继在南极中山站建成我国南极首个永久性验潮站后,2012年1月在南极长城站又建成了我国南极第二个永久性验潮站。通过对长城站验潮站相关数据进行分析处理,得到了验潮基准系统的水准网平差结果和验潮仪零点标定结果,以及长城站附近海域海...继在南极中山站建成我国南极首个永久性验潮站后,2012年1月在南极长城站又建成了我国南极第二个永久性验潮站。通过对长城站验潮站相关数据进行分析处理,得到了验潮基准系统的水准网平差结果和验潮仪零点标定结果,以及长城站附近海域海洋潮汐170个分潮的调和常数,并据此进行了潮汐预报,同时分析了长城站潮汐余水位的变化特征,探讨了利用附近的Antarctic Base Prat验潮站的余水位改正长城站潮汐预报的可行性,结果表明使用Antarctic Base Prat验潮站余水位改正长城站潮汐预报,可以显著提高长城站验潮站潮汐预报的精度,余水位改正后2014时段的潮汐预报中误差为±3.42 cm,明显好于改正前的预报中误差±10.43 cm。展开更多
This present work falls within the context of efforts that have been made over the past many years, aimed in improving the seismic vulnerability modelling of structures when using historical data. The historical data ...This present work falls within the context of efforts that have been made over the past many years, aimed in improving the seismic vulnerability modelling of structures when using historical data. The historical data describe the intensity and the damages, but do not give information about the vulnerability, since only in the ’90 the concept of vulnerability classes was introduced through the EMS92 and EMS98 scales. Considering EMS98 definitions, RISK-UE project derived a method for physical damage estimation. It introduced an analytical equation as a function of an only one parameter (Vulnerability Index), which correlates the seismic input, in term of Macroseismic Intensity, with the physical damage. In this study, we propose a methodology that uses optimization algorithms allowing a combination of theoretical-based with expert opinion-based assessment data. The objective of this combination is to estimate the optimal Vulnerability Index that fits the historical data, and hence, to give the minimum error in a seismic risk scenario. We apply the proposed methodology to the El Asnam earthquake (1980), but this approach remains general and can be extrapolated to any other region, and more, it can be applied to predictive studies (before each earthquake scenarios). The mathematical formulation gives choice for regarding, to the optic of minimizing the error, either for the: 1) very little damaged building (D0-D2 degree) or 2) highly damaged building (D4-D5 degree). These two different kinds of optics are adapted for the people who make organizational decisions as for mitigation measures and urban planning in the first case and civil protection and urgent action after a seismic event in the second case. The insight is used in the framework of seismic scenarios and offers advancing of damage estimation for the area in which no recent data, or either no data regarding vulnerability, are available.展开更多
文摘继在南极中山站建成我国南极首个永久性验潮站后,2012年1月在南极长城站又建成了我国南极第二个永久性验潮站。通过对长城站验潮站相关数据进行分析处理,得到了验潮基准系统的水准网平差结果和验潮仪零点标定结果,以及长城站附近海域海洋潮汐170个分潮的调和常数,并据此进行了潮汐预报,同时分析了长城站潮汐余水位的变化特征,探讨了利用附近的Antarctic Base Prat验潮站的余水位改正长城站潮汐预报的可行性,结果表明使用Antarctic Base Prat验潮站余水位改正长城站潮汐预报,可以显著提高长城站验潮站潮汐预报的精度,余水位改正后2014时段的潮汐预报中误差为±3.42 cm,明显好于改正前的预报中误差±10.43 cm。
文摘This present work falls within the context of efforts that have been made over the past many years, aimed in improving the seismic vulnerability modelling of structures when using historical data. The historical data describe the intensity and the damages, but do not give information about the vulnerability, since only in the ’90 the concept of vulnerability classes was introduced through the EMS92 and EMS98 scales. Considering EMS98 definitions, RISK-UE project derived a method for physical damage estimation. It introduced an analytical equation as a function of an only one parameter (Vulnerability Index), which correlates the seismic input, in term of Macroseismic Intensity, with the physical damage. In this study, we propose a methodology that uses optimization algorithms allowing a combination of theoretical-based with expert opinion-based assessment data. The objective of this combination is to estimate the optimal Vulnerability Index that fits the historical data, and hence, to give the minimum error in a seismic risk scenario. We apply the proposed methodology to the El Asnam earthquake (1980), but this approach remains general and can be extrapolated to any other region, and more, it can be applied to predictive studies (before each earthquake scenarios). The mathematical formulation gives choice for regarding, to the optic of minimizing the error, either for the: 1) very little damaged building (D0-D2 degree) or 2) highly damaged building (D4-D5 degree). These two different kinds of optics are adapted for the people who make organizational decisions as for mitigation measures and urban planning in the first case and civil protection and urgent action after a seismic event in the second case. The insight is used in the framework of seismic scenarios and offers advancing of damage estimation for the area in which no recent data, or either no data regarding vulnerability, are available.
