In Morocco,business failures will grow by 4%in 2019,according to the latest Euler Hermes report.The international credit insurer has placed Morocco in the category of countries that will suffer a deterioration.After T...In Morocco,business failures will grow by 4%in 2019,according to the latest Euler Hermes report.The international credit insurer has placed Morocco in the category of countries that will suffer a deterioration.After Turkey,Morocco posted the second most important degradation of the category.Already high in 2017(12%),the aggravation of the failures of Moroccan companies exceeds by 10%the level of the period 2003-2007 which places the kingdom among the most exposed countries.A situation that is the exact opposite of the global trend since business failures will have to decline according to Euler Hermes,notably thanks to the improvement in the global economic situation.This research is a response to the calls of many authors who urge testing conceptual frameworks,even the most elaborated,in an international context.It is also a continuation of the pioneering work on the business failures,with an original perspective on examining the determinants of the companies based in a developing country.The determinants of the failures have been the subject of many conceptual and empirical developments without a consensus emerging from this research.To do so,four of the most recurrent mechanisms in Western investigations that lead to a business failure have been put to test:business failure,managerial behavior,business sector,and age of the firm and its legal form.The empirical study was conducted through a questionnaire sent to companies and/or managers of the defaulting companies already identified with the Casablanca Commercial Court.Results show that the age of manager,personal skills,and the managerial skills are the main determinants of the business failures.展开更多
The increase of competition, economic recession and financial crises has increased business failure and depending on this the researchers have attempted to develop new approaches which can yield more correct and more ...The increase of competition, economic recession and financial crises has increased business failure and depending on this the researchers have attempted to develop new approaches which can yield more correct and more reliable results. The classification and regression tree （CART） is one of the new modeling techniques which is developed for this purpose. In this study, the classification and regression trees method is explained and tested the power of the financial failure prediction. CART is applied for the data of industry companies which is trade in Istanbul Stock Exchange （ISE） between 1997-2007. As a result of this study, it has been observed that, CART has a high predicting power of financial failure one, two and three years prior to failure, and profitability ratios being the most important ratios in the prediction of failure.展开更多
文摘In Morocco,business failures will grow by 4%in 2019,according to the latest Euler Hermes report.The international credit insurer has placed Morocco in the category of countries that will suffer a deterioration.After Turkey,Morocco posted the second most important degradation of the category.Already high in 2017(12%),the aggravation of the failures of Moroccan companies exceeds by 10%the level of the period 2003-2007 which places the kingdom among the most exposed countries.A situation that is the exact opposite of the global trend since business failures will have to decline according to Euler Hermes,notably thanks to the improvement in the global economic situation.This research is a response to the calls of many authors who urge testing conceptual frameworks,even the most elaborated,in an international context.It is also a continuation of the pioneering work on the business failures,with an original perspective on examining the determinants of the companies based in a developing country.The determinants of the failures have been the subject of many conceptual and empirical developments without a consensus emerging from this research.To do so,four of the most recurrent mechanisms in Western investigations that lead to a business failure have been put to test:business failure,managerial behavior,business sector,and age of the firm and its legal form.The empirical study was conducted through a questionnaire sent to companies and/or managers of the defaulting companies already identified with the Casablanca Commercial Court.Results show that the age of manager,personal skills,and the managerial skills are the main determinants of the business failures.
文摘The increase of competition, economic recession and financial crises has increased business failure and depending on this the researchers have attempted to develop new approaches which can yield more correct and more reliable results. The classification and regression tree （CART） is one of the new modeling techniques which is developed for this purpose. In this study, the classification and regression trees method is explained and tested the power of the financial failure prediction. CART is applied for the data of industry companies which is trade in Istanbul Stock Exchange （ISE） between 1997-2007. As a result of this study, it has been observed that, CART has a high predicting power of financial failure one, two and three years prior to failure, and profitability ratios being the most important ratios in the prediction of failure.
