order statistic to be included.

ADDITIVE HAZARDS MODEL WITH TIME-VARYING REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS

This article discusses regression analysis of failure time under the additive hazards model, when the regression coefficients are time-varying. The regression coefficients are estimated locally based on the pseudo-score function [12] in a window around each time point. The proposed method can be easily implemented, and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with easily estimated variances. The simulation studies show that our estimation procedure is reliable and useful.

Local Polynomial Estimation of Distribution Functions

Under the condition that the total distribution function is continuous and bounded on （ -∞,∞ ）, we constructed estimations for distribution and hazard functions with local polynomial method, and obtained the rate of strong convergence of the estimations.

Critical review and functional safety of a battery management system for large‑scale lithium‑ion battery pack technologies

The battery management system(BMS)is the main safeguard of a battery system for electric propulsion and machine electrifcation.It is tasked to ensure reliable and safe operation of battery cells connected to provide high currents at high voltage levels.In addition to efectively monitoring all the electrical parameters of a battery pack system,such as the voltage,current,and temperature,the BMS is also used to improve the battery performance with proper safety measures within the system.With growing acceptance of lithium-ion batteries,major industry sectors such as the automotive,renewable energy,manufacturing,construction,and even some in the mining industry have brought forward the mass transition from fossil fuel dependency to electric powered machinery and redefned the world of energy storage.Hence,the functional safety considerations,which are those relating to automatic protection,in battery management for battery pack technologies are particularly important to ensure that the overall electrical system,regardless of whether it is for electric transportation or stationary energy storage,is in accordance with high standards of safety,reliability,and quality.If the system or product fails to meet functional and other safety requirements on account of faulty design or a sequence of failure events,then the environment,people,and property could be endangered.This paper analyzed the details of BMS for electric transportation and large-scale energy storage systems,particularly in areas concerned with hazardous environment.The analysis covers the aspect of functional safety that applies to BMS and is in accordance with the relevant industrial standards.A comprehensive evaluation of the components,architecture,risk reduction techniques,and failure mode analysis applicable to BMS operation was also presented.The article further provided recommendations on safety design and performance optimization in relation to the overall BMS integration.

Two Analytical Methods for Detection and Elimination of the Static Hazard in Combinational Logic Circuits

In this paper, the authors continue the researches described in [1], that consists in a comparative study of two methods to eliminate the static hazard from logical functions, by using the form of Product of Sums (POS), static hazard “0”. In the first method, it used the consensus theorem to determine the cover term that is equal with the product of the two residual implicants, and in the second method it resolved a Boolean equation system. The authors observed that in the second method the digital hazard can be earlier detected. If the Boolean equation system is incompatible (doesn’t have solutions), the considered logical function doesn’t have the static 1 hazard regarding the coupled variable. Using the logical computations, this method permits to determine the needed transitions to eliminate the digital hazard.

Logical Function Decomposition Method for Synthesis of Digital Logical System Implemented with Programmable Logic Devices (PLD)

The paper consists in the use of some logical functions decomposition algorithms with application in the implementation of classical circuits like SSI, MSI and PLD. The decomposition methods use the Boolean matrix calculation. It is calculated the implementation costs emphasizing the most economical solutions. One important aspect of serial decomposition is the task of selecting “best candidate” variables for the G function. Decomposition is essentially a process of substituting two or more input variables with a lesser number of new variables. This substitutes results in the reduction of the number of rows in the truth table. Hence, we look for variables which are most likely to reduce the number of rows in the truth table as a result of decomposition. Let us consider an input variable purposely avoiding all inter-relationships among the input variables. The only available parameter to evaluate its activity is the number of “l”s or “O”s that it has in the truth table. If the variable has only “1” s or “0” s, it is the “best candidate” for decomposition, as it is practically redundant.

Cox Proportional Hazard Model for Survival Time of Neonatal Mortality in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Hospitals in River Nile State-Sudan

Cox Proportional Hazard model is a popular statistical technique for exploring the relationship between the survival time of neonates and several explanatory variables. It provides an estimate of the study variables’ effect on survival after adjustment for other explanatory variables, and allows us to estimate the hazard (or risk) of death of newborn in NICU of hospitals in River Nile State-Sudan for the period (2018-2020). Study Data represented (neonate gender, mode of delivery, birth type, neonate weight, resident type, gestational age, and survival time). Kaplan-Meier method is used to estimate survival and hazard function for survival times of newborns that have not completed their first month. Of 700 neonates in the study area, 25% of them died during 2018-2020. Variables of interest that had a significant effect on neonatal death by Cox Proportional Hazard Model analysis were neonate weight, resident type, and gestational age. In Cox Proportional Hazard Model analysis all the variables of interest had an effect on neonatal death, but the variables with a significant effect included, weight of neonate, resident type and gestational age.

Lung Function Impairment among Gasoline Attendants: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Occupational health is an important consideration, especially for people that work in an environment with pollutants. Gasoline attendants are individuals that work in filling stations. They are constantly exposed to gasoline fumes and automobile engine products from vehicle exhaust. This increases the risk of acute and chronic respiratory diseases and carcinogenesis among them. The risk of health complications tends to increase with the duration of exposure. The study aimed to determine the proportion of gasoline attendants with lung function impairment. Methods and Materials: Two hundred and eight eligible participants were recruited for this study. A cross-sectional analytical study was carried out in Esan West local government area of Edo state, Nigeria. The study was carried out for a period of six months from December 2015 to May 2016. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics, work history, mode of exposure and duration of exposure to petrol fumes. Lung function was assessed using a DTspiro spirometer (Model POP 10. Serial no 110843-005);also the anthropometric parameters of the respondent were measured. Statistical analysis was done using IBM SPSS version 20.0. Frequency and percentages were used to present categorical data. The mean and standard deviation of continuous variables were calculated and compared using the student’s t-test. The criteria of significant association were assumed for a p-value less than 0.05. Results: A total of one hundred and forty petrol pump attendants and one hundred and forty controls participated in this study. The mean age for petrol pump attendants was 24 ± 3.1 years and 23 ± 2.8 years for the control group. There were no significant differences in the gender distribution and anthropometric parameters as observed in this study. The lung impairment pattern observed in this study was obstructive in twelve (8.6%) gasoline pump attendants and restrictive pattern in thirty-nine (27.9%) gasoline pump attendants, while only four (2.9%) had an obstructive pattern and twelve (8.6%) had a restrictive pattern of lung impairment among the control group. This implies that a restrictive pattern was predominant. This study also observed that there was an increase in the number of gasoline pump attendants with declined lung function compared to the control group. Conclusion: Restrictive pattern of lung impairment was more predominant than the obstructive pattern among gasoline pump attendants. As a result, public health interventions should be instituted among these individuals, especially in developing countries.

Envelope Functions of Time Histories in Seismic Safety Evaluation and Scenario Earthquakes

It has been a period of time since the concept of scenario earthquake was proposed, but this concept has rarely been used in seismic safety evaluation in China since then. Meanwhile, because of the uncertainties of magnitudes-distances pairs, there is large arbitrariness while determining the envelope function of time histories in seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, we describe a method to control the envelope functions of the time histories by introducing the most-likely combinations of magnitude and distance of the scenario earthquakes based on a probabilistic method, revise the software of the ellipse model for seismic hazard analysis, and give a computation example.

Lung Function Impairment among Gasoline Attendants: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Occupational health is an important consideration, especially for people that work in an environment with pollutants. Gasoline attendants are individuals that work in filling stations. They are constantly exposed to gasoline fumes and automobile engine products from vehicle exhaust. This increases the risk of acute and chronic respiratory diseases and carcinogenesis among them. The risk of health complications tends to increase with the duration of exposure. The study aimed to determine the proportion of gasoline attendants with lung function impairment. Methods and Materials: Two hundred and eight eligible participants were recruited for this study. A cross-sectional analytical study was carried out in Esan West local government area of Edo state, Nigeria. The study was carried out for a period of six months from December 2015 to May 2016. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics, work history, mode of exposure and duration of exposure to petrol fumes. Lung function was assessed using a DTspiro spirometer (Model POP 10. Serial no 110843-005);also the anthropometric parameters of the respondent were measured. Statistical analysis was done using IBM SPSS version 20.0. Frequency and percentages were used to present categorical data. The mean and standard deviation of continuous variables were calculated and compared using the student’s t-test. The criteria of significant association were assumed for a p-value less than 0.05. Results: A total of one hundred and forty petrol pump attendants and one hundred and forty controls participated in this study. The mean age for petrol pump attendants was 24 ± 3.1 years and 23 ± 2.8 years for the control group. There were no significant differences in the gender distribution and anthropometric parameters as observed in this study. The lung impairment pattern observed in this study was obstructive in twelve (8.6%) gasoline pump attendants and restrictive pattern in thirty-nine (27.9%) gasoline pump attendants, while only four (2.9%) had an obstructive pattern and twelve (8.6%) had a restrictive pattern of lung impairment among the control group. This implies that a restrictive pattern was predominant. This study also observed that there was an increase in the number of gasoline pump attendants with declined lung function compared to the control group. Conclusion: Restrictive pattern of lung impairment was more predominant than the obstructive pattern among gasoline pump attendants. As a result, public health interventions should be instituted among these individuals, especially in developing countries.

考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失评估

洪涝灾害是对我国影响最大的自然灾害之一。聚焦灾害损失评估问题,本文构建了考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数。一方面,表征灾害损失随着致灾因子强度先递增、而后增幅趋缓的静态S型曲线关系;另一方面,通过量级、形状和位置三个参数综合考虑灾害损失随时间的动态变化情况。基于《中国水旱灾害防御公报》提供的受灾人口、直接经济损失数据,对于各省级行政区2006—2021年洪涝灾害损失进行评估分析。结果表明:通过拟合洪涝灾害损失函数,洪涝灾害损失关于致灾因子强度和时间的三维空间散点图可有效地拓展成为连续的三维空间曲面及二维空间热力图。各省级行政区受灾人口整体上呈现出逐年下降的特征,但随致灾因子强度的增加而趋于增加。各省级行政区直接经济损失则表现出明显的差异,随时间呈现出大幅下降、缓慢下降和略有增加等不同特征。考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数是变化环境下灾害评估的有效工具,可为区域洪涝灾情评估提供借鉴和参考。

Hazard函数估计误差的极限定理

令H_n(x)是基于来自密度函数f(x)的容量为n的一个随机样本的hazard函数H(x)=f^(x)/[1-integral from x=∞ to x(f(t)dt)]的一个核形估计.对于非参数hazard估计的积分均方误差integral ((H_n(x)-H(x))~2ω(x)f(x)dx)中心极限定理成立的一个充分条件被给出,这里ω(x)是一个权函数.