Cerebral Vascular Accidents (CVA) Victims Conception and Birth Time-Links to Longevity, Lithuania, 1989-2013

In year 2001 a paper in the ANAS considered links between month of birth and longevity. In the following years we published four papers related to “big killers” (cardiac and oncology) that showed some differences in birth months distribution of this group and studied by LA, NS Gavrilov’s centenarians. The aim of this study was to study conception and birth months of another modern “big killer”—cerebral stroke (CVA) that is taking a leading role among cardiovascular causes of death in the last decades. Methods: 130,120 deaths of both gender CVA victims in Lithuania at 1989-2013 were studied. In addition to birth month, the months of conception (9 months before birth) were studied. Our data were compared with results of centenarians (birth of LA, NS Gavrilov’s study and transformed by authors also their conception month). Results: The maximum of births were January, March and May for CVA victims, while the analogical conception maximum were in April, June, May and July. The similar data for centenarians were that maximal births were in November, September, October (LA, NS Gavrilov) and conception in December, January, February. These results are similar to data related to cardiac and oncology deaths published in our previous publications. Conclusion: The conception and birth month of victims of CVA is different of similar data obtained by centenarians study. Different environmental conditions at different parts of the year and solar cycle can play a role affecting the embryo at early stages of development, predisposing to some pathologies in coming years of life.

A Time Series Analysis of Outdoor Air Pollution and Preterm Birth in Shanghai, China

Objective To investigate the relation between air pollution exposure and preterm birth in Shanghai, China. Methods We examined the effect of ambient air pollution on preterm birth using time-series approach in Shanghai in 2004. This method can eliminate potential confounding by individual risk factors that do not change over a short period of time. Daily numbers of preterm births were obtained from the live birth database maintained by Shanghai Municipal Center of Disease Control and Prevention. We used the generalized additive model （GAM） with penalized splines to analyze the relation between preterm birth, air pollution, and covariates. Results We observed a significant effect of outdoor air pollution only with 8-week exposure before preterm births. An increase of 10 μg/m^3 of 8-week average PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3 corresponded to 4.42% （95%CI 1.60%, 7.25%）, 11.89% （95%CI 6.69%, 17.09%）, 5.43% （95%CI 1.78%, 9.08%）, and 4.63% （95%CI 0.35%, 8.91%） increase of preterm birth. We did not find any significant acute effect of outdoor air pollution on preterm birth in the week before birth. Conclusion Ambient air pollution may contribute to the risk of preterm birth in Shanghai. Our analyses also strengthen the rationale for further limiting air pollution level in the city.

A Hospital-Based Cross-Sectional Study Assessing the Relation between Time of Birth and Perinatal Outcome

Objectives:?Investigating the relation between perinatal outcomes and?hospital working shifts.?Methods:?We conducted a cross-sectional study at Philippe Maguilen Senghor health center (PMSHC) in Dakar, Senegal from January, 1st?2011 to December, 31th 2018. The study population was comprised of all mothers who had delivered at PMSHC and their newborns after completing 22 weeks of gestation. Time of delivery was?divided into three periods of working hours: morning shift (deliveries occurred between 7 am and 4:59 pm);evening shift from 5 pm to 10:59 pm and night shift from 11?pm to 6:59 am.?Maternal outcomes were assessed by mode of delivery, epsisotomy and perineal injuries.?The Apgar scoring system was used to assess newborns at first minute after they were born. Other adverse perinatal outcomes included fresh stillbirth, neonatal referral and early neonatal death. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science software (SPSS 24, Mac version).?Results:?A total of 48,270 mothers and their newborns met eligibility criteria. Caesarean section deliveries were less likely to occur during evening (OR 0.84, 95% CI;0.79?-?0.89, p = 0.001) and night shifts (OR 0.45, CI;0.47?-?0.53, p = 0.001).?Evening shift deliveries had 1.1 the odds of poor perinatal outcome (Apgar score ?- 1.18, p = 0.012). No significant difference was found in the odds of neonate referrals and deaths across the three shifts.?Night shift deliveries had 1.1 the odds of perineal injuries compared to morning shift deliveries (OR 1.11, 95% CI;1.04?- 1.18, p = 0.001, for episiotomy and OR, 1.14;95% CI, 1.04?- 1.26, p = 0.008, for perineal tears). Conclusion:?Off-hours deliveries, particularly during the night shift, were significantly associated with higher proportions of perineal injuries compared to morning shift.?However, no significant difference was found in the odds of neonate referrals and deaths across the three shifts.?Our findings suggest to set up a Neonatology unit at the CSPMS as well as a perinatal network across the country.

Adaptive Regression for Nonlinear Interrupted Time Series Analyses with Application to Birth Defects in Children of Vietnam War Veterans

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of adaptive regression modeling and demonstrate its use in conducting nonlinear analyses of interrupted time series (ITS) data. Adaptive regression modeling is based on heuristic search over alternative models for data controlled by likelihood-cross validation (LCV) scores with larger scores indicating better models. Extended linear mixed models are used for correlated data like ITS data. Power transforms of predictor variables are used to account for nonlinearity. The use of adaptive regression modeling for assessing ITS effects is demonstrated using data on annual proportions of major birth defects in children fathered by male Air Force veterans of the Vietnam War over a 59-year period. The interruption for this ITS is conception after versus before the start of a participant’s first tour in the Vietnam War. Whether the ITS effect is related to dioxin exposure is also addressed. Dioxin is a highly toxic contaminant of the herbicide Agent Orange used in the Vietnam War. The core findings of the reported analyses are that a substantial adverse ITS interruption effect is identified and that this adverse effect can reasonably be attributed to participants having a high dioxin exposure level. Moreover, these results indicate that adaptive regression modeling can identify nonlinear ITS effects in general situations that can lead to consequential insights into nonlinear relationships over time, possibly varying with other available predictors.

子女出生顺序对家庭资源分配的影响--基于家庭教育投入跨期回报模型

随着“全面两孩”政策的颁布,多子女家庭重新回归历史舞台。由于家庭资源的有限性,未成年时期兄弟姐妹之间存在着潜在竞争关系,而父母则是资源分配的主导者。家庭内部的资源分配关系短期内影响子女受教育水平,长期来看,对中国人力资本发展有着深远影响。本文利用2014年中国健康与养老追踪调查生命历程调查(CHARLS)数据,针对子女出生顺序对家庭资源分配的作用进行系统研究,并构建家庭教育投入跨期回报模型对头胎学历优势现象进行阐释。理论模型发现兄弟姐妹之间存在资源竞争关系,对一个孩子的教育投资增加会导致另一个孩子获得的教育投资减少,并且父母会选择投资出生顺序更靠前的子女。这是因为头胎距离完成教育的时间更短,可以更快地进入就业市场带来实际回报,减轻父母经济压力,而投入更小孩子的教育则需要花费更多时间和资源,等待回报的年限也相对较长。实证结果进一步验证了模型推导结论,在控制了受访者个人特征、家庭经济特征、家庭人口情况和社区虚拟变量的基础上,研究运用有序Probit模型回归发现出生顺序对受教育水平有显著的负效应,顺序靠前的孩子受教育时间普遍更长,该结论在考虑家户虚拟变量、子女数量和家庭成分后仍然稳健。这样的现象在家长受教育水平越高以及男孩身上越显著,而幼子与头胎年龄差距越大,学历水平显著提高。一些潜在机制是父母对头胎教育更严格。此外,虽然头胎有着学历优势,父母却通常偏爱更小的孩子,对他们成年后的帮助也更大,这一发现揭示了家庭中关于资源分配的微妙动态平衡。基于本文研究结论,应进一步完善教育补贴政策,以确保多子女家庭能够获得更全面的教育福利支持,同时开展有关家庭教育观念的培训活动,帮助家长理解和重视每个子女的个性化需求,促使教育资源在家庭中更加公平地分配给每个子女,为每个孩子提供健康成长的机会。

产褥期产妇疲乏现状及其相关影响因素分析

目的:观察产褥期产妇疲乏现状并分析其相关影响因素。方法:选取2020年6月—2022年9月于莆田市妇幼保健院完成分娩的81例产褥期产妇作为研究对象,采用疲乏评定量表(FAI)评估产褥期产妇疲乏现状,自制一般资料调查问卷,比较不同资料产妇的FAI评分,采用线性回归分析产褥期产妇疲乏的影响因素。结果:81例产褥期产妇FAI评分为(4.61±1.22)分,处于中度疲乏水平。产次≥2次、剖宫产、纯母乳喂养、产后出血、社会支持低水平、睡眠质量较差、心理状况不良产妇的FAI评分高于产次为1次、自然分娩、混合或人工喂养、社会支持中高水平、睡眠质量良好、心理状况良好的产妇,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);不同年龄、受教育程度、家庭平均月收入、是否早产儿、职业状态产妇FAI评分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。线性回归分析结果显示,产次≥2次、剖宫产、纯母乳喂养、产后出血、社会支持低水平、睡眠质量较差、心理状况不良均为产褥期产妇疲乏的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论:产褥期产妇处于中度疲乏水平,其疲乏程度可能受产次、分娩方式、喂养方式、产后出血、社会支持、睡眠质量、心理状况等因素影响。临床应重点关注上述因素,并实施相应措施。

新生儿重症监护室不同出生体重儿PICC的现状分析

目的分析新生儿重症监护室(neonatal intensive care unit,NICU)不同出生体重儿经外周置入中心静脉导管(peripherally inserted central catheter,PICC)的现状,为后续护理质量改进提供依据。方法回顾性分析2017年1月1日至2021年12月31日某三级甲等医院NICU 908例PICC病例的临床资料,按出生体重(birth weight,BW)分为4组,比较各组间置管过程、维护过程、并发症和拔管原因。结果82.7%的患儿PICC经右下肢大隐静脉置管,不同出生体重组间穿刺部位存在差异,其中BW<1 kg和BW≥2.5 kg组经股静脉置管比例高于其他两组。总体一次性穿刺成功率84.8%,不同出生体重组间存在差异,BW≥2.5 kg组一次性穿刺成功率最低,为65.9%。总体一次性到位率为61.8%,过深率为31.9%,不同出生体重组导管尖端首次定位分布未见差异。总体并发症发生率为13.3%,非计划性拔管率为1.9%,不同出生体重组间总并发症发生率和非计划性拔管率未见差异。结论PICC并发症发生率和非计划性拔管率控制得较为理想,但在一次性穿刺成功率和一次性到位率方面仍有较大的提升空间,未来护理质量改进方向应以提高一次性置管成功率为主。

前次剖宫产手术时机对再孕阴道分娩母婴并发症的影响

目的探讨前次剖宫产手术时机对再孕阴道分娩母婴并发症的影响。方法回顾性分析本院收治的1034例足月剖宫产术后阴道分娩(VBAC)孕产妇资料。按前次剖宫产手术时机分为择期组(择期行剖宫产术)426例、第一产程组(第一产程行剖宫产术)278例、第二产程组(第二产程行剖宫产术)330例。分析前次剖宫产手术时机对VBAC孕产妇的产程、产后并发症及新生儿出生情况的影响。结果第二产程组子宫收缩乏力比例、产后24 h出血量、产后出血发生率及产后住院天数均大于择期组和第一产程组(P<0.05),而择期组与第一产程组比较,以上指标差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。3组间第二、第三产程时限、助产率、会阴裂伤率、产后尿潴留率、发热比例及新生儿1 min Apgar评分、新生儿窒息发生率及转入新生儿科比例比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论前次第二产程剖宫产手术孕产妇再孕阴道分娩时发生子宫收缩乏力及产后出血风险增加。

初乳滴注联合专科针对性护理对缩短极低出生体重儿全肠道喂养时间效果分析

目的探讨初乳滴注联合专科针对性护理对缩短极低出生体重儿全肠道喂养时间效果。方法选取2020年1月至2022年12月我院的60例极低出生体重儿,按数字随机分组法将其分入试验组和对照组,每组30例。对照组患儿采用初乳滴注联合常规护理,试验组患儿实施初乳滴注联合专科针对性护理。对两组患儿全肠道喂养时间、全经口喂养时间、恢复正常出生体重时间和两组患儿胃潴留情况(胃潴留次数、潴留量)进行对比分析。结果试验组患儿全肠道喂养时间、全经口喂养时间、恢复正常出生体重时间均短于对照组(P<0.05);试验组患儿胃潴留次数、潴留量均低于对照组(P<0.05)。结论初乳滴注联合专科针对性护理能有效缩短极低出生体重儿全肠道喂养时间以及康复时间,加速改善胃潴留。

不同时间建立肠道营养对极低出生体重儿T淋巴细胞亚群的影响研究

目的探讨不同时期建立肠道营养对极低出生体重(VLBW)儿的免疫功能(T淋巴细胞亚群)的数值变化。方法选取南宁市第二人民医院2021—2023年新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)收治的符合纳入标准的VLBW儿90例作为研究对象,依据建立肠道营养时间分为试验组(出生后3 d内)、对照1组(出生后3~7 d)、对照2组(出生后7 d后),每组各30例。统计分析三组T淋巴细胞亚群、感染性疾病发生情况、住院时间、住院费用。结果出生后第20天,试验组患儿CD3^(+)、CD4^(+)水平以及CD4^(+)/CD8^(+)值均高于对照1、2组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。试验组患儿感染性疾病发生率低于对照1、2组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。试验组患儿住院时间短于对照1、2组,且对照1组患儿住院时间短于对照2组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);试验组患儿住院费用低于对照1、2组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论早期建立VLBW儿肠道营养预期可提高新生儿的细胞免疫功能,降低VLBW儿感染性疾病的感染率及降低感染程度,缩短住院时间,减少住院费用,为提供早期建立肠道营养可提高新生儿细胞免疫力提供理论依据。

Analysis of a Delayed SIR Model with Exponential Birth and Saturated Incidence Rate

In this paper, a delayed SIR model with exponential demographic structure and the saturated incidence rate is formulated. The stability of the equilibria is analyzed with delay: the endemic equilibrium is locally stable without delay;and the endemic equilibrium is stable if the delay is under some condition. Moreover the dynamical behaviors from stability to instability will change with an appropriate?critical value. At last, some numerical simulations of the model are given to illustrate the main theoretical results.

Spreading Speed for a Periodic Reaction-diffusion Model with Nonmonotone Birth Function

A reaction-diffusion model for a single species with age structure and nonlocal reaction for periodic time t is derived. Some results about the model with monotone birth function are firstly introduced, and then by constructing two auxiliary equations and squeezing method, the spreading speed for the system with nonmonotone birth function is obtained.

产业结构、居民工作时间与人口出生率

21世纪以来中国人口出生率出现显著下降,而产业结构升级导致的居民工作时间波动增加可能是出生率下降的重要原因。将中国城镇行业加权平均工作时间作为关键解释变量,利用2003—2019年中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,控制其他因素的影响后,考察期内城镇居民平均工作时间的增加显著降低了当地人口出生率。进一步研究表明,居民收入、工作时间对出生率存在交互影响,人均可支配收入越高,工作时间增加对出生率的负向冲击就越被削弱,即收入水平对劳动闲暇具有一定补偿作用。构建工具变量“经济地理偏离度”、去除少数民族自治区及基于SYS-GMM方法的稳健性检验也得出了一致结论。异质性检验则发现无论城镇男性或女性居民平均工作时间的增加都会负向冲击当地人口出生率。相关部门应在保证居民收入持续增长的基础上严格规范工时制度,保障职工拥有充足劳动闲暇,并对家庭生育予以必要的支持辅助,避免人口出生率持续下降。

论二十四节气的命名

古代二十四节气创造者究竟怎样理解太阳的周年运动?二十四节气究竟如何被命名?古代二十四节气通常被称为“二十四气”,二十四个节气名称中不仅反映出“两分”“两至”与“四立”构成的“八节”是结构性存在,而且以冬至、夏至为核心存在着一个对称的阴阳结构。更重要的是,二十四节气称谓中还包蕴着以水的变化联通四季,以寒暑为枢纽,以水气湿燥为表象的反应古人对水之三态变化认识和想象的水系列,这个命名体系中有关气的变化与“太一生水”之间存在同构关系,其背后有深厚的中国哲学气的思想、阴阳的思想、水的本源论思想作为支撑。这个结论提醒我们,时间问题是中国古代思想最根本的问题。

A Stochastic SIVS Epidemic Model Based on Birth and Death Process

A new stochastic epidemic model, that is, a general continuous time birth and death chain model, is formulated based on a deterministic model including vaccination. We use continuous time Markov chain to construct the birth and death process. Through the Kolmogorov forward equation and the theory of moment generating function, the corresponding population expectations are studied. The theoretical result of the stochastic model and deterministic version is also given. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to substantiate the theoretical results of random walk.

基于ARIMA模型的我国人口数量的统计分析与预测

运用描述性统计和时间序列分析法对我国人口数量及其相关指标,包括人口出生率、人口死亡率等指标进行统计分析和预测,分别得出ARIMA模型,并预测2017年至2022年指标数据,对比真实值显示模型效果较好。为国家制定相关人口政策提供依据。

应用圆形分布法分析阴道分娩经产妇的分娩时间规律

目的随着生育政策的调整,探索分析阴道分娩的经产妇分娩信息的变化及分娩时间是否存在集中趋势,为助产士人力资源配置提供依据。方法选取2013年1月1日至2022年12月31日在北京市某三级甲等综合医院住院分娩的2808名阴道分娩经产妇的分娩信息,应用圆形分布法分析经产妇的分娩时间是否存在集中趋势。结果经产妇年龄为22~54(33.74±3.80)岁,高龄经产妇百分比呈上升趋势,经产妇的分娩时间主要集中在11~12时(P<0.001)。结论随着生育政策的调整,经产妇和高龄经产妇百分比逐年增加,经产和高龄是导致不良分娩结局的因素,对母婴的健康和安全造成威胁,对助产士的能力提出更高的要求,需要加强培训和演练,做好助产士人才梯队储备。

数字截断时间知觉模式在非药物镇痛助产服务中的应用

目的:探讨数字截断时间知觉模式在非药物镇痛助产服务中的应用效果。方法:选择在本院分娩初产妇240例,采用数字表法随机分为观察组与对照组。两组给予非药物分娩镇痛,观察组还实施数字截断时间知觉干预。比较两组知觉时间、疼痛程度、分娩结局及分娩体验。结果:观察组单次宫缩疼痛知觉时间、疼痛评分(T2~T10与第二产程)、第一产程时间、催产素使用率低于对照组(P<0.05);观察组分娩体验总分高于对照组(P<0.05)。结论:在非药物镇痛助产服务中实施数字截断时间知觉模式,可缩短初产妇宫缩疼痛知觉时间与产程,减轻疼痛主观体验,降低催产素使用率,提升分娩体验。

基于循证的临床质量改进在低出生体质量儿PICC相关并发症的应用

目的探讨基于循证的临床质量改进在低出生体质量儿经外周静脉穿刺的中心静脉导管(peripherally inserted central venous catheter,PICC)相关并发症的应用效果。方法将厦门大学附属第一医院2021年6月至2022年6月新生儿科收治的92例低出生体质量患儿分为研究组和对照组。对照组给予常规护理干预。研究组在常规护理基础上,基于循证的临床质量改进法干预。对比两组一次性穿刺成功、非计划拔管的情况及正常导管留置时间。记录两组并发症的发生情况。评估两组静脉炎的发生程度。结果研究组一次性穿刺成功率高于对照组(89.13%vs.69.57%,P=0.020),导管留置时间长于对照组[(25.38±5.19)d vs.(22.54±3.01)d,P=0.002],非计划拔管率低于对照组(4.35%vs.17.39%,P=0.044),并发症总发生率低于对照组(8.70%vs.19.57%,P=0.038),静脉炎严重程度低于对照组(P=0.030)。结论基于循证的临床质量改进有助于提高低出生体质量儿PICC的一次性穿刺成功率,延长导管留置时间,降低相关并发症的发生,减轻静脉炎的发生程度。