A novel fractional grey forecasting model with variable weighted buffer operator and its application in forecasting China's crude oil consumption

Oil is an important strategic material and civil energy.Accurate prediction of oil consumption can provide basis for relevant departments to reasonably arrange crude oil production,oil import and export,and optimize the allocation of social resources.Therefore,a new grey model FENBGM(1,1)is proposed to predict oil consumption in China.Firstly,the grey effect of the traditional GM(1,1)model was transformed into a quadratic equation.Four different parameters were introduced to improve the accuracy of the model,and the new initial conditions were designed by optimizing the initial values by weighted buffer operator.Combined with the reprocessing of the original data,the scheme eliminates the random disturbance effect,improves the stability of the system sequence,and can effectively extract the potential pattern of future development.Secondly,the cumulative order of the new model was optimized by fractional cumulative generation operation.At the same time,the smoothness rate quasi-smoothness condition was introduced to verify the stability of the model,and the particle swarm optimization algorithm(PSO)was used to search the optimal parameters of the model to enhance the adaptability of the model.Based on the above improvements,the new combination prediction model overcomes the limitation of the traditional grey model and obtains more accurate and robust prediction results.Then,taking the petroleum consumption of China's manufacturing industry and transportation,storage and postal industry as an example,this paper verifies the validity of FENBGM(1,1)model,analyzes and forecasts China's crude oil consumption with several commonly used forecasting models,and uses FENBGM(1,1)model to forecast China's oil consumption in the next four years.The results show that FENBGM(1,1)model performs best in all cases.Finally,based on the prediction results of FENBGM(1,1)model,some reasonable suggestions are put forward for China's oil consumption planning.

Inconsistent seasonal variation of antibiotics between surface water and groundwater in the Jianghan Plain:Risks and linkage to land uses

Antibiotics are widely used in humans and animals,but their transformation from surface water to groundwater and the impact of land uses on them remain unclear.In this study,14 antibioticswere systematically surveyed in a complex agricultural area in Central China.Results indicated that the selected antibiotic concentrations in surface waters were higher in winter(average:32.7 ng/L)than in summer(average:17.9 ng/L),while the seasonal variation in groundwaters showed an opposite trend(2.2 ng/L in dry winter vs.8.0 ng/L in summer).Macrolides were the predominant antibiotics in this area,with a detected frequency of over 90%.A significant correlation between surface water and groundwater antibiotics was only observed in winter(R^(2)=0.58).This study further confirmed the impact of land uses on these contaminants,with optimal buffer radii of 2500 m in winter and 500 m in summer.Risk assessment indicated that clarithromycin posed high risks in this area.Overall,this study identified the spatiotemporal variability of antibiotics in a typical agricultural area in Central China and revealed the impact of land uses on antibiotic pollution in aquatic environments.