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复熵及其应用——Bayes-E决策分析法 被引量:4
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作者 顾昌耀 邱宛华 《航空学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 1991年第9期A512-A518,共7页
本文将熵的概念推广到复数域,并讨论了它的性质,进行了后验预分析,从而克服了Bayes风险决策方法对信息分析的不足,得到一个Bayes-E风险决策方法的新测度——传递熵。
关键词 复熵 传递熵 bayes-E决策法
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Application and comparison of two symptom-based eutrophication-assessment methods in Jiaozhou Bay, China 被引量:1
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作者 WU Zaixing YU Zhiming +2 位作者 SONG Xiuxian CAO Xihua YUAN Yongquan 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第5期1582-1594,共13页
Increasing numbers of approaches to assess eutrophication, such as estuarine trophic status, the Oslo-Paris Commission Common Procedure, and the Water Framework Directive, focus on the symptoms of eutrophication. In C... Increasing numbers of approaches to assess eutrophication, such as estuarine trophic status, the Oslo-Paris Commission Common Procedure, and the Water Framework Directive, focus on the symptoms of eutrophication. In China, however, nutrient index methods dominate the assessment of coastal waters. In this study, an integrated method that includes both water quality and ecological response was compared with the Northwest Pacifi c Action Plan (NOWPAP) Common Procedure. Observation data from Jiaozhou Bay, Shandong, China, were used in a comparison of the two methods in a trophic status study. Overall, both clearly revealed a high level of nutrient enrichment in the bay, indicated by high nutrient concentrations. Though the two methods diff ered in their methodological design in the assessment of the ecological eff ects of nutrient enrichment, they have acquired similar results: the integrated method suggested that the status was good, and the NOWPAP Common Procedure suggested that the status was low (indicating that the bay had no serious eutrophication problem). The introduction of fi lter feeders (shellfi sh aquaculture) into the bay on a reasonable scale may have been eff ective in mitigating eutrophic conditions, and perhaps explains the low ecological impacts there. Our results will be useful to ecosystem-based eutrophication management in the bay and in similar areas. 展开更多
关键词 EUTROPHICATION assessment integrated methodology NORTHWEST Pacifi c Action PLAN (NOWPAP) COMMON procedure Jiaozhou bay
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山区双车道公路事故预测模型研究及在安全性评价中的应用 被引量:6
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作者 秦勤 唐琤琤 彭道月 《公路交通科技》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第10期139-143,共5页
根据采集的双车道公路的事故、线形、交通等数据,考虑公路横向干扰、路侧情况等,将双车道公路划分为普通路段、村庄路段和交叉口,分别建立了事故总数、一般以上事故次数以及碰撞、追尾和路侧等不同形态的事故次数与道路和交通要素关系... 根据采集的双车道公路的事故、线形、交通等数据,考虑公路横向干扰、路侧情况等,将双车道公路划分为普通路段、村庄路段和交叉口,分别建立了事故总数、一般以上事故次数以及碰撞、追尾和路侧等不同形态的事故次数与道路和交通要素关系的双车道公路事故预测基础模型。然后,应用统计分析方法进行了路基宽度等事故修正因子(AMF)的研究;使用基础模型经过AMF修正、经验贝叶斯过程(EB过程)、标定等进行双车道公路机体事故预测。最后,介绍了双车道公路事故预测模型在安全性评价中的应用。 展开更多
关键词 交通工程 安全性评价定量方法 事故预测模型 事故修正因子 EB过程
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泊松序列中变点的贝叶斯分析 被引量:3
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作者 张梦琇 罗倩 周菊玲 《淮阴师范学院学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2018年第2期105-108,共4页
利用二分法将含有多个变点的泊松序列进行分割,将泊松序列多变点问题转化为没有变点和仅有一个变点的问题,运用贝叶斯因子进行模型比较.选用上证指数数据,结合贝叶斯因子对存在变点的模型进行了检验.
关键词 泊松序列 变点理论 二分法 贝叶斯因子
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再入落点密集度评定的序贯截尾方法
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作者 张士峰 李鹏波 《战术导弹技术》 1999年第4期45-49,共5页
讨论了再入飞行器落点密集度评定的序贯截尾方法,给出了预测m步的序贯方案,并把这种方案和SPRT进行了比较,求出了Bayes验后风险以及两类错误的概率,最后考虑了截尾情况下的评定方案。
关键词 贝叶斯方法 序贯截尾 验后风险 再入落点密集度
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用于发酵过程多目标优化的几何支持向量回归Pareto前沿的连续近似方法(英文) 被引量:1
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作者 吴佳欢 王建林 +1 位作者 于涛 赵利强 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第10期1131-1140,共10页
The approaches to discrete approximation of Pareto front using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have the problems of heavy computation burden, long running time and missing Pareto optimal points. In order to ov... The approaches to discrete approximation of Pareto front using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have the problems of heavy computation burden, long running time and missing Pareto optimal points. In order to overcome these problems, an approach to continuous approximation of Pareto front using geometric support vector regression is presented. The regression model of the small size approximate discrete Pareto front is constructed by geometric support vector regression modeling and is described as the approximate continuous Pareto front. In the process of geometric support vector regression modeling, considering the distribution characteristic of Pareto optimal points, the separable augmented training sample sets are constructed by shifting original training sample points along multiple coordinated axes. Besides, an interactive decision-making(DM)procedure, in which the continuous approximation of Pareto front and decision-making is performed interactively, is designed for improving the accuracy of the preferred Pareto optimal point. The correctness of the continuous approximation of Pareto front is demonstrated with a typical multi-objective optimization problem. In addition,combined with the interactive decision-making procedure, the continuous approximation of Pareto front is applied in the multi-objective optimization for an industrial fed-batch yeast fermentation process. The experimental results show that the generated approximate continuous Pareto front has good accuracy and completeness. Compared with the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm with large size population, a more accurate preferred Pareto optimal point can be obtained from the approximate continuous Pareto front with less computation and shorter running time. The operation strategy corresponding to the final preferred Pareto optimal point generated by the interactive DM procedure can improve the production indexes of the fermentation process effectively. 展开更多
关键词 Continuous approximation of PARETO front Geometric support vector regression Interactive decision-making procedure FED-BATCH FERMENTATION process
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随机缩减法在拒绝型O’Brien & Fleming成组序贯设计中的应用研究 被引量:3
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作者 刘伟杰 谭旭辉 《中国卫生统计》 CSCD 北大核心 2019年第2期167-170,175,共5页
目的比较随机缩减法中条件功效和不同先验分布下的预测功效两类指标的优劣。方法以试验组和对照组的两样本均数比较的统计优效性检验为分析目的,在拒绝型O’Brien&Fleming(OBF法)成组序贯设计的条件下,通过设定不同SCP的拒绝阈值γ... 目的比较随机缩减法中条件功效和不同先验分布下的预测功效两类指标的优劣。方法以试验组和对照组的两样本均数比较的统计优效性检验为分析目的,在拒绝型O’Brien&Fleming(OBF法)成组序贯设计的条件下,通过设定不同SCP的拒绝阈值γ,在每个期中分析阶段计算CP及不同先验下的PP,并计算各指标相应的Ⅰ类错误、检验功效Power、平均样本量以及平均阶段数。结果当SCP终止条件为γ=0.80,无信息先验PP的Ⅰ类错误能稳定在0.05处左右,而CP和enthusiastic先验PP的Ⅰ类错误则出现明显膨胀;当SCP终止阈值为0.85和0.90,能明显抑制CP和不同先验下的PP的Ⅰ类错误的膨胀;当五阶段OBF功效设定在90%及SCP终止阈值为0.80的条件下,CP、无信息先验PP以及enthusiastic先验PP功效分别为87.6%、84%和86.5%。结论在期中分析次数较多的OBF成组序贯设计条件下,无信息先验PP效果优于CP;在阳性研究中,SCP能大幅减少成组序贯试验所需的期望样本量和期望阶段数。随着SCP终止阈值的增大以及期中分析次数的减少,CP和不同先验PP的功效均会出现明显的下降,而CP和不同先验PP的Ⅰ类错误的膨胀则会被抑制。随机缩减法相关指标对于临床试验有效性监测具有较高的参考价值。 展开更多
关键词 成组序贯设计 随机缩减法 贝叶斯 先验分布
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决策论在钻头选型中的应用
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作者 王新安 《新疆石油学院学报》 2001年第2期72-74,共3页
本文把决策论中的最小最大决策方法和贝叶斯决策方法应用于钻头的选型 ,通过对钻头的选型 。
关键词 钻头选型 最小最大决策法 贝叶斯决策法 单位成本矩阵 钻探
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Dirichlet process and its developments: a survey
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作者 Yemao XIA Yingan LIU Jianwei GOU 《Frontiers of Mathematics in China》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第1期79-115,共37页
The core of the nonparametric/semiparametric Bayesian analysis is to relax the particular parametric assumptions on the distributions of interest to be unknown and random,and assign them a prior.Selecting a suitable p... The core of the nonparametric/semiparametric Bayesian analysis is to relax the particular parametric assumptions on the distributions of interest to be unknown and random,and assign them a prior.Selecting a suitable prior therefore is especially critical in the nonparametric Bayesian fitting.As the distribution of distribution,Dirichlet process(DP)is the most appreciated nonparametric prior due to its nice theoretical proprieties,modeling flexibility and computational feasibility.In this paper,we review and summarize some developments of DP during the past decades.Our focus is mainly concentrated upon its theoretical properties,various extensions,statistical modeling and applications to the latent variable models. 展开更多
关键词 Nonparametric bayes Dirichlet process Polya urn prediction Sethuraman representation stick-breaking procedure Chinese restaurant rule mixture of Dirichlet process dependence Dirichlet process Markov Chains Monte Carlo blocked Gibbs sampler latent variable models
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