Investigation of effects of hazard geometry and mitigation strategies on community resilience under tornado hazards using an Agent-based modeling approach

A large number of communities are impacted annually by the increasing frequency of tornado hazards resulting in damage to the infrastructure as well as disruption of community functions.The effect of the hazard geometry(center and angle of tornado path as well as the tornado width)is studied herein on how it influences the recovery of physical and social systems within the community.Given that pre-disaster preparedness including mitigation strategies(e.g.,retrofits)and policies(e.g.,insurance)is crucial for increasing the resilience of the community and facilitating a faster recovery process,in this study,the impact of various mitigation strategies and policies on the recovery trajectory and resilience of a typical US community subjected to a tornado is investigated considering different sources of uncertainties.The virtual testbed of Centerville is selected in this paper and is modeled by adopting the Agent-based modeling(ABM)approach which is a powerful tool for conducting community resilience analysis that simulates the behavior of different types of agents and their interactions to capture their interdependencies.The results are presented in the form of recovery time series as well as calculated resilience indices for various community systems(lifeline networks,schools,healthcare,businesses,and households).The results of this study can help deepen our understanding of how to efficiently expedite the recovery process of a community.

Evolution, resilience and causes of global petroleum gas trade networks: 1995-2020

Based on the HS 4-digit code trade data in UNCOMTRADE from 1995 to 2020, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of the global PG trade network using the complex network approach and analyzes the changes in its resilience at the overall and country levels, respectively. The results illustrated that:(1) The scale of the global PG trade network tends to expand, and the connection is gradually tightened, experiencing a change from a “supply-oriented” to a “supply-and-demand” pattern, in which the U.S., Russia, Qatar, and Australia have gradually replaced Canada, Japan, and Russia to become the core trade status, while OPEC countries such as Qatar, Algeria, and Kuwait mainly rely on PG exports to occupy the core of the global supply, and the trade status of other countries has been dynamically alternating and evolving.(2) The resilience of the global PG trade network is lower than that of the random network and decreases non-linearly with more disrupted countries. Moreover, the impact of the U.S. is more significant than the rest of countries. Simulations using the exponential random graph model(ERGM) model revealed that national GDP, institutional quality, common border and RTA network are the determinants of PG trade network formation, and the positive impact of the four factors not only varies significantly across regions and stages, but also increases with national network status.

Resilience Against Replay Attacks:A Distributed Model Predictive Control Scheme for Networked Multi-Agent Systems

In this paper,a resilient distributed control scheme against replay attacks for multi-agent networked systems subject to input and state constraints is proposed.The methodological starting point relies on a smart use of predictive arguments with a twofold aim:1)Promptly detect malicious agent behaviors affecting normal system operations;2)Apply specific control actions,based on predictive ideas,for mitigating as much as possible undesirable domino effects resulting from adversary operations.Specifically,the multi-agent system is topologically described by a leader-follower digraph characterized by a unique leader and set-theoretic receding horizon control ideas are exploited to develop a distributed algorithm capable to instantaneously recognize the attacked agent.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out to show benefits and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Terrain or climate factor dominates vegetation resilience?Evidence from three national parks across different climatic zones in China

Vegetation resilience(VR),providing an objective measure of ecosystem health,has received considerable attention,however,there is still limited understanding of whether the dominant factors differ across different climate zones.We took the three national parks(Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,HTR;Wuyishan National Park,WYS;and Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park,NTL)of China with less human interference as cases,which are distributed in different climatic zones,including tropical,subtropical and temperate monsoon climates,respectively.Then,we employed the probabilistic decay method to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the VR and their natural driving patterns using Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model as well.The results revealed that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of the three national parks fluctuated between 0.800 and 0.960,exhibiting an overall upward trend,with the mean NDVI of NTL(0.923)>HTR(0.899)>WYS(0.823);(2)the positive trend decay time of vegetation exceeded that of negative trend,indicating vegetation gradual recovery of the three national parks since 2012;(3)the VR of HTR was primarily influenced by elevation,aspect,average annual temperature change(AATC),and average annual precipitation change(AAPC);the WYS'VR was mainly affected by elevation,average annual precipitation(AAP),and AAPC;while the terrain factors(elevation and slope)were the main driving factors of VR in NTL;(4)among the main factors influencing the VR changes,the AAPC had the highest proportion in HTR(66.7%),and the AAP occupied the largest area proportion in WYS(80.4%).While in NTL,elevation served as the main driving factor for the VR,encompassing 64.2%of its area.Consequently,our findings indicated that precipitation factors were the main driving force for the VR changes in HTR and WYS national parks,while elevation was the main factors that drove the VR in NTL.Our research has promoted a deeper understanding of the driving mechanism behind the VR.

Specialization or Diversification:Which is More Conducive to Foreign Trade Resilience?Evidence from China-Russia Border Regions in Northeast China

Under the background of complex international situation,how to build the special geo-economic space of China-Russia bor-der lies in strengthening their foreign trade resilience against external shocks.Based on empirical evidence from ten prefecture-level China-Russia border regions in Northeast China,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of foreign trade resilience under different shocks.Furthermore,through the Panel Regression model,the mechanism of the industrial structure on the foreign trade resilience in contraction period and expansion period was discussed.The results showed that:1)from 2004 to 2021,foreign trade in China-Russia border regions experienced five phases.The overall foreign trade resilience was higher than expected,showing a rising volatility trend,but there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the ability of cities to cope with shocks.2)Highly specialized clusters were mainly concentrated in Yichun,Heihe and Da Hinggan Ling Prefecture,while Mudanjiang and Yanbian performed better in related and unrelated diversification.3)In different stages of economic system evolution,the response mode,degree and result of border foreign trade resilience to regional industrial structure showed obvious stage characteristics.During the contraction period,related diversification was more conducive to improving the resistance through risk spillovers.During the expansion period,specialization played a more significant role in improving regional resilience through self-reinforcing effect.These results are beneficial for expanding the resilience theory,ensuring border economic security and optimizing border industrial investment layout.

Resilience assessment and optimization method of city road network in the post-earthquake emergency period

The post-earthquake emergency period,which is a sensitive time segment just after an event,mainly focuses on saving life and restoring social order.To improve the seismic resilience of city road networks,a resilience evaluation method used in the post-earthquake emergency period is proposed.The road seismic damage index of a city road network can consider the influence of roads,bridges and buildings along the roads,etc.on road capacity after an earthquake.A function index for a city road network is developed,which reflects the connectivity,redundancy,traffic demand and traffic function of the network.An optimization model for improving the road repair order in the post-earthquake emergency period is also developed according to the resilience evaluation,to enable decision support for city emergency management and achieve the best seismic resilience of the city road network.The optimization model is applied to a city road network and the results illustrate the feasibility of the resilience evaluation and optimization method for a city road network in the post-earthquake emergency period.

Development of an integrated dynamic model for supply security and resilience analysis of natural gas pipeline network systems

An integrated dynamic model of natural gas pipeline networks is developed in this paper.Components for gas supply,e.g.,pipelines,junctions,compressor stations,LNG terminals,regulation stations and gas storage facilities are included in the model.These components are firstly modeled with respect to their properties and functions and,then,integrated at the system level by Graph Theory.The model can be used for simulating the system response in different scenarios of operation,and evaluate the consequences from the perspectives of supply security and resilience.A case study is considered to evaluate the accuracy of the model by benchmarking its results against those from literature and the software Pipeline Studio.Finally,the model is applied on a relatively complex natural gas pipeline network and the results are analyzed in detail from the supply security and resilience points of view.The main contributions of the paper are:firstly,a novel model of a complex gas pipeline network is proposed as a dynamic state-space model at system level;a method,based on the dynamic model,is proposed to analyze the security and resilience of supply from a system perspective.

Relation between Interparental Conflict and Non-Suicidal Self-Injury in Adolescents:Mediating Role of Alexithymia and Moderating Role of Resilience

Background:Adolescents frequently engage in Non-Suicidal Self-Injury(NSSI),with recent trends indicating an increase in this behavior.At the same time,Chinese adolescents have a higher incidence of NSSI than Western adolescents.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the relationship between interparental conflict and NSSI among adolescents within the context of Chinese families.Methods:The research sample comprised 755 senior high school students(46.62%male;age M=16.82,SD=0.94 years)who completed the Interparental Conflict Child Perception Scale(CPIC),Adolescent Self-Injury Behavior Questionnaire(ASHS),Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20(TAS-20),and Scale of Adolescent Resilience(RSCA).Results:Findings suggest that interparental conflict is a significant positive predictor of NSSI(r=0.22,p<0.01).Alexithymia mediates the relation between interparental conflict and NSSI(effect size=0.09,95%CI[0.05,0.13]).Additionally,resilience moderates both the direct relation(β=−0.08,p<0.05)and the latter half of the mediating pathway(β=−0.08,p<0.05)in the moderated mediation model.Conclusion:This study indicates that interparental conflict have an impact on adolescents’NSSI in Chinese families,and alexithymia and resilience play important roles in the relationship.These findings offer valuable guidance for the prevention and intervention efforts targeting NSSI among adolescents in China and in similar family contexts.

Unveiling the impact and mechanism of digital technology on agricultural economic resilience

Enhancing the economic resilience of agriculture is essential for promoting sustainable and high-quality agricultural development.The emergence of digital technology has created new opportunities in this field.However,existing research predominantly focuses on traditional agricultural factors and technologies.Therefore,the impact of digital technology on agricultural economic resilience within the broader context of the“production-operation-industry”system in agriculture has not been comprehensively explored.To bridge this gap,this study analyzes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020.It employs the static Van Dorn’s law and a dynamic spatial panel model to examine how digital technology empowers agricultural resilience.The findings indicate a continuous strengthening of digital technology development in China,albeit with significant polarization and spatial imbalances.Moreover,the resilience of the agricultural economy undergoes notable fluctuations,initially narrowing and subsequently displaying an upward trend.Digital technology clearly plays a pivotal role in empowering resilience through agricultural scale operation,industrial transformation,and technological progress.Its impact,particularly on the promotion of resilience in the eastern region and non-grain-producing areas and on high-level agricultural economies,also shows regional and technological variations.

Resilience, reliability and risk analyses of maize, sorghum and sunflower in rain-fed systems using a soil moisture modeling approach

This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.

Cyber Resilience through Real-Time Threat Analysis in Information Security

This paper examines how cybersecurity is developing and how it relates to more conventional information security. Although information security and cyber security are sometimes used synonymously, this study contends that they are not the same. The concept of cyber security is explored, which goes beyond protecting information resources to include a wider variety of assets, including people [1]. Protecting information assets is the main goal of traditional information security, with consideration to the human element and how people fit into the security process. On the other hand, cyber security adds a new level of complexity, as people might unintentionally contribute to or become targets of cyberattacks. This aspect presents moral questions since it is becoming more widely accepted that society has a duty to protect weaker members of society, including children [1]. The study emphasizes how important cyber security is on a larger scale, with many countries creating plans and laws to counteract cyberattacks. Nevertheless, a lot of these sources frequently neglect to define the differences or the relationship between information security and cyber security [1]. The paper focus on differentiating between cybersecurity and information security on a larger scale. The study also highlights other areas of cybersecurity which includes defending people, social norms, and vital infrastructure from threats that arise from online in addition to information and technology protection. It contends that ethical issues and the human factor are becoming more and more important in protecting assets in the digital age, and that cyber security is a paradigm shift in this regard [1].

Development of family resilience models

Family resilience is not the sum of the individual psychological resilience of each of the family members,but the family itself as a unit of resilience research.The representative models of family stress tolerance theory mainly include Mc Cubbin's series of family stress tolerance models and Walsh's family stress tolerance framework,which are widely used in the practice of family therapy.In the future,empirical studies on family resilience should be strengthened,measurement tools with high reliability and validity should be established,and the combination of family resilience theory and community-based practice should be promoted.

Resilience based importance measure analysis for SoS

In a system of systems(SoS),resilience is an important factor in maintaining the functionality,stability,and enhancing the operation effectiveness.From the perspective of resilience,this paper studies the importance of the SoS,and a resilience-based importance measure analysis is conducted to provide suggestions in the design and optimization of the structure of the SoS.In this paper,the components of the SoS are simplified as four kinds of network nodes:sensor,decision point,influencer,and target.In this networked SoS,the number of operation loops is used as the performance indicator,and an approximate algorithm,which is based on eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix,is proposed to calculate the number of operation loops.In order to understand the performance change of the SoS during the attack and defense process in the operations,an integral resilience model is proposed to depict the resilience of the SoS.From different perspectives of enhancing the resilience,different measures,parameters and the corresponding algorithms for the resilience importance of components are proposed.Finally,a case study on an SoS is conducted to verify the validity of the network modelling and the resiliencebased importance analysis method.

A benchmark city for seismic resilience assessment

The concept of seismic resilience has received significant attention from academia and industry during the last two decades. Different frameworks have been proposed for seismic resilience assessment of engineering systems at different scales(e.g., buildings, bridges, communities, and cities). Testbeds including Centerville virtual community(CVC), Memphis testbed(MTB), and the virtual city of Turin, Italy(VC-TI) have been developed during the last decade. However, the resilience assessment results of Chinese cities still require calibration based on a unified evaluation model. Therefore, a geographic information system(GIS)-based benchmark model of a medium-sized city located in the southeastern coastal region of China was developed. The benchmark city can be used to compare existing assessment frameworks and calibrate the assessment results. The demographics, site conditions, and potential hazard exposure of the benchmark city, as well as land use and building inventory are described in this paper. Data of lifeline systems are provided, including power, transportation, water, drainage, and natural gas distribution networks, as well as the locations of hospitals, emergency shelters, and schools. Data from past earthquakes and the literature were obtained to develop seismic fragility models, consequence models, and recovery models, which can be used as basic data or calibration data in the resilience assessment process. To demonstrate the completeness of the data included in the benchmark city, a case study on the accessibility of emergency rescue after earthquakes was conducted, and the preliminary results were discussed. The ultimate goal of this benchmark city is to provide a platform for calibrating resilience assessment results and to facilitate the development of resilient cities in China.

Towards optimal recovery scheduling for dynamic resilience of networked infrastructure

Prior research on the resilience of critical infrastructure usually utilizes the network model to characterize the structure of the components so that a quantitative representation of resilience can be obtained. Particularly, network component importance is addressed to express its significance in shaping the resilience performance of the whole system. Due to the intrinsic complexity of the problem, some idealized assumptions are exerted on the resilience-optimization problem to find partial solutions. This paper seeks to exploit the dynamic aspect of system resilience, i.e., the scheduling problem of link recovery in the post-disruption phase.The aim is to analyze the recovery strategy of the system with more practical assumptions, especially inhomogeneous time cost among links. In view of this, the presented work translates the resilience-maximization recovery plan into the dynamic decisionmaking of runtime recovery option. A heuristic scheme is devised to treat the core problem of link selection in an ongoing style.Through Monte Carlo simulation, the link recovery order rendered by the proposed scheme demonstrates excellent resilience performance as well as accommodation with uncertainty caused by epistemic knowledge.

Analyzing Industrial Structure Evolution of Old Industrial Cities Using Evolutionary Resilience Theory：A Case Study in Shenyang of China

The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities, and applied the framework to a case study in Shenyang. The following conclusions are drawn. First, since 1978, Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has shown fluctuation between ‘contraction-expansion'. As the secondary industry has a much stronger expansionary and contractionary capacity for growth, this results in lacking stability leading to industrial structure transformation. Second, since 1999, the orientation towards a high-end manufacturing industry in Shenyang has weakened, and the evolution of the new and old growth path is characterized by low-end orientation. Third, since 2007, Shenyang's industrial innovation output capacity has dropped sharply which has been significantly affected by scientific and technological personnel and enterprise-owed science and technology institutions and to a less extent by R&D expenditure. We applied the resilience theory to study the industrial evolution of an old industrial city, explored new study perspectives on industrial evolution and verified the applicability of the resilience theory. This paper provides a scientific reference for understanding the recent deceleration in economic growth in the Northeast old industrial base, and for exploring new paths toward revitalization.

复原力(resilience)研究的回顾

复原力是始于探讨良好适应、易感性、因应和抗压力的研究而逐渐形成的。从复原力研究的缘起、界定、保护机制及其理论模型四方面对具体研域的研究进展进行梳理和回顾。促使人们从多角度审视压力/逆境与心理发展的关系,并以积极的视角看待压力/逆境与复原力的关系。

Numerical implementation of suction-dependent resilient modulus constitutive model for subgrade granular material

In order to investigate the suction-dependent properties of subgrade granular material and its effect on pavement responses,coupled hydro-mechanical simulations were conducted in Abaqus.A suction-dependent resilient modulus model was integrated into the commercial finite element(FE)code Abaqus by developing a user-defined material(UMAT)subroutine.The developed model was validated by triaxial test results under different suction conditions and good agreement was achieved.A three-dimensional(3D)FE pavement model was established and the suction-dependent properties of subgrade granular material was characterized by the developed constitutive model.Hydro-mechanical pavement responses subjected to three moisture states and the falling weight deflectometer(FWD)load were calculated.Simulation results reveal that the resilient modulus of subgrade granular material is sensitive to suction and stress states;high groundwater table decreases the overall resilient moduli of subgrade structure due to suction reduction,leading to the increase of the maximum surface deflection,the tensile strain at bottom of the surface layer,compressive strain on top of subgrade,and consequently,deterioration in pavement performance.

Temporal and spatial responses of ecological resilience to climate change and human activities in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China

In the Anthropocene era,human activities have become increasingly complex and diversified.The natural ecosystems need higher ecological resilience to ensure regional sustainable development due to rapid urbanization and industrialization as well as other intensified human activities,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.In the study,we chose the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains(EBNSTM)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China as a case study.By collecting geographic data and statistical data from 2010 and 2020,we constructed an ecological resilience assessment model based on the ecosystem habitat quality(EHQ),ecosystem landscape stability(ELS),and ecosystem service value(ESV).Further,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ecological resilience in the EBNSTM from 2010 to 2020 by spatial autocorrelation analysis,and explored its responses to climate change and human activities using the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model.The results showed that the ecological resilience of the EBNSTM was at a low level and increased from 0.2732 to 0.2773 during 2010–2020.The spatial autocorrelation analysis of ecological resilience exhibited a spatial heterogeneity characteristic of"high in the western region and low in the eastern region",and the spatial clustering trend was enhanced during the study period.Desert,Gobi and rapidly urbanized areas showed low level of ecological resilience,and oasis and mountain areas exhibited high level of ecological resilience.Climate factors had an important impact on ecological resilience.Specifically,average annual temperature and annual precipitation were the key climate factors that improved ecological resilience,while average annual evapotranspiration was the main factor that blocked ecological resilience.Among the human activity factors,the distance from the main road showed a negative correlation with ecological resilience.Both night light index and PM2.5 concentration were negatively correlated with ecological resilience in the areas with better ecological conditions,whereas in the areas with poorer ecological conditions,the correlations were positive.The research findings could provide a scientific reference for protecting the ecological environment and promoting the harmony and stability of the human-land relationship in arid and semi-arid areas.

Resilience to the effects of social stress on vulnerability to developing drug addiction

We review the still scarce but growing literature on resilience to the effects of social stress on the rewarding properties of drugs of abuse.We define the concept of resilience and how it is applied to the field of drug addiction research.We also describe the internal and external protective factors associated with resilience,such as individual behavioral traits and social support.We then explain the physiological response to stress and how it is modulated by resilience factors.In the subsequent section,we describe the animal models commonly used in the study of resilience to social stress,and we focus on the effects of chronic social defeat(SD),a kind of stress induced by repeated experience of defeat in an agonistic encounter,on different animal behaviors(depression-and anxiety-like behavior,cognitive impairment and addiction-like symptoms).We then summarize the current knowledge on the neurobiological substrates of resilience derived from studies of resilience to the effects of chronic SD stress on depressionand anxiety-related behaviors in rodents.Finally,we focus on the limited studies carried out to explore resilience to the effects of SD stress on the rewarding properties of drugs of abuse,describing the current state of knowledge and suggesting future research directions.